NCAA Tournament 2017: Stock Watch for Bubble Teams at Week 16
Trying to make sense of the 2017 NCAA tournament bubble is like trying to follow most of the things Bill Walton says during a broadcast. It's fun in small doses, but prolonged exposure is bound to result in adverse side effects, such as uncontrollable laughter, utter confusion and an infatuation with the Conference of Champions.
With February soon drawing to a close, the bubble is supposed to be shrinking. Teams projected for No. 7 and No. 8 seeds ought to be virtually locked into the field while teams clinging for dear life to at-large dreams fall to the wayside on a daily basis.
But, if anything, the bubble has only grown larger in the past week. Teams like South Carolina, TCU and Northwestern are moving in the wrong direction while Illinois, Providence and Vanderbilt have jumped onto the bubble out of seemingly nowhere.
At least teams like Clemson, Georgetown and Indiana are finally dead and buried, though, right? (Right?!)
Using Monday night's projected bracket as a loose guide for who is and isn't on the bubble, these are the up-in-the-air teams that have moved up or down the most since our Feb. 15 bubble stock watch.
Be sure to note this isn't meant to cover every squad on the bubble. For instance, Syracuse is smack-dab on the cut line, but Saturday's bad loss to Georgia Tech and Wednesday's big win over Duke more or less cancel each other out, leaving the Orange in a similar position to one week ago.
We're only looking for the teams that have moved the needle with their recent results.
Stock Up: Miami Hurricanes
1 of 14
Computer Resume: 19-8, RPI: 37, KP: 29, SOS: 53
Recent Games: W 71-65 vs. Clemson; W 54-48 (OT) at Virginia
Position in Monday's Bracket: No. 10 Seed
Because of a pathetic nonconference profile (NC SOS: 251; Best Wins: Stanford and George Washington), Miami entered ACC play as a team that likely needs to win at least 10 conference games in order to dance. After a 2-4 start with losses to Syracuse and Wake Forest, that didn't seem to be a likely outcome.
However, the Hurricanes have been on fire for the past month, going 7-2 with wins over North Carolina, Virginia, Clemson and Virginia Tech. Even the losses during that time (Florida State and Louisville) have been forgivable. In fact, Miami's only loss all year to a team outside the RPI Top 50 was the aforementioned game against Syracuse in early January.
Fifth-year senior Kamari Murphy led the Hurricanes in victories over Clemson and Virginia. He entered the week without a double-double in his previous 12 games, but he had 25 points and 20 rebounds between the two slow-tempo wins.
The 'Canes are now 9-6 in ACC play with a solid overall resume. As long as they can win one of their final three games, they'll make the NCAA tournament with room to spare.
Unfortunately, not one of those contests will be easy. They host Duke on Saturday before road games against Virginia Tech and Florida State.
Even if they lose all three, they will enter Selection Sunday without a single loss to a team outside the RPI Top 100—provided Syracuse (RPI: 86) remains in the top 100 and provided Miami doesn't lose to N.C. State or Boston College in the ACC tournament. Coupled with the wins over UNC and UVA, that should be enough. The Hurricanes would be able to rest easier, though, by just getting a 10th ACC W.
Stock Down: South Carolina Gamecocks
2 of 14
Computer Resume: 19-8, RPI: 30, KP: 30, SOS: 34
Recent Games: L 62-71 at Vanderbilt; L 66-81 at Florida
Position in Monday's Bracket: No. 8 Seed
Teams that are new to the bubble usually fit that description in a good way. Over the past month or so, we've seen the likes of Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Georgetown, Marquette, Tennessee and Vanderbilt sneak into the conversation for an at-large bid following a couple of quality wins.
South Carolina, on the other hand, has lost its way onto the bubble.
It all started with the four-overtime loss to Alabama back in early February. Prior to that game, the Gamecocks were 19-4 overall and were alone in first place in the SEC. But they have now lost four of their last five and find themselves in an all-too-familiar position of blowing a fantastic start to the season.
Last year, South Carolina won its first 15 games and was still sitting at a solid 21-3 in mid-February before losing five of the next eight and missing the NCAA tournament. At least the Gamecocks played a more respectable nonconference schedule this year, but early wins over Monmouth, Vermont, Michigan and Syracuse will be of little consolation if they lose any of their remaining games against Tennessee, Mississippi State and Ole Miss.
What they need in order to avoid those losses is for P.J. Dozier to show back up. During one nine-game stretch earlier this season, the sophomore guard averaged 19.7 points, shot 43.9 percent from three-point range and recorded 2.6 steals per game. Over the last four games, though, he's averaging 9.0 points and 0.8 steals while shooting 14.3 percent from beyond the arc.
South Carolina has played eight games against teams in the RPI 45-60 range, so it's hard to say how many such wins they'll carry into Selection Sunday. The only great win this team has, though, is a home game against Florida. Will that be enough if they end up with five or six losses to teams outside the RPI Top 50?
Stock Up: Iowa State Cyclones
3 of 14
Computer Resume: 18-9, RPI: 38, KP: 24, SOS: 44
Recent Games: W 84-71 vs. TCU; W 82-80 (OT) at Texas Tech
Position in Monday's Bracket: No. 8 Seed
Between the Miami Hurricanes and the Iowa State Cyclones, it was a solid week for natural disasters on the bubble.
Like Miami, Iowa State was led by a fifth-year senior. Naz Mitrou-Long had a great pair of games, shooting 11-of-19 from three-point range against the Horned Frogs and Red Raiders. He has always been a good shooter, but he spent most of his career as one of the last options in Iowa State's offense. In conference play this year, though, Mitrou-Long has become the go-to scorer for the Cyclones, averaging 17.2 points per game.
Iowa State has now won four in a row, improving to 10-5 in Big 12 play in the process of finishing off season sweeps of Oklahoma, Kansas State and Texas Tech. The Cyclones only have one victory against the RPI Top 25, but that road win over RPI No. 1 Kansas is one heck of a lone marquee victory to have.
But aside from a neutral-court win over Miami, the best thing Iowa State did during the nonconference portion of the season was lose by a deuce to Gonzaga. This team's second-best win outside of Big 12 play was a home game against 15-14 Mount St. Mary's. Factoring in the bad losses to Iowa and Texas, we aren't quite ready to declare the Cyclones a lock for the NCAA tournament—even though their worst-case scenario is a top-five finish in the Big 12 with an 18-13 record.
Their remaining schedule is brutal. They host Baylor and Oklahoma State before finishing the regular season at West Virginia. And there's a good chance they will draw Oklahoma State again in the No. 4 vs. No. 5 quarterfinal of the Big 12 tournament. Win any of those four games, though, and Iowa State will get to go dancing for a sixth straight season.
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Stock Down: Texas Tech Red Raiders
4 of 14
Computer Resume: 17-11, RPI: 100, KP: 35, SOS: 87
Recent Games: L 74-83 (2 OT) at West Virginia; L 80-82 (OT) vs. Iowa State
Position in Monday's Bracket: On the Horizon
If a spot existed on tournament resumes for how badly bracketologists feel for a team, Texas Tech would be No. 1 without a close runner-up.
The Red Raiders are 3-6 in the past month, despite a scoring margin of plus-6 during that time. Assuming we can agree that a nine-point loss in double overtime is effectively a one-possession game, each of their last six losses has come by a margin of four points or fewer.
With just a few different bounces, we'd be talking about Chris Beard for national coach of the year for his work with a 23-5 team surging as a projected No. 4 seed.
Instead, Texas Tech has 11 losses, a 5-10 conference record and RPI and SOS ranks that make it laughable we're still willing to mention this team as a bubble candidate.
For all intents and purposes, Texas Tech is done. The home wins over Baylor and West Virginia look nice, but even if the Red Raiders win their three remaining games (at Oklahoma State, vs. Texas, at Kansas State), they'll have an 8-10 conference record to go along with a nonconference SOS that ranks 338th. From there, they would probably need to win two games against whichever combination of Baylor, West Virginia and Iowa State ends up with the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in the Big 12 tournament.
This team has proved repeatedly it is good enough to beat anyone, but winning five straight games would require a seismic shift in luck from the past few weeks.
Stock Up: Marquette Golden Eagles
5 of 14
Computer Resume: 17-10, RPI: 71, KP: 33, SOS: 62
Recent Games: W 83-61 vs. Xavier; W 93-71 vs. St. John's
Position in Monday's Bracket: No. 10 Seed
At this point, we might as well be picking petals off a flower while repeating "Marquette is in; Marquette is out."
The Golden Eagles have not had a three-game winning or losing streak since December. Immediately after consecutive January wins over Creighton and Villanova that appeared to turn their season around, they lost back-to-back games to Providence and St. John's.
This week, they went the opposite direction. Following an 18-point loss to Georgetown that looked like one of the final nails in their at-large coffin, the Golden Eagles bounced back with two straight 22-point wins over Xavier and St. John's.
Granted, both games were played at home, and the already short-handed Musketeers were in dire straits without Trevon Bluiett. But Marquette dominated a pair of games it desperately needed to win. Freshman Markus Howard had 34 points in the win over Xavier. Fellow freshman Sam Hauser—who was held scoreless in 33 minutes against Xavier—had a team-high 19 points with eight rebounds and four steals in the win over St. John's.
Star big man Luke Fischer barely played in either game due to foul trouble, and Marquette still won by a wide enough margin to play its walk-ons at the end.
The RPI remains a major concern, but at least the Golden Eagles are done playing St. John's and DePaul. Both to fix that RPI and get enough Big East wins to make up for a pathetic nonconference schedule (SOS: 248), they probably need to win two of their remaining three games—at Providence, at Xavier, vs. Creighton. But after wins over Xavier and St. John's, at least the mandate is now two out of three rather than four out of five.
Stock Down: Northwestern Wildcats
6 of 14
Computer Resume: 20-8, RPI: 43, KP: 39, SOS: 64
Recent Games: W 69-65 vs. Rutgers; L 61-68 at Illinois
Position in Monday's Bracket: No. 8 Seed
When the Wildcats were 18-4, it seemed like all they needed to do was avoid losing to Illinois or Rutgers. Even if they lost every other game, beating those opponents would get them to 21-10 overall with a 10-8 Big Ten record and no bad losses. That's a sure-fire tournament resume.
Instead, Northwestern was swept by Illinois and barely escaped with a home win over Rutgers, remaining in a little bit of bubble trouble with three regular-season games remaining.
The first loss to Illinois—though it came at home—wasn't a huge deal. It was a close game that the Wildcats played without Scottie Lindsey, their leading scorer and one of their best defenders. But losing by 16 with Lindsey—who scored two points on 11 shots—was disturbing. Between the two losses to the Illini, Sanjay Lumpkin played 54 scoreless minutes with four rebounds and six fouls. Yikes.
But at least in between those two losses, Northwestern picked up what is by far its best win of the season: at Wisconsin. And with Illinois surging onto the bubble, those losses don't look quite as bad as they could have. Still, it has been about a month since people started trying to say Northwestern is a lock for the NCAA tournament, and that still isn't true.
Unless they're comfortable with still sitting on the bubble during the Big Ten tournament, the Wildcats will need to win at least one of these final three games: at Indiana, vs. Michigan, vs. Purdue. Each one is pretty much a coin flip, which means there's about a 1-in-8 chance they lose all three to fall to 9-9 in conference play.
Usually, going .500 in the Big Ten is enough for a bid, but try telling that to Ohio State, which was left out with an 11-7 record last year.
Stock Up: Illinois Fighting Illini
7 of 14
Computer Resume: 15-12, RPI: 59, KP: 66, SOS: 12
Recent Games: W 70-66 at Iowa; W 66-50 vs. Northwestern
Position in Monday's Bracket: Not Mentioned
Just a little over two weeks ago, Illinois was 13-11 overall and 3-8 in the Big Ten. Its only RPI Top 50 win of the season was a neutral-court affair in which VCU played arguably its worst game in at least eight years. The Illini had a strong SOS and a decent RPI, but there was no good reason to continue entertaining their bubble chances.
Following a pair of wins over Northwestern, though, it's time to take another look at this team.
Illinois still doesn't have an RPI Top 25 win. It was swept by Penn State and lost at home to Winthrop. But from a bird's-eye view, here we have a team in the RPI Top 60 with three RPI Top 50 wins, seven RPI Top 100 wins and no losses to teams outside the RPI Top 100.
It's not a great resume, but if teams like Syracuse, Texas Tech, Indiana and Clemson are still on the bubble, Illinois needs to be in that conversation, too.
If the Illini are to remain in the running for a bid, winning these last three regular-season games (at Nebraska, vs. Michigan State, at Rutgers) to get to .500 in the Big Ten is non-negotiable. But even that probably only gets them into a position where they could play their way in with a win or two in the Big Ten tournament.
Still, Illinois is in better shape than it was a week ago. Sometimes just getting onto the bubble is a significant boost in a team's stock.
Stock Down: Clemson Tigers
8 of 14
Computer Resume: 14-13, RPI: 61, KP: 37, SOS: 17
Recent Games: L 65-71 at Miami; L 70-71 at Virginia Tech
Position in Monday's Bracket: Last Team In
Allow me to begin this one by pointing out that Clemson's rank on KenPom.com is 24 spots better than it is in RPI. Clemson is also No. 37 in ESPN's BPI and No. 40 in Sagarin's rankings.
People who both gripe about Clemson still being on the bubble and complain that RPI is an archaic metric that should be replaced by tempo-free statistics like KenPom and Sagarin need to be told that—in a bracket based on those metrics—Clemson would be comfortably in the field as a No. 10 seed.
But after picking up their 13th loss and falling to 4-11 in the ACC, we all know that's hogwash.
The thin margin of Clemson's losses this week match up with what has been happening to this team all season long. There were a couple of blowouts along the way, but the Tigers are 3-10 in games decided by six points or fewer, including five losses by a one-possession margin.
A couple of weeks ago, they lost by one to Syracuse on a buzzer-beater and lost by two to Duke when they were unable to hit a buzzer-beater of their own. They also lost by one to Virginia Tech this week when Seth Allen drained a three in the final five seconds. If those desperation shots go the opposite way, maybe Clemson would be a projected No. 10 seed after all.
Alas, end-game situations have not been Clemson's friend, and they're all but out of time to turn things around. Even if the Tigers win each of their remaining home games against Florida State, N.C. State and Boston College, it would only get them to 7-11 and would only bring them one more RPI Top 100 win. They probably need to win all three of those games and get at least to the semifinals of the ACC tournament.
Stock Up: Vanderbilt Commodores
9 of 14
Computer Resume: 15-13, RPI: 49, KP: 56, SOS: 2
Recent Games: W 72-67 vs. Texas A&M; W 71-62 vs. South Carolina; W 67-56 at Tennessee
Position in Monday's Bracket: First Five Out
When Vanderbilt lost to Missouri two weekends ago, I figured that was the end of the road. At that time, the Commodores were 12-13 with one terrible loss and only one great win (at Florida). Their strength of schedule was outstanding, but they basically needed to win out to have any chance for an at-large bid.
Three games later, they're halfway to that goal—though the toughest part is yet to come.
Defense has been a struggle for this team all season long. Vanderbilt gave up 95 points to Marquette back in the season opener and allowed Tennessee to score 87 in a 61-possession game in January. Through their first 25 games, they let an opponent average better than one point per possession 16 times.
But for the past seven days, defense has been the strength of the Commodores. Five weeks after allowing Tennessee to average 1.43 points per possession, they held the Volunteers to 0.84 PPP Wednesday night. They also shut down South Carolina's offense—though, who hasn't done that lately? Maybe they were just getting lucky with the long ball, but opponents shot a combined 7-of-42 (16.7 percent) from three-point range against them this week.
The net result is Vanderbilt is back above .500 in SEC play for the first time since early January and is in the RPI Top 50 for the first time all season.
The total number of losses is still a red flag, though, so the Commodores need to keep winning. And that's going to be a challenge with games against Florida and Kentucky still to come.
If they win their home games against Mississippi State and Florida and at least compete in a loss at Kentucky, maybe there's still a chance with a decent run in the SEC tournament. But they probably need to win two more games against the Gators and Wildcats. Whether those come in the regular season or the conference tournament is up to Vanderbilt.
Stock Down: Tennessee Volunteers
10 of 14
Computer Resume: 14-13, RPI: 52, KP: 42, SOS: 10
Recent Games: W 90-70 vs. Missouri; L 56-67 vs. Vanderbilt
Position in Monday's Bracket: First Five Out
A direct consequence of Vanderbilt's sudden rise onto the bubble, Tennessee might be gone for good following its home loss to the Commodores.
The Volunteers simply could not buy a bucket. It took more than 13 minutes for them to get into double figures, starting 2-of-18 from the field while Vanderbilt built up what proved to be an insurmountable lead. Coupled with hideous showings in losses to Mississippi State and Kentucky, it was the third time in six February games that Tennessee failed to average at least 0.85 points per possession.
Tennessee is now 7-8 in SEC play with just the one quality win against Kentucky. The Volunteers also won games against the likes of Kansas State, Vanderbilt, East Tennessee State, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech and Auburn, but those wins aren't good enough to make up for the 13 losses.
Even if they win remaining games against South Carolina, LSU and Alabama, it's going to take a significant run in the SEC tournament for this team to reach the Big Dance.
At least the Vols can find some solace in remembering that this wasn't supposed to be their year. With four freshmen and three sophomores in the primary nine-man rotation, this team is going to be a bigger threat in the next two years.
Stock Up: Seton Hall Pirates
11 of 14
Computer Resume: 16-10, RPI: 48, KP: 59, SOS: 36
Recent Games: L 70-92 vs. Villanova; W 71-64 vs. Xavier
Position in Monday's Bracket: Last Five In
In our Feb. 13 bracket, Seton Hall was the second team out with this mandate: "The Pirates are about to play three consecutive home games against Creighton, Villanova and Xavier. They also close the regular season with a road game against Butler. They need to win at least two of those games to finish .500 in Big East play, but they also need to win two of those games to show they're worthy of a bid."
Though they got their teeth kicked in by Villanova over the weekend, they won the games against Creighton and Xavier and—despite a sub-.500 Big East record—would appear to be comfortably in the field if the season ended today.
Thanks to a combined 47 points from Angel Delgado and Desi Rodriguez in the victory over the Musketeers, Seton Hall now has four RPI Top 50 wins (Creighton, Xavier, California and South Carolina) and only has one loss to a team outside the RPI Top 80 (at St. John's).
[Delgado has now recorded a double-double in 20 of his last 21 games, averaging 16.8 points and 14.0 rebounds since the beginning of December. During that same stretch, Purdue's Caleb Swanigan has averaged 18.7 points and 13.2 rebounds with "only" 17 double-doubles in 21 games. Just saying.]
The Pirates beat the required number of quality opponents and now just need to beat the less-formidable foes. If they can win at DePaul and emerge victorious in their home game against Georgetown, they should be in the NCAA tournament no matter what happens in the season finale against Butler and the Big East tournament. Though, if they get the No. 7 seed in the Big East tournament and draw DePaul in the first round, they would be strongly advised to defeat the Blue Demons for a third time.
Stock Down: TCU Horned Frogs
12 of 14
Computer Resume: 16-11, RPI: 56, KP: 43, SOS: 33
Recent Games: L 71-84 at Iowa State; L 68-87 at Kansas
Position in Monday's Bracket: First Five Out
No one in their right mind expected TCU to win road games against Iowa State or Kansas, but those missed opportunities leave this team up a creek without a paddle.
The Horned Frogs played well in the first half of both games. In fact, with five minutes remaining in the first half, they led Iowa State by three. At the same juncture against Kansas, they were up four. But they were outscored by a combined 39 points the rest of the way, trailing by at least 14 points with five minutes to go in each second half.
They are now 0-7 against the RPI Top 30 and 2-9 against the RPI Top 50, and they only have four RPI Top 100 wins—vs. Illinois State (34), vs. Iowa State (38), vs. Arkansas State (76) and at Kansas State (63). Though there haven't been any horrendous losses, the combination of their lackluster nonconference schedule and 6-9 conference record is making it tough to envision a scenario that includes dancing.
At this point, TCU is in "must-win" mode until further notice. Home wins over West Virginia and Kansas State and a road win over Oklahoma to finish out the regular season may at least temporarily put the Horned Frogs back on the desired side of the bubble. But if any of the other bubble teams capitalize on their opportunities in conference tournaments, TCU will probably need to at least win their Big 12 quarterfinal, as well.
Such is life when your sixth-best win of the season is a home game against Texas Southern.
Stock Up: Providence Friars
13 of 14
Computer Resume: 17-11, RPI: 68, KP: 58, SOS: 37
Recent Games: W 68-66 at Creighton
Position in Monday's Bracket: On the Horizon
The only team on the list to play just one game in the past seven days, Providence used that extra preparation time to score its third consecutive quality win. The Friars needed double-doubles from Rodney Bullock and Kyron Cartwright and a rare mediocre shooting performance from Creighton, but they emerged with a fantastic and dramatic road win over the Bluejays.
Providence showed up on the bubble after back-to-back home wins over Butler and Xavier last week and is somehow suddenly on the verge of crashing the NCAA tournament despite losses to Boston College, St. John's and DePaul.
But only if it keeps winning.
People were quick to jump on Twitter after the win over the Bluejays to point out that Providence now has six RPI Top 50 wins, but three of those came at home against Rhode Island, Seton Hall and Vermont, which are just barely in the Top 50. If we choose a different arbitrary cut line, Providence only has three RPI Top 47 wins—and that doesn't quite make up for the three terrible losses.
Providence finishes the season with a home game against Marquette and rematches with DePaul and St. John's. It must win all three in order to remain in the at-large conversation at the start of the Big East tournament. That would put the Friars at 10-8 in conference play, likely resulting in either the No. 4 or No. 5 seed in the Big East tournament, where they would draw Creighton, Marquette, Xavier or Seton Hall.
Win that quarterfinal before a "quality loss" to Villanova in the semifinal and Providence might sneak into the field.
Stock Down: California Golden Bears
14 of 14
Computer Resume: 18-9, RPI: 39, KP: 47, SOS: 45
Recent Games: L 68-73 at Stanford; L 65-68 vs. Oregon
Position in Monday's Bracket: No. 10 Seed
The Golden Bears had a golden opportunity until Dillon Brooks and Chris Boucher stomped a hole in their hearts.
California was in complete control for most of the night, jumping ahead of Oregon 15-5 in the first nine minutes and leading by as many as 16 points in the second half. It wasn't until late in the game that the Ducks finally came to life. Oregon scored just 34 points in the first 30 minutes before exploding for 34 points in the final 10 minutes, overcoming a double-digit deficit in the final five minutes.
When Brooks drained the game-winning three with 0.2 seconds remaining, it put California back on the heart of the bubble. The Golden Bears are now 1-7 against the RPI Top 50 with a one-point road win over USC and a bunch of close calls against Arizona (twice), Oregon, UCLA, Virginia and Seton Hall.
Basically, they're Clemson if the Tigers had played eight games against quality opponents instead of 14.
Worse than the missed opportunity was the bad loss California suffered at Stanford. Sure, it's a rivalry game, but that doesn't change the fact that the Cardinal have 13 losses and only one other win against the RPI Top 80 (Seton Hall). For a California team that keeps coming up just short in its opportunities for marquee wins, last Friday's result was a brutal one.
The Golden Bears would probably still make the NCAA tournament if it started today, but their cushion is gone. If they lose any of the remaining games against Oregon State, Utah or Colorado or lose in the Pac-12 tournament to any team other than Arizona, Oregon or UCLA, they'll probably miss the dance.
Stats are courtesy of WarrenNolan.com, KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com and are current through the start of play Wednesday, Feb. 22. Win-loss records only include games played against D-I competition.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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