NCAA Tournament 2017: Stock Watch for Bubble Teams at Week 15
The dream of 10 or more ACC teams in the NCAA tournament is beginning to fade, as Syracuse and Wake Forest are among the bubble teams whose stocks have fallen the most in the past week. Georgia Tech would also be on the list for its loss to Miami on Wednesday night, but there are too many other teams that have crashed far worse than the Yellow Jackets have in the past seven days.
We've almost reached the point in the season where we start mentioning time remaining until Selection Sunday in days rather than weeks, which means each game for teams on the bubble is critical. Most teams are down to just four or five games left before their respective conference tournaments, and they all need to get quality wins while avoiding bad losses.
Teams like Providence, Dayton and Virginia Tech have done a fantastic job of that lately, while Rhode Island, Tennessee, Indiana and a few others couldn't have done worse.
Using Monday night's projected bracket as a loose guide for who is and isn't on the bubble, these are the up-in-the-air teams that have moved up or down the most since our Feb. 8 bubble stock watch.
Be sure to note this isn't meant to cover every squad on the bubble. For instance, Miami is smack-dab on the cut line, but losing to Louisville before winning a home game against Georgia Tech did nothing to change the situation the Hurricanes are in.
We're only looking for the teams that have moved the needle with their recent results.
Stock Up: Virginia Tech Hokies
1 of 12
Computer Resume: 18-7, RPI: 32, KP: 50, SOS: 62
Recent Games: W 80-78 vs. Virginia; W 66-63 at Pittsburgh
Position in Monday's Bracket: No. 8 Seed
For a little while there, it looked like Virginia Tech was in danger of falling onto the wrong side of the bubble.
After opening the season 12-1 with a marquee home win over Duke, the Hokies proceeded to lose six of their next 10 games, including what now looks like a dreadful 26-point loss to North Carolina State.
The wins during that six-week stretch were nothing special either. They won home games against Syracuse, Georgia Tech and Boston College and eked out a one-point road victory over Clemson—not one of which is a lock to make the NCAA tournament.
Virginia Tech was 5-6 in ACC play, and its horrendous nonconference SOS (284) was becoming a significant factor.
Despite losing Chris Clarke to a torn ACL in the game against the Cavaliers, tight wins over Virginia and Pittsburgh in the past seven days have put some wind back in the Hokies' sails. They're once again one game over .500 against ACC foes with several winnable games remaining.
They play at Louisville on Saturday—which will most likely be a loss—but they finish the season with three home games against Clemson, Miami and Wake Forest and a road game against Boston College. As long as one of the two losses doesn't come against Boston College, going 3-2 down the stretch should be enough. But the Hokies might want to play it safe and go 4-1, just in case the selection committee plans on making an example out of their nonconference SOS.
Stock Down: Syracuse Orange
2 of 12
Computer Resume: 16-11, RPI: 78, KP: 46, SOS: 45
Recent Games: L 80-75 at Pittsburgh; L 76-72 vs. Louisville
Position in Monday's Bracket: Last Five In
As intoxicating and unlikely as Syracuse's run had been over the past month, the Orange were always in danger of having the bottom fall out. But when you start the season 8-6 with losses to Boston College, St. John's, Connecticut and Georgetown and your two best wins come at home against Monmouth and Eastern Michigan, an uphill battle is the best you can hope for.
Wins over Florida State, Virginia, Wake Forest, Miami and Clemson got Syracuse back on the right track. Even after all that, though, the Orange entered the final six games of their season needing to go at least 3-3 to feel good about their spot in the NCAA tournament.
Following consecutive losses to Pittsburgh and Louisville, that path to 3-3 becomes a quest to win three out of the last four games.
A microcosm of their entire season, the Orange trailed by a significant margin before fighting back to make things interesting. They were down by 13 early in the second half against the Panthers but got back to within four a couple of times before coming up short. They trailed the Cardinals by 14 in the first half before forcing overtime, and they darn near rallied from an eight-point deficit in the final 40 seconds of OT.
The result, however, is two more losses and a need to beat either Duke or Louisville to avoid entering the ACC tournament with at least 13 losses. But given the way things had been going for this team prior to this week, it would be foolish to consider ruling them out of the at-large race anytime soon.
Stock Up: Dayton Flyers
3 of 12
Computer Resume: 19-5, RPI: 28, KP: 32, SOS: 75
Recent Games: W 75-74 at Rhode Island; W 85-63 at Saint Louis
Position in Monday's Bracket: No. 8 Seed
Aside from Gonzaga, Saint Mary's, Cincinnati and SMU, it has been an awful year for teams outside the six power conferences. But for some reason, Archie Miller and Dayton have been immune to that trend.
The Flyers are 8-1 over the past five weeks with a quality road win over Rhode Island and just one, acceptable road loss to VCU.
The win at URI was a minor miracle. Dayton trailed for the majority of the game before Xeyrius Williams drained a pair of three-pointers in the final 20 seconds to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Regardless of how much drama there was at the end, it was a huge win. The season sweep of Rhode Island (RPI: 42) currently serves as Dayton's only RPI Top 50 wins of the year.
One big thing to note for the remainder of the regular season is that this team is playing at full strength for the first time.
Much has been made of Duke's injuries over the past four months, but Dayton played nearly three months without Josh Cunningham, didn't have Kendall Pollard for the first six games and went six out of eight games in the middle of the year without either Charles Cooke, Kyle Davis or Darrell Davis. With all five of those guys healthy, Dayton has a dangerous nine-man rotation.
There are plenty of hurdles remaining. The Flyers have three home games against VCU, George Mason and St. Bonaventure, as well as road games against Davidson and George Washington. All five of those teams have overall records of .500 or better, but the VCU game might be the only one they can afford to lose if they also intend to lose early in the A-10 tournament. But at least because of last Friday's win over Rhode Island, Dayton probably doesn't need to beat VCU in order to make the NCAA tournament.
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Stock Down: Tennessee Volunteers
4 of 12
Computer Resume: 13-12, RPI: 44, KP: 42, SOS: 4
Recent Games: L 76-75 vs. Georgia; L 83-58 at Kentucky
Position in Monday's Bracket: Last Five In
Following consecutive wins over Kentucky and Kansas State in late January, Tennessee shot into the bubble conversation like a circus clown out of a cannon.
The Volunteers entered that four-game winning streak with just eight victories over D-I programs, none better than Georgia Tech or Vanderbilt. But they didn't have any terrible losses, so those back-to-back marquee wins over the two sets of Wildcats carried a ton of weight. Out of nowhere, Tennessee looked like a team that would make the tournament if it could avoid bad losses for five more weeks.
Since then, the Vols have lost three out of four, including a terrible road loss to Mississippi State and an almost equally bad home loss to Georgia. Tennessee led the Bulldogs 53-39 with 15 minutes remaining when J.J. Frazier took the game over. The senior guard either scored or assisted on 12 of Georgia's final 13 field goals, perhaps single-handedly ending Tennessee's at-large dreams.
Had Tennessee won at Kentucky on Tuesday night, all would have been forgiven. However, that didn't come close to happening.
At this point, the Volunteers need to win every remaining regular-season game. They host Missouri, Vanderbilt and Alabama, each of which is just a matter of avoiding a bad loss. The same goes for the road game against LSU. The road game against South Carolina is their one remaining chance at a statement win.
Even that might not be enough. Soft as the bubble may be, 18-12 with little more than wins over Kentucky and South Carolina isn't all that impressive. The Volunteers may still have some mandatory work to do in the SEC tournament.
Stock Up: Georgia Bulldogs
5 of 12
Computer Resume: 14-11, RPI: 52, KP: 51, SOS: 20
Recent Games: W 76-75 at Tennessee, W 79-72 vs. Mississippi State
Position in Monday's Bracket: Not Mentioned
If teams like Clemson, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Indiana, Providence, Tennessee and Georgetown are still in the at-large conversation with at least 11 losses, why not Georgia?
The Bulldogs finally got their first RPI Top 50 victory of the season this week, winning at No. 44 Tennessee. They also have road wins over RPI No. 61 Ole Miss, No. 71 Auburn and No. 76 Georgia Tech. Individually, those games don't do much to move the needle. But taken collectively as part of their seven RPI Top 100 wins, it's a bit impressive.
Moreover, Georgia only has one loss to a team outside the RPI Top 100 (at Oakland) and has battled well against top-notch opponents. The Bulldogs forced overtime at both Florida and Kentucky before coming up short. They were swept by South Carolina, but they lost those two games by a combined margin of eight points. They lost by just 11 to Kansas on a "neutral court" in Kansas City.
Save for the inexplicable 20-point home loss to Alabama a few weeks ago, Georgia has at least been competitive in every game this season.
But that doesn't make the record any less of an eyesore. Though they were close in their five losses to Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina, those L's are contributing to a 6-7 record in a conference that might only send three teams to the NCAA tournament.
The Bulldogs need to win at least four of their final five games to have any chance of dancing. If one of those wins can be Saturday's home game against Kentucky, that would be fantastic. If not, they'll probably need to beat one of the top three teams in the SEC tournament.
Stock Down: Wake Forest Demon Deacons
6 of 12
Computer Resume: 15-11, RPI: 36, KP: 33, SOS: 17
Recent Games: W 88-58 vs. NC State; L 95-83 at Clemson
Position in Monday's Bracket: First Five Out
Is there a more puzzling resume in the country than the one Wake Forest has?
Clemson's resume has come under a ton of scrutiny for hanging around the bubble despite what had been a 3-9 record in ACC play, but at least the Tigers entered the week with three RPI Top 50 wins and eight RPI Top 100 wins and picked up another one of each Tuesday night against Wake Forest.
Pray tell, what have the Demon Deacons done to earn a bid?
After finishing off the wrong end of a season sweep from Clemson, they are now 0-10 against the RPI Top 50 with an 11th loss to Syracuse. Their five best wins of the season have come against Miami, Georgia Tech, College of Charleston, Bucknell and Richmond.
Hate on RPI all you want, but at this point KenPom is higher on Wake Forest then the rating metric people wish to see dead and buried. Even Sagarin and ESPN's BPI both list Wake Forest as a Top 40 team in spite of its lack of quality wins. It's as if everyone is saving a spot in the field for the Demon Deacons for when they finally decide to beat a marquee opponent, but they just keep refusing to do it.
Much like Clemson, it's clear if you watch Wake Forest that this is a good team. Seven of its 11 losses have come by a margin of seven points or fewer, including tight games against Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame and Xavier. John Collins and Bryant Crawford are the most under-appreciated inside-outside duo in the country.
But last time I checked, this isn't horseshoes or hand grenades. Close losses to quality teams help keep you in the conversation, but they must be coupled with the occasional quality victory. Wake Forest needs to win at least two of its final four games (at Duke, vs. Pitt, vs. Louisville, at Virginia Tech) and might need three of those despite the great computer numbers.
Stock Up: Providence Friars
7 of 12
Computer Resume: 16-11, RPI: 68, KP: 60, SOS: 35
Recent Games: W 71-65 vs. Butler; W 75-63 vs. Xavier
Position in Monday's Bracket: On the Horizon
When you're on the bubble, you have to take every opportunity you're given. Providence got a big one Wednesday night against Xavier and capitalized on it—a win that will likely bump the Friars up to around 55 in both RPI and KP.
Six months ago, Xavier was supposed to have a three-headed monster in Trevon Bluiett, Edmond Sumner and Myles Davis. Davis left the team, Sumner tore his ACL and Bluiett didn't play Wednesday due to an ankle injury. Left to rely almost entirely on J.P. Macura and RaShid Gaston, the Musketeers simply didn't have enough firepower to compete at the Dunk.
But what was Butler's excuse? The Bulldogs are as healthy as any team in the country, but they were outplayed by Providence over the weekend.
The Friars now have seven RPI Top 60 wins, but they also have more than their fair share of ugly losses, dropping games to Boston College, DePaul and St. John's.
If they were to lose at Creighton before winning their remaining games against Marquette, St. John's and DePaul, their resume wouldn't much change from what it is now. Would 9-9 in Big East play with a pair of wins against the top four teams be enough for a team that didn't do much during the nonconference portion of the season?
It'd be pretty much the same situation they were in three years ago when they went 20-11 (10-8 in Big East play) with a great win over Creighton, won the Big East tournament and still only got a No. 11 seed. In other words, beating Butler and Xavier was a nice start, but they may want to turn this two-game winning streak into (at least) a six-game run.
Stock Down: Rhode Island Rams
8 of 12
Computer Resume: 16-9, RPI: 42, KP: 43, SOS: 52
Recent Games: L 75-74 vs. Dayton; L 53-43 vs. Fordham
Position in Monday's Bracket: First Five Out
Rhode Island's path to an at-large bid was already an unlikely one. The Rams had a great neutral-court win over Cincinnati back in November, but they hadn't done anything since. In fact, they entered play Wednesday with just one other RPI Top 100 win—a home game against Belmont that also took place in November.
Granted, not one of their losses was particularly bad. They should have won the home game against La Salle and would have been wise to win at least a couple of those road games against Valparaiso, Houston, Providence and Richmond, but they had done a good job of avoiding a resume-killer. Had they finished the season 6-1 with a home win over either Dayton or VCU, they would have been in good shape.
But they lost the home game against Dayton thanks to a pair of late three-pointers from Xeyrius Williams.
That left the Rams' needing to win their final six games to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid. Rather than risk walking that tightrope for two weeks before falling near the end of it, Rhode Island opted to get it over with and jumped to its demise with Wednesday's home loss to 11-15 Fordham.
In the process of scoring 43 points against a team that hadn't held an opponent below 67 in more than a month, the Rams shot 2-of-20 from three-point range and 7-of-15 from the free-throw line, barely finishing with more made field goals (17) than turnovers (14).
How this team scored 76 points in a win over Cincinnati earlier this season is one of life's great mysteries.
Rhode Island's only hope for an at-large bid at this point is to not lose again before the Atlantic 10 championship game, and even that might only be enough to get them back onto the bubble.
Stock Up: Arkansas Razorbacks
9 of 12
Computer Resume: 19-7, RPI: 48, KP: 57, SOS: 74
Recent Games: W 78-70 at LSU; W 83-76 at South Carolina
Position in Monday's Bracket: On the Horizon
Is there a more Jekyll-and-Hyde team in the country than Arkansas?
Last week, the Razorbacks were the ultimate stock down team, snapping Missouri's 13-game losing streak before losing a home game to a 12-13 Vanderbilt team that turned around and also lost to Missouri in its next game. Coupled with the home loss to Mississippi State from early January, it left Arkansas in a surprisingly perilous situation for a major-conference team with just seven losses.
Somehow, that same team came out this week and won road games against LSU and South Carolina.
Beating LSU isn't much of an achievement this season, but it was a step in the right direction. Knocking off South Carolina, however, is a big deal. In that win, JUCO transfers Jaylen Barford and Daryl Macon combined for 36 points while former Texas Tech transfer Dusty Hannahs went for 20 of his own.
The real hero of the game was homegrown Manuale Watkins. The senior from Fayetteville, Arkansas, only scored six points, but two of them came on this hideous shot with less than 30 seconds remaining to give Arkansas a three-point lead. Shell-shocked that that thing went in, the Gamecocks didn't score again.
Now, here's the long and short of Arkansas' resume: one great win (at South Carolina), three decent wins (at Tennessee, at Vanderbilt, vs. Texas-Arlington) and two horrendous losses (at Missouri, vs. Mississippi State). If the Razorbacks go 4-1 down the stretch with the one loss coming at Florida, that would probably be enough. It's not a great resume by any means, but eight total regular-season losses would give Arkansas an edge over a lot of the teams on the bubble.
One more misstep along the way, though, and it's back into the bubble danger zone.
Stock Down: Indiana Hoosiers
10 of 12
Computer Resume: 15-12, RPI: 91, KP: 49, SOS: 48
Recent Games: L 69-64 vs. Purdue; L 75-63 vs. Michigan; L 75-74 at Minnesota
Position in Monday's Bracket: First Five Out
At this point, it's almost not fair to the teams that are actually on the bubble that we're still talking about an Indiana team that no longer is. But seven days and three losses ago, the Hoosiers still had a realistic path to the NCAA tournament. Thus, they were at least a bubble team in the past week, and we'll take one final opportunity to gripe about how colossal of a disappointment this team has become.
Without question, injuries have been a problem. If we exclude the game against Fort Wayne when OG Anunoby was sick and the loss to Butler in which he was returning from a three-game absence due to an ankle injury, the Hoosiers were 10-4 with him on the floor and have gone 2-6 since losing him for the season to a knee injury. They have also been forced to play multiple games without James Blackmon, Juwan Morgan, Devonte Green, Freddie McSwain and Zach McRoberts.
But no matter how healthy Indiana gets, this team has no point guard. Josh Newkirk is doing the best that he can in that role, but even after several months in the position, he has averaged 2.0 assists and 3.0 turnovers thus far in February. As a result, the entire team has had at least two more turnovers than assists in seven consecutive games.
It's tough to get assists when no one can shoot. Once one of the most lethal three-point shooting teams in the country, Indiana is 32-of-111 (28.8 percent) from downtown in five February games.
Somehow, there's a glimmer of hope. If the lights come back on and Indiana wins four straight against Iowa, Northwestern, Purdue and Ohio State, it would finish the season at 19-12 with a .500 Big Ten record, five RPI Top 50 wins and just that one bad loss to Fort Wayne. If nothing else, that would get the Hoosiers into a position where one or two wins in the Big Ten tournament could get them in.
But if you think this team is winning a home game against Northwestern—let alone a road game against Purdue—we've been watching different Hoosiers.
Stock Up: Northwestern Wildcats
11 of 12
Computer Resume: 19-7, RPI: 35, KP: 31, SOS: 73
Recent Games: W 66-59 at Wisconsin; L 74-64 vs. Maryland
Position in Monday's Bracket: No. 7 Seed
Despite losing three of the past four games while ending up on the wrong side of a career performance from Maryland's Melo Trimble, things are still looking up for Northwestern.
Funny how a road win over Wisconsin can do that.
The Wildcats entered the week in dire need of a quality win, considering its best wins in the first three months of the season came against Dayton and Wake Forest—each of which was mentioned earlier in this list of teams on the bubble. But even without leading scorer Scottie Lindsey (mono), they were able to shut down the Badgers with turnover-free beauty.
Junior point guard Bryant McIntosh was sensational in that win, finishing with 25 points, seven assists and seven rebounds. He has struggled from beyond the arc this year (27.2 percent), but he's still getting it done for this team in a huge way. He's one of the better players in the country that few people seem to recognize.
At this point, Northwestern just needs to avoid terrible losses.
It hosts Rutgers on Saturday before road games against Illinois and Indiana. After that, it's a home game against Michigan before the season finale against Purdue. As long as the Wildcats beat Rutgers and win at least one of those next three games, they should be fine. In other words, if they win each of their next two games, we'll finally feel comfortable using the words "Lock" and "Northwestern" in the same sentence.
Stock Down: Kansas State Wildcats
12 of 12
Computer Resume: 16-10, RPI: 51, KP: 28, SOS: 40
Recent Games: L 85-66 at West Virginia; L 87-79 vs. Iowa State
Position in Monday's Bracket: No. 10 Seed
With two more losses this week, Kansas State has now dropped six of its last seven games and has fallen to 5-8 in Big 12 play. Given the pithy nonconference schedule the Wildcats put together—NC SOS rank of 240, best wins against Colorado State and Green Bay—you would think they'd be all but finished.
However, they have now played 10 consecutive games against teams in the RPI Top 50 and only have one loss this season (at Texas Tech) to a team outside of that group. During those 10 games, Kansas State beat West Virginia at home, won at Oklahoma State and picked up the best possible win a team can get—a road win over RPI No. 1 Baylor.
Even though those are their only three RPI Top 100 wins, they carry a ton of weight.
But what is the acceptable ratio of good wins to total losses? If Kansas State wins remaining games against Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech and loses to Oklahoma State and TCU, would a 3-11 record against the RPI Top 75 do the trick?
A 4-1 finish to get to .500 in Big 12 play with four quality wins and no terrible losses would almost certainly get them in, even with the weak nonconference schedule.
But they'll need to refocus their defensive energy for that to happen. Over the last 11 games, the Wildcats have allowed 766 points on 714 possessions, according to KenPom. Against all logic, the only team they were able to stifle during that stretch was Baylor. They aren't proficient enough on offense to overcome those consistent letdowns on defense.
Stats are courtesy of WarrenNolan.com, KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com and are current through the start of play Wednesday, Feb. 15. Win-loss records only include games played against D-I competition.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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