Ranking the Nation's Top 20 Shooting Guards for 2015-16 NCAA Basketball Season
If you don't love the top three guys on this list, go find another sport.
Oklahoma's Buddy Hield, Virginia's Malcolm Brogdon and Wichita State's Ron Baker are three of the best stories in college basketball. All three seniors were under-recruited in high school. Both Baker and Hield could have left for the NBA last year but decided to return for their senior seasons. And they will all go down as all-time greats in their respective programs.
You could make an argument for each one as a preseason All-American. You could also throw their names in a hat to decide the order in which to rank them.
The formula for these preseason rankings includes past success, opportunity this season and talent. Those three categories are used to try to predict who will be the most productive players in college basketball this season. It's entirely subjective.
The talent pool at this position is deep. Apologies in advance for leaving off your favorite shooting guard.
Just missed the cut: Josh Hart, Villanova; Maodo Lo, Columbia; Tyler Dorsey, Oregon; Isaiah Briscoe, Kentucky; Jevon Carter, West Virginia
This is the second installment in B/R's positional-ranking series for the 2015-16 season. Here are the other positional rankings: the top 20 shooting guards, small forwards, power forwards and centers. And here is the series finale: the top 100 overall players in college basketball.
20. Rasheed Sulaimon, Maryland
1 of 20
Class: Senior
2014-15 Stats (at Duke): 7.5 PPG, 1.8 APG, 1.0 SPG
Rasheed Sulaimon never really lived up to expectations past his freshman season at Duke. The way he played as a freshman led many to believe he had star potential, but he spent his final couple of years in Durham in and out of the doghouse.
A change of scenery could ultimately lead to Sulaimon showing what he was capable of had he kept himself in Mike Krzyzewski's good graces. We know he can shoot and fill it up from the perimeter when given the chance. He showed glimpses of that at Duke. Maryland was already stacked, but his addition could be the missing piece, a reliable outside shooter and secondary ball handler to help out Melo Trimble.
19. Sheldon McClellan, Miami
2 of 20
Class: Senior
2014-15 Stats: 14.5 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.9 APG
At 6'5", Sheldon McClellan is one of the toughest shooting guards to cover in the country. He can score from all three levels and is solid off the catch or the bounce.
McClellan quietly put together a great first season at Miami after transferring from Texas. Angel Rodriguez got more attention, but McClellan was the more consistent of the two. If Rodriguez can be more like the version of himself who torched Duke at Cameron and McClellan replicates his junior year, the Hurricanes could surprise some folks in the ACC and should be a tourney team.
18. James Woodard, Tulsa
3 of 20
Class: Senior
2014-15 Stats: 14.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.1 APG
James Woodard has flown a bit under the radar because he's been at Tulsa and only made one NCAA tournament. But the streaky lefty has been productive on good teams the last two years.
It took some time for the Golden Hurricane to get going last year under new coach Frank Haith, but they finished 14-4 in the American Conference. If not for their crummy nonconference run, they would have been in the NCAA tournament for the second straight year. With all five starters back, including Woodard and fellow senior point guard Shaquille Harrison in the backcourt, Tulsa should get back to the tournament and give Woodard a chance to make his mark in March.
17. Sterling Gibbs, Connecticut
4 of 20
Class: Senior
2014-15 Stats (at Seton Hall): 16.3 PPG, 3.8 APG, 2.1 RPG, 1.2 SPG
Sterling Gibbs is at his third college this season, and he's the ultimate rent-a-player. UConn's system has been ideal for a scoring guard—see Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright—and Gibbs was the best option available on the transfer market.
Gibbs has come a long way from the freshman guard who could barely get on the floor at Texas. He's a professional scorer at this point in his career with a confident shooting stroke—he made 43.6 percent of his threes last season. It's tough to predict how it will all come together for UConn, but if I had to bet on anything with the Huskies this season, it would be that Gibbs does what he was brought there to do: score.
16. Isaiah Cousins, Oklahoma
5 of 20
Class: Senior
Stats: 11.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.2 SPG
Isaiah Cousins is one of the most underappreciated guards in the country, and it's probably because he plays in the shadow of Buddy Hield, Oklahoma's other stud shooting guard.
Hield is unquestionably the star, but Cousins deserves a lot of credit for the ascent of the Sooners. Cousins is the team's best perimeter defender, and OU went from a very average defense his sophomore season to finishing eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency last season, per kenpom.com.
Cousins also wasn't much of a shooter as a freshman, making just 10 threes that year, but last season he made 63 threes and shot 45 percent from deep. Part of what makes the Sooners so good is that if Hield is off, Cousins is capable of carrying the water.
15. Danuel House, Texas A&M
6 of 20
Class: Senior
2014-15 Stats: 14.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.1 APG
Danuel House was allowed to play immediately last season after transferring from Houston, and he nearly helped Texas A&M get back to the NCAA tournament.
House's value was apparent late in the year. He missed the final four games of the season with a foot injury and A&M fell apart, losing three of those games including a bad loss to Auburn in the SEC tournament. Before House got hurt, the Aggies had won 11 of 14 games, and he had scored 18 or more points in seven of those contests.
With a good core returning led by House combined with one of the best recruiting classes in the country, the Aggies should be one of the top teams in the SEC.
14. Damion Lee, Louisville
7 of 20
Class: Senior
2014-15 Stats (at Drexel): 21.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.5 SPG
Damion Lee will be an interesting case study this season. Can a great scorer from a losing, small mid-major team make the jump to a big program and succeed?
Louisville needed scoring after losing Montrezl Harrell and Terry Rozier to the NBA, and the early returns this summer from Louisville's trip to Puerto Rico suggested Lee is legit. He averaged 23.6 points and 6.2 rebounds on the trip.
When you look at Lee's advanced numbers last year as well, they suggest that he wasn't just a chucker on a bad team. He was an efficient scorer who shot well from deep (38.5 percent) and made a living getting to the foul line, where he scored 173 of his points and shot 88.7 percent. If he can do those two things well and have enough energy to play the hellacious full-court defense Rick Pitino demands, he'll be a great fit with the Cardinals.
13. D.J. Balentine, Evansville
8 of 20
Class: Senior
2014-15 Stats: 20.1 PPG, 3.2 APG, 3.2 RPG
D.J. Balentine is not exactly an advanced stats darling—he takes a lot of jumpers inside the arc—but he's mastered the art of the mid-range J, and that's part of the reason he puts up points so consistently.
Balentine is one of those mid-major guys who could transfer and produce. Props to him for staying put at Evansville, where the program has improved each season and could make some noise this year. The Purple Aces won the CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament (CIT) last year, and Balentine has a good sidekick in big man Egidijus Mockevicius. They're not on Wichita State's level, but they should challenge Northern Iowa, Illinois State and Indiana State for second place in the Valley.
12. Stefan Moody, Ole Miss
9 of 20
Class: Senior
2014-15 Stats: 16.6 PPG, 2.4 APG, 3.4 RPG, 1.7 SPG
Stefan Moody has taken over the designated chucker role from Marshall Henderson, and he's a (less noisy) upgrade over Henderson.
Moody can catch fire and is almost unstoppable when he gets in that zone. Moody seemed to be at his best on the big stage as well. He scored 25 points in an overtime loss at Kentucky, and he carried Ole Miss to a win over BYU in the NCAA tourney play-in game, scoring 26 points and dishing out five assists.
Like Henderson, Moody has the occasional game where he'll shoot his team out of it. But usually even when he's not hitting, he'll still produce by getting to the free-throw line, where he shot 90.3 percent as a junior.
11. Grayson Allen, Duke
10 of 20
Class: Sophomore
2014-15 Stats: 4.4 PPG, 1.0 RPG, 0.4 APG, 9.2 MPG
Ranking Grayson Allen this high might be an overreaction to the national championship game? But did you see the championship game?!
Allen was awesome on the biggest stage, showing the exact traits that you want out of a scoring guard. He knocked down perimeter jumpers, and he slashed through Wisconsin's defense and finished at the rim. It also wasn't the only bit of proof that Allen can ball. He gave a sneak peek weeks earlier of what he was capable of when he went for 27 points against Wake Forest.
Now Allen has a chance to be one of Duke's go-to guys. Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow, Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook are all gone, and even if talented freshman wing Brandon Ingram emerges as the top option, Allen figures to play a big role in Duke's offense. We'll see if he's more than a one-hit wonder. I'm going to bet that he is.
10. Malik Newman, Mississippi State
11 of 20
Class: Freshman
2014-15 Stats (High School): 29.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.2 APG
Malik Newman is the best scorer in the 2015 class, and he's entering a situation where he should get as many shots as his heart desires. The Bulldogs return four of five starters, but no one on the roster is nearly as talented as Newman.
It's rare that new Mississippi State coach Ben Howland has had a guard dominate the ball in the past, although he was used to having elite talent at UCLA and pretty good players at Pitt as well. Even with Newman, he's not going to have the number of pros he's accustomed to coaching. Howland will likely look to build an offense around Newman, and he did show in his final year at UCLA that he can adapt his style to the roster. The Bruins played much faster that season than they traditionally had.
The biggest question surrounding the Bulldogs—and what scouts will be looking for—is whether the freshman can make those around him better. Everyone knows he can score. He'll be a point guard in the pros, so showing he can pass and elevate the guys around him will be key to Mississippi State's success and his draft stock.
9. Phil Forte, Oklahoma State
12 of 20
Class: Senior
2014-15 Stats: 15.0 PPG, 1.7 APG, 2.1 RPG, 1.9 SPG
The other part of the package deal that helped Oklahoma State land Marcus Smart has turned into the face of the program. It turns out Phil Forte is a great college player and would have been a major get for the Cowboys even if he hadn't helped deliver Smart.
Forte is one of the best shooters in the country. He's a pro at finding ways to get his shots, and he has a quick trigger. It helps that Forte has excellent stamina, and he can run defenders around screens all day to get his looks. He's become more of a scorer—and not just a shooter—by improving his ability to put the ball on the floor and score off the bounce.
With Le'Bryan Nash no longer around, Forte is going to see even more defensive attention. The Cowboys might take a step back unless they find other guys to step up, but it's not going to be because of Forte. They'll get every drop of production he's capable of mustering.
8. Kellen Dunham, Butler
13 of 20
Class: Senior
2014-15 Stats: 16.5 PPG, 2.6 RPG
Kellen Dunham took fewer shots his junior year compared to his sophomore season, but he became a much more efficient scorer. The difference was the talent around Dunham improved. Most specifically, his buddy Roosevelt Jones returned and Andrew Chrabascz made a big leap in his sophomore season.
Dunham deserves some credit for improving his game, and Chris Holtmann did a fine coaching job getting Butler back to defending at Brad Stevens levels and tinkering with the offense. But Jones helped take some of the pressure off Dunham and allowed him to get actual open looks. And when you give Dunham clean looks, he's one of the best snipers in the country.
7. E.C. Matthews, Rhode Island
14 of 20
Class: Junior
2014-15 Stats: 16.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.0 APG
E.C. Matthews is one of the best slashers at his position in college basketball. He's one of those slithering lefties that is hard to guard off the bounce. He can beat defenses one-on-one and is tricky to guard out of ball screens.
The one area where Matthews could improve is shooting the ball from deep. He made 68 threes last season, but he only shot 32.5 percent. That's nitpicking though. The impact of Matthews can be seen in Rhode Island's return to relevance. The Rams finished tied for second in the A-10 last season and made the NIT.
With their five leading scorers returning, the Rams are expected to have their best team since Lamar Odom was around. Odom's final season (1998-99) was the last time the Rams got to the NCAA tournament, and Matthews leading them back should be the expectation this year.
6. Wayne Selden, Kansas
15 of 20
Class: Junior
2014-15 Stats: 9.4 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.6 APG
Had Kansas not played in the World University Games this summer, Wayne Selden would be much lower on this list.
Selden as a sophomore was mostly a disappointment. He took too many long twos. When he did get to the rim, he finished poorly. He had the occasional hot night shooting the three and he did improve as a perimeter defender, but his offensive production was underwhelming.
Then a totally different Selden showed up for the Jayhawks this summer. He used his big body and athleticism to get to the rim. He finished really well around the basket. And he used his slashing game to help set up his jump shot, which looked great as well. Selden ended up leading the Jayhawks in scoring (19.3 points per game) and was the named World University Games Best Player in South Korea.
Selden spent most of his time this summer playing small forward, and he'll probably see more time there this year than in the past. Maybe that had a role in his success. Whatever the reasons, the expectations have changed for his junior year.
5. James Blackmon Jr., Indiana
16 of 20
Class: Sophomore
2014-15 Stats: 15.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.5 APG
It's rare that we get to see a prospect like James Blackmon Jr. have such a good freshman season at a program like Indiana and return for his sophomore year.
The Hoosiers have had it happen twice in the last few years. First, it was Cody Zeller coming back, and he helped produce one of the best offenses in the country. Blackmon's return could lead to similar results. IU was already a chore to guard his freshman season, able to spread the floor and flood opponents with threes.
Blackmon was most effective outside the arc, knocking down 77 threes at a 38.7 percent clip. He should only get better with a year of experience, and all of IU's shooters should benefit from the added inside presence of freshman Thomas Bryant, something Tom Crean's squad was missing last year.
4. Caris LeVert, Michigan
17 of 20
Class: Senior
2014-15 Stats: 14.9 PPG, 3.7 APG, 4.9 RPG, 1.8 SPG
Caris LeVert had his season cut short after only 17 games last year because of a foot injury, but LeVert likely would have still been drafted had he come out early. That's because you just don't find many 6'7" guards who can handle the ball, shoot and create for others.
LeVert is a dangerous weapon with a coach with a dangerous (offensive) mind. John Beilein has had a lot of success with multi-faceted guards like LeVert, and he has better weapons to surround his star with this year than he did a year ago. The pieces didn't really change, but because of injuries, Beilein figured out some of the guys he had on the bench, such as Aubrey Dawkins, were better than expected.
LeVert can score, but he's best when he can look to be a setup man as well. So with better guys around him this year, Michigan should get a better LeVert.
3. Buddy Hield, Oklahoma
18 of 20
Class: Senior
2014-15 Stats: 17.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.3 SPG
Buddy Hield has always been a streaky shooter, and when he's hot, look out. But the progression Hield has made through the years is that he's found ways to be productive even when his shot is off.
His consistency last season led to Big 12 Player of the Year honors. Hield scored in double figures in 32 of OU's 35 games, and he put up 15 or more points in each of the team's final eight games.
This summer Hield showed off a better-than-expected handle when he had to play some point guard at the Nike Skills Academy. That was valuable info for NBA teams who found out that in a pinch, Hield can slide over to the other guard spot. But it also showed the continued growth in his game and that he's now much more than just a shooter.
2. Malcolm Brogdon, Virgina
19 of 20
Class: Senior
2014-15 Stats: 14.0 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.4 APG
A foolish take is that Virginia doesn't have talented players and simply wins because of Tony Bennett's system. There are those who believe that, and it's hogwash.
Take this summer's Nike Basketball Academy as proof. Malcolm Brogdon got invited to the prestigious event, and at a camp that included a number of All-American candidates—Oklahoma's Buddy Hield, LSU's Ben Simmons, Gonzaga's Kyle Wiltjer and Iowa State's Georges Niang, to name a few—it was Brogdon who was the camp's MVP.
Brogdon was the best defender, making anyone he guarded uncomfortable. Brogdon knocked down outside shots and was better than expected shaking defenders off the dribble. He played both guard spots. And more important than anything else, he was usually on the winning team. He's not flashy and he's not a future lottery pick, but Brogdon is talented.
1. Ron Baker, Wichita State
20 of 20
Class: Senior
2014-15 Stats: 14.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.3 SPG
This summer at the Pan American Games in Canada, the United States trailed by 21 points to the Dominican Republic in the third-place game. The U.S. would end up winning by five, because, well, let's have coach Mark Few explain it.
"It was not looking good," Few said, per USA Basketball. "... Through that whole time, though, Ron Baker was just playing his tail off, and I think that kind of kept us alive."
Few had been on the other side of that before. It was Baker who buried some daggers a few years ago when the Shockers had a crazy comeback to knock off Gonzaga on their way to the Final Four.
The Shockers have lost only nine games with Baker on the floor over the last three seasons. And on top of all those intangibles that coaches love, he is a future pro and the best two-way shooting guard in college basketball. He was the best defender for the U.S. this summer on a team that included several pros, and he performed better than any college player on the roster.
Baker arrived in Wichita as a walk-on, and he'll finish his career as one of the best players in the history of the school.
C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.
All stats from the 2015 Pan-American Games and U-19 World Championships via USA Basketball. Unless otherwise noted, all high school statistics via each player's official university website.
