College Basketball 2011-12: 25 Bold Predictions for Next Season
Now that the 2011 NCAA tournament has ended, it is never too early to begin making bold predictions for next year's season.
Predictions in college basketball are rarely reliable, and I would never encourage any of you to place any bets on the following slides.
However, I have compiled my list of 25 bold predictions that I think will happen next year in college basketball.
25. Centenary Will Win More Than One Game Next Season
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The Centenary Gentlemen opened their 2010-11 campaign with an 104-40 loss against the Memphis Tigers.
They followed this opening night performance with 27 straight losses, a victory against Western Illinois then a 21-point loss to IUPUI.
Now, I'm not sure it's a good thing when a 1-29 team returns everybody except for one player from their roster, but the Gentlemen will have their leading scorer, Maxx Nakwaasah, and nine players who were brand new to college basketball last season.
It should get better. It can't really get much worse.
All the players on next year's team will have the shared experience of a miserable season together, and I think they will respond with three or four more victories.
24. Coaching Redemption for Larry Eustachy, Matt Doherty and Mike Davis
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These three coaches, who once led major programs to varying levels of success, can now be found in Conference USA building up their current teams.
2011-12 will be the year when we all will say, "Oh yeah, I remember that guy!" as Larry Eustachy, Matt Doherty and Mike Davis lead their teams to the NCAA Tournament.
Eustachy, who coaches at Southern Mississippi University (not to be confused with Doherty's SMU), has been slowly building the Golden Eagles into a solid 20-win per year team. D.J. Newbill, who will be a sophomore next season, and senior Angelo Johnson will lead Southern Mississippi in scoring and will allow Southern Miss to compete with Memphis and UAB.
Doherty, who will be starting his sixth season at Southern Methodist, led SMU to the semifinals of the 2011 CollegeInsider.com postseason tournament (yes, it's a real tournament; it's for the 24 teams who didn't make the NCAA or NIT field). What this means, is SMU was in the top 100 of college basketball last year, and with Robert Nyakundi (14.3 ppg) along with Jeremiah Samarrippas (7.4 ppg) returning for the 2011-12 campaign, look for SMU to finish in the top four of Conference USA.
Mike Davis has built a solid program at UAB. However, Davis has not been able to capture NCAA tournament success. Look for Davis to lead UAB to another Conference USA title and put them in position to possibly land a first-round upset.
23. Stanford Cardinal Will Make It Back to the NCAA Tournament
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In the 2010-11 season, three of Stanford's top five scorers were freshmen. Their two leading scorers, Jeremy Green (16.7 ppg) and Josh Owens (11.6), will also return for their senior seasons.
To go along with their five leading scorers, Stanford returns their pass first point guard, Jarrett Mann, to keep the offense running smoothly.
Also, Stanford will have sophomore big man, Stefan Nastic, who only played in five games last season. The 6'11'' Nastic was recruited by Duke, Maryland and Georgetown but chose to play at Stanford.
The Cardinal will finish in the top three of the Pac-12 (it will take some time to get used to seeing this name) next season.
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22. Remember the Name Trey Zeigler of Central Michigan University
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Trey Zeigler would have made the roster on teams like Duke, Kansas and Michigan State and would have found playing time on all three.
However, Trey Zeigler decided to go play at Central Michigan for his father, Ernie Zeigler. What this means is Zeigler is given the star role, and his father has created plenty of scoring opportunities for his son.
As a freshman, Zeigler scored 16.3 ppg and pulled down 5.4 rpg in 34.4 minutes a night. He's a surprisingly tall 6'5'' and plays a mixture of point guard/shooting guard.
If you have the chance to watch any Central Michigan games, look out for Zeigler. He could be one of the highest-scoring sophomores in the entire country next season.
21. UCLA's Wear Twins Will Be the White Version of the Morris Twins
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For those of you who enjoyed watching Marcus and Markieff Morris play for Kansas and are saddened with the reality that they will probably turn pro, fret no more.
David and Travis Wear will provide similar enjoyment for twin fans out at UCLA. The two 6'10'' forwards who originally played for North Carolina, have transferred to UCLA and will be active next season. They were both McDonald's All-Americans and will be instant contributors for the Bruins now that Tyler Honeycutt and Malcolm Lee are headed to the NBA.
20. D.J. Cooper Will Be the Best Point Guard in the Country
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Last year, Ohio's D.J. Cooper was second in the country in assists per game. Cooper averaged 7.5 apg to go along with 15.8 ppg.
Cooper is under 6', but what he lacks in size, he more than makes up for in quickness.
In a game against St. Bonnaventure last season, a team who finished with about the same record as the Ohio Bobcats, Cooper posted the following stat line:
43 points, 13 assists, 8 rebounds and 8 steals.
19. Washington Will Make the Round of 32
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If Isaiah Thomas comes back, I will have full confidence in this statement and might even argue that the Huskies will go even further.
Even without Thomas, I look for sophomores C.J. Wilcox and Terrence Ross to take over the offense and put Washington right at the top of the Pac-12.
18. Draymond Green Will Have a Big Senior Season
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Last year was a major disappointment for the Michigan State Spartans. Now, with Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers gone, look for Draymond Green to be the leader of this team.
Green averaged 12.6 ppg, 8.6 rpg and 4.1 apg last season. Look for those numbers to rise to 15, 10 and six.
Green made it to the Final Four in his first two seasons in East Lansing, and I expect him to lead a surprising Spartans team to the Sweet 16 in next year's tournament.
Green plays his best basketball in the postseason, and something tells me that the 2012 NCAA tournament will have a few special moments for the former Saginaw High School star.
17. If Alec Burks Returns, Colorado Will Have a Great Debut Season in Pac-12
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This slide is simple, if Alec Burks comes back to Colorado, the Buffaloes will finish in the top four of the Pac-12 conference.
If not, they will finish like they did in their days of the Big 12, somewhere around sixth or seventh.
16. Mark Turgeon Will Have Texas A&M in the Big 12 Championship Hunt
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With questions surrounding both Kansas and Texas as to which players will return next season, Texas A&M will find themselves right in the hunt for the Big 12 title.
The Aggies should return both Khris Middleton and David Loubeau, who were clearly Texas A&M's best players last season.
Turgeon has instilled defensive toughness into the A&M program and will force teams to beat them in games played in the 50-60 point range.
15. The Atlantic 10 Is Due for a Run
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Long ago, there were John Chaney's Temple teams, and for a few years, John Calipari had UMass right at the top of college basketball.
More recently, there was Jameer Nelson's St. Joseph's team, and Xavier has made several medium runs in the tournament.
Look for the Atlantic 10 to make a splash and send a team to the Elite Eight. I think this team will be Xavier.
Xavier returns their electrifying guards, Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons along with their seven-foot center, Kenny Frease.
They will miss Jamel McLean but will still finish first in the Atlantic 10 and probably only lose three or four games all season long.
14. ACC Will Be Back
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North Carolina and Duke will be in the top 10 all season long.
Florida State will also be solid.
Look for teams like Clemson, Virginia Tech and Maryland to have quality years and make the ACC a six-team conference again come NCAA tournament time.
13. University of Michigan Will Finish Top Three in the Big Ten
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Michigan almost beat Duke, Kansas and Ohio State last season.
If Darius Morris returns, Michigan might not win the Big Ten but will have a very good chance of finishing in the top three.
12. VCU and Butler Will Ruin People's Brackets...Again
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Butler and VCU should both have good enough records next season to secure a spot in the NCAA tournament.
Thousands of people will ride these two teams to the Sweet 16, maybe even further, to make up for missing out on them in last year's chaotic bracket.
This will ruin brackets.
VCU's best player, Jamie Skeen, and their floor general, Joey Rodriguez, were both seniors last season. Shaka Smart proved he is a talented young coach, but he will not see the fruits of his deep tournament run until three or four years from now when the higher level recruits he brings in will be in their junior and senior years.
As for Brad Stephens, he is an excellent coach and already has accomplished a lot with his back-to-back finals appearances. However, even the great coaches in college basketball have first-round exits.
I expect both VCU and Butler to lose in the first round of next year's tournament.
11. Harvard Will Be a Major Storyline
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Tommy Amaker is quietly building a solid program at Harvard.
Last year, Harvard went 23-7 and was a Princeton buzzer beater away from being in the field of 68.
They had five players average over 10 ppg in 2010-11 and return every one of those players for the 2011-12 season.
Watch out for Harvard to be as solid as Cornell was in 2009-10.
10. John Calipari's One-and-Done System Will Finally Have an off Year
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John Calipari has created an interesting system at the University of Kentucky. Recruit in three to five of the best high school seniors in the country, understand you'll only have them for one year and try to win the tournament before they head off to the NBA.
He made it to the Elite Eight two years ago and the Final Four last year. The amount of talent he's bringing in for 2011-12 already has people convinced they will win the whole thing.
I think this system is overdue for an upset.
All season long, Anthony Davis, Michael Gilchrist, Marquis Teague and Kyle Wiltjer will show us why they are first round of the NBA draft worthy, but I predict Kentucky goes down to a senior heavy No. 8 or No. 9 seeded mid-major in the Round of 32.
9. Syracuse Will Win the Big East
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They will lose Rick Jackson but return everyone else.
Syracuse will be one of the deepest teams in the country in terms of guard play and will slowly find their post presence between Fab Melo, Baye Moussa-Keita and newcomer, Rakeem Christmas.
Look for Syracuse to win either the Big East regular season title and/or conference tournament.
8. Doc Rivers's Son Will Be ACC Freshman of the Year at Duke University
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When your father is one of the smartest basketball minds in the NBA, making mistakes is not an option.
Austin Rivers will be the perfect player for Duke basketball. He plays smart and knows how to score the basketball.
The combination of Rivers, Seth Curry and Miles Plumlee will have Duke in the mix for the Final Four. Had Kyrie Irving not declared for the NBA, Duke would have been nearly unbeatable.
7. Texas Longhorns Could Win the Big 12
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If Tristan Thompson and Jordan Hamilton return to Texas, they will win the Big 12.
If they don't, Texas will be in a tight race with Kansas and Texas A&M for the conference title.
6. Belmont Will Be the Cinderella
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Belmont will make a run to the Elite Eight and has the best chance at repeating what Butler and VCU did last year.
Belmont went 30-5 last season and received a tough first-round matchup against Wisconsin. Belmont plays very similar to Wisconsin with fundamental offense paired with stingy defense. If Belmont would have gone up against a more athletic team who was more prone to turnovers, they would have made it to the round of 32. Maybe even further.
Next year, Belmont brings back all of their core guys.
Remember the Belmont Bruins when you are filling out your bracket.
5. No. 16 Seed Will Almost Upset a No. 1
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I don't know who it will be, but I fully expect a No. 16 seed to take a No. 1 into overtime in the first round of next year's tournament and almost pull off the ultimate upset.
This isn't as crazy as it may sound. In the history of the 64-team tournament, 11 times a No. 16 has lost to a No. 1 by less than 10 points. Five of those times, it was under five points. Two of those times it was decided by just one.
Like Murray State did in 1990 against Michigan State, I expect a No. 16 to take a No. 1 into overtime and have everyone at home, with the exception of the No. 1 seed's fanbase, cheering for the unlikely miracle to happen.
4. Connecticut Will Return to the Final Four
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I've noticed a strange phenomenon in college basketball where teams lose their star player and surprisingly come back the next season just as strong, if not stronger.
Take for example the 2007-08 Kansas Jayhawks who lost Julian Wright from the year before but went on to win the national championship the following season.
Then there's this year's Butler team who lost Gordon Hayward to the NBA draft but still ended up in the national championship.
If Jeremy Lamb comes back, the Huskies will have plenty of pieces to make another deep tournament run. Shabazz Napier, Roscoe Smith and Alex Oriakhi will make larger contributions to fill in for Kemba Walker's absence.
Connecticut will be back in the Final Four in 2011-12.
3. Kansas Will Make a Surprise Trip to the Final Four
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If Marcus Morris and Markieff Morris come back, then the Kansas may be the favorite to win the national championship.
However, if all the reports are true and the Morris twins are indeed headed off to the NBA, the Jayhawks will surprise people by getting further next year than they did the two previous seasons.
Here's how it will happen. Tyshaun Taylor, Thomas Robinson and Josh Selby have the most upside of any of the players from last year's roster. They all are returning.
Taylor was playing great at the end of the season, and I expect him to be a college version of Rajon Rondo next year. Selby will have more minutes with Tyrel Reed and Brady Morningstar gone, and I think Selby will find his offensive rhythm and possibly lead the Jayhawks in scoring. Robinson will emerge as a top NBA prospect and fill in the points that the Morris twins gave the Jayhawks last year.
Insert Elijah Johnson, Travis Releford and newly signed Ben McLemore and I can see the Jayhawks struggling early but finding their chemistry at the end of February, beginning of March.
Coming in as a No. 4 or No. 5 seed, they will feel less pressure and finally get a chance to play the role of spoiler rather than spoiled.
2. Ohio State Will Go to the Finals
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It doesn't seem to make sense that Jared Sullinger would return for his sophomore season,
Sullinger would be the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft, but yet, all signs point to him returning for the Buckeyes. If this remains true, Ohio State will be just as good as they were last year but will ride their No. 1 seed to the NCAA finals.
1. North Carolina Will Win It All
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As of now, it appears that North Carolina will return its entire starting five.
This is bad news for the rest of college basketball.
They will have depth at every position and will add talented freshmen James McAdoo and P.J. Hairston to their already talented roster.
Look for Roy Williams to take his team to the finals and win it all.
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