Everything You Need to Know About the 2018 NCAA Basketball Championship Game
Either the Villanova Wildcats or the Michigan Wolverines will be crowned the 2018 men's college basketball national champions Monday night in San Antonio.Ā
This NCAA tournament felt like one gigantic Cinderella story, yet we have somehow been blessed with a national championship pitting the Big East conference tournament champion against the Big Ten tournament champion.
Will John Beilein win his first title and finally cut down the nets for the Big Ten for the first time since 2000, or will Jay Wright add a second national championship to what has become a collegiate dynasty over the past five years?
We have a full breakdown of everything you need to know about the 2018 title game: how the two teams got here,Ā the biggest storylines to watch,Ā who their stars and underrated players are and each team's blueprint to victory.
Michigan Wolverines
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Record: 33-7, No. 3 seed in West Regional
Path to San Antonio: 61-47 over No. 14 Montana; 64-63 over No. 6 Houston; 99-72 over No. 7 Texas A&M; 58-54 over No. 9 Florida State; 69-57 over No. 11 Loyola-Chicago
Biggest Strengths: No. 3 in nation in offensive turnover percentage; tournament opponents have shot 18-of-75 (24.0 percent) from three-point range
Achilles' Heel: Ranked 326th in nation in free-throw percentage (66.1)
Save for a huge showing against Texas A&M in the Sweet 16, offense has been hard to come by for the Wolverines. In the other four games, they are shooting just 25.0 percent (24-of-96) from the three-point line and 40.2 percent (86-of-214) from the field.
Charles Matthews has been the MVP, scoring at least 17 points in four of the five games. Moritz Wagner has also had a couple of huge games, dropping 21 on Texas A&M and blowing up for 24 points and 15 rebounds in the Final Four win over Loyola-Chicago.
Aside from that, buckets have been at a premium.
The defense, however, has been sensational, as it was all season long.
Tournament opponents have averaged 58.6 points per game against Michigan. In addition to great three-point defense, the Wolverines have made ball movement next to impossible. All five opponents had an assist rate below 41 percent and finished with a negative assist-to-turnover ratio. Overall, they have forced 68 turnovers while allowing just 40 assists.
To an extent, we can attribute that dominance to the draw Michigan has gotten. It will finally face a No. 1 seed on Monday night, but up until this point, Michigan has not faced a team seeded better than No. 6 (Houston). Moreover, the Wolverines have yet to face an opponent ranked in the top 35 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
But don't misinterpret that as an attempt to mitigate what they have accomplished. This defense was also outstanding in February and early March against the likes of Michigan State, Ohio State and Purdue. John Beilein's bunch has been improving month over month, and they would've been prepared to defend their tails off, no matter the competition.
Villanova Wildcats
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Record: 35-4, No. 1 seed in East Regional
Path to San Antonio: 87-61 over No. 16 Radford; 81-58 over No. 9 Alabama; 90-78 over No. 5 West Virginia; 71-59 over No. 3 Texas Tech; 95-79 over No. 1 Kansas
Biggest Strengths: No. 1 in nation in adjusted offensive efficiency; shooting 66-of-156 (42.3 percent) from three-point range in the tournament
Achilles' Heel: Opponents shoot 75.1 percent from free-throw line (335th in nation)
Is it too late to award the Big 12 championship to Villanova?
The Wildcats rolled through West Virginia, Texas Tech and Kansas with minimal resistance in their last three games. All five of their tournament wins came by at least 12 points, and their average margin of victory is 17.8 points.
Not since North Carolina destroyed everything in its path in the 2009 tournament (20.2 average margin of victory) has a team looked this unstoppable throughout its run to the championship game. It's purely coincidental, but those Tar Heels also began their journey with a blowout win over No. 16 seed Radford.
What's not coincidental is that the Wildcats are winning the exact same way they won the national championship two years ago: three-pointers. They were more efficient in 2016, making 50 percent of their 112 attempts that year, but the volume in this run has been unreal. Even with a 4-of-24 dud against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight, the Wildcats are averaging 13.2 made three-pointers per game.
Such is life when all five of your starters and your top two reserves are deadly from three-point range.
How's this for unfair? Heading into Saturday's game against Kansas, Eric Paschall (31-of-93) was Villanova's seventh-best three-point shooter for the season. But in the most important game of the season (thus far), he shot 10-of-11 from the field and 4-of-5 from downtown in a contest that was effectively over by halftime.
This defense hasn't been too shabby, either. That was the big question until late in the season, but wins over Seton Hall (Feb. 28), Providence (Mar. 10) and Texas Tech (Elite Eight) were proof that this team can win games even when it isn't setting the nets ablaze from three-point range. Opponents have averaged just 67.0 points in the tournament.
Biggest Storylines
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Can Michigan Break the Big Ten Title Curse?
The Big Ten has not won a men's basketball national championship since Michigan State in 2000, but the league has had plenty of opportunities.Ā Indiana (2002), Illinois (2005), Ohio State (2007), Michigan State (2009), Michigan (2013) and Wisconsin (2015) all made it to the title game before falling one win shy of the ultimate goal.
Older fans of the program can attest that the Wolverines are no strangers to losing at this stage in the tournament, either. They did win it all in 1989, but they lost in the final game in 1965, 1976, 1992, 1993 and 2013. If they were to lose this one, they would join Duke (six) and Kansas (six) as the only programs with six or more runner-up banners.
2 Out of 3 Wouldn't Be Bad
The 2006-07 Florida Gators are the only team in the past quarter-century to win back-to-back national championships. It's also the only team since 1996-98 Kentucky to win two titles in the span of three years, which is something Villanova is just one win away from accomplishing.
Kris Jenkins will forever be remembered for draining the game-winner, but Jalen Brunson, Phil Booth and Mikal Bridges are all current members of the roster who were key pieces of the team that won it all in 2016. Will that previous experience on this gigantic stage pay dividends on Monday night?
Unstoppable Force or Immovable Object?
Villanova's three-point shooting has been out of this world. The Wildcats drained 18 triples against Kansas, but what else is new? They entered that game having made at least 13 threes in six of their previous eight games. It was the 11th time this season they made at least 15 three-pointers. Villanova is top 15 in the nation in both three-point percentage and three-point rate.
But if there's any team in the country that is built to slow down this three-point barrage, it's got to be Michigan, right? The Wolverines have a defensive three-point rate that ranks fifth in the nation, and opponents only make 32.7 percent of the three-point shots that they are able to take.
Will Villanova be able to break down Michigan's defense to find open looks along the perimeter? Will the Wildcats just jack up three-pointers regardless of how contested they are?
Stars to Watch
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Jalen Brunson, Villanova
Tournament Stats: 17.6 PPG, 4.4 APG, 1.2 SPG, 40.7% 3PT
Has there ever been a college basketball player wiser beyond his years than Brunson? His leadership and vision on the court are just plain ridiculous, and his ability to efficiently create offenseāeither for himself or for his teammatesāis second to none. It's just a shame "hockey assists" don't show up in the box score; otherwise, he would have a double-double in every single game.
Moritz Wagner, Michigan
Tournament Stats: 14.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.4 SPG, 40.9% 3PT
Just like Frank Kaminsky for Wisconsin when the Badgers made their deep tournament runs in 2014 and 2015, Wagner has been the ultimate matchup nightmare for the Wolverines. Teams with true centers have struggled to contain this stretch 5, but he can also cause problems with his size in the paint. He did both against Loyola-Chicago, destroying the Ramblers on the offensive glass before beating them with three-pointers late in the game en route to 24 points and 15 rebounds.
Mikal Bridges, Villanova
Tournament Stats: 14.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 44.8% 3PT
We sometimes forget about Bridges while marveling over Brunson, but this is the Wildcat who is almost certainly going to be a lottery pick this June. The big unknown for this team heading into the season was whether Bridges could maintain his efficiency from his first two seasons while increasing his volume to make up for the departures of Josh Hart and Kris Jenkins. And he has been better than anyone could have imagined, draining 101 three-pointers at a 43.5 percent clip.
Charles Matthews, Michigan
Tournament Stats: 16.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.0 SPG
Where would Michigan be right now if Matthews hadn't decided to transfer in from Kentucky after the 2015-16 season? The sophomore wing-forward has scored in double figures in all five tournament games, and he was basically the entire offense in the wins over Montana and Florida State. With his ability to drive the laneāespecially when Wagner spreads the floor by lingering on the perimeterāit's hard to believe Michigan has had so much trouble putting points on the board.
Underrated Players to Watch
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Jordan Poole, Michigan
Tournament Stats: 8.4 MPG, 4.6 PPG, 1.2 RPG
Could Poole still have a few minutes of fame left up his sleeve? His buzzer-beating three-pointer was the biggest moment of the opening weekend of the tournament, but he has been more than just that one bucket. He also scored six points against Loyola-Chicago during the 12-2 second-half run that turned an eight-point deficit into a lead the Wolverines never gave back. The freshman shooting guard has been a key reserve for Michigan all season long.
Collin Gillespie, Villanova
Tournament Stats: 10.6 MPG, 3.0 PPG, 0.8 SPG
Villanova hasn't needed much from Gillespie, particularly in the tournament, but what a luxury it is to know that the seventh man on this roster is a 39 percent three-point shooter who averages 3.0 assists and 1.7 steals per 40 minutes. He might not make much of an impact in the championship game, but get familiar with him. This freshman is going to be a key contributor for the Wildcats for years to come.
Jon Teske, Michigan
Tournament Stats: 9.8 MPG, 2.4 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 0.8 BPG
If Moritz Wagner has another monster performance like he did in the Final Four, we won't see much of Michigan's 7'1" backup center. But he will be an important defensive presence for what limited time he does spend on the floor. Teske doesn't contribute much in the way of scoring, but he has averaged 10.5 rebounds, 2.1 blocks and 1.8 steals per 40 minutes this season.
Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree, Villanova
Tournament Stats: 11.4 MPG, 4.0 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 1.0 BPG
Cosby-Roundtree is the one Wildcat who doesn't shoot threes, and yet he leads the team in effective field-goal percentage by a ridiculous margin because he makes 77.9 percent of his two-point attempts. He made his first six field-goal attempts in the tournament before finally missing one. The freshman forward was a key piece of the Elite Eight win over Texas Tech, snagging five offensive rebounds.
Villanova's Blueprint to Winning the Title
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It won't be easy, but if Villanova can do these four things, the Wildcats will be the 2018 national champions.
1. Keep Hitting Three-Pointers.
Here's some Captain Obvious analysis for you: Villanova is tough to beat when it's making three-pointers. Actually, "tough" is putting it too lightly. It's more like impossible to beat. The Wildcats are now 31-1 this season when shooting at least 31 percent from three-point range, and the lone exception came when Butler shot 15-of-22 (68.2 percent) in a 101-93 upset.
Even against Michigan's elite three-point defense, 31 percent isn't asking much from this group. The seven primary Wildcats are all shooting better than 35 percent for the season, and five of those are at 39 percent or better. It's possible they could go ice-cold as a team, but it doesn't happen often.
2. Find an answer for Moritz Wagner.
Omari Spellman is an excellent three-point shooter, but how is his perimeter defense?
The redshirt freshman has been a mismatch in Villanova's favor all season long, but he may be a liability against Michigan's taller and equally lethal stretch 5. Most of his time on the defensive end of the floor has been spent in the paint, blocking shots and defending conventional centers. Putting him in ball-screen action could be a disaster, but who else is going to match up against Wagner? If the big German hits an early triple or two, it could completely alter the trajectory of the game.
3. Get to the free-throw line.
Michigan does not foul often, and Villanova does not excel at drawing contact. Thus, this might be the most challenging of the mandates. But if there's one area of the game where the Wildcats have a clear advantage over Michigan, it's free-throw shooting.
These teams are polar opposites of one another at the charity stripe. VillanovaĀ ranks 10th in the nationĀ at 77.9 percent while Michigan ranks 324th at 66.1 percent. The only starter for the Wildcats who doesn't shoot at least 80 percent is Spellman, and 69.1 percent isn't bad for a center.
Villanova only attempted seven free throws against Kansas, but last weekend against West Virginia and Texas Tech, the Wildcats were a combined 52-of-62 (83.9 percent). If they can get at least a dozen freebies, it could make a colossal difference.
4. Get Phil Booth going.
You may have seen the note during Michigan's game that the Wolverines are 29-0 this season when Duncan Robinson scores at least six points. Well, Villanova is in a similar boat with Phil Booth, as the Wildcats are 25-0 when their shooting guard puts up at least six points.
And we already know that Booth likes to play on the big stage. When Villanova won the title in 2016, he had 10 points in the Final Four against Oklahoma before going for 20 in the title game against North Carolina. After putting up 10 against Kansas on Saturday, could he go for 20 again?
Michigan's Blueprint to Winning the Title
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It won't be easy, but if Michigan can do these four things, the Wolverines will be the 2018 national champions.
1. Win the turnover battle.
One of the exciting things about this game is that both teams excel at avoiding turnovers. Michigan is fourth in the nation inĀ offensive turnover percentage, and Villanova isn't far behind in 13th place. That should make for a clean, free-flowing affair.
But steals have been a big part of Michigan's run in this tournament. The Wolverines had 10 of them against Loyola-Chicago, and the 12 steals against Texas A&M are why that game got out of hand in a hurry. AndĀ even with a machine like Jalen Brunson running the show, the Wildcats aren't flawless.
We're not saying Michigan needs to force 20 turnovers while only committing four of its own, but something in the vicinity of 12 and seven, respectively, could be a big deal.
2. Figure things out on offense.
Michigan's defense has been great, but this team is headed for a rude awakening if it thinks 70 points will be enough to win the game.
Villanova has scored at least 81 points in 29 of 39 games this season and has only been held below 71 points three timesātwo of which happened in a ballroom in the Bahamas in November.Ā The Wolverines should fare better on defense than most do against Villanova, but that likely still means roughly 75-80 points allowed.
Michigan has the offensive firepower to win that type of game, but we've only seen it in one of its five tournament games. Moritz Wagner, Charles Matthews and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman all need to be putting up points in this one. And if the Wolverines can find another Spike Albrecht to come out of nowhere for 17 points in the national championship, that would be fantastic.
3. Control the tempo.
Villanova plays at an average pace and has proven it can win in either fast or slow games. Thus, if this is a 64-possession game, it doesn't necessarily mean Michigan has a significant advantage.
However, if it's a game with 70 or more possessions with a lot of run-and-gun action, that would be bad news bears for the Wolverines. They want to grind this thing out on both ends of the floor, keeping the Wildcats from getting into an offensive rhythm. It would help even the playing field.
4. Limit the hockey assists.
Michigan'sĀ defensive assist rateĀ ranks 21st in the nation, and that was a huge problem for Loyola-Chicago in the Final Four. The Ramblers typically probe the defense, moving the ball around a ton to find an open look. But Michigan's defense recovers so quickly that passes rarely set anything up. Loyola finished with just six assists on 22 made buckets, only one of which came from three-point range.
But Villanova's ability to whip the ball around the perimeter is on a completely different level. Brunson's ability to either score in the post or pass out of it is what makes this offense so deadly. If you don't double him, he has the moves to get an open look virtually every time. If you do double him, he'll find a teammate on the wing who will immediately find another teammate before the defense even has a chance to rotate.
If the Wolverines are able to somehow mitigate that elite-level ball movement and hold the Wildcats to 13 or fewer assists, that might be enough for the win.
Statistics courtesy ofĀ KenPom.comĀ andĀ Sports Reference.
Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter,Ā @kerrancejames.Ā Ā
