SEC Tournament 2018: Preview and Predictions for Every Team

The Southeastern Conference men's basketball tournament, which starts Wednesday at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis, looks like a wide-open affair with a number of strong teams but no dominant squad.

As many as eight SEC teams could get NCAA tournament berths, based on the latest projections by ESPN.com, CBSSports.com and USA Today, but none is seeded higher than No. 3. Five SEC teams (Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas and Florida) seem to have NCAA bids locked up, while Missouri and Texas A&M are in good positions to land berths as well.

Alabama finds itself on the bubble and needs a few wins in the SEC tournament to reach the Big Dance, while any of the other six teams could earn an automatic NCAA berth by winning the event.

The top four seeded teams (Auburn, Tennessee, Florida and Kentucky) get byes into Friday's quarterfinal round, while the bottom four teams would need to win five games in five days to win the conference tournament.

We provide a look at each of the 14 teams, the time and opponent for its first game, television coverage and its chance for success. Saturday's semifinals and Sunday's championship game will be broadcast on ESPN.

Teams are presented in inverse order of their seeding, with the top seed listed last.

All game times are Eastern time, although St. Louis is in the Central time zone.

14. Mississippi

Rogelio V. Solis/Associated Press

First Matchup: No. 11 South Carolina (Wednesday, approximately 9:30 p.m., SEC Network)

Prediction: Lose in the first round

Coach Andy Kennedy's resignation, one day after a 17-point loss to archrival Mississippi State on Feb. 17, tells you all you need to know about Mississippi's season. After an impressive victory over Florida on Jan. 13, the Rebels (12-19, 5-13) went in the tank. They lost nine of their next 10 games, including a seven-game losing streak that ended with their best win of the season, a road victory over Missouri in Tony Madlock's first game as interim head coach. Mississippi then lost its final three games.

The Rebels need to win five games in five days in St. Louis to avoid a third straight season without an NCAA tournament berth, and this team cannot win five in a row.

Mississippi is among the worst shooting teams in the country, ranking 301st in field-goal percentage (42.1) and 326th in three-point shooting percentage (31.7). The Rebels were 1-of-23 from long range in the Feb. 24 home loss to Tennessee, and Deandre Burnett, their top scorer for much of the season, was just 7-of-36 (19.4 percent) from the field over the final four games.

Mississippi beat its first-round tournament opponent, South Carolina, way back on Dec. 31, but a lot has happened since then. Don't expect the Rebels to do it again.

13. Vanderbilt

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First Matchup: No. 12 Georgia (Wednesday, 7 p.m., SEC Network)

Prediction: Lose in the second round

Vanderbilt (12-19, 6-12) used victories over Texas A&M and Florida in last season's SEC tournament to squeak into the NCAA tournament in Bryce Drew's first season as head coach. However, the Commodores will have to win the conference tournament to make it to the Big Dance. That would require five victories in five days, and that's not going to happen.

Vanderbilt is not particularly strong in any aspect. It relies on three-point shooting but is making only 35.3 percent from beyond the arc. The Commodores' best wins were against Florida and TCU, both at home, although their best performances may have been a two-point road loss to Kentucky and a five-point defeat at Tennessee. Losing forward Matthew Fisher-Davis to a season-ending shoulder injury suffered in a Jan. 12 game against Kentucky, per the Tennessean, did not help matters.

Jeff Roberson, the team's leading scorer, has been scoring at a healthy clip late in the season, averaging 21.2 points over the final six games. The Commodores lost three of their last four games but beat Mississippi on the road in the finale.

Adam Sparks of the Tennessean cited the Commodores' poor defense in a Feb. 24 loss to Texas A&M, and noted that Vanderbilt is already looking ahead to improvement that next season's newcomers can provide. A team that is focusing on next season does not have much chance to succeed this season.

The Commodores beat first-round opponent Georgia by 15 points in their only meeting this season. A second-round game against Missouri is likely to end their season.

12. Georgia

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First Matchup: No. 13 Vanderbilt (Wednesday, 7 p.m., SEC Network)

Prediction: Lose in the first round

Georgia (16-14, 7-11) may have the best player in the Southeastern Conference in 6'8" Yante Maten. The only 2017 first-team all-SEC selection who is back this season, Maten leads the SEC in scoring (19.4 points per game) and is second in rebounding (8.8). However, the Bulldogs have a limited amount of talent around him, as no one else averages double figures in scoring.

Georgia has been erratic. It has some impressive wins, such as a road win over Florida and a home victory over Tennessee in consecutive games in mid-February and a neutral-court victory over Saint Mary's back in November. But the Bulldogs also lost twice to South Carolina and suffered double-digit defeats against Massachusetts and Vanderbilt.

The Bulldogs seem to be playing better lately, despite losing three of their last four games. A one-point loss to Texas A&M that was followed by a five-point road loss in the final game against Tennessee indicates the Dawgs are inching forward. They probably have to win the SEC tournament to avoid missing the NCAA tournament for a third consecutive year, although getting to the SEC title game would put them in the conversation for an at-large berth.

A first-round game against Vanderbilt is a toss-up, but winning a second-round game against Missouri would require an upset.

11. South Carolina

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First Matchup: No. 14 Mississippi (Wednesday, approximately 9:30 p.m., SEC Network)

Prediction: Lose in the second round

South Carolina (16-15, 7-11) has taken a precipitous drop this season. After reaching the  Final Four last season, coach Frank Martin seemed to have the program on the upswing. But Sindarius Thornwell, last season's SEC player of the year, departed after last season, and the Gamecocks' chances for success left with him.

Promising victories over Kentucky and Florida in January were negated by a six-game losing streak that began later that month. The low point was a 65-41 home loss to Florida on Feb. 10, and Martin apologized to the fans after that defeat, per Andrew Ramspacher of the State.

South Carolina ended the losing streak with its best win of the season, an 84-75 home victory over first-place Auburn. When the Gamecocks followed that up with a victory over Georgia, it appeared a late-season surge might be in the making. The Gamecocks won three of their last five games, and they were competitive in a road loss to Auburn in the final regular-season game.

Chris Silva, the Gamecocks' leading scorer and rebounder, had his best game of the season while collecting 27 points and eight rebounds in the Jan. 16 victory over Kentucky, and he will need to be just as productive  in St. Louis for South Carolina to make any headway in the conference tournament. 

South Carolina should get past Mississippi in its opener, and it has an outside shot to win in its second-round game against Arkansas, even though the Razorbacks won the teams' only meeting by 16 points. 

10. LSU

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First Matchup: No. 7 Mississippi State (Thursday, 7 p.m., SEC Network)

Prediction: Lose in the quarterfinals

In early January, LSU (17-13, 8-10) looked like it might challenge for the SEC title. The Tigers had a nonconference win over Houston, and after a three-point loss to Kentucky in their conference opener, they took out Texas A&M and Arkansas in consecutive road games. The latter, a 75-54 victory in Fayetteville, on Jan. 10 was particularly impressive as LSU shot 52.7 percent from the field while limiting the Razorbacks to 33.3 percent shooting.

It was a mirage. LSU lost five of its next six games and has not won a single road game since that big win at Arkansas, a streak of seven straight losses away from home.

The problem is defense. The Tigers rank 13th in the SEC in field-goal percentage defense (45.2) and have given up 80 points or more in eight of their last 11 games. Tremont Waters, a 5'11" freshman and the team's top scorer, has been productive lately, averaging 21.4 points over the final five games.

The Tigers' 78-57 win over Mississippi State in their final regular-season game was their most impressive performance of the season, and it should catapult them to another win over Mississippi State in the opening round of the conference tournament. But that is the most they can expect.

9. Alabama

Butch Dill/Associated Press

First Matchup: No. 8 Texas A&M (Thursday, 1 p.m., SEC Network)

Prediction: Lose in the second round

Alabama (17-14, 8-10) will be motivated because it may need a win or two to get an NCAA tournament berth after fading down the stretch.

The Crimson Tide looked like a shoo-in for the Big Dance when they beat Tennessee by 28 points on Feb. 10 and LSU by 15 points on Feb. 13, giving Alabama a 17-9 record, including 8-5 in the SEC. The Tide also had a January win over Auburn in the bank, so everything seemed rosy.

It has come crashing down since then. The win over LSU was followed by losses in each of the final five games, and the fourth defeat in that span was a demoralizing 21-point home loss to Florida on Feb. 27. In Alabama's final two home games (losses to Arkansas and Florida), standout freshman guard Collin Sexton was just 8-of-26 from the field, including 0-of-6 on three-point attempts. He bounced back with 23 points and seven assists in the two-point loss to Texas A&M in the final game, but Sexton missed all three of his three-point shots.

It will be difficult to turn the momentum around in the Tide's opening tournament game against Texas A&M, and they could be looking at an NIT berth.

8. Texas A&M

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First Matchup: No. 9 Alabama (Thursday, 1 p.m., SEC Network)

Prediction: Lose in the final

Texas A&M (20-11, 9-9) began the season like it would challenge for a national championship. The Aggies entered conference play with a No. 5 ranking and an 11-1 record that included a 33-point win over West Virginia, a 16-point win over then-No. 10 USC and a three-point loss to Arizona in Phoenix. When SEC play began, it all fell apart, starting with a 22-point loss to Alabama in the conference opener that initiated a five-game losing streak.

Player absences played a part in the decline. A knee injury to starting guard Armon Gilder sidelined him for five games, including the first three conference games, and DJ Hogg was suspended for three games, including the first two SEC games, for a violation of team rules, according to the Dallas Morning News.

Starters Robert Williams and Duane Wilson also missed games with health issues this season, and Wilson suffered a season-ending knee injury against Kentucky, according to 247Sports. Ten different players started at least four games for head coach Billy Kennedy this season.

With their key players available, the Aggies pulled out a road win over Auburn and an 11-point victory over Kentucky in consecutive games early in February, and they finished with three straight wins.

Williams and Tyler Davis, the team's top scorer, rank first and third, respectively, in SEC rebounding, and the Aggies are a good defensive team, partly because they are tied for sixth nationally in blocked shots per game (5.8). The one concern is that Williams' production has declined recently. He averaged just 5.0 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.3 blocks and 17.3 minutes over the final three games.

As its early-season success and late-season surge suggest, Texas A&M could be a team that pulls a surprise or two in the conference tournament. The Aggies might get an NCAA tournament bid even if they lose their SEC tournament opener, but this team is focusing on an SEC tournament title.

7. Mississippi State

John Minchillo/Associated Press

First Matchup: No. 10 LSU (Thursday, 7 p.m., SEC Network)

Prediction: Lose in the second round

Ben Howland is making progress in his third season as Mississippi State's head coach. Despite being picked to finish 12th in the SEC preseason media poll, the Bulldogs finished the regular season 21-10 overall and 9-9 in the conference.

However, Mississippi State is probably not as a good as its 21 wins suggest. That is reflected by the fact that USA Today, ESPN and CBSSports.com do not have the Bulldogs included in their projected NCAA tournament field. In fact, none of the three even has Mississippi State among its "first four out."

A soft nonconference schedule helped the Bulldogs to a 13-1 start, and the victory over Arkansas in the conference opener opened some eyes. That turned out to be the Bulldogs' best win of the season. They have beaten the teams they were supposed to beat but have been unable to pull off upsets other than that win over the Razorbacks.

That indicates consistency, but it also suggests the Bulldogs do not have the talent to get far in a conference tournament. A humbling 22-point loss at home to Tennessee on Feb. 27 that was followed by an equally disappointing 21-point defeat against LSU in the finale demonstrates Mississippi State's limitations.

Brothers Nick and Quinndary Weatherspoon provide much of the offense, but neither is a good outside shooter. Mississippi State as a team does not shoot well, ranking last in the SEC and 336th in the nation in three-point shooting at 30.7 percent.

The Bulldogs lost to LSU by 21 points in their regular-season finale, and there is no reason to expect them to fare better against the Tigers in their SEC tournament opener.

6. Arkansas

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First Matchup: No. 11 South Carolina/No. 14 Mississippi winner (Thursday, approximately 9:30 p.m., SEC Network)

Prediction: Lose in the quarterfinals

Arkansas (21-10, 10-8) comes into the SEC tournament on a roll and is a candidate to go deep into the tournament.

The Razorbacks have won six of their last eight games, although a 10-point loss to Missouri in the last game slowed their momentum a bit. Most of Arkansas' recent wins have been convincing. The Razorbacks led Auburn by 15 points with seven minutes left before easing to a 91-82 victory on Feb. 27. In that eight-game stretch, Arkansas also beat Texas A&M by 19 points, South Carolina by 16, Vanderbilt by 18 and Mississippi by 11 on the road.

Arkansas' only two losses since Feb. 3 were a 15-point home loss to Kentucky in the teams' only meeting this season and Saturday's loss to Missouri.

The Razorbacks are an outstanding perimeter shooting team. They lead the SEC in three-point shooting percentage (40.2), and their top two offensive threats, Jaylen Barford and Daryl Macon, each has made better than 43 percent of his long-range shots for the season.

Daniel Gafford, a 6'11" freshman, has given the Razorbacks an inside presence and a needed third scorer recently, averaging 15.7 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.4 blocks over the last seven games. He blocked seven shots in the Auburn victory.

Arkansas is a team to watch this week and also in the NCAA tournament, but it will have trouble getting past Florida in the quarterfinals.

5. Missouri

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First Matchup: No. 12 Georgia/No. 13 Vanderbilt winner (Thursday, approximately 3:30 p.m., SEC Network)

Prediction: Lose in the semifinals

Missouri (20-11, 10-8) is a wild card for the conference tournament. That's because there is a good chance that Tigers freshman Michael Porter Jr. will play this week, per Jeff Goodman and Myron Medcalf of ESPN.com. Dave Matter of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported a week ago that Porter was cleared to practice on Feb. 22 by his spinal surgeon. 

Even if Porter plays in the SEC tournament, it is uncertain how much he would play or how effective he would be after missing virtually the entire season after having back surgery on Nov. 21, according to Reid Forgrave of CBSSports.com.

But this is no ordinary player. He was rated the nation's No. 2 prospect in the class of 2017 by ESPN.com and No. 1 by Rivals. The former ranked Porter ahead of Deandre Ayton of Arizona, Wendell Carter Jr. of Duke, Kevin Knox of Kentucky and Trae Young of Oklahoma. Just having him on the floor could give the Tigers an emotional lift.

Even without Porter, Missouri could create some noise in the conference tournament. First-year head coach Cuonzo Martin has interjected some life into the program after three embarrassing seasons under Kim Anderson. The Tigers have wins over Tennessee and Kentucky, although both were at home. Their most impressive road win was against Alabama, but the way they were taken apart by Kentucky, 87-66, on Feb. 24 does not instill confidence.

The Tigers' wins over Vanderbilt and Arkansas in their last two games put an end to a three-game losing streak that included an embarrassing home loss to Mississippi.

CBSSports.com and ESPN put the Tigers into their projected NCAA tournament fields as a No. 8 seed. A second-round win over Georgia or Vanderbilt will erase any doubt.

4. Kentucky

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First Matchup: No. 5 Missouri/No. 12 Georgia/No. 13 Vanderbilt winner (Friday, approximately 3:30 p.m., ESPN)

Prediction: Lose in the quarterfinals

Despite its disappointing showing in its final regular-season game against Florida, Kentucky (21-10, 10-8) is putting it together at the right time and has a chance of winning the SEC tournament.

With Kentucky's top five scorers being freshmen, it should come as no surprise that the Wildcats had problems with consistency early on. Ranked No. 5 in the Associated Press preseason poll based on a recruiting class ranked second in the nation by ESPN.com, Kentucky suffered a disappointing neutral-court loss to UCLA on Dec. 23 and a bad road defeat at South Carolina on Jan. 16.

The Wildcats bottomed out on Feb. 14, when they were outscored 21-7 over the final seven minutes of a 76-66 loss at Auburn. It was Kentucky's fourth loss in a row, the longest losing streak since John Calipari became coach following the 2008-09 season, per Kentucky's website.

Since then, however, the Wildcats have been solid, winning four games in a row, all by double-digit margins, before a disappointing 13-point loss against Florida.

The addition of 6'9" freshman Jarred Vanderbilt has helped. He missed the first 17 games of the season as the result of a foot injury suffered in preseason, according to the Lexington Herald-Leader. He gives the Wildcats what they needed.

"He plays with energy. He can defend. He can handle the ball. He can pass the ball. And boy, can he rebound the ball," wrote John Clay of the Herald-Leader on Feb. 18.

Vanderbilt had 15 rebounds in 27 minutes during the 87-66 victory over Missouri on Feb. 24 and 11 boards in 24 minutes during the 96-78 win over Mississippi on Feb. 28.

The Wildcats' biggest problem is that they may have to face Missouri being armed with Michael Porter Jr. in their first tournament game.

3. Florida

Crystal LoGiudice/Associated Press

First Matchup: No. 6 Arkansas/No. 11 South Carolina/No. 14 Mississippi winner (Friday, approximately 9:30 p.m., SEC Network)

Prediction: Lose in the semifinals

Florida (20-11, 11-7) began the season with a bang, climbing to No. 5 in the Associated Press rankings after its Nov. 25 victory over Gonzaga. The Gators surged again at the start of conference play, and after beating Kentucky on the road on Jan. 20, they were 6-1 in the SEC and tied for first place.

Florida hit a midseason lull, losing six of its next eight conference games, before bouncing back again. The Gators beat Auburn, Alabama (on the road) and Kentucky in their final three regular-season games, and they were particularly impressive in the finale against the Wildcats. Florida led that game by 23 points with 16 minutes left and eased to an 80-67 victory.

The Gators' biggest asset is their precision. They rank seventh in the country in turnovers, giving the ball away just 9.8 times a game. They turned the ball over just eight times in the win over Auburn and six against Alabama.

Florida relies on balanced scoring. The key player is senior playmaking point guard Chris Chiozza, who had 10 assists in a win over Gonzaga and 12 in the victory over Auburn.

Florida is playing like the team that knocked off Gonzaga in November, which means it is capable of winning the SEC tournament. A possible quarterfinal game against Arkansas will be a challenge, but the Gators should make it to the semifinals at least.

2. Tennessee

Crystal LoGiudice/Associated Press

First Matchup: No. 7 Mississippi State/No. 10 LSU winner (Friday, 7 p.m., SEC Network)

Prediction: Win tournament title

Rick Barnes has brought Tennessee (23-7, 13-5) back to national prominence in his third season as the Volunteers head coach, and his team has been playing good basketball of late. Tennessee has won 11 of its last 13 games, and that stretch includes a road win against Kentucky on Feb. 6 that gave the Vols a season sweep of the Wildcats.

A November win over Purdue on a neutral court indicated the Vols might be pretty good, but losses to Arkansas and Auburn in their first two conference games put them in a hole. They responded to grab a share of the regular-season SEC title, the first time since 2008 it captured a conference crown.

Leading scorer Grant Williams had been in a bit of a slump, scoring more than eight points only twice in the final five games. But he scored 22 points before fouling out in the win over Georgia in the final game. Admiral Schofield has been on fire. He averaged 24 points over the final three games.

Tennessee should get past either LSU or Mississippi State in its opening tournament game and needs to be at its best to beat either Arkansas or Florida in the semifinals. Luckily for the Vols, they are at their best right now.

1. Auburn

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First Matchup: No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Texas A&M winner (Friday, 1 p.m., ESPN)

Prediction: Lose in the quarterfinals

Considering Auburn (25-6, 13-5) had not had a winning conference record in the past eight years and only one in the past 17 seasons, the Tigers' first regular-season conference championship since 1999 is sweet, even if they only captured a share of this year's.

However, the Tigers have not been the fearsome bunch lately that they were for most of the season. After beating Kentucky by 10 points on Feb. 14, the Tigers were 23-3 overall, 11-2 in the conference and ranked No. 10 in the nation. But that was followed by a road loss to South Carolina as Auburn lost three of its final five games. The Tigers had a two-game lead on Feb. 16 but ended up having to share the regular-season title with Tennessee.

The loss of Anfernee McLemore did not help. He was sidelined for the season because of a severe ankle injury suffered Feb. 17, per Khadrice Rollins of SI.com. He was the Tigers' rim protector, averaging 2.7 blocks per game, even though he averaged less than 20 minutes of playing time.

Auburn relies on three-point shooting, and the Tigers take a lot of them. They hit a very respectable 39.6 percent of their long-range shots through the first 25 games, but they were below that percentage in each of their final six games, making just 30 percent (51 of 170) over that stretch.

Bryce Brown had been 7-of-39 (17.9 percent) from long range in the four games prior to breaking out with an 8-of-12 performance in the finale against South Carolina. But Jared Harper remains mired in a shooting slump, having made just eight of 34 three-point attempts (23.5 percent) over the final six games. It is worth noting that when Harper makes at least 40 percent of his three-point shots, Auburn is 12-0.

Auburn's strengths are its fast pace and offensive firepower. The Tigers lead the SEC in scoring (84.0 points per game), three-pointers attempted (819) and three-pointers made (304). If the Tigers are not shooting well, they are in trouble.

A possible quarterfinal game against Texas A&M may eliminate the Tigers immediately.