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The New Year's Resolution for Every AP Top 25 Team

Brian PedersenDec 29, 2016

2016 hasn't been the greatest of years for many reasons, but in the sports world there has been no shortage of tremendous moments. In college basketball we got one of the best championship games ever in Villanova's victory over North Carolina in April, and since the 2016-17 season resumed in mid-November, we've been blessed with plenty of great performances and outcomes.

But now that we're turning to 2017 over the weekend, it's time to look ahead and see what we could do differently in the future.

Using the latest Associated Press Top 25 as a guide, we've picked out something that each of college basketball's top teams will strive to accomplish next year. In most cases, our choices relate to a part of their team that needs some improvement or needs to be more involved in how they operate moving forward.

No. 25 Florida

1 of 25

Make a few extra passes

Florida has a top-50 offense in terms of efficiency, shooting 45.8 percent and averaging 79.2 points per game. The Gators are doing it without much of their scoring coming off the pass.

In Thursday's strong 81-72 win at Arkansas to open SEC play, the Gators assisted on 13 of 30 made field goals, or 43.3 percent. They were assisting on 45.5 percent of makes coming into the game, which ranked 323rd in the nation and worst among ranked teams.

Senior Kasey Hill is dishing out a career-high 4.8 assists per game and junior Chris Chiozza averages 3.2 per game, ranking each in the top 15 in the SEC. The rest of the team has 56 assists.

No. 24 Notre Dame

2 of 25

Get to the line more

Notre Dame's two losses this season, to Villanova and Purdue in consecutive Saturday neutral-site games in December, saw the Fighting Irish's normally crisp field-goal shooting take a dive in the second half. Those games also saw them attempt a combined 14 free throws, but not getting many foul shots has been a season-long issue.

The Irish have taken 222 free throws in 13 games, just over 17 per game, and their free-throw-attempt rate (which charts the number of free-throw tries per field-goal attempt) is .279. That ranked 318th out of 351 Division I teams through Wednesday's 63-55 win over St. Peter's.

Even more frustrating is that Notre Dame is really good at free throws, its 84.7 percent accuracy tops in the country. All four players averaging double figures in scoring make at least 82.9 percent of their foul shots, with Matt Farrell's 96.6 percent rate good enough for fourth in D-I if he took more than 2.2 per game.

No. 23 Cincinnati

3 of 25

Leave the outside shooting to Jacob Evans

Cincinnati ranks second-worst among ranked teams in three-point shooting at 32.3 percent, only Oregon (31.9) less accurate from outside. Yet the Bearcats have one of the more deadly three-point assassins in Jacob Evans, who has made 24 of 57 threes for a 42.1 percent rate.

It's when other players try to shoot from deep is when Cincinnati has problems. The likes of Troy Caupain, Gary Clark and Kevin Johnson are a combined 25-of-110 including 1-of-6 in Wednesday's 56-50 win at Temple to open AAC play.

Cincinnati was 5-of-18 from three in that game, one of six games it's shot below 30 percent. Slightly more than 31 percent of the Bearcats' shots come from three, so it's not a big part of their offense. Maybe only Evans (who averages a team-best 15.7 points per game) should be launching from out there.

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No. 22 USC

4 of 25

Bring Bennie Boatwright back slowly

Off to its best start since going 16-0 in 1970-71, USC has won the last seven games without one of its brightest young stars. Boatwright averaged 11.5 points per game as a freshman and was scoring 10.8 points per game before suffering a knee injury in a Dec. 1 game against San Diego.

In his absence, the Trojans have been no worse for wear, with freshman Nick Rakocevic and senior Charles Buggs stepping in admirably for the 6'10” Boatwright. Rakocevic has averaged 6.9 points and 4.9 rebounds in 17.9 minutes per game since Boatwright got hurt, while Buggs had nine points and seven rebounds in 23 minutes against Cornell on Dec. 19. They've paired with sophomore Chimezie Metu to give USC a strong inside presence.

USC coach Andy Enfield told Scott Wolf of the Los Angeles Daily News he expects Boatwright to be back by the second half of the Pac-12 schedule. When he does return, there's no reason to rush him back with the way the Trojans' other frontcourt players are playing.

No. 21 Oregon

5 of 25

Keep spreading the wealth

Dillon Brooks is Oregon's go-to player, something he reaffirmed on Wednesday by taking the game-winning three-pointer with 0.8 seconds left to knock off previously unbeaten UCLA. That gave the junior a season-high 23 points and his fourth 20-point game, one more than anyone else on the team despite missing the Ducks' first three games recovering from a foot injury.

But the key to Oregon defending its Pac-12 regular-season and conference tournament titles lies in its offensive balance. Senior Chris Boucher is the team's leading scorer, at 13.9 points per game despite coming off the bench the last three games, and is one of five averaging at least 10.5 points per game.

Four scored in double figures against UCLA along with freshman Payton Pritchard, who has started the past 10 games and leads the Ducks in assists at 3.9 per game.

Brooks is still getting up to speed after missing several months, Wednesday being just the second time he's played more than 26 minutes. Having a reliable group around him has allowed that recovery to be made slowly instead of in a rush.

No. 20 Florida State

6 of 25

Figure out how to win on the road

Ten of Florida State's 14 games this season have been at home, all wins by an average of 22.6 points including Wednesday's 88-72 ACC opener against Wake Forest. FSU's other four games were neutral-site affairs.

The Seminoles' last true road game was in March, when they lost 81-67 at Valparaiso in the NIT and stretched their road losing streak to four. They were 4-8 on the road in 2015-16 and 16-28 in road games since 2012-13.

Not surprisingly, FSU hasn't made the NCAA tournament since 2011-12 and its 13-1 start will mean little if it struggles on the road in league play. That journey starts off with a tough one Saturday at Virginia.

No. 19 Saint Mary's

7 of 25

Do everything with March in mind

Ranked in every poll this season, the eight consecutive Top 25 appearances is the longest streak in school history, all signs point toward Saint Mary's making the NCAA tournament this season after missing out the previous three years. That includes in 2015-16 when the Gaels went 29-6 but had to settle for the NIT.

Thursday's 72-60 win at Loyola Marymount put the Gaels at 11-1 and upped their KenPom rating to 15th, moving them closer to lock status. But any losses they might incur along the way in West Coast Conference play will tighten their window to get into the field because their non-conference schedule was ranked 281st in the country and didn't produce enough quality victories outside of winning at Dayton in November.

Outside of Gonzaga and maybe BYU, there aren't any other chances to get notable wins for Saint Mary's but there are plenty of opportunities to fall. And if those losses pile up, the Gaels may need to get the WCC automatic bid to get into the NCAA tourney, a goal they should already be pushing for.

That being said, the wins and losses between now and early March won't matter nearly as much as ones they'd get in Las Vegas for the WCC tourney.

No. 18 Arizona

8 of 25

Determine Allonzo Trier's fate

Will we see Arizona's top returning player from a year ago in uniform this season? So far Allonzo Trier has been limited to sweats or street clothes for the Wildcats' first 13 games in 2016-17 without any explanation from the school as to why he's yet to play.

A Twitter search will find no shortage of rumors about why the sophomore guard has been held out, not to mention plenty of suggestions as to when (or if) he'll return to action. All the school has said is "no comment" on the matter, and meanwhile Arizona is down to seven available scholarship players due to injuries and other factors.

The Wildcats have four players averaging at least 30 minutes per game, and three of those are guards. Until Parker Jackson-Cartwright returns from an ankle injury—or there's resolution with Trier—there are no backups in the backcourt outside of walk-ons.

No. 17 Xavier

9 of 25

Get the ball inside a little more

With a four-guard lineup, it makes sense Xavier's perimeter players take the bulk of the shots. The quartet of Malcolm Bernard, Trevon Bluiett, J.P. Macura and Edmund Sumner are taking 69.2 percent of the field goals and providing 68.4 percent of the scoring.

Yet forwards Sean O'Mara and RaShid Gaston are quite efficient when given the chance to score, too. Gaston is shooting 59.7 percent and O'Mara 57.9 percent, but they've combined for just 129 field-goal attempts in 429 minutes of action.

Gaston and O'Mara were a combined 9-of-9 in Wednesday's Big East-opening win over Providence, scoring 20 points total.

No. 16 Indiana

10 of 25

Find a way to win without lights-out shooting

When Indiana opened the season with an overtime win against Kansas in Hawaii, it did so despite shooting 43.7 percent overall. Making 15 of 31 three-pointers helped overcome poor effort on easier shots.

Since then, though, when the Hoosiers fail to make at least 46.7 percent of their shots, they've been in big trouble. Wednesday's shocking home loss to Nebraska was the third time since the opener they've shot 44.1 percent or worse, the other occasions coming in losses to Butler and at Fort Wayne.

Overall, Indiana is eighth in the country in field-goal shooting at 51.2 percent and its 40.4 percent three-point rate is 20th-best. Five of its top seven scorers shoot at least 52.1 percent and four are 40 percent three-point shooters, though the numbers show it's been an all-or-nothing situation for the Hoosiers.

No. 15 Purdue

11 of 25

Continue to defend without fouling

Like most teams in the Top 25, Purdue gets to the free-throw line far more than its opponents. Only once this season, in the early home loss to defending national champion Villanova, did the Boilermakers take fewer foul shots.

The fact Purdue is doing this despite starting two big men in junior Isaac Haas and sophomore Caleb Swanigan is significant. Physical interior players, particularly those who are 7'2” and 297 pounds (Haas) and 6'9” and 260 pounds (Swanigan), tend to get singled out by referees and called for quite a few fouls, yet they have been whistled just 60 times in 733 minutes over 14 games.

Swanigan and wing Basil Smotherman have each fouled out once while Haas has picked up only four fouls once all season.

How careful is Purdue with its fouls? Opponents shoot .182 free throws per field-goal attempt, the lowest rate in Division I.

No. 14 Wisconsin

12 of 25

Keep Nigel Hayes away from the perimeter

We get it, everyone loves to shoot the three-pointer. That doesn't mean everyone should, including 6'8” 235-pound players who are much better suited playing closer to the basket.

Nigel Hayes has apparently had an epiphany on this, either that or coach Greg Gard has explicitly told him to stop shooting three-pointers like he had far too often the previous two seasons and the early half of 2016-17. He made 79 of 234 threes as a sophomore and junior and is 13-of-37 this season, but 31 of those attempts came in Wisconsin's first six games.

Over the last eight, though, he's been more concentrated on taking better shots which for him means further in. Hayes is shooting 60.6 percent during the Badgers' eight-game win streak, going 5-for-9 en route to 20 points in Tuesday's Big Ten opener against Rutgers. That included going 10-for-10 from the line, the sixth time in the previous eight games he's attempted at least eight foul shots thanks to more aggressiveness and less settling for jumpers.

No. 13 Butler

13 of 25

Better focus on rebounding

It ended up being a tie at 28 apiece, but down the stretch Butler's 76-73 loss Thursday at St. John's to open Big Ten play saw it once again struggle to pull down rebounds.

The Bulldogs had only two offensive rebounds in the final 10 minutes compared to four for St. John's, allowing the Red Storm to rally from a 10-point deficit. It was the seventh time this season Butler has failed to win the rebounding battle, the other occasions including its previous loss (at Indiana State) as well as narrow wins over Arizona, Cincinnati, Indiana, Northwestern and Utah. The Bulldogs easily won the rebounding battle in their five wins that were by more than 10 points.

This is nothing new for the Bulldogs, as in going 22-11 last season they were 17-1 when holding the edge on the boards and 5-10 when not.

Butler entered Thursday ranked 221st nationally in rebounding rate.

No. 12 Virginia

14 of 25

Give Kyle Guy more minutes

A veteran team that doesn't have to rely on freshmen for major minutes, Virginia starts a senior and three juniors. A trio of first-year players have logged an average of just over 40 minutes per game, with Guy the most-used at 17.7 which is sixth-most on the team.

But when projected out to 40 minutes, Guy's production warrants him getting more time on the court since he's been the Cavaliers' best offensive player.

The 6'3” guard is averaging 9.3 points per game on 56.7 percent shooting including 58.1 percent from three-point range. He's scored in double figures five times, including 17 points in a career-high 29 minutes in the Dec. 21 win at California. He had nine points in 19 minutes in Wednesday's ACC-opening win at Louisville.

Guy is a strong complement to senior London Perrantes in the backcourt, an aggressive player willing to drive the lane and draw contact. His 22 free-throw attempts (of which he's made 18) are tops on the team.

No. 11 West Virginia

15 of 25

Take better advantage of time at foul line

West Virginia doesn't give its opponents a chance to breath, constantly cycling in fresh bodies in order to continue pressing on defense and forcing turnovers left and right. That leads to plenty of transition opportunities, while in many other occasions those quick hands and pestering players on defense lead the opponent to commit fouls.

The Mountaineers are drawing more than 23 fouls per game, which has resulted in an average of 29 foul shots. They get 18.7 points per game from the line, but it would be much more if they were draining free throws at better than a 64.4 percent clip.

Of West Virginia's 10 most-used players, four are shooting at least 70 percent (including junior guard Jevon Carter, its most active steal man). But leading scorer Esa Ahmad is shooting 65 percent while Elijah Macon is hitting 61.3 percent and Brandon Watkins has made just 50 percent of his 28 attempts.

With the Mountaineers relying so much on creating chaos and scoring on the run, all opponents will need to do is foul in that situation to lessen the impact of those turnovers.

No. 10 Creighton

16 of 25

Give Justin Patton more touches

At 74.2 percent, Patton is third in the nation in field-goal shooting. The 6'11” redshirt freshman is shooting 75.6 percent on two-pointers and has made four of seven three-pointers, enabling him to score 12.7 points per game for the unbeaten Blue Jays.

Imagine how much he'd be scoring if he took more than 7.5 shots per game.

Patton has started every game this season for Creighton after being held out in 2015-16 in order to add weight to what is now a 215-pound frame. He still needs to get stronger to perform better on defense, but he's shown a great touch on his shots, including Wednesday when he was 8-of-13 for 17 points in a win over Seton Hall. That's one of only three games in which he's taken 10 or more shots compared to 20 times that leading scorers Marcus Foster and Maurice Watson have done so.

No. 9 North Carolina

17 of 25

Find a way to keep Isaiah Hicks on the court

Hicks is playing a career-high 23.5 minutes per game this season as the 6'8” senior has moved into a starting role. That number would be higher if North Carolina didn't have so many options in the frontcourt, but also if Hicks could figure out a way to stop committing fouls.

His 5.2 fouls per 40 minutes are actually the lowest of his career, which overall is at a 6.3 rate. This season he's fouled out twice and had at least four fouls in five games, with the Tar Heels losing twice and having their only two wins by single digits in there as well.

Hicks was particularly foul-prone during a mid-December stretch that saw him play only 46 total minutes against Davidson, Tennessee and Kentucky. When not having to sit, he's been quite effective, averaging 12.6 points and 5.2 rebounds while shooting a team-best 59.2 percent including 15 points and nine rebounds in Wednesday's win over Monmouth.

No. 8 Kentucky

18 of 25

Identify a second three-point shooter or restrict everyone but Malik Monk

Monk hit 5-of-7 three-pointers Thursday in Kentucky's SEC-opening 99-76 win at Ole Miss, upping his efficiency to 41.5 percent. He's hit 44 threes in 13 games, but the rest of the Wildcats have 52 makes (on 177 attempts).

Overall the Wildcats are shooting 33.9 percent, which is among the worst rates of any ranked team and far below what recent NCAA championship teams have managed from deep. Villanova shot 36.2 percent in winning it all last season, while Duke shot 38.7 percent in 2014-15. Kentucky's national championship team from 2011-12 shot 37.8 percent.

According to CBS Sports' Gary Parrish, after Kentucky went 5-of-22 from three in losing at Louisville, he noted that only two NCAA champions (Kansas in 1988 and Connecticut in 2011) shot worse than the Wildcats from the perimeter.

If Monk isn't hitting, the Wildcats aren't. Either find someone else who can nail that shot consistently to either account for the rare time Monk struggles, or just cut that out of the game plan altogether.

No. 7 Gonzaga

19 of 25

Find a bigger role for Zach Collins

Before Przemek Karnowski returned to action this season—and started playing like someone who hadn't missed nearly all of the previous year because of back surgery—the plan was for Collins to play a major role down low for Gonzaga as a freshman. The 7-footer is still getting valuable minutes but not nearly enough considering how he's played so far.

Collins had 12 points and six rebounds in 19 minutes Thursday in the Bulldogs' 92-62 win at Pepperdine, helping his team improve to 13-0. Those numbers fall in line with what Collins has done all season, averaging 11.0 points and 5.1 rebounds in just 17.1 minutes per game. He's played at least 14 minutes in every game, but never more than 21.

Overall Collins is shooting 72.7 percent overall and 73.8 percent from the foul line. His 67 field-goal attempts are seventh-most on the team, though his per-40 numbers (25.8 points, 11.8 rebounds) are tops on Gonzaga.

No. 6 Louisville

20 of 25

Find a go-to scorer

There's something to be said about having too much scoring balance. It's great that Louisville hasn't found itself in a situation where it's so dependent on one or two players that if those Cardinals get shut down they're in trouble, but the trade-off for that is there has yet to be someone willing to step up and put them team on his shoulders in big moments.

The Cardinals could have used someone like that in Wednesday's 61-53 home loss to Virginia to open ACC play. Virginia's pack-line defense is incredibly difficult to play against to begin with, but without having any assertive offensive players it's even tougher, something Louisville discovered by having no player score more than eight points.

Louisville's top three scorers—guards Donovan Mitchell and Quentin Snider, and forward Deng Adel—are shooting a combined 35.8 percent from the field. Three big men are shooting over 60 percent but none takes more than forward Jaylen Johnson's 6.5 shots per game, and against Virginia he was just 2-of-4 in 17 minutes.

Snider had 22 points in the Dec. 21 win over Kentucky, the only time this season Louisville has had a player reach the 20-point mark. It had 14 such instances in 2015-16, but 12 of those were by players no longer on the roster.

No. 5 Duke

21 of 25

Not let Grayson Allen's actions define the team

Duke is the most disliked college basketball program in the country; there's not really much debate about this. The last thing the Blue Devils need is to have one of its players add to that hatred by becoming known for tripping opponents, as Grayson Allen has the past two seasons.

And now that Allen has been suspended indefinitely for his latest incident, taking down an Elon player on Dec. 21, Duke has to head into ACC play without one of its most explosive players. But beyond losing a key guard and thinning the playing rotation, Allen's suspension has the potential to put the Blue Devils under an even bigger microscope than they already were.

There's also the concern over whether Allen's run-ins are part of a larger issue. After that Elon win, sophomore guard Luke Kennard said everyone on the team isn't "all the way consumed in winning" (per Stephen Schramm of the Fayetteville Observer) and that could lead to internal tensions as the season progresses.

No. 4 Baylor

22 of 25

Not overvalue early results

On paper, it's difficult to argue that any other team in the country has a better collection of wins than Baylor. In starting 12-0, the Bears have knocked off the likes of Louisville, Michigan State, Oregon and Xavier with the victory over Louisville coming after a major rally to win the Battle 4 Atlantis.

Those wins have shown this Baylor team is going to be a force to be reckoned with in Big 12 play, which starts Friday when it visits Oklahoma. But that will also be the first time in 2016-17 the Bears are playing a true road game while everyone else in the league has played on someone else's court at least once this season.

Does that mean Baylor is going to struggle when it hits the road? Not necessarily, but we can't say for sure until it does so. Oklahoma has struggled so far at 6-5, but the backing of a strong home crowd could give the Bears trouble, even more so if they're overconfident from how this season has started.

No. 3 Kansas

23 of 25

Focus on foul shooting in practice

Games can be won or lost at the foul line, and though this hasn't happened yet for Kansas it's quite possible if its horrible free-throw shooting continues.

The Jayhawks have shot 59.2 percent from the line during its 11-1 start, fourth-worst in Division I and considerably below their .713 rate from last season's Elite Eight team. It's difficult to imagine this Kansas squad will be able to get that far without either improving the foul shooting or avoiding close games altogether.

The latter doesn't seem possible in a Big 12 that features ranked foes Baylor and West Virginia, not to mention several hard-to-win-in venues like Iowa State's Hilton Coliseum. There will come times when the score is close and the clock is winding down, and Kansas will find itself at the line needing to convert to either hold a lead or narrow a margin.

Leading scorer Frank Mason and fellow point guard Devonte' Graham are doing their part, making 71.2 and 70 percent of their free throws, respectively. After that, though, the accuracy drops, and it's most noticeable in freshman wing Josh Jackson's 54.2 percent rate, which is lower than on two-pointers (58.8 percent). He has failed to make at least 50 percent of his free throws four times, including going 0-for-4 against Duke in the Champions Classic.

No. 2 UCLA

24 of 25

Win a conference title after starting 0-1

UCLA wasn't the favorite to win the Pac-12 entering this season—that was Oregon, with the Bruins projected third—but after a stellar preseason performance that included a win over then-No. 1 Kentucky, they have to be considered the the front-runner. And that should still be the case even after they opened conference play with a loss.

The Bruins fell 89-87 at Oregon on Wednesday, losing on a three-pointer with 0.8 seconds left. The game had all the makings of a conference championship and may be a preview of what we'll see in the Pac-12 tournament in March in Las Vegas.

That was UCLA's first loss after a 13-0 start, but it could have just as easily won had it put a little more effort in on defense. The Bruins remain one of the best offensive squads in the country, averaging 95.1 points per game on 54.9 percent shooting (first in Division I) including 42.9 percent on three-pointers (third-best), but their 97.9 defensive rating is the worst of any ranked team.

There are six teams in the Pac-12 that have top-100 offensive ratings, so being able to play some defense will help UCLA's push to earn its first regular-season title since 2012-13.

No. 1 Villanova

25 of 25

Not put too much stock in staying undefeated

Here's a bold prediction: Villanova will not finish this season with a perfect record and become the first unbeaten college basketball team since Indiana ran the table in 1975-76. That doesn't mean the Wildcats can't repeat as national champions, but to expect they'll do so without a loss is pointless.

Wednesday's 68-65 win over DePaul is Exhibit A for why Villanova won't go unbeaten. It trailed late in the second half, at home, to a team that figures to finish no better than ninth in the 10-team Big East. And much tougher games loom in the immediate future, starting with Saturday's trip to 10th-ranked (and fellow unbeaten) Creighton.

Only two teams have made it to the NCAA tournament without a loss in recent memory, that being Wichita State in 2013-14 and Kentucky in 2014-15. Looking back, the coaches from those teams will admit they wish they'd lost a game during the regular season in order to eliminate that narrative, and it stands to reason Villanova coach Jay Wright feels the same way.

All statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com, unless otherwise noted.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.

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