Duke vs. Kansas May Be a Title Game Preview, but Both Have Growing Pains Ahead
A preview of the national championship game could take place Tuesday night at Madison Square Garden when No. 1 Duke and No. 7 Kansas meet in the Champions Classic.
On paper, this is the most anticipated matchup of the nonconferenceĀ slate, as the Blue Devils and Jayhawks came into this season the most equipped to contend for a title. Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski brought in arguably his best recruiting class ever and returned a leading candidate for Player of the Year (Grayson Allen) along with several savvy veterans.
Kansas head coach Bill Self's best teams are usually built around experience, and this group combines one of the best veteran backcourts in America with Josh Jackson, the top-ranked recruit in the 2016 class, according to three of the four major recruiting services, including Scout.com.
TOP NEWS
Ranking Biggest Playoff Upsets Ever š¤Æ
Tatum Questionable for Game 7
KD Burner Saga Was 'Distraction'
Fun stuff for five days into the season, huh? The only issue is that paper looks like my dog got ahold of it.
Duke will playĀ without three of its top freshmen, including close-to-lock lottery picks Jayson Tatum (foot) and Harry Giles (knee). The Jayhawks are staring at a potential 0-2 start after dropping their opener Friday to Indiana in overtime, and for such a veteran team, they're a work in progress.
This matchup will be more fun if played again in April, but Tuesday night could help both coaches navigate the next few months and answer big questions facing both rosters.
Key questions for Duke
1. Can the Blue Devils play big?
Once healthy, this roster poses a dilemma for Krzyzewski: Should he abandon the small-ball lineups that have tortured opponents recently?
Duke has had its most efficient scoring teams of the kenpom.com eraāwhich dates back to 2001-02āthe last three years.Ā Each of the three squads spent most of the time with its top wing (Jabari Parker, then Justise Winslow and then Brandon Ingram) manning the power forward spot. Tatum offers the same kind of versatility. At 6'8", he's big enough to defend power forwards, and he becomes a huge mismatch on the offensive end when an opponent tries to check him with a big man.
The roster construction this year, however, suggests Krzyzewski will go back to a more traditional look. The pairing of Giles and Amile Jefferson (more on this later) gives Duke the chance to be elite defensively. Coach K also has solid options off the bench in Marques Bolden and Chase Jeter.
With both Giles and BoldenĀ (lower leg) out, Coach K has opted to go with the traditional look by starting Jeter and Jefferson together, but the early returns were not splendid.
In Duke's second game against Grand Canyon, the Blue Devils were much more efficient on both ends when they went small.Ā (Note: The final three minutes when Coach K emptied his bench did not factor into these numbers, nor does the opener against Marist, which KrzyzewskiĀ treated like an exhibition game based on minute distribution.)
| Small lineup (on offense) | 50 | 36 | 138.9 |
| Traditional lineup (on offense) | 38 | 37 | 102.7 |
| Small lineup (on defense) | 21 | 35 | 60.0 |
| Traditional lineup (on defense) | 37 | 40 | 92.5 |
The offense was much more free-flowing when Coach K went with a small lineup that had wing Matt Jones at power forward. Most half-court possessions began with four shooters around the three-point line, which is the case in this spread pick-and-roll look that gave Grand Canyon fits:
This is pick-your-poison for defenses. A two-man pick-and-roll with Allen or Frank Jackson is difficult to defend because both guards are excellent drivers and can knock down a three if their defender goes under the screen. Try to double-team the ball-handler, and Jefferson is open for an easy bucket on the roll. And then if defenses try to help off Jones or Luke Kennard, they leave accurate shooters wide open and spend the rest of the possession in recovery mode.
Duke's two-big attack was easier to guard. The Blue Devils started most of those possessions with a "Horns" look that featured both bigs set up at the elbows:
There was a discomfort level for the Duke guards while working out of this arrangement. Not only did the ball not move as crisply, but the big men also clogged up the lane and erased driving lanes that are always there in the small-ball attack.
Subbing Giles for Jeter will help alleviate some of these issues. Giles can shoot from the perimeter and space the floor. But Duke's offense will still probably have its best flow when Coach K downsizes, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him go that route early and often against Kansas.
2. Can Duke guard?
The Blue Devils were mediocre last season on the defensive endāthe worst for Coach K in the kenpom eraāand struggled for much of the 2015 national championship campaign until somehow turning into a juggernaut on that end during the NCAA tournament.
The main issues the last few years have been perimeter defense and trying to stay in front of slashers. Kansas presents a challenge in this department with five guys in its rotation who can penetrate off the bounce, led by Frank Mason III, Devonte' Graham and Jackson.
Duke's starting lineup has two weak links in Kennard and Jeter. Kennard struggles to keep anyone in front of him, and Jeter looks uncomfortable when pulled away from the bucket to defend against a ball screen. The Jayhawks will look to exploit both.
Giles' addition would help hide most weaknesses. Jefferson and Giles are the best two defenders on Duke's roster and are versatile enough to allow the Blue Devils to switch every ball screen if Coach K so chooses. That's the route he's going with Jefferson. (Duke's small-ball lineup is switching everything.)
The way to take advantage of that approach is to post up whichever guard gets switched. That's what Grand Canyon does with Jackson in the play below:
But when Giles is on the floor, Duke will have two big men who defend on the perimeter and serve as rim protectors, so one of the two should be able to patrol the paint at all times.
The closest college basketball has seen to unleashing two bigs on the floor with that kind of defensive versatility was the combo of Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns for Kentucky two years ago. Those Wildcats had the third-best adjusted defensive efficiency of the kenpom era.
Duke had issues early against Grand Canyon and struggled to contain point guard Shaq Carr, who scored 18 points and had eight assists.Ā For the Blue Devils to swap some offense for the chance at an elite defense, they need their guards to make it happen, and Tuesday presents a tough first challenge.
Key questions for Kansas
1. Will the Real Josh Jackson show up?Ā
Jackson's line in the opener (9 PTS, 6 REB, 2 AST, 1 BLK and 1 STL) was forgettable, considering expectations, but he played well for a half. He ran into problems in the second half when he got impatient because he wasn't scoring and started taking bad shots. He finished 3-of-11 from the field, and one of those makes (a transition three) was a questionable shot.
The real Jackson is not one who relies on his perimeter jumper but rather does a lot of little things to impact the game and slashes to the rim offensively. Jackson is the best ball-handling wing Self has ever rostered, and so the coach will end up using him differently than guys like Brandon Rush, Xavier Henry, Ben McLemore, Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre.
The Jayhawks need to unleash a version of Jackson closer to Mason than any of their past wings. Mason usually only takes threes when he's wide-open, and he looks to attack the paint at any opportunity. That kind of approach netted him 30 points against Indiana.
Jackson is special when he gets in space, and at 6'8", he has a major advantage over the 5'11" Mason when it comes to finishing at the rim. Self will likely try to do some things to isolate himāhe told B/R this offseason he plans to throw him the ball some in the mid-postābut Jackson also needs to wait for his opportunities.
Those opportunities will be there when he's playing alongside Mason and Graham. KU's best offense last year was a version that featured Mason, Graham, Wayne SeldenĀ Jr. and Perry Ellis penetrating and pitching until a three opened up or they slashed to the rim after a defender sold himself out on a hard closeout.
Self will move Jackson around a lot. The freshman willĀ see significant time as a small-ball 4 in addition to playing on the wing, and Self played him a few minutes at point guard in KU's second exhibition game. That makes his role more complex than that of most freshmen. But once Jackson settles in, he'll add a ton of value to the Jayhawks, whether he's scoring or not.
Of course, it would help him gain confidence if he could get some easy buckets early against Duke, and that should be a key for Kansas in the opening minutes.
2. AreĀ KU's defense and rebounding an actual concern?
It's not unusual for Self's defense to be a step behind at this point in the year. The Jayhawks are only 1-4 in the Champions Classic, and their defense in these games has usually been nowhere near as stingy as we're used to seeing from Self's teams.
Indiana put 103 points on Kansas by dominating the offensive glass (18 boards) and raining 15 threes (48.4 percent).
The rebounding should be the only long-term concern Self has for this group. It has been an issue throughout the preseasonāDivision II Washburn beat KU on the boards 45-44āand it's giving Self his only lineup dilemma.
Should Self go with the traditional look he's always employed or slide Jackson to the 4 and go small?
"If Carlton [Bragg Jr.] doesn't rebound the ball or give us an inside presence, how would we be better off playing him than a guard?" Self told Bleacher Report last month of the 6'10" forward. "If he wants to be a guard and doesn't do those things as well as the guards...we could look at a situation where we're going to play one big."
That was before Kansas had even played an exhibition game, and Bragg has not done himself any favors since. He struggled mightily in KU's exhibition opener, particularly on the boards, with two rebounds in 14 minutes.Ā
Bragg grabbed only one defensive rebound in 18 minutes against Indiana. He finished around the rim well, making 6-of-7 shots, but even though at 240 he's listed 20 pounds heavier than a season ago, he looked like the same outmatched freshman on the boards against IU's frontcourt. Duke might do Kansas a favor by going small and allowing Jackson to guard a wing.
The other area where Kansas struggled was containing dribble penetration. The Hoosiers got a lot of their open three-point looks by breaking down KU's defense off the dribble and taking advantage of over-helping:
This was an issue last year for KU until Landen Lucas emerged as the starting center. The Jayhawks' perimeter defense seemed to improve with Lucas, as they knew they had a rim protector behind them whom they could funnel the drivers to and had faith he would be in the right spot. Ellis was not a rim protector but provided the same kind of reliability.
It will takeĀ time to build that trust this year, and it's scary to face another three-point bombing machine in the second game of the season. Just like the Hoosiers, the Blue Devils like to spread it out and wait for the defense to collapse and a three-point look to open up. But the one advantage the Devils do not have is a big man like Indiana's Thomas Bryant, who hit two early threes on KU and pulled Lucas out to the perimeter.
Duke without three of its rotation players is still one of the most potent offenses in college basketball, so KU's defense and rebounding needs to get better, fast, to avoid a 0-2 start.
'EVERYBODY JUST RELAX!'
That will be the message to the fanbase that loses on Tuesday night.
It would be easier to swallow for Duke because of the missing pieces, but Kansas should also realize losses in November don't mean a damn thing. Oklahoma smacked Villanova by 23 points in Hawaii last December, but the Wildcats returned the favor at the Final Four.
Coach K will figure out the best lineups to use, and the Jayhawks could still end up a No. 1 seed even if they fall to 0-2. The lessons learned for a potential rematch in April will be far more valuable than the result.
C.J. Moore covers college basketball and football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on TwitterĀ @CJMooreBR.Ā Ā
