Under-the-Radar College Basketball Teams Most Likely to Do Damage in 2016-17
Not knowing who college basketball's championship favorites and top contenders are either means you haven't been paying attention this offseason—which is understandable considering how long it is—or aren't aware that this list is often made up of the same teams each season.
A quick look at the early odds to win the 2016-17 title, per Odds Shark, has the usual suspects at or near the top: Arizona, Duke, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan State, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Same goes for 2016 Final Four qualifier Oregon and defending national champion Villanova, both of whom return almost their entire teams for this season.
Those are the known quantities. What about the unknown ones, or at least those who won't be playing in the spotlight from the outset? There are always some under-the-radar teams in college basketball, ones you don't think will be in the mix when the season starts but end up doing some damage.
Who might those teams be for 2016-17? Follow along as we suggest some potential surprises.
Clemson Tigers
1 of 20
2015-16 record: 17-14, 10-8 ACC
Key returners: Jaron Blossomgame, Gabe DeVoe, Donte Grantham, Avry Holmes, Sidy Djitte
Notable additions: Shelton Mitchell, Marcquise Reed, Scott Spencer, Elijah Thomas
Clemson made some noise early in the ACC schedule last season, starting 5-1 in the league thanks to wins over ranked Duke, Louisville and Miami (Florida) teams as well as over eventual Final Four team Syracuse. But the Tigers couldn't sustain that momentum and ended up missing the NCAA tournament for the fifth year in a row; then, their best player declared for the NBA draft.
But Jaron Blossomgame ended up coming back after testing the waters, and with a much better supporting cast around him, this could be Clemson's chance to disrupt the ACC status quo for real.
It will start again with Blossomgame, a 6'7" forward who averaged 18.7 points and 6.7 rebounds per game while shooting 51.3 percent overall and 44.1 percent from three-point range in 2015-16. He managed those numbers despite Clemson's next three-highest scorers shooting 38.4 percent or worse, but now he'll have a much deeper and talented group around him to take the pressure off.
Shelton Mitchell, Marcquise Reed and Elijah Thomas are all transfers, with Reed a 6'3" guard who scored 15.1 points per game in 2014-15 at Robert Morris. Thomas, a 6'9" forward, will be eligible at midseason after coming over from Texas A&M.
Creighton Blue Jays
2 of 20
2015-16 record: 20-15, 9-9 Big East
Key returners: Cole Huff, Maurice Watson Jr., Isaiah Zierden
Notable additions: Marcus Foster, Kobe Paras, Justin Patton
Creighton was a regular player on the national stage a few years back when Doug McDermott was scoring in bunches as he rose up the NCAA career points chart. The Blue Jays made the third round of the NCAA tournament in three consecutive seasons, but the year after he graduated, they dipped to 14-19 and looked overmatched in the Big East.
But coach Greg McDermott has turned his program around thanks to some key transfers, one who made a major impact with Creighton last season and another who figures to do the same this year.
Maurice Watson Jr., who came over from Boston University, chipped in 14.1 points, 3.4 rebounds and 6.5 assists in 2015-16, but there wasn't a reliable scorer for him to feed. That could change this season with Marcus Foster becoming eligible after sitting out his transfer year from Kansas State, where he averaged 14.1 points and shot 37.3 percent from three-point range over two seasons.
The Blue Jays also can turn to Justin Patton, a 7-footer who redshirted as a freshman in 2015-16, as well as Kobe Paras, a 6'6" guard who originally signed with UCLA but ended up in Omaha, Nebraska, this summer.
Georgia Bulldogs
3 of 20
2015-16 record: 20-14, 10-8 SEC
Key returners: J.J. Frazier, Yante Maten, Juwan Parker
Notable additions: Tyree Crump, Pape Diatta, Jordan Harris
Georgia has won at least 20 games in three consecutive seasons, which last happened in the mid-1990s. But only one of those years—2014-15—involved an NCAA tournament, and that ended quickly.
Mark Fox's eighth season with Bulldogs has the potential to be a breakout one, assuming the high-scoring duo of J.J. Frazier and Yante Maten can get some help from the rest of the roster. That pair combined to score 33.4 points per game, but no other returning player averaged more than four points last season.
Juwan Parker missed all of last season and half of 2014-15 with a torn Achilles, and if he's able to take on a bigger role, he can complement Frazier in the backcourt. Same goes for Tyree Crump, a 4-star combo guard who was rated No. 75 in the 2016 recruiting class.
"He is, by far, their highest-rated recruit since convincing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to stay close to home back in 2011, and he has the potential to come in and immediately replace Kenny Gaines—and then some," Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller wrote.
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Grand Canyon Antelopes
4 of 20
2015-16 record: 27-7, 11-3 Western Athletic
Key returners: Joshua Braun, DeWayne Russell, Keonta Vernon
Notable additions: Shaq Carr, Darion Clark
The concept of "doing damage," as is the central theme of this piece, doesn't just apply to teams that could end up in the NCAA tournament. Grand Canyon would have a great chance to get there if it were eligible, but the Antelopes are in their fourth year of transitioning from Division II and thus can't get in until 2017-18.
That aside, the lineup Dan Majerle has put together in Phoenix is one that will be among the favorites to win the Western Athletic Conference and bug the heck out of some quality nonconference opponents it will face.
Joshua Braun ranked fifth nationally in offensive rating in 2015-16, averaging 16.6 points and 5.2 rebounds per game. He's one of three returning starters, a group that figures to get a boost from the arrival of graduate transfer forward Darion Clark from USC.
Grand Canyon opens the season at Duke and visits Arizona, but it also gets Louisville and San Diego State at its arena in December.
Harvard Crimson
5 of 20
2015-16 record: 14-16, 6-8 Ivy League
Key returners: Siyani Chambers, Zena Edosomwan, Corey Johnson, Tommy McCarthy, Corbin Miller
Notable additions: Bryce Aiken, Robert Baker, Chris Lewis, Seth Towns
Harvard made four consecutive NCAA tournament appearances from 2012 to 2015, pulling off upsets in 2013 and 2014 while establishing itself as the gold standard from the Ivy League. Then last year happened, with the combination of graduation and an injury to Siyani Chambers leading to the Crimson's first losing record since Tommy Amaker's first season in 2007-08.
Since the Ivy League tends not to get much attention until that NCAA tourney bracket is announced, Harvard was basically forgotten about. But it will be hard to ignore it this season with Chambers back—he had to withdraw from school in order to retain his eligibility since Ivy League schools don't allow for redshirting—along with three other starters as well as a tremendous recruiting class unprecedented for a non-power program.
The Crimson's seven-man class ranked 24th nationally and features a pair of 4-star prospects in point guard Bryce Aiken and power forward Chris Lewis. Aiken chose them over Miami (Florida) and Seton Hall, while Lewis also had several major offers.
Illinois Fighting Illini
6 of 20
2015-16 record: 15-19, 5-13 Big Ten
Key returners: Tracy Abrams, Jalen Coleman-Lands, Michael Finke, Malcolm Hill, Maverick Morgan, Mike Thorne Jr.
Notable additions: Te'Jon Lucas, Kipper Nichols
The Big Ten is again quite top-heavy, with several legitimate national title contenders such as Indiana, Michigan State and Wisconsin. But after that, there's a serious drop-off thanks to a number of teams with big question marks heading into 2016-17, making it possible for a team from the bottom half to make a push upward.
Illinois is hoping it can be the one to take advantage of that mid-tier uncertainty, assuming injuries don't once again wreak havoc on its plans.
Tracy Abrams has been waiting forever to play his senior year—the 6'2" point guard missed the past two seasons because of injury. Well-regarded post Mike Thorne Jr. was limited to only eight games in 2015-16 because of knee surgery after transferring from Charlotte. Assuming both are fully healthy, the Fighting Illini will have one of the better six-man rotations in the league.
Getting additional help from their freshmen could be what puts them over the edge. Te'Jon Lucas can keep Abrams from getting overworked, while Kipper Nichols, who originally signed with Tulane but never played there, can be a presence on the wing.
And it also helps Illinois has the Big Ten's top returning scorer in Malcolm Hill, a senior who averaged 18.1 points per game last season.
Long Beach State 49ers
7 of 20
2015-16 record: 20-15, 12-4 Big West
Key returners: Justin Bibbins, Gabe Levin
Notable additions: Jordan Griffin, Evan Payne
The Big West Conference has produced six different NCAA tournament qualifiers in as many seasons, and the last two champions (Hawaii, UC Irvine) figure to be in rebuilding mode because of major talent departures—and in Hawaii's case, a postseason ban. That opens the door for Long Beach State to get back in for the first time since 2012, and if that happens, the 49ers could be a dangerous out.
The reason for this is twofold. First, coach Dan Monson has made Long Beach a haven for transfers. His latest team is boosted by a pair of former Loyola Marymount players including Evan Payne, a 6'1" guard who averaged 18 points per game as a sophomore in 2014-15.
And there's also the ridiculously tough schedule Monson puts the 49ers through before Big West play, with games scheduled against Kansas, Louisville, North Carolina, Texas, UCLA, Washington and Wichita State. They'll be lucky to win one or two of those games, if any, but the experience gained from those contests would be invaluable if they get to take on another power-conference team in March.
Nevada Wolf Pack
8 of 20
2015-16 record: 24-14, 10-8 Mountain West
Key returners: Lindsey Drew, D.J. Fenner, Elijah Foster, Cameron Oliver
Notable additions: Josh Hall, Devearl Ramsey
One of the most well-respected coaches in basketball, Eric Musselman has run programs in professional leagues of varying levels and oversaw international teams representing their countries. But Nevada is his first gig in charge of a college program, and after a promising first season, the sky is the limit in Reno.
Last year's Wolf Pack team won the College Basketball Invitational, a 16-team postseason tournament that gave it an extra six games of experience that his returning players can build off of. It led Cameron Oliver to enter the NBA draft after the 6'8" forward averaged 19 points, 10.3 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game during the CBI. He ultimately decided to return to school.
Josh Hall and Devearl Ramsey are the centerpieces of a top-60 recruiting class that was best in the Mountain West, a group that should contribute immediately and give Nevada a strong shot at its first NCAA tournament bid since 2007.
New Mexico Lobos
9 of 20
2015-16 record: 17-15, 10-8 Mountain West
Key returners: Obij Aget, Elijah Brown, Tim Williams
Notable additions: Jalen Harris, Connor MacDougall
Two straight Mountain West teams and neither of them is San Diego State? Well, the Aztecs don't exactly qualify as "under-the-radar" since they made six consecutive NCAA tournament appearances before missing out this past season. And while SDSU is again going to be a contender, the league looks to have more depth in 2016-17 than a year ago.
The MWC was a multi-bid league for more than a decade, getting five teams into the NCAA tourney in 2013, and it has a chance to be again if New Mexico can return to the form that saw it be part of those qualifiers four times between 2010 and 2014.
Having one of the most productive returning tandems in the nation certainly helps get the ball rolling. Elijah Brown and Tim Williams combined for 38.5 points, 12.9 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game last season. If Jalen Harris can replace Cullen Neal at point guard and Obij Aget and Connor MacDougall complement Williams well in the frontcourt, the Lobos will be dangerous.
Ohio Bobcats
10 of 20
2015-16 record: 23-12, 11-7 Mid-American
Key returners: Antonio Campbell, Jordan Dartis, Kenny Kaminski, Jaaron Simmons
Notable additions: Rodney Culver Jr.
The last time Ohio made the NCAA tournament, a veteran team became just the fifth No. 13 seed to make the Sweet 16, and John Groce parlayed that into the Illinois job. Current coach Saul Phillips has experience using NCAA tourney success to step up in the world: His final North Dakota State team upset Oklahoma in 2014 before he left to take over the Bobcats.
His first Ohio team won 10 games, but the second was two wins from the Big Dance. Now Phillips has an experienced team with arguably the best mid-major trio in the nation.
Antonio Campbell, Kenny Kaminski and Jaaron Simmons combined to score 45.2 points per game last season, with Campbell averaging a double-double and Simmons ranking third nationally in assists per game (7.9). Kaminski, a transfer from Michigan State, is the glue that holds that inside-out duo together.
You won't hear much about Ohio during the regular season since Georgia Tech is the only power-conference team it will face. But if the Bobcats survive the unpredictable MAC tournament, there won't be many big schools excited to be paired with them in the NCAA tourney.
Princeton Tigers
11 of 20
2015-16 record: 22-7, 12-2 Ivy League
Key returners: Amir Bell, Devin Cannady, Henry Caruso, Steven Cook, Pete Miller, Spencer Weisz
Notable additions: None
The Ivy League's lack of a conference tournament has been both hailed and criticized over the years—the former because it means the best team from the regular season is ensured of representing the conference, while the latter because it's essentially eliminated it from ever getting more than one school in the NCAA tourney.
The Ivy has added a four-team postseason tourney for 2016-17, just in time for a year in which there are two legitimately strong teams among the ranks.
We've already chronicled Harvard and its abundance of promising young talent; now comes the Ivy's most veteran team. Princeton returns almost its entire roster from last season's second-place team, with three of the four players who averaged double figures heading into their senior campaigns.
That includes Henry Caruso, a 6'4" forward who is smaller than a lot of guards but led Princeton in rebounding while shooting 52.2 percent overall and 44.6 percent from three-point range.
Princeton hasn't reached the NCAA tournament since 2011, when it nearly upset a Kentucky team that reached the Final Four.
Rhode Island Rams
12 of 20
2015-16 record: 17-15, 9-9 Atlantic 10
Key returners: Jarvis Garrett, Kuran Iverson, Hassan Martin, E.C. Matthews, Jared Terrell
Notable additions: Mike Layssard Jr., Stanford Robinson
Dan Hurley won 25 games in his second season at Wagner and 23 in his third year at Rhode Island, quickly developing a reputation of being able to turn around struggling programs that's led him to get mentioned for bigger jobs. Fox Providence's Yianni Kourakis reported Hurley was a candidate for the St. John's opening that went to Chris Mullin last season, while Hurley also turned down a shot to take over Rutgers this past spring.
He isn't likely to stay with the Rams forever, but for now, he seems resigned to sticking around until he gets them into the NCAA tournament. Many thought that would happen in 2015-16 before E.C. Matthews suffered a season-ending injury in the opening game last November. That was among several notable ailments that afflicted Rhode Island, yet it still managed to earn a .500 record in the competitive Atlantic 10.
Rhode Island's NCAA hopes have carried over to this season, with four starters back in addition to Jarvis Garrett. It also adds Stanford Robinson, a transfer from Indiana who averaged 13.3 points and 6.1 rebounds per 40 minutes in two seasons with the Hoosiers, and Mike Layssard Jr., a 6'9", 280-pound freshman.
Saint Mary's Gaels
13 of 20
2015-16 record: 29-6, 15-3 West Coast
Key returners: Evan Fitzner, Calvin Hermanson, Jock Landale, Emmett Naar, Dane Pineau, Joe Rahon
Notable additions: Jordan Ford, Elijah Thomas
Saint Mary's has made five NCAA tournament appearances since 2005 and won the West Coast Conference regular-season title last season, but in most people's eyes, that league is Gonzaga and a bunch of extras in a crowd scene. But the Gaels beat the Bulldogs twice during the year before falling to them in the WCC tournament final, and because of a weak non-league schedule, they were relegated to the NIT, where they reached the quarterfinals.
And that same team is basically intact for 2016-17, as Saint Mary's didn't have any seniors, and its top eight scorers have returned. There are also seven players from Australia, where the Gaels have been feeding their roster for years and where current standouts Jock Landale, Emmett Naar and Dane Pineau hail from.
Just like last year, though, all that could be holding Saint Mary's back is its schedule. Games at Dayton and Stanford are all the Gaels have to help their resume outside of two or three meetings with Gonzaga.
Siena Saints
14 of 20
2015-16 record: 21-13, 13-7 MAAC
Key returners: Brett Bisping, Nico Clareth, Lavon Long, Javion Ogunyemi, Marquis Wright
Notable additions: None
Monmouth and its "Bench Mob" will again draw most of the attention from the MAAC, but like last season, that underrated league is about more than just one flashy team. Iona ended up winning the league title after finishing second during the regular season, and a few games behind it was a Siena team that is ready for its close-up.
The Saints made three straight NCAA tournament appearances under Fran McCaffery from 2008 to 2010 before going through some thin years. Coach Jimmy Patsos' team improved by 10 wins this past season and returns its top five scorers, including Brett Bisping, a 6'8" forward who averaged 15.9 points and 10.4 rebounds as a junior.
Patsos, one of the more animated coaches in the game, took Loyola to the NCAA tourney in 2012.
TCU Horned Frogs
15 of 20
2015-16 record: 12-21, 2-16 Big 12
Key returners: Vladimir Brodziansky, JD Miller, Brandon Parrish, Karviar Shepherd, Malique Trent, Chris Washburn, Kenrich Williams
Notable additions: Jaylen Fisher, Josh Parrish, Alex Robinson
TCU's move from the Mountain West to the Big 12 was completely driven by football, though the school hoped at some point that promotion would lead to good things for a men's basketball program that hasn't made the NCAA tournament since 1998. Instead, all it's resulted in is the Horned Frogs ninth or 10th in the league in all four seasons.
But that was under Trent Johnson, who could never get anything going in Fort Worth. New coach Jamie Dixon has shown he can win consistently and do so despite an upgrade in conferences. While he was at Pittsburgh, the program moved from the Big East to the ACC, and he got the Panthers to two more NCAA tourneys.
Dixon inherits a roster that features six of last season's top seven scorers and also gets back Kenrich Williams, who missed 2015-16 with a knee injury after a strong freshman campaign. His recruiting impact was immediately felt, too, with former UNLV 4-star signee Jaylen Fisher ready to take over at point guard.
Valparaiso Crusaders
16 of 20
2015-16 record: 30-7, 16-2 Horizon
Key returners: Shane Hammink, Alec Peters, Tevonn Walker
Notable additions: Derrik Smits
As is the case with most mid-major programs, success is hard to maintain since star players don't come along every year and bigger schools often pluck away the coaches at their peaks. Valparaiso faces half of that scenario for 2016-17 with Bryce Drew leaving for Vanderbilt, but assistant Matt Lottich has taken over, and he has the luxury of having the most complete player in the country back for his senior year.
Alec Peters entered the NBA draft but withdrew just before the deadline, hoping to build off a 2015-16 campaign that saw him average 18.4 points and 8.4 rebounds per game on 50.5 percent shooting overall and 44 percent from three-point range.
He's graduated from Valpo and could have transferred to a bigger program to enhance his profile for scouts, though he told College Basketball Talk's Rob Dauster those scouts advised him to stick with the Crusaders.
"Be a guy at a mid-major school next year that’s dominating at my level," Peters said. "Show that I can put up 20 and 10 and dominate a game against a bigger opponents when we play them. Lead my team farther into the NCAA tournament this year."
Valpo lost a good amount of the team that reached the NIT final this past season, but as long as Peters is around, it should still be a favorite in the Horizon League.
Virginia Tech Hokies
17 of 20
2015-16 record: 20-15, 10-8 ACC
Key returners: Seth Allen, Justin Bibbs, Kerry Blackshear Jr., Chris Clarke, Ahmed Hill, Zach LeDay, Justin Robinson
Notable additions: Seth LeDay
When Seth Greenberg was running Virginia Tech from 2003 to 2012, the Hokies were regularly considered a potential sleeper team in the ACC and nationally, yet only once could he get them into the NCAA tournament. By the time Buzz Williams surprisingly left Marquette for Blacksburg in 2014, the program had bottomed out, but it's been on the uptick ever since.
The Hokies' 10 ACC wins last year were their most since 2010 and were two more than in the previous three seasons. Six of the top seven scorers from that team have returned, with Zach LeDay coming off a standout junior year in which he averaged 15.5 points and 7.9 rebounds.
Younger brother Seth LeDay, a 3-star junior college transfer, provides some added heft in the frontcourt, while Ahmed Hill returns after missing 2015-16 with a knee injury. The 6'5" guard shot 38.6 percent from three-point range as a freshman.
Washington Huskies
18 of 20
2015-16 record: 19-15, 9-9 Pac-12
Key returners: David Crisp, Noah Dickerson, Malik Dime, Matisse Thybulle
Notable additions: Markelle Fultz
Last season, Washington became the first team with multiple first-round NBA draft picks not to make the NCAA tournament since Kentucky in 2013. Despite Marquese Chriss and Dejounte Murray as well as 20-point scorer Andrew Andrews, the Huskies failed to make the tourney for the fifth year in a row.
So why should this underachieving program be considered dangerous for 2016-17 with all that talent moving on? Because quite a bit of it is still around, since Washington's roster last season featured eight freshmen—five of whom are back—as well as a raw junior college big man (Malik Dime) who could have a breakout season after showing promise a year ago.
Oh, and there's also Markelle Fultz, the top-rated combo guard in the 2016 class and the No. 5 overall prospect. DraftExpress has him pegged as the No. 1 pick in the 2017 NBA draft, while NBADraft.net puts him as the No. 4 selection.
If Fultz is as good as advertised, combined with the returning Huskies, this could be the team to break that NCAA drought.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
19 of 20
2015-16 record: 18-16, 8-10 Conference USA
Key returners: Justin Johnson
Notable additions: Willie Carmichael, Que Johnson, Junior Lomomba, Jabari McGhee, Pancake Thomas
You're going to be hearing a lot about Western Kentucky in 2016-17, maybe more than at any time since Darrin Horn coached the Hilltoppers to 29 wins and the Sweet 16 in 2008. They've made it to the NCAA tournament three other times since then but were never much of a threat the last two appearances under Ray Harper.
Harper was replaced with Rick Stansbury, the former Mississippi State coach who spent the last two seasons on Billy Kennedy's staff, where his recruiting acumen helped the Aggies land big prospects. He's already doing that with Western Kentucky, getting a commitment from 2017 5-star center Mitchell Robinson, but even more impressive are the transfers he's picked up for this season.
Pancake Thomas averaged 18.9 points per game last season at Hartford, Junior Lomomba started 34 games at Providence in 2015-16 and Que Johnson shot 40.4 percent from three-point range at Washington State. They join leading scorer and rebounder Justin Johnson to form a team that instantly jumps to the top of the list in Conference USA.
Winthrop Eagles
20 of 20
2015-16 record: 23-9, 13-5 Big South
Key returners: Bjorn Broman, Xavier Cooks, Josh Davenport, Keon Johnson, Roderick Perkins
Notable additions: Anders Broman
Knowledgeable college football fans will remember when Winthrop was regarded as one of the more dangerous mid-major teams in March, a program that made the NCAA tournament nine times in a 12-year span from 1999 to 2010. The first seven of those came under the guidance of Gregg Marshall, now the face behind Wichita State's rise to national elite status.
Pat Kelsey is the second coach the Eagles have had since Marshall left, and while he's averaged 20.7 wins the last three seasons, that hasn't included an NCAA bid. Instead, their seasons have ended each time in the Big South tourney final.
Last year's Winthrop team had three players average at least 14.7 points per game, two of whom are back. Keon Johnson and Xavier Cooks form the nucleus of a relatively experienced squad that figures to be in the mix once again for the Big South championship. If it gets through this time, the memories of Winthrop's near-upset of No. 2 Tennessee in 2006 and the win over No. 5 Notre Dame in 2007 will resurface.
All statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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