Ranking the Most Drastic Offseason Makeovers Ahead of the 2016-17 CBB Season
With Jamal Murray, Tyler Ulis and Skal Labissiere all declaring for the 2016 NBA draft, Kentucky is facing one of the biggest offseason roster transformations in men's college basketball for 2016-17. The Wildcats are one of seven teams losing at least 75 percent of their scoring from last season.
But that's nothing compared to the makeover Hawaii has to figure out after losing 2,545 of its 2,620 points from last season.
Some of these teams (Kentucky, Michigan State and Gonzaga, in particular) are still in great shape for the upcoming season due to both the quantity and quality of players added to combat the attrition. But most of the teams on this list might want to consider already looking ahead to 2017-18, because this year is going to be a disaster.
The following rankings are based solely on percentage of points lost—whether due to graduation, transfer, draft declaration, dismissal, injury or anything in between—by teams that won at least 16 games last season. We found a total of 19 teams with that minimum win threshold that need to replace at least 66 percent of their scoring from 2015-16.
19. Oklahoma Sooners
1 of 19
Percentage of Points Lost: 66.3
Noteworthy Players Lost: Buddy Hield (925 points; graduated), Isaiah Cousins (468 points; graduated), Ryan Spangler (376 points; graduated), Dinjiyl Walker (122 points; graduated)
Key Returning Players: Jordan Woodard (481 points), Khadeem Lattin (206 points), Dante Buford (126 points), Christian James (102 points)
Oklahoma is in better shape than most of the teams on this list. Jordan Woodard is a quality lead guard, Christian James is a strong breakout candidate, and freshmen Kameron McGusty and Kristian Doolittle should do a lot to keep this team competitive.
But when you lose the highest-scoring player since Doug McDermott, two other starters and a key reserve, a makeover is inevitable.
Buddy Hield is obviously the one the Sooners will miss the most, but replacing Ryan Spangler could be equally challenging. In addition to needing significantly more offense out of Khadeem Lattin, they'll need either Dante Buford or Jamuni McNeace to step up as a starter just to remain competent in the frontcourt.
Spangler was Oklahoma's quiet rock, averaging at least 9.6 points and 8.2 rebounds per game over the past three seasons. Whether Lon Kruger has an ace up his sleeve who can replicate those numbers will determine just how far the Sooners slide after an entire season spent ranked in the AP Top 10.
18. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
2 of 19
Percentage of Points Lost: 67.8
Noteworthy Players Lost: Thomas Walkup (614 points; graduated), Demetrious Floyd (468 points; graduated), Clide Geffrard (451 points; graduated), Jared Johnson (204 points; graduated), Trey Pinkney (93 points; graduated)
Key Returning Players: Ty Charles (311 points), T.J. Holyfield (256 points), Dallas Cameron (118 points)
He didn't get any national attention until the NCAA tournament, but Stephen F. Austin's Thomas Walkup should have been a major player in the Wooden Award conversation.
Sports-Reference.com only started tracking win shares per 40 minutes seven years ago, but Walkup's senior-year ratio of 0.346 is the highest during that time by a mile. The only other players to hit 0.3 in a season were Kentucky's Anthony Davis (0.314 in 2011-12), Gonzaga's Kelly Olynyk (0.318 in 2012-13), Bucknell's Mike Muscala (0.309 in 2012-13), Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns (0.311 in 2014-15) and Stony Brook's Jameel Warney (0.304 in 2015-16).
In a stat category usually dominated by big men—because they generally have a higher field-goal percentage and more offensive rebounds than their backcourt counterparts—a 6'4" guard recorded the best rating ever by a "Katie Ledecky in the women's 800-meter freestyle" kind of margin.
But maybe you prefer a different stat to determine value.
How about player efficiency rating and box plus/minus? At 34.8 and 14.1, respectively, Walkup joined Davis, Olynyk, Brice Johnson and Frank Kaminsky as the only players in the past seven years to hit at least 33 and 13 in those categories. Each of those other players either won the Wooden Award (Davis and Kaminsky) or were among the final five voted upon, but Walkup somehow didn't even make it onto the final 15 last year.
If Walkup was all that Stephen F. Austin was losing, that would be enough to recover from; but the Lumberjacks also lose their second-, third-, sixth- and eighth-leading scorers and their head coach. The Southland Conference is bad enough that they might still make the NCAA tournament, but Stephen F. Austin isn't anywhere near the Cinderella candidate it has been for the past three years.
17. Texas Southern Tigers
3 of 19
Percentage of Points Lost: 67.8
Noteworthy Players Lost: Malcolm Riley (515 points; graduated), Chris Thomas (499 points; graduated); David Blanks (334 points; graduated), Jose Rodriguez (273 points; graduated)
Key Returning Players: Derrick Griffin (359 points), Orlando Coleman (211 points)
Keeping Derrick Griffin is a huge win for the Tigers. He was named the SWAC Player of the Year as a freshman for averaging 13.3 points, 11.0 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game.
But the two-sport star—Griffin made six catches for a total of 90 yards and scored a touchdown in Texas Southern's first football game of the 2016 season against the Prairie View A&M Panthers—is just about the only returning weapon for Mike Davis. Every other top-five scorer from last season graduated, leaving little more than Griffin and a wing-forward who barely shot 30 percent from three-point range (Coleman).
The Tigers even lost Tevon Saddler, who was going to be a crucial addition. Saddler averaged 13.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.5 steals per game for UNC-Greensboro in 2014-15 before transferring to Texas Southern, but he never played a game for the Tigers before transferring to Nicholls State in late July, according to CBS Sports' Jon Rothstein.
As is the case for Stephen F. Austin, Texas Southern very well may still win its otherwise uninspiring conference. (At 202 in 2015 and 173 this past season, per KenPom.com, the Tigers were the only SWAC team to rank in the top 230.)
But don't count on them shocking any of their major-conference foes this year. They upset Michigan State and Kansas State two years ago, but Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Louisville, LSU and TCU shouldn't have any difficulty with this lite version of the Tigers.
16. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
4 of 19
Percentage of Points Lost: 68.2
Noteworthy Players Lost: Aaron Cosby (465 points; graduated), Fredrick Edmond (402 points; suspended), Nigel Snipes (299 points; graduated), Chris McNeal (192 points; suspended), Chris Harrison-Docks (180 points; transferred), Marlon Hunter (136 points; suspended), Aleksej Rostov (113 points; graduated)
Key Returning Players: Justin Johnson (507 points), Ben Lawson (171 points), Anton Waters (146 points)
The Hilltoppers lose a ton this offseason, but this is one situation where a major makeover appears to be a positive change.
After Ray Harper resigned, they hired former Mississippi State head coach Rick Stansbury, who immediately got to work on both the transfer and recruiting fronts.
Washington State's Que Johnson and Providence's Junior Lomomba will join the team this year as graduate-transfers, as will Tennessee's Jabari McGhee after sitting out the first semester. They also have Phabian Glasco (Central Arkansas) and Willie Carmichael (Tennessee) available as transfers who sat out this past season.
(And the Hilltoppers are already looking like the top Cinderella candidate for the 2017-18 season with the additions of Buffalo transfer Lamonte Bearden and 5-star freshman Mitchell Robinson.)
But will all those players come together to help Western Kentucky stomach the loss of seven of its top 10 scorers? Justin Johnson was a stud as a sophomore, but neither Ben Lawson nor Anton Waters did much as juniors. Yet, those are the only returning players who scored more than four points all of last season.
The first few weeks might be an adventure as everyone settles into new roles and gets to know teammates. But if the Hilltoppers happen to win the C-USA tournament, best of luck to the No. 4 or No. 5 seed that has to deal with Q. Johnson, J. Johnson and Lomomba in their NCAA tourney opener.
15. Radford Highlanders
5 of 19
Percentage of Points Lost: 68.9
Noteworthy Players Lost: Cameron Jones (462 points; graduated), Rashun Davis (435 points; graduated), Brandon Holcomb (193 points; graduated), Ya Ya Anderson (184 points; graduated), Kion Brown (152 points; graduated), Taj Owens (120 points; graduated)
Key Returning Players: Ed Polite Jr. (270 points), Justin Cousin (163 points)
In retrospect, maybe Radford's season-opening win over Georgetown wasn't all that surprising.
The Highlanders were one of the country's most experienced teams. Six of their eight leading scorers were seniors, and five of them played together all four years at Radford. Leading scorer Cameron Jones was the only exception. He fit in beautifully after averaging better than 20 points per game at Brunswick Community College.
But the inherent problem of relying that heavily on seniors is that you still need to cobble together a roster for the following season. And to that end, Radford didn't add a single transfer this offseason or a recruit ESPN.com rated higher than 1-star shooting guard Donald Hicks.
Ed Polite Jr. should have another solid year as Radford's primary frontcourt weapon, but it's tough to see this team competing for much of anything in 2016-17. December road games against North Carolina and West Virginia could get ugly.
14. Northeastern Huskies
6 of 19
Percentage of Points Lost: 69.4
Noteworthy Players Lost: David Walker (591 points; graduated), Quincy Ford (477 points; graduated), Zach Stahl (338 points; graduated), Caleb Donnelly (148 points; graduated)
Key Returning Players: Jeremy Miller (274 points), T.J. Williams (190 points)
Right up there with Radford's win over Georgetown, Northeastern's road win over Miami (FL) was one of the most surprising upsets of the 2015-16 season. Not only were the 'Canes flying high after dominating the Puerto Rico Tip-Off, but the Huskies had lost to Miami, Ohio, just before that game.
The dynamic duo of David Walker and Quincy Ford combined for 45 points in the stunner, clipping Miami by a 78-77 margin.
But both of those minor-conference studs are out of years of eligibility, as is third-leading scorer Zach Stahl, leaving Northeastern with barely a shell of the roster that already managed to lose 10 times against Colonial Athletic Association opponents last season.
In addition to the four graduations, Northeastern also lost Brandon Kamga, Kwesi Abakah and Ty Groce as transfers. The Huskies don't have a single incoming transfer to make up for those seven departures, so they'll need to rely heavily upon unheralded freshmen and big numbers from upperclassmen Devon Begley and Jimmy Marshall.
Even if those options pan out, though, it's shaping up to be a rebuilding year for Northeastern in advance of a potential bounce-back year in 2017-18. The Huskies have already signed 3-star power forward Tomas Murphy in that class and should get just about everyone back from what will be a young roster.
13. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
7 of 19
Percentage of Points Lost: 69.5
Noteworthy Players Lost: Majok Deng (571 points; graduated), Justin Roberson (493 points; graduated), Jamaal Samuel (318 points; graduated), DeMondre Harvey (265 points; graduated)
Key Returning Players: Nick Coppola (371 points), Travis Munnings (246 points)
Lost in the Sun Belt Conference shuffle behind Arkansas-Little Rock last season and Georgia State the year before that, Louisiana-Monroe quietly had two of its best seasons in school history.
Just a few years removed from going 14-73 over the course of three seasons, the Warhawks were rated No. 121 by KenPom.com this past season. It was the first time in KenPom.com history (dating back to 2001-02) that they were rated higher than 170.
But repeating that feat will be next to impossible after losing four of their five leading scorers and virtually all of their rebounding.
Majok Deng is the biggest loss, both literally and figuratively. The 6'10" stretch 5 led the Warhawks in points, rebounds and blocks and even averaged 1.9 assists per game. Justin Roberson, Jamaal Samuel and DeMondre Harvey each ranked top five on the team in both points and rebounds, so it's much more than just Mr. Everything that this team is losing.
Nick Coppola is a quality mid-major point guard, and Travis Munnings had a strong freshman season, but head coach Keith Richard will need to find a lot of diamonds in the rough in order to win at least 20 games for a third straight year.
12. Western Carolina Catamounts
8 of 19
Percentage of Points Lost: 69.8
Noteworthy Players Lost: Mike Brown (579 points; graduated), Torrion Brummitt (484 points; graduated), Rhett Harrelson (345 points; graduated), Justin Browning (323 points; graduated)
Key Returning Players: Elijah Pughsley (239 points), Devin Peterson (171 points), Haboubacar Mutombo (128 points), Marc Gosselin (107 points)
Western Carolina has not been to the NCAA tournament since 1996 and has only won 20 games in a season once in school history. Those droughts figure to continue for at least one more year after the Catamounts lose all four of their leaders in points scored and minutes played.
But it was their contributions in two other categories that will be most dearly missed.
In his 11 seasons as the head coach of Western Carolina, Larry Hunter's teams have consistently been above average in two areas: offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers. Rhett Harrelson didn't do much of either as a three-point specialist, but Mike Brown, Torrion Brummitt and Justin Browning ranked top three in totals for both of those categories.
Much of that can be attributed to opportunity. Marc Gosselin actually led the team in offensive rebounding percentage, and Elijah Pughsley ranked second in steal percentage. But neither one did much of anything in terms of win shares per 40 minutes or box plus/minus, meaning their proficiency in those categories was outweighed by their deficiency in others.
They're still young, though. Western Carolina's top four scorers were seniors, but the next six guys were freshmen and sophomores. This coming season will be a struggle, but it may just be growing pains in advance of an atypically successful year in 2017-18.
11. Utah Utes
9 of 19
Percentage of Points Lost: 70.0
Noteworthy Players Lost: Jakob Poeltl (620 points; NBA draft), Jordan Loveridge (416 points; graduated), Brandon Taylor (349 points; graduated), Dakarai Tucker (193 points; graduated), Brekkott Chapman (158 points; transferred)
Key Returning Players: Kyle Kuzma (387 points), Lorenzo Bonam (366 points)
At long last, we're back to teams that have actually done some damage in the past decade. In fact, seven of the top 11 teams on this list were in the NCAA tournament last year—though none of them made it any further than the Sweet 16.
The Utes are one of those squads, and given how many players they lost, it's hard to believe there are 10 teams trying to recoup more than they are. In addition to the five noteworthy players listed above, Utah also lost Chris Reyes, Isaiah Wright, Austin Montgomery, Kenneth Ogbe, Brandon Miller and Makol Mawien as transfers.
In total, they're only bringing back three players who appeared in more than six games last season: Kyle Kuzma, Lorenzo Bonam and Gabe Bealer.
And yet, this is a team that could do some damage.
To make up for all the players lost on the transfer market, Larry Krystkowiak added five transfers of his own, including Utah State's David Collette and SMU's Sedrick Barefield. Redshirt freshman Jayce Johnson should also be a key contributor, likely as the starting center.
10. Gonzaga Bulldogs
10 of 19
Percentage of Points Lost: 70.0
Noteworthy Players Lost: Kyle Wiltjer (736 points; graduated), Domantas Sabonis (633 points; NBA draft), Eric McClellan (385 points; graduated), Kyle Dranginis (234 points; graduated)
Key Returning Players: Josh Perkins (365 points), Silas Melson (238 points), Przemek Karnowski (44 points)
The Zags didn't lose a ton of players, but the ones they did lose were of the high-impact variety. Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis averaged a combined 38.0 points per game, while Eric McClellan and Kyle Dranginis pitched in another 16.6.
Mark Few has been ready for this makeover, though. He had three transfers (Jeremy Jones, Nigel Williams-Goss and Johnathan Williams III) sitting out this past season and landed one of the country's better recruiting classes last November by signing four 4-star freshmen.
Perhaps the biggest move of all, though, came this summer with the acquisition of California graduate transfer Jordan Mathews.
This revamped roster is loaded with good scoring options, but lacking in proven three-point weapons. Bryan Alberts shot better than 40 percent as a freshman, but 57 attempts are not much of a sample size. And while Josh Perkins can shoot the three (37.8 percent), he'd much rather set up a teammate for one (4.1 assists per game.)
Mathews made 41.6 percent of his 214 attempts last season and should immediately fill that portion of the void left by Wiltjer's graduation. (The former Kentucky transfer made 43.7 percent of his 206 attempts.) If he continues to shoot that well, perhaps this will finally be the year Gonzaga reaches the Final Four.
9. Michigan State Spartans
11 of 19
Percentage of Points Lost: 71.0
Noteworthy Players Lost: Denzel Valentine (595 points; graduated), Bryn Forbes (505 points; graduated), Matt Costello (374 points; graduated), Deyonta Davis (261 points; NBA draft), Marvin Clark (116 points; transferred), Javon Bess (94 points; transferred)
Key Returning Players: Eron Harris (326 points), Matt McQuaid (123 points)
Tom Izzo always has a few key seniors in his back pocket. That won't be any different this year with Eron Harris, Gavin Schilling and perhaps Alvin Ellis each playing important roles in their collective final year of collegiate eligibility.
But the Spartans will need those elder statesmen in a big way after losing their top three scorers and five of the top six.
If we can temporarily state the obvious, Denzel Valentine is the most irreplaceable of the bunch. He averaged 19.2 points, 7.8 assists and 7.5 rebounds per game, becoming the first person since Jason Kidd in 1993-94 to average at least 16, 6.5 and 6.5, respectively. Valentine wasn't anywhere near the on-ball defender Kidd was, but it's going to take more than one player to replace the nightly triple-double threat.
The Spartans also lost their best three-point shooter (Bryn Forbes), their top two rebounders and shot- blockers (Matt Costello and Deyonta Davis) and a pair of critical reserves who might have been headed for starting gigs this year (Marvin Clark and Javon Bess).
Izzo signed the best recruiting class of his lifetime, but does it make up for everything lost? Even if Miles Bridges and Joshua Langford hit the ground running and play like one-and-done stars, it likely wouldn't be enough to make Michigan State the national championship threat it was this past season.
8. Duquesne Dukes
12 of 19
Percentage of Points Lost: 71.5
Noteworthy Players Lost: Derrick Colter (609 points; graduated), Micah Mason (608 points; graduated), L.G. Gill (345 points; transferred), TySean Powell (163 points; transferred), Jeremiah Jones (115 points; graduated)
Key Returning Players: Eric James (309 points), Darius Lewis (217 points)
Following three painful rebuilding years, Duquesne finally got back to within a stone's throw of being nationally relevant before losing 10 of its final 12 games to finish .500. The Dukes had Derrick Colter and Micah Mason to thank for that better-than-usual season, as the backcourt duo combined to average 36.3 points per game.
But with those guards graduating and both L.G. Gill and TySean Powell opting to transfer elsewhere, the Dukes lose each of their three leading scorers and a total of six of the top eight.
The good news is they added a pair of potentially massive graduate transfers in Drake's Kale Abrahamson and Niagara's Emile Blackman. The former averaged 11.1 PPG last season, while the latter put up 15.8.
Just as important as their point totals, that pair attempted a combined 9.8 three-pointers per game. The long ball has been a huge part of Duquesne's game plan for the past decade, so it needed to add some gunners to make up for losing so many.
The Dukes also add former Nebraska Cornhusker Tarin Smith, who should immediately become their starting point guard.
Whether that group of new perimeter players can come together to lead Duquesne to another 17-win season remains to be seen, but this team will look little like it did a season ago.
7. Kentucky Wildcats
13 of 19
Percentage of Points Lost: 75.8
Noteworthy Players Lost: Jamal Murray (720 points; NBA draft), Tyler Ulis (606 points; NBA draft), Alex Poythress (317 points; graduated), Skal Labissiere (237 points; NBA draft), Marcus Lee (229 points; transferred)
Key Returning Players: Isaiah Briscoe (326 points), Derek Willis (247 points)
Now we're getting serious. Each of the remaining teams is replacing at least three out of every four points scored last season.
Of course, Kentucky is no stranger to this list. In fact, compared to last year, the Wildcats have a high retention rate, bringing back 24.2 percent of their scoring as opposed to just 14.1 percent. And were it not for Marcus Lee and Charles Matthews transferring out of the program, they wouldn't have even cracked into the top 20 this year.
It's still a lot of attrition, though.
Jamal Murray and Tyler Ulis combined to score 46.3 percent of Kentucky's points last season, and the frontcourt trio of Alex Poythress, Skal Labissiere and Lee was responsible for another 27.4 percent. With all five of those Wildcats leaving, the list of returnees is little more than Isaiah Briscoe and Derek Willis.
Good thing John Calipari has yet another incredible recruiting class consisting of five 5-star studs. De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk will help Big Blue Nation quickly get over the loss of Murray and Ulis, and Edrice "Bam" Adebayo should be at least twice as effective as any forward who was on the roster in 2015-16.
Per usual, expectations are sky-high for what is mostly a brand-new Wildcats roster.
6. Army Black Knights
14 of 19
Percentage of Points Lost: 75.9
Noteworthy Players Lost: Tanner Plomb (555 points; graduated), Kyle Wilson (520 points; graduated), Kevin Ferguson (381 points; graduated), Dylan Cox (250 points; graduated), Larry Toomey (191 points; graduated)
Key Returning Players: Kennedy Edwards (141 points), Adam Roe (106 points), Luke Morrison (105 points), John Emezie (104 points)
Last year was supposed to be the end of Army's eternal NCAA tournament drought.
The Black Knights brought back just about everyone from a team that went .500. That might not sound like a good season for most teams, but by Army's standards, it was borderline incredible. From 1985-2012, Army had 27 consecutive sub-.500 seasons, racking up an overall record of 242-515. But after three consecutive seasons with at least 15 wins, 2015-16 should have been the one that finally ended in a tournament berth.
It was a better year than usual, but at 19-14 with a 22-point loss to Holy Cross in the Patriot League tournament, it wasn't enough to seal the deal.
Who knows if and when the Black Knights will be in that type of position again? It certainly won't be this year, though, as they lost all five of their leading scorers and their top four rebounders. Even in a conference like this one that is wide-open on an annual basis, that's just too much production to try to replace in one offseason.
5. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
15 of 19
Percentage of Points Lost: 76.2
Noteworthy Players Lost: Marcus Georges-Hunt (601 points; graduated), Adam Smith (540 points; graduated), Nick Jacobs (377 points; graduated), Charles Mitchell (364 points; graduated), James White (126 points; graduated)
Key Returning Players: Quinton Stephens (179 points), Tadric Jackson (169 points), Ben Lammers (131 points)
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets finished in a tie for 11th place in the ACC last season, but they deserved better. Of their 13 losses during the regular season, 10 came by a single-digit margin. They scored upsets over Virginia, VCU and Notre Dame, played Louisville tight twice and had good showings against Duke and North Carolina.
Led by four veterans who averaged at least 10 points per game, Georgia Tech was not a fun team for any opponent to face in 2015-16.
Unfortunately for its 2016-17 prospects, each of those veterans was a senior, leaving the current roster devoid of players who averaged better than 5.0 points per game—except for Western Michigan graduate transfer Kellen McCormick, who put up 6.0 PPG last year.
In due time, Josh Pastner should do good things with this program. Memphis fans had been calling for his head for years, but the man won 69.6 percent of his games over the past seven years. He has had trouble keeping players on his roster, but he knows how to coach.
Steering this team to more than a dozen wins, though, would necessitate Pastner's finest coaching job to date. Look for big man Ben Lammers to have a breakout year as a junior, but don't expect it to keep the Yellow Jackets from finishing anywhere other than the bottom three in the ACC.
4. Hampton Pirates
16 of 19
Percentage of Points Lost: 76.7
Noteworthy Players Lost: Reggie Johnson (578 points; graduated), Quinton Chievous (460 points; graduated), Brian Darden (416 points; graduated), Jervon Pressley (187 points; graduated), Dionte Adams (162 points; graduated)
Key Returning Players: Lawrence Cooks (241 points), Kalin Fisher (115 points)
Nonconference play was not particularly kind to Hampton in 2015-16. In four games against KenPom.com Top 100 opponents (William & Mary, SMU, Colorado and Princeton), the Pirates lost by a combined margin of 124 points. They remained true to form in the NCAA tournament with a 36-point loss to Virginia.
But in the MEAC, Hampton was the team that few could defeat. Even though the Pirates couldn't shoot to save their lives—they ranked 321st, 229th and 320th in three-point, two-point and free-throw percentages, respectively, according to KenPom.com—they won 16 of their 19 games against MEAC foes, including running away with the conference tournament.
They can thank their veteran savvy for that, as five of their six leading scorers were seniors, including former Tennessee Volunteer Quinton Chievous, who averaged 17.0 points and 10.7 rebounds in his final season.
What will they do in the frontcourt without Chievous, Pressley and Adams? Those three accounted for more than 48 percent of Hampton's rebounds last season, and neither 6'1" Lawrence Cooks or 6'2" Kalin Fisher is going to help fill that void.
Even in the MEAC, it doesn't take long to drop off a cliff. North Carolina Central went 46-2 in conference play from 2012-15 before losing a ton of seniors and plummeting to 13-19 overall with a sub-.500 conference record. Hampton could be headed for a similar fate.
3. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
17 of 19
Percentage of Points Lost: 80.6
Noteworthy Players Lost: Shaquille Harrison (483 points; graduated), James Woodard (477 points; graduated), Rashad Smith (218 points; graduated), Brandon Swannegan (212 points; graduated), Marquel Curtis (206 points; graduated), D'Andre Wright (167 points; graduated), Rashad Ray (131 points; graduated)
Key Returning Players: Pat Birt (383 points)
Though there are two teams higher on the list in terms of total percentage of points lost, they both have transfers and/or NBA draft decisions to blame for a large portion of their attrition. As far as total loss due to seniors is concerned, Tulsa takes the cake—only instead of a tasty dessert, it's a nightmare of a rebuilding situation.
According to KenPom.com, the Golden Hurricane were the country's most experienced team by a significant margin. Their average player had 2.73 years of experience, while the next-oldest teams were only at 2.44 years.
It's a good advantage to have for that season, but it's generally bad news for the following year. They became just the seventh team in the past decade with more than 2.7 average years of experience, and the first six didn't fare so well.
2010-11 North Texas and 2008-09 Houston Baptist remained roughly as competent as the previous year, but 2012-13 Valparaiso, 2010-11 Wofford, 2009-10 Troy and 2006-07 Long Beach State each dropped at least 95 spots in the KenPom.com rankings after losing much of that experience.
Expect a similar result for Tulsa, which loses seven of its eight leading scorers to graduation.
Frank Haith is doing everything in his power to prevent a precipitous drop. Among his incoming players are Rutgers transfer Junior Etou, four freshmen, three JUCO transfers and one player from Australia. But this team needs a miracle to turn that and Pat Birt into a third NCAA tournament appearance in four years.
2. Milwaukee Panthers
18 of 19
Percentage of Points Lost: 87.1
Noteworthy Players Lost: Matt Tiby (514 points; graduated), Akeem Springs (423 points; transferred), Jordan Johnson (400 points; transferred), Austin Arians (377 points; transferred), J.J. Panoske (345 points; graduated), J.R. Lyle (119 points; graduated), JayQuan McCloud (95 points; transferred)
Key Returning Players: Cody Wichmann (157 points)
We briefly chronicled the Milwaukee debacle earlier in the offseason, but here's the tl;dr version of that summary: Milwaukee's athletic director prohibited the team from going on a preseason international trip that would have been funded by boosters; refused to pursue opportunities for postseason play in the NIT, CBI or CIT; fired the head coach a few days after a successful 20-13 season; and notified the team of that decision via text message.
As far as I know, Amanda Braun didn't force the team to spend the entire season traveling in a bus that was practically being held together by duct tape, but that's one of the only differences between Milwaukee's situation and the plot of Major League.
As a result, players bolted. Akeem Springs transferred to Minnesota. Austin Arians landed at Wake Forest. Jordan Johnson went to UNLV. Justin Jordan is now at UNC-Greensboro. JayQuan McCloud is also on Jeff Goodman's list of players transferring out of the program, though his new home hasn't yet been determined.
In total, the Panthers lost 49.8 percent of last year's scoring on the transfer market by making it abundantly clear that "winning" and "player satisfaction" are at the bottom of their list of priorities. Unless scarcely used freshmen like Brock Stull and Derek Rongstad are headed for a breakout season, this could be a disastrous one for Milwaukee.
1. Hawaii Warriors
19 of 19
Percentage of Points Lost: 97.1
Noteworthy Players Lost: Stefan Jankovic (516 points; NBA draft), Roderick Bobbitt (434 points; graduated), Aaron Valdes (425 points; NBA draft), Quincy Smith (276 points; graduated), Mike Thomas (269 points; broken wrist), Isaac Fleming (219 points; transferred), Sai Tummala (214 points; graduated), Stefan Jovanovic (166 points; transferred)
Key Returning Players: None
There has been a disturbing trend in college basketball over the past few seasons of teams self-imposing postseason bans in the year that scandals break. Syracuse and Southern Miss did it two years ago, though neither was likely to make the NCAA tournament anyway. Louisville did it last year, and the Cardinals definitely would have received a berth, so it was an unfair penalty to guys like Damion Lee and Trey Lewis in their last chance to dance.
But if you want to know why they choose that route instead of postponing penalties until subsequent seasons, take a look at what happened to Hawaii.
Following a yearlong investigation into the men's basketball program, the NCAA penalized Hawaii last December. There was a litany of sanctions you can read about on the NCAA's website, but the most noteworthy for outsiders is the one-year postseason ban for this season. The Warriors likely could have self-imposed that ban for 2016, but it's a good thing they didn't, because they ended up winning their first NCAA tournament game in school history.
Now they really pay the penalty.
In addition to losing three graduates, the Warriors lost Stefan Jankovic and Aaron Valdes to the NBA draft—even though neither one had any chance of getting drafted—and lost a pair of key transfers. Of last year's primary eight players, Mike Thomas was the only one who opted to return, but it has already been confirmed that he is going to redshirt the 2016-17 season to recover from wrist surgery.
Long story short, when postseason play isn't an option, most players don't see the point in sticking around. Expect to see more teams self-imposing bans for the foreseeable future in an attempt to avoid the type of predicament Hawaii is currently facing. This team won 28 games last season, but it might be lucky to win eight in 2016-17.
Stats are courtesy of KenPom.com or Sports-Reference.com, and recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports, unless noted otherwise.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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