Predicting the 2016-17 Big East College Basketball Standings
It will never be the "Old" Big East again, but this conference will be more loaded for the 2016-17 college basketball season than it has been since dropping down to 10 teams several years ago.
Villanova repeating as national champions is a strong possibility, as is Xavier dethroning the Wildcats to grab its first conference title since leaving the A-10. Creighton and Georgetown have both been heralded as sexy sleepers, but Marquette might be the actual sleeper in a Big East that could legitimately send seven teams to the NCAA tournament.
We scoured the rosters and offseason "transactions" to make an educated guess at each team's primary eight-man rotation and where it will stack up against every other team in the Big East.
Read on to find out which ones are fighting for a No. 1 seed and which ones might be jostling for position on the bubble.
10. DePaul Blue Demons
1 of 10
2015-16 Season: 9-22 overall, 3-15 in Big East (ninth place)
Key Players Lost: Myke Henry (13.7 PPG), Tommy Hamilton IV (8.6 PPG), Aaron Simpson (6.0 PPG), Rashaun Stimage (5.7 PPG)
Key Players Added: Chris Harrison-Docks (Western Kentucky transfer), Tre'Darius McCallum (JUCO transfer), Algevon Eichelberger (3-star PF), Levi Cook (3-star C)
Projected Starters: Billy Garrett Jr., Harrison-Docks, Darrick Wood, Eli Cain, Peter Ryckbosch
Top Three Reserves: Eichelberger, McCallum, Erten Gazi
Never mind making the NCAA tournament, DePaul hasn't won more than 34 percent of its conference games since the 2006-07 season.
Without a single returning player who averaged better than 3.0 rebounds per game last season, that streak isn't going to end this year, either.
The Blue Demons have a decent backcourt that got a little better with the addition of Chris Harrison-Docks, but they simply don't have the size or strength to hang with the majority of the frontcourts in this conference. Peter Ryckbosch is the only returnee taller than 6'6" who scored more than 17 points last season, and with just 37 of his own, he wasn't exactly breaking scoring records, either.
After putting so many consecutive disappointing seasons in the books, recruiting hasn't been much of an option to solve their woes. At No. 196 nationally, Brandon Cyrus is their only top-250 recruit this year, which is one more than they had the previous year.
9. St. John's Red Storm
2 of 10
2015-16 Season: 8-24 overall, 1-17 in Big East (last place)
Key Players Lost: Durand Johnson (12.0 PPG), Ron Mvouika (8.5 PPG), Christian Jones (8.4 PPG), Felix Balamou (6.8 PPG)
Key Players Added: Marcus LoVett (redshirt freshman), Bashir Ahmed (JUCO transfer), Shamorie Ponds (4-star CG), Tariq Owens (Tennessee transfer)
Projected Starters: LoVett, Federico Mussini, Ahmed, Kassoum Yakwe, Yankuba Sima
Top Three Reserves: Ponds, Malik Ellison, Amar Alibegovic
The Johnnies should be much better than last season, but a home win over DePaul was the only thing that kept them from closing the year on a 22-game losing streak. Vast improvement is relative when starting that deep in the basement.
Adding insult to injury, St. John's lost three of last year's seven leading scorers to graduation, while fourth-leading scorer Christian Jones decided he'd be better off transferring to UNLV for his final year of eligibility.
But if the new pieces fit together as well as they could, head coach Chris Mullin's squad will pull off a couple of noteworthy upsets in what will otherwise be yet another transitional year.
Provided Darien Williams is granted an extra year of eligibility after appearing in just three games this past season, St. John's won't have a single senior on this year's roster. The Red Storm will also only have three juniors, one being incoming JUCO stud, Bashir Ahmed. He averaged 20.1 points and 8.1 rebounds per game last year in leading Hutchinson Community College to a 32-5 record.
Along with redshirt freshman point guard Marcus LoVett and standout freshman combo guard Shamorie Ponds, Ahmed will give the Johnnies a talented seven-man rotation. Once they gain a little bit of experience and jell as a unit, this could be a dangerous team in 2017-18.
8. Providence Friars
3 of 10
2015-16 Season: 24-11 overall, 10-8 in Big East (tied for fourth place)
Key Players Lost: Ben Bentil (21.1 PPG), Kris Dunn (16.4 PPG), Junior Lomomba (5.3 PPG), Quadree Smith (1.7 PPG)
Key Players Added: Alpha Diallo (4-star SF), Maliek White (4-star PG), Isaiah Jackson (George Mason transfer), Emmitt Holt (JUCO transfer)
Projected Starters: Kyron Cartwright, Jalen Lindsey, Ryan Fazekas, Diallo, Rodney Bullock
Top Three Reserves: White, Jackson, Holt
Credit to Ed Cooley for going out and collecting assets this summer. Providence began the offseason with nothing more than Maliek White and George Mason transfer Isaiah Jackson on its list of incoming players, but the Friars signed Emmitt Holt and Alpha Diallo in April before also picking up 3-star center Kalif Young in May.
But there's only so much that can be done to replace a duo like they had in Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil.
The last time a Big East team lost a twosome anywhere near that terrific was when Marquette's Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder both graduated after the 2011-12 season. The Golden Eagles were supposed to take a gigantic step backward the following year, but they managed to get breakout seasons from seemingly everyone, postponing the collapse until 2013-14.
Should guys like Jalen Lindsey and Ryan Fazekas do for Providence in 2016-17 what Vander Blue and Junior Cadougan did for Marquette in 2012-13, maybe the Friars can keep their heads above water for another year by sneaking into a fourth consecutive NCAA tournament. But too many things need to break just right in order for this group of guys to finish .500 or better in this loaded conference.
As with St. John's, there will be a big upset or two along the way, but we feel much better about Providence's prospects in 2017-18, considering there's not a noteworthy senior on this year's roster.
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7. Seton Hall Pirates
4 of 10
2015-16 Season: 25-9 overall, 12-6 in Big East (third place)
Key Players Lost: Isaiah Whitehead (18.2 PPG), Derrick Gordon (8.0 PPG)
Key Players Added: Jevon Thomas (Kansas State transfer), Myles Powell (4-star PG), Eron Gordon (3-star SG)
Projected Starters: Thomas, Khadeen Carrington, Desi Rodriguez, Ismael Sanogo, Angel Delgado
Top Three Reserves: Powell, Michael Nzei, Gordon
If Isaiah Whitehead had decided to come back for another year, Seton Hall would have been a lock for a spot in the preseason Top 25 and a legitimate challenger to Villanova for the 2017 Big East title.
Without Whitehead, though, the Pirates are teetering on the wrong side of the projected NCAA tournament bubble.
Kansas State transfer Jevon Thomas and stud freshman Myles Powell will try to fill that void, but Whitehead was on some kind of Kemba Walker level over the latter half of last season, single-handedly willing Seton Hall into the tournament. Both Thomas and Powell are more likely to make their teammates look better than they are to put their teammates on their back, so identifying and feeding a new alpha dog (or dogs) will be step one on the road to recovery.
Angel Delgado doesn't shoot much, and Ismael Sanogo makes Delgado look like a ball hog, so it will likely fall to Khadeen Carrington and Desi Rodriguez to do the bulk of the scoring for the Pirates this year—which could yield mixed results.
Carrington had a few 20-point games last year, but he wasn't particularly efficient and often struggled against Seton Hall's better opponents. Likewise, Rodriguez had some breakout performances, but following a strong November, he rarely put together two quality outings in a row.
If that duo becomes more consistent in a bigger role, Seton Hall could absolutely finish in the top half of the Big East standings once again. If either one falls flat in a lead role, though, the Pirates could unravel in a hurry.
6. Marquette Golden Eagles
5 of 10
2015-16 Season: 20-13 overall, 8-10 in Big East (sixth place)
Key Players Lost: Henry Ellenson (17.0 PPG)
Key Players Added: Katin Reinhardt (USC transfer), Andrew Rowsey (UNC-Asheville transfer), Sam Hauser (4-star SF), Brendan Bailey (4-star SF), Markus Howard (4-star PG)
Projected Starters: Traci Carter, Reinhardt, Duane Wilson, Haanif Cheatham, Luke Fischer
Top Three Reserves: Rowsey, Jajuan Johnson, Sandy Cohen III
Here's a testament to how loaded the Big East is this year: Marquette lost just one noteworthy player, has the best recruiting class in the conference, added two key transfers and is still a bit unlikely to finish in the top half.
Make no mistake about it, though: These Golden Eagles are loaded with talent and have the potential to make some big waves felt at the national level.
If they can solve their lack of frontcourt depth, that is.
Marquette has wings for days upon days. Andrew Rowsey averaged 19.7 points per game while shooting 39.3 percent from beyond the arc in his two seasons with UNC-Asheville, and he probably won't even be a starter in a four-guard lineup. The Golden Eagles have three top-100 recruits in this year's class, but it's tough to see where any of them fit into the mix, as they have four returning players who averaged at least 10 points per game.
But Luke Fischer and scarcely used Matt Heldt are the only true big men on the roster, leaving either Haanif Cheatham or Jajuan Johnson to start at the 4 as a 6'5" guard. And heaven help the Golden Eagles if Fischer rolls an ankle or gets into foul trouble. Considering he fouled out of six games last season, at least one of those things is likely to become an issue at some point.
Sam Hauser could be the missing ingredient if he bulks up enough to serve as a small power forward. Short of that, though, they're going to dearly miss Henry Ellenson's presence on the glass and in the paint.
5. Butler Bulldogs
6 of 10
2015-16 Season: 22-11 overall, 10-8 in Big East (tied for fourth place)
Key Players Lost: Kellen Dunham (16.2 PPG), Roosevelt Jones (13.8 PPG), Jordan Gathers (4.1 PPG), Austin Etherington (3.7 PPG), Jackson Davis (2.5 PPG)
Key Players Added: Kethan Savage (George Washington transfer), Avery Woodson (Memphis transfer), Joey Brunk (4-star C), Kamar Baldwin (3-star SG), Henry Baddley (3-star SF)
Projected Starters: Tyler Lewis, Savage, Kelan Martin, Andrew Chrabascz, Tyler Wideman
Top Three Reserves: Woodson, Brunk, Baldwin
Would you rather have Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones or Kethan Savage and Avery Woodson?
That's effectively the trade Butler made this offseason and the question one needs to answer in deciding whether Butler should be as good as or better than it was in 2015-16.
Savage and Woodson are indispensable additions, but we'd rather have the former duo.
Memphis failed to make the NCAA tournament in either of Woodson's two seasons, and Savage was out with a foot injury for the final two months of George Washington's only trip to the Big Dance in his three seasons there. Meanwhile, Jones and Dunham both went to three NCAA tournaments and worked together about as well as peanut butter and jelly.
The X-factor that keeps Butler securely in the picture for another tournament bid this year, though, is Tyler Lewis.
A standout point guard in the 2012 recruiting class, Lewis has not yet fully received the reins at NC State or Butler. But he has been effective and efficient in his limited minutes. Now a senior, he could provide the veteran, winning experience the Bulldogs would otherwise be lacking without Jones and Dunham. After all, even if we include his redshirt year with Butler, Lewis has never been on a roster that missed the tournament.
Joey Brunk might also swing the pendulum in favor of Butler getting stronger in 2016-17. Butler didn't score efficiently in the paint last year and didn't have much of a defensive presence—particularly in the 15 minutes per game played with Tyler Wideman on the bench. If Brunk can give the Bulldogs quality minutes as a reserve, a top-three finish in the Big East is a real possibility.
4. Georgetown Hoyas
7 of 10
2015-16 Season: 15-18 overall, 7-11 in Big East (eighth place)
Key Players Lost: D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera (16.2 PPG)
Key Players Added: Jonathan Mulmore (JUCO transfer), Rodney Pryor (Robert Morris transfer), Jagan Mosely (3-star SG), Akoy Agau (Louisville transfer)
Projected Starters: Mulmore, L.J. Peak, Isaac Copeland, Marcus Derrickson, Bradley Hayes
Top Three Reserves: Jessie Govan, Pryor, Paul White
Georgetown's inability to put it all together remains arguably the biggest head-scratcher of the 2015-16 season.
Between Bradley Hayes' entirely unforeseeable breakout year, L.J. Peak becoming a drastically more efficient shooting guard and Marcus Derrickson making more of an impact as a freshman than most expected, the Hoyas should have been one of the better teams in the country. Losing Joshua Smith, Jabril Trawick and Mikael Hopkins in the same offseason was tough, but the aforementioned developments ought to have been enough to keep this team playing at a high level.
Instead, something was lacking. They often appeared to sleepwalk through games and lacked the focus to win close games, going 5-12 in contests decided by a margin of eight points or fewer, beginning with the season-opening, double-overtime loss to Radford.
Perhaps this year Georgetown will be able to avoid the early upsets and subsequent "What's wrong with these guys?" narratives long enough to let the talent reign supreme.
They didn't add much this offseason in terms of freshmen, but the two transfers they picked up should be a lot of fun. Jonathan Mulmore averaged 26.1 points and 5.9 assists last year for Allegany Maryland, while Rodney Pryor put up 18.0 points and 8.0 rebounds per game with Robert Morris. D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera will be missed, but at least the Hoyas are in a position to replace him.
And in the frontcourt, they have the deepest stable of horses in this conference—if not the entire country. If Paul White is healthy this year and gets back to playing like he did as a freshman in 2014-15, that is one heck of a fifth-best forward/center for head coach John Thompson III to have at his disposal.
3. Creighton Bluejays
8 of 10
2015-16 Season: 20-15 overall, 9-9 in Big East (sixth place)
Key Players Lost: Geoffrey Groselle (11.2 PPG), James Milliken (9.7 PPG), Malik Albert (2.6 PPG)
Key Players Added: Marcus Foster (Kansas State transfer), Justin Patton (redshirt freshman), Davion Mintz (3-star CG), Kobe Paras (3-star PG)
Projected Starters: Mo Watson Jr., Foster, Isaiah Zierden, Cole Huff, Zach Hanson
Top Three Reserves: Patton, Khyri Thomas, Toby Hegner
Marcus Foster and Justin Patton sat and watched as the Bluejays cobbled together a 20-15 record. There were surprising wins over Xavier and Seton Hall and disheartening losses to Arizona State and Loyola-Chicago, but for the most part, they were a marginally-better-than-average team that seemed to be a secondary scorer away from making a leap.
With Foster and Patton now available to contribute, Creighton sits at or near the top of seemingly every list of potential breakout teams in 2016-17.
The hope is that Patton will work out better than Greg McDermott's last top-100 redshirt freshman, as Ronnie Harrell Jr. sat out the 2014-15 season before an entirely uninspiring debut this past year. If Patton instead lives up to his potential as a big man, the Bluejays will get along just fine without Geoffrey Groselle.
If that happens and Foster plays like he did as a freshman with Kansas State in 2013-14, look out.
In his first year with the Wildcats, Foster averaged 15.5 points per game and shot just a shade below 40 percent from three-point range. He was both a go-to scorer and a capable distributor, which would make for a dream pairing with Mo Watson Jr.—a sensational passer who is more than capable of creating his own shot when the defense doesn't respect it.
Last year, however, Watson led Creighton in field-goal attempts because Cole Huff was the only other player willing and able to create his own shot. Foster should give this team a whole new arsenal of options and the type of two-guard backcourt that is a prerequisite for becoming a legitimate contender in today's game.
2. Xavier Musketeers
9 of 10
2015-16 Season: 28-6 overall, 14-4 in Big East (second place)
Key Players Lost: James Farr (10.7 PPG), Jalen Reynolds (9.6 PPG), Remy Abell (6.4 PPG)
Key Players Added: RaShid Gaston (Norfolk State transfer), Malcolm Bernard (Florida A&M transfer), Quentin Goodin (4-star PG), Tyrique Jones (4-star PF)
Projected Starters: Edmond Sumner, Myles Davis, J.P. Macura, Trevon Bluiett, Gaston
Top Three Reserves: Bernard, Goodin, Sean O'Mara
"No one shoots like Gaston, makes those beauts like Gaston, then goes tromping around wearing boots like Gaston."
That's right. We're singing lyrics from a song in Beauty and the Beast. And if RaShid Gaston makes a big impact in his one and only season with Xavier, fans of the Musketeers will be singing his praises like a flock of LeFou impersonators, too.
At any rate, they desperately need him to be a force in the paint to make up for the loss of James Farr and Jalen Reynolds. That duo combined to average 40.2 minutes, 20.3 points and 14.3 rebounds per game while platooning as Xavier's center.
No one is expecting Gaston to put up those numbers by himself, but he needs to do enough—along with Kaiser Gates and Tyrique Jones—to keep from forcing Xavier to radically alter its game plan.
That's because this team is rock-solid from point guard through power forward, particularly with the additions of Quentin Goodin and Malcolm Bernard and the presumed improvement of Edmond Sumner in his second season.
Trevon Bluiett sputtered to the finish line last season, but Xavier was almost unbeatable when he was playing well. His decision to stay for another year cemented the Musketeers as a Top 25 team and a fringe national championship contender.
1. Villanova Wildcats
10 of 10
2015-16 Season: 35-5 overall, 16-2 in Big East (first place)
Key Players Lost: Ryan Arcidiacono (12.5 PPG), Daniel Ochefu (10.0 PPG)
Key Players Added: Omari Spellman (5-star C), Eric Paschall (Fordham transfer), Tim Delaney (redshirt freshman), Dylan Painter (3-star PF)
Projected Starters: Jalen Brunson, Phil Booth, Kris Jenkins, Josh Hart, Spellman
Top Three Reserves: Mikal Bridges, Darryl Reynolds, Paschall
The first wrench was thrown into Villanova's quest for back-to-back national championships last week when Mike Kern of Philly.com reported that 5-star big man Omari Spellman still has not been cleared to play by the NCAA.
"It's a chronological issue," head coach Jay Wright said. "We gave them all the information, and they're looking into it. It's (about) when his ninth-grade year started. That's all I can say right now. Everything academically is good."
Spellman is a projected starter and is supposed to be a huge piece of the puzzle after Daniel Ochefu's departure.
But, let's be honest: Even if Spellman is ruled ineligible for the entire season, the Wildcats are still the clear favorites to win the Big East. A center by committee consisting of Darryl Reynolds, Tim Delaney and Dylan Painter would hardly be the end of the world. They would still have Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and a bench consisting of versatile studs like Mikal Bridges and Eric Paschall.
With the possible exception of Duke, no team in the country is more prepared to deal with any injury or eligibility issue than Villanova. The combination of the talent and flexibility on this roster will make the Wildcats fun to watch and a nightmare to face. They may fall short of a second straight national championship, but a fourth consecutive Big East title should be a safe bet.
Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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