Everything You Need to Know About the 2016 NCAA Basketball Championship Game
Despite all of the drama and carnage of the past four-plus months, North Carolina vs. Villanova is just about the best pairing we could have asked for in college basketball's 2016 national championship game.
It's the age-old battle between the unstoppable force and the immovable object. North Carolina is averaging 88 points per tournament game, while Villanova has limited its opponents to 60.6.
Something has to give, but at least one family is winning no matter what.
After beating Kansas last weekend, Villanova's Kris Jenkins rushed home to Philadelphia to cheer on his brother, Nate Britt, as North Carolina battled Notre Dame in the Elite Eight.
For 40 minutes Monday night, though, they will be bitter rivals in search of a national championship.
We have a full breakdown of everything you need to know about the 2016 title game: how the two teams got here, the biggest storylines to watch, who their stars and underrated players are and each team's blueprint to victory.
Villanova Wildcats
1 of 7
Record: 34-5, No. 2 seed in South Region
Path to Houston: 86-56 over No. 15 UNC-Asheville, 87-68 over No. 7 Iowa, 92-69 over No. 3 Miami, 64-59 over No. 1 Kansas, 95-51 over No. 2 Oklahoma
Biggest strength: Ranked No. 2 in the country in two-point percentage at 57.3 percent
Achilles' heel: Ranked No. 209 in offensive rebound percentage at 28.6 percent
Villanova is on the verge of the most dominant NCAA tournament run ever.
Since the field expanded to 64 teams, only two teams have won it all with an average margin of victory of at least 20 points per game: North Carolina outscored its opponents by 121 points (20.2 PPG) in 2009, and Kentucky did so by 129 points (21.5 PPG) in 1996.
Well, thanks to Saturday night's evisceration of Oklahoma, Villanova has tallied 121 more points than its opponents through five games. Save for shooting 22.2 percent from three-point range in a five-point win over the pre-tournament favorite to win the title (Kansas), the Wildcats have beaten each of their opponents by a margin of at least 19 points. What they did to Iowa, Miami and Oklahoma was just ridiculous.
Even with the aforementioned dud against Kansas, Villanova is shooting 49 percent from beyond the arc in the tournament. The Wildcats shot better than 52 percent from deep just six times this season, but four of those games have come in the past four weeks. There's peaking at the right time, and then there's the offensive hot streak that they're on.
And yet, defense has been their calling card in the tournament, holding their five opponents to just 60.6 points while averaging 9.6 steals per game. Buddy Hield scored just nine points against Villanova. Perry Ellis had just four. The starting centers for Iowa and Miami (Adam Woodbury and Tonye Jekiri, respectively) combined for three points in 50 minutes.
It has been a long time since any team figured out how to slow down North Carolina's offense, but it has also been nearly a month since an opponent scored 70 against Villanova.
North Carolina Tar Heels
2 of 7
Record: 33-6, No. 1 seed in East Region
Path to Houston: 83-67 over No. 16 Florida Gulf Coast, 85-66 over No. 9 Providence, 101-86 over No. 5 Indiana, 88-74 over No. 6 Notre Dame, 83-66 over No. 10 Syracuse
Biggest strength: Ranked No. 3 in the country in offensive rebound percentage at 40.6 percent
Achilles' heel: Ranked No. 247 in three-point defense at 35.9 percent
North Carolina hasn't dominated opponents quite like Villanova has, but the Tar Heels haven't exactly been tiptoeing through the field, either. Though they have yet to face a team seeded higher than No. 5, they have beaten each of their five opponents by a margin of at least 14 points. Most of those games were close midway through the second half, but North Carolina was simply too strong for the opposition to compete with for 40 minutes.
Even more impressive than the scoring margin is the consistently elite offense.
Despite shooting a combined 35.3 percent from three-point range, the Tar Heels have scored at least 83 points in each tournament game. Brice Johnson, Marcus Paige and Justin Jackson have scored in double figures in all five games, and Joel Berry was also in that club until putting up just eight points (with 10 assists and seven rebounds) against Syracuse.
According to KenPom.com, UNC has scored 440 points on 334 possessions for a ludicrous offensive efficiency of 131.7 points per 100 possessions. To put that dominance in proper perspective, the Golden State Warriors are averaging 112.4 points per 100 possessions this season, per ESPN.com. The highest single-season ratio in college basketball in the past 15 years was Wisconsin in 2014-15 at 121.1.
In short, North Carolina's offense is a runaway freight train.
Biggest Storylines
3 of 7
You again?
Including the title that one will win Monday night, North Carolina and Villanova have combined for six national championships in the past 35 years. Oddly enough, they played each other in five of those six tournaments.
North Carolina beat Villanova 70-60 in the 1982 Elite Eight, 67-66 in the 2005 Sweet 16 and 83-69 in the 2009 Final Four. And during the only national championship run in Villanova history, the Wildcats beat the Tar Heels 56-44 in the 1985 Elite Eight. They also met in the second round in 1991 and in a No. 8 vs. No. 9 game in 2013; UNC won both of those games.
Does any of that impact what happens in Houston in 2016? Nope. Not one bit. At any rate, it doesn't mean any more than Oklahoma's 23-point win over Villanova earlier this season, and the Wildcats paid back the Sooners in spades for that. But relevance to the current season hasn't ever stopped us from dragging up ancient history in the Final Four.
NRG Stadium effect
Speaking of dragging up data, you didn't really think we'd stop mentioning the venue after two-thirds of this year's final three games were played, did you?
On the one hand, Villanova shot the lights out Saturday, making 71.4 percent of its field-goal attempts and 61.1 percent of its 18 three-point attempts. But that simply makes the Wildcats a statistical outlier. The other three teams shot a combined 26.1 percent from three-point range and 57.1 percent from the free-throw line Saturday night.
If we remove Villanova from the equation, the teams involved in the last eight NCAA tournament games at NRG Stadium combined to shoot 38.2 percent from the field and 27.2 percent from beyond the arc. If you honestly believe the Wildcats broke the curse, you're probably also the type to think that your luck is turning when your number finally hits on the roulette table.
From doormat to dynasty?
Do you know which team has the most wins in the past three seasons? I'll give you a hint: This team is playing Monday night, and it's not North Carolina.
Jay Wright has led Villanova to a 96-13 record since the beginning of 2013-14, despite failing to reach the Sweet 16 in either of the past two years. In the span of three weeks, the Wildcats went from a team that can't win when it matters to a team that is emerging as a legitimate dynasty.
Win or lose Monday, Villanova should be a top-10 candidate to win it all in 2017 as well. The Wildcats are losing Daniel Ochefu and Ryan Arcidiacono, but assuming Josh Hart comes back for his senior year, he's a surefire preseason All-American. Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson are destined for great sophomore seasons, and 5-star center Omari Spellman, per 247Sports, will be a big help to Darryl Reynolds in the frontcourt.
Gunnin' for a third dadgum title
While Wright hopes to give his coaching legacy a jolt with his first career national championship, Roy Williams is looking to join some elite company with his third title.
Only five coaches in college basketball history have won three or more titles. John Wooden had 10 with UCLA, Duke's Mike Krzyzewski has five, Kentucky's Adolph Rupp won four championships in the span of 11 years before most of us were born, and Bob Knight (Indiana) and Jim Calhoun (Connecticut) have three apiece.
That's the full list. At least for a few more hours. And with a career winning percentage of .790, Williams is already in the top 10 all-time on that list. A third title would make him a lock for college basketball's coaching Mount Rushmore, right?
Stars to Watch
4 of 7
Brice Johnson, North Carolina
Tournament stats: 20.0 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 3.0 BPG
We always expected big things from Johnson, but his evolution into the most unstoppable power forward in the country has been something to watch. He has recorded at least 12 points and seven rebounds in 15 consecutive games. He hit those marks a total of 10 times in his first two seasons and likely would have been praised as the best four-year development story in the country if not for some guy named Buddy Hield.
Josh Hart, Villanova
Tournament stats: 15.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.6 SPG
One of the better defenders in the country, Hart doesn't need to score in bunches to make an impact. But he can and usually does. Over his last 13 games, Hart has averaged 17.1 points, including Saturday night's 23 points, eight rebounds, four assists and two steals against Oklahoma. Monday should be a fun battle between the two of the three least discussed members of the KenPom Player of the Year Top 10.
Marcus Paige, North Carolina
Tournament stats: 13.8 PPG, 3.6 APG, 47.1 3P%
After shooting 37-of-130 (28.5 percent) from three-point range in 21 regular-season and conference-tournament games against the ACC, Paige has suddenly resurfaced as one of the most lethal bombers in the country. He averaged 15.8 points and five assists and shot 50 percent from three-point range in his first five games of the season before basically going into hibernation for three months, but North Carolina fans are thrilled that he's looking like his old self again.
Kris Jenkins, Villanova
Tournament stats: 15.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.4 SPG
Ryan Arcidiacono (14-of-23) has been on fire from three-point range, but Jenkins (15-of-31) is the one most likely to capitalize on North Carolina's poor three-point defense. He has also improved his all-around game since the beginning of the season. Through his first 12 games, Jenkins was little more than a three-point specialist, averaging just 3.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 0.8 steals per game. Now, he's like a second Hart for the Wildcats, doing a little bit of everything on both ends of the court.
Underrated Players to Watch
5 of 7
Mikal Bridges, Villanova
Tournament stats: 7.8 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 1.6 SPG
As was the case with Josh Hart during his first two seasons at Villanova, it's easy to see that Bridges is going to be the star of this show in the near future. The 6'7" freshman is an excellent defender and an efficient scorer who rarely commits turnovers. Once his three-point stroke comes around (just 29.9 percent this season), he's going to be one of the best two-way players in the country.
Theo Pinson, North Carolina
Tournament stats: 4.4 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.0 SPG
Role player extraordinaire, Pinson isn't likely to have the type of breakout performance in the title game that Duke's Grayson Allen had a season ago, but he's all but guaranteed to give the Tar Heels 15-20 minutes of solid defense and smart offense. He's almost the perfect foil to Bridges, with the biggest difference being that Pinson is a better passer and Bridges makes more of an impact on defense.
Darryl Reynolds, Villanova
Tournament stats: 3.4 PPG, 3.6 RPG
For Villanova to slow down North Carolina's interior assault, Reynolds will need to be a huge factor. He rarely looks to score, averaging 9.1 minutes per field-goal attempt, but he is a solid rebounder and shot-blocker who should play at least 15 minutes in this game.
Isaiah Hicks, North Carolina
Tournament stats: 8.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG
Hicks has had a lot of trouble staying on the court recently, committing a total of 24 fouls in his last six games despite averaging just 16.5 minutes in those contests. Villanova is not renowned for its ability to draw fouls, though, and Hicks has been a valuable asset this season when he's played without fear of the next whistle.
North Carolina's Blueprint to Beating Villanova
6 of 7
It won't be easy, but if North Carolina can do these four things, the Tar Heels will be the 2016 national champions.
1. Speed up Villanova
North Carolina loves to run. The Tar Heels have played 21 games this season with at least 70 possessions and went 20-1. They don't push the pace quite as much as they used to—the Heels haven't played a game with more than 72 possessions since January—but transition offense and scoring on short possessions are still among their strong suits.
Meanwhile, Villanova prefers a game with a possession count in the mid-to-high 60s. Even with all the turnovers the Wildcats have been forcing lately, they haven't played a game with 70 or more possessions since before the Big East tournament began.
Like North Carolina, Kansas and Oklahoma were uptempo teams that like to run on offense and tend to face longer possessions on defense. Villanova had little trouble slowing those teams down, so avoiding that same pace could be key for the Tar Heels.
2. Relentlessly pound the paint
In four of the five rounds, North Carolina's three-point attack has been less than mediocre, while Villanova's three-point defense has been incredible. If we take out what happened in the Sweet 16—UNC shot 11-of-20 against Indiana, while Villanova allowed Miami to shoot 10-of-17—the Tar Heels are shooting 29.2 percent from downtown, while the Wildcats are holding their opponents to 26.7 percent.
Toss in the impact of NRG Stadium on shooters and the fact that the interior game has been Carolina's strength all season long and there's no reason the Tar Heels should attempt more than 10 three-pointers in this game. And Marcus Paige should take the vast majority of them, since he's shooting 47.1 percent. The rest of the roster is shooting 27.5 percent.
3. Get a hand in Ryan Arcidiacono's face
Arcidiacono has always been a shooter, attempting at least one three-pointer in each of his 143 career games and attempting at least four of them on 107 occasions. But he was never much of an assassin, entering this year's Big East tournament with a career three-point percentage of just 34.5.
Something finally snapped, though, and he is 22-of-39 (56.4 percent) over his last eight games. As a result, Villanova's senior (and emotional) leader is oozing confidence on both ends of the floor. Making sure he doesn't get any open looks at a three-pointer in the first 12 minutes should be North Carolina's primary concern.
4. Keep crashing the offensive glass
In their last four games, the Tar Heels have recorded 57 offensive rebounds.
In their last four games, the Tar Heels have given up 57 defensive rebounds.
Even the mathematically challenged can probably figure out that means North Carolina is grabbing 50 percent of its own misses. No wonder this team is averaging 88 points per game. It's practically impossible to end a defensive possession against UNC.
Villanova's Blueprint to Beating North Carolina
7 of 7
It won't be easy, but if Villanova can do these four things, the Wildcats will be the 2016 national champions.
1. Disrupt North Carolina's flow with perimeter defense
In addition to outstanding offensive rebounding, one of the biggest reasons North Carolina has been so efficient on offense is a lack of turnovers. The Tar Heels are coughing the ball up just once every 6.8 possessions in the tournament, and a lot of those turnovers have come from the frontcourt on offensive fouls or careless decisions after corralling an offensive rebound.
The starting backcourt—Joel Berry, Marcus Paige and Justin Jackson—has combined to commit just 16 turnovers in the entire tournament. But Villanova has been driving opposing backcourts nuts lately. The three-man backcourts of Kansas and Oklahoma each committed 10 turnovers against the Wildcats' pressure. And the most effective way to beat a dominant frontcourt is to stop it from ever getting the ball in the first place.
2. Find a way to get Brice Johnson in foul trouble
Just about the only thing that has slowed down Johnson this season is the referee's whistle. When he plays at least 28 minutes (23 games), he is averaging 19 points and 11.5 rebounds per game—compared to a slightly more manageable 14.2 points and 8.9 rebounds in his other 16 games.
Villanova did foul out Miami's starting frontcourt and was able to DQ Khadeem Lattin Saturday night in just 19 minutes of action. If the Wildcats aggressively drive to contact against Johnson, it's almost like a two-for-one special because it also gets them closer to the bonus. Villanova is shooting 85.1 percent (63-of-74) from the free-throw line over its last four games.
3. Get Kris Jenkins going as soon as possible
North Carolina has struggled with stretch 4s in the tournament. Indiana's Troy Williams and Max Bielfeldt combined for 36 points and eight made triples. Providence's Ben Bentil had 21 points before fouling out. Notre Dame's V.J. Beachem scored 18. Syracuse's Tyler Lydon was also a matchup problem in the Final Four, though he scored just eight points while missing a handful of open looks.
If Villanova is unable to take Johnson out of the game with foul trouble, its next-best option is to have its power forward trade threes for Johnson twos. If Jenkins can score at least 18 points while occasionally drawing Johnson away from the defensive paint, that's a significant advantage for the Wildcats.
4. Protect the defensive glass
This should be priority No. 1 for Villanova, but it may be too much to ask. Oklahoma had 19 offensive rebounds against Villanova Saturday night, amounting to an offensive rebounding percentage of 43.2. And that wasn't even one of Oklahoma's strengths this season, so North Carolina could have a field day on the offensive glass.
The Wildcats aren't going to completely keep the Tar Heels off the boards, but holding them to 35 percent or less would be huge.
Advanced statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com and KenPom.com.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
.png?w=600 "Who Will Panthers Take at No. 9 ? 🤔")