Who Has the POY Edge as Favorites Buddy Hield, Ben Simmons Square off Saturday?

The wacky midseason SEC/Big 12 challenge is giving college basketball a treat Saturday when No. 1 Oklahoma travels to LSU, and we get to see Buddy Hield go up against Ben Simmons.

Hield has to be a heavy favorite to win the Naismith Award at this point, but Simmons is putting up ridiculous enough numbers that if the Tigers somehow knock off the Sooners and Simmons is brilliant in the process, we could have an actual race for National Player of the Year.

Simmons is a bad matchup for the Sooners (I'll touch on that later), so as preposterous as it sounds to even fathom someone other than Hield winning right now, the debate will likely begin if LSU wins and Simmons outshines Hield.

But first, a history lesson...

Anonymous/Associated Press/Associated Press/Associated Press

What's working against Simmons is the fact that the Tigers are living on the bubble. Since the NCAA tournament field expanded to 64 in 1985, every winner has played on an NCAA tournament team, and Navy's David Robinson (1987) is the only player to win it on a team seeded lower than sixth. The Midshipmen were a No. 8 seed. KU's Danny Manning (1988) and Utah's Andrew Bogut (2005) are next in line, both playing for No. 6 seeds.

If the tournament started this week, our resident bracketologist and CBSSports.com both have the Tigers out, while ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi has the Tigers as one of the last four in as a No. 11 seed.

For a good example of what a freshman with awesome numbers on a mediocre team is up against, go back to Michael Beasley's bid in 2008. Beasley's numbers compared favorably to North Carolina's Tyler Hansbrough (see below), but Hansbrough played for a No. 1 seed and Beasley's Wildcats were a No. 11 seed.

	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	SPG
Michael Beasley	26.2	12.4	1.2	1.6	1.3
Tyler Hansbrough	22.6	10.2	0.9	0.4	1.5

Beasley was a double-double machine, but Simmons is filling up the stat sheet in multiple categories to the level only a few winners have ever approached.

Here are the POYs with the most similar seasons to the big Aussie's freshman year so far: 

	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	SPG
Ben Simmons, LSU	19.8	12.7	4.9	1.0	1.8
Evan Turner, Ohio St. (2009-10)	20.4	9.2	6.0	0.9	1.7
Larry Bird, Indiana St. (1978-79)	28.6	14.9	5.5	n/a*	n/a*
Danny Ferry, Duke (1988-89)	22.6	7.4	4.7	0.6	1.6

*The NCAA did not keep track of blocked shots or steals in 1978-79. 

Here is how Simmons compares to the winners on the lowest seeds:

	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	SPG
Ben Simmons, LSU	19.8	12.7	4.9	1.0	1.8
Andrew Bogut, Utah	20.4	12.2	2.3	1.9	1.0
Danny Manning, KU	24.8	9.0	2.0	1.9	1.8
David Robinson, Navy	28.2	11.8	1.0	4.5	2.1

With the number of assists and rebounds Simmons is putting up, his season is a historic anomaly. Only issue is, so is Hield's. 

The Case for Buddy

Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Yes, Hield is doing his own historic thing. 

Know how it's a huge deal to put up a shooting line of 50-40-90? (That's over 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from three-point range and 90 percent at the line.) 

Hield is rocking the 50-50-90. He would be only the fourth player since 2000 to pull off such a feat. What Hield is doing is even more impressive when you consider his usage compared to the other players who are part of the exclusive club. 

	FG%	3P%	FT%	PPG	FGA/G
Buddy Hield, OU	53.0	52.3	90.3	25.9	15.9
Brian Conklin, Nebraska (2003-04)	53.3	55.9	90.9	8.0	4.9
Salim Stoudamire, Arizona (2004-05)	50.4	50.4	91.0	18.4	11.6
Matt Kennedy, Charleston So. (2013-14)	51.1	50.0	90.8	12.5	8.5

But 50-50-90 is an impossible pace to keep for someone who takes so many shots, right? Like his numbers obviously must be inflated by some weak nonconference opponents. 

Eh, not so much. Hield has kept pace in the Big 12, which is the best conference in the country, according to both the RPI and KenPom.com's numbers. 

	FG%	3P%	FT%	PPG	FGA/G
Non-conference	53.0	53.8	89.7	25.3	15.1
Big 12 games	52.9	50.7	92.0	26.9	17.3

Hield not only has historical numbers of his own, but he also plays on the No. 1-ranked team that should end up one of the top seeds come Selection Sunday.

So, um, how again does Simmons have a chance of making this a race?

Mr. Mismatch

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

The Sooners cannot love that they drew LSU and Simmons in the Big 12/SEC Challenge because the player they've struggled to guard more than any other this year, Iowa State's Georges Niang, is probably the closest comp to Simmons in the Big 12. 

Niang had impressive lines in both games against Oklahoma this season, and Iowa State was close to sweeping the series. 

	Pts.	FG-FGA	Ast.	Reb.	Result
at OU	29	13-18	1	8	87-83 L
at Iowa St.	22	9-19	2	3	82-77 W

Like Simmons, Niang could be labeled a point forward. Both players periodically initiate the offense, especially when they grab a defensive rebound. The difference between the two is Niang can shoot the three and Simmons is quicker and bigger. 

Simmons has had the most success this season when he operates in space, and LSU would be smart to study how ISU used Niang against the Sooners and how they guarded him. 

The Cyclones move Niang all over the floor, and the Sooners kept a lot of eyes on him whenever he touched the ball. 

When he got it in the post or the mid-post in the first meeting, OU came hard with a double-team. 

ESPN screenshot

This is a dangerous approach against Niang and Simmons because of their passing ability. Simmons loves to throw skip passes, and notice how OU's Jordan Woodard (circled) has to leave his man to cover for Khadeem Lattin, who is double-teaming Niang. Niang was wise to the double-team coming his way throughout that game, and he made quick moves that made the double-team ineffective. 

The Sooners changed up the look on post-ups in the second game and simply shadowed Niang when he touched the ball in the post instead of coming with the hard double. 

ESPN screenshot

One reason the Sooners might choose to go the double-team route is the Tigers are not as dangerous from behind the three-point line—they shoot 32.5 percent—and they'd likely invite Simmons to pass the ball based off how much success Niang had scoring. 

Simmons could also end up operating against both OU power forward Ryan Spangler and some of OU's shorter guards. The Sooners switch ball screens and hand-offs, which often left a guard defending Niang. 

Using a guard or wing to defend Simmons is a tactic some of LSU's opponents have used as well. Hield not only switched on Niang on several occasions, but he also spent portions of both games with the Niang assignment. The fact that we could see Hield actually match up against Simmons only adds to the sweetness of these two players being on the same floor in late January. 

The Tigers are going to have their own dilemmas on how to guard Hield, and nothing has really worked thus far this season. He has scored at least 30 points seven times, and he's scored fewer than 17 points only once this year—he had 12 points in a blowout win at Wisconsin. 

LSU, statistically, would be the worst defensive team in the Big 12, according to KenPom.com's efficiency numbers.

For the Tigers to win, Simmons is probably going to need an insane performance. And the same could said for his POY chances; it's going to take something miraculous from Simmons and the Tigers over the final two months of the season to knock Hield out of the top spot. The campaign could start with a win on Saturday in Baton Rouge. 

C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.