Which Contender Is Best Suited to Win the Big 12?

Oklahoma Sooners head coach Lon Kruger has never really been about league championships, despite a boatload of wide-ranging postseason success. He's taken Kansas State to an Elite Eight, Florida to a Final Four and UNLV to a Sweet 16.

Yet since taking over K-State in 1986, he can only claim two regular-season conference titles (both shared): Florida when it went to the Final Four (1994) and Illinois four years later.

This year's Sooners, however, are way beyond NCAA tournament-bound and conference-respectable in this year's Big 12. The nation's current No. 1-ranked team is at the top of the mountain in one of the toughest races ever formed.

Can the Sooners hold on? It won't be easy.

Utah-based guru Ken Pomeroy noted to Bleacher Report during a phone call Saturday that this year's Big 12 has the highest overall rating of any conference (by his measure) since the 2004 ACC, which was then a nine-team dynamo that sent six teams to the NCAA tournament. (Duke and Georgia Tech went to the Final Four.)

It has been built on experience, with seniors running the shows of the top teams ("mid-majors on steroids," as ESPN's Fran Fraschilla regularly calls the veteran-laden top tier). So you'd think there would be a higher-than-usual level of predictability and consistency.

The results have shown anything is possible as conference play reaches the halfway point.

• Baylor: Won at Iowa State (a standings-changer, for sure) but was blown out at Kansas and against Oklahoma.
• Iowa State: Beat Oklahoma and Kansas at home after the loss to Baylor but dropped a road tilt against Texas.
• Kansas: Beat Oklahoma in the triple-overtime classic, but for the second year in a row, the Jayhawks have lost three straight league road games (the 19-point loss at Oklahoma State could come back to haunt them).
• Oklahoma: Beat Iowa State, Baylor and West Virginia but lost to Kansas and Iowa State.
• Texas: Most topsy-turvy team, having beat Iowa State and West Virginia and lost to Kansas, Texas Tech and TCU (yikes).
• West Virginia: Beat Kansas but lost to Texas and Oklahoma.

Six teams all seem to have a legitimate shot of emerging as the Big 12's regular-season champion, but Kansas now has to drop a rung after Monday night's second-half meltdown at Iowa State.

Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

Are the Jayhawks totally out of the running? It's too early to go quite that far. Oklahoma stands the best chance of ending Kansas' 11-year reign as the regular-season conference champion, though.

The cast of distinct characters has created mayhem. Four teams were 5-2 in league play heading into Monday night. Now, it's OU, West Virginia and Baylor up top with Iowa State and Kansas (both 5-3) plus Texas (4-3) hoping to be hawks, scooping up any carcasses.

Even now, though, it's hard to know who's alive and who's closer to dead. Based on certain statistics, rankings and other factors, let's sort out who has the best shot at winning the conference's crown.

So, We're Sayin' There's an (Outside) Chance

Texas brings a first-year coach (so there's not much familiarity for opponents) and a unique defensive-minded success that threatens to eclipse the statistical offensive precedents the Jayhawks set over the last decade-plus.

Orlin Wagner/Associated Press

The defense is getting there under havoc-wreaking Shaka Smart. But the Longhorns' lack of depth and rebounding prowess are big concerns. At some point, this team could very well hit the energy skids under its new defensive system. Cameron Ridley's inside presence is sorely missed since his foot injury. Prince Ibeh was tenacious at keeping Kansas away from the rim Saturday before the team's foul trouble and fatigue caught up.

Those holes will continue to cause consistency issues. Consider the Longhorns—who've defeated highly ranked Iowa State and North Carolina at home—have also lost in Big 12 play to bottom-feeders Texas Tech and TCU.

Texas is great at forcing turnovers (first in the Big 12) but scary with offensive efficiency (ninth). It's not a threat from the three-point and foul lines—ranking a ghastly second-to-last in both.

Then there's Baylor, which KenPom tends to like across the board (in conference play statistics). But it's hard to be convinced, even after winning at Iowa State, as Baylor has done most of its heavy lifting against the league's lightweights.

Rod Aydelotte/Associated Press

The Bears score the ball well but too often lose possessions to turnovers. This team's rebounding prowess will come more in handy during tournament time than the consistency-requiring grind of the 18-game conference slate.

Baylor went into Saturday's home game against Oklahoma leading the country in assists per game and going 14-0 when it produced at least 16. It had 18. It was 15-0 when shooting at least 40 percent from the field but found its first defeat there, too, despite shooting 45.8 percent. Not even out-rebounding the Sooners (12-0 this year when winning that category) helped.

Those virtues, and that solid zone defense, were not factors against the Sooners. Head coach Scott Drew had no answers (to which critics will snark that he never has any answers).


Don't Count Them Out Quite Yet

West Virginia plays the best defense in the league, hands down. It's third in the nation in efficiency and first in steals. It swarmed then-No. 1 Kansas in Morgantown on Jan. 12.

Its free-throw issues in conference play (64.4 percent, last in the league) aren't a total dream-killer. Note that Kansas has traditionally been a not-so-good foul-shooting team during its conference reign. In fact, over the last 11 title runs, it finished fifth or worse in the conference rankings eight times.

Ray Thompson/Associated Press

But the Mountaineers seem to leave too much on the table compared to any of those KU teams, considering their offensive fragility: No. 8 (of 10) in offensive efficiency and effective field-goal percentage, ninth in three-point accuracy. That's what keeps them down one tier.

Defense can only take a team so far.

In back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and the Longhorns, Bob Huggins' team made just 21 of 45 free-throw attempts. That lack of focus, as Huggins called it after the Texas loss, won't get it done in the big picture.

By the way, the Mountaineers still have to go to Iowa State, Kansas and Baylor.

Speaking of Iowa State, it was left for dead after starting 1-3 in league play. But then came this recent run, when it became the first Big 12 team to ever beat a Bill Self-coached Kansas team four times in five meetings.

Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

The Cyclones have the league's second-highest-rated KenPom Player of the Year (Georges Niang comes in at No. 5 nationally, behind Oklahoma star and KPOY leader, Buddy Hield).

The question is whether it can keep up while still having to play at West Virginia, Baylor and Kansas, especially given head coach Steve Prohm's tendency to play a small number of players the most minutes in the league. The home loss to Baylor on Jan. 9 still ultimately knocks this team down one rung in our standings.


The Contender (Believe It or Not)

Kansas has lost three straight conference road games. It almost seems crazy to have KU this high, considering Monday night's second-half meltdown at Iowa State.

The reason Kansas still gets the benefit of the doubt? The schedule sets up somewhat favorably, with a span of reasonable road games...if this team can actually figure out road games. The Jayhawks tend to play well at Baylor (Feb. 23), although the big question is whether they can rally the troops for the rematch at Oklahoma on Feb. 13.

Remember, KU lost three in a row on the road during league play last year.

You probably wouldn't be surprised to hear that the Jayhawks are considerably below their ranking average during this league-title run in six key KenPom categories: three on offense (offensive efficiency, effective field-goal percentage, two-point percentage) and three on defense (defensive efficiency, defensive effective field-goal percentage and three-point defense).

Two-point offense (eighth in the Big 12 right now, compared to an average of second over the past 11 years) and offensive efficiency (fourth now—and it's only been that low once during the title streak) are particular concerns along with three-point defense (ninth, when it's averaged about fourth).

The Jayhawks are still in a maddening flux with their post play. This isn't the World University Games anymore. Landen Lucas and Hunter Mickelson have been like a couple of average quarterbacks mired in a summer-camp battle. The long lineage of capable scoring big men under Self (Thomas Robinson, the Morris twins, etc.) has taken a break. Highly anticipated Cheick Diallo can't quite be trusted, and these days, his lack of awareness and experience is costly.

At least the Jayhawks are still hanging their hats on two-point percentage defense (still first in the league after the Iowa State game Monday).

Orlin Wagner/Associated Press

Self is the ultimate wild card, and the Jayhawks are virtually impossible to defeat in Lawrence. That puts pressure on the rest of the league, which isn't quite so invincible at home historically.

Also hard to calculate: This is arguably Self's most introverted team, with Perry Ellis and Mason III as talented but sometimes too-quiet players.

All we know is that these aren't the Jayhawks of the last decade. The question remains if they're anywhere near enough, but for now, they find themselves in the conference's second tier. That may be crazy, but we've seen a bizarre number of twists and turns to this point.

Remember, Kansas lost at Iowa State—but so did Oklahoma.

And we aren't exactly counting out the Sooners...


The Favorite (Well, Duh)

Oklahoma's stunning three-point accuracy makes up seemingly for all of its foibles.

The issues with turnovers could bite OU. Yet the only game KenPom has it pegged to lose among the final 12 is a Feb. 20 road tilt against West Virginia.

Oklahoma went to Baylor last Saturday afternoon with a No. 1 national ranking in three-point field-goal percentage at 45.7 percent. That just couldn't keep up, right?

Then all it did was shoot 62 percent overall (31-of-50), including 57 percent (16-of-28) from long range. Only two baskets were unassisted.

"That's a big-time number. Any time you can do that it means you're moving the ball well and also making shots," Kruger told reporters after the Baylor game. "Guys spend a lot of time shooting and like passing it to each other. That's a good combination."

Only Oklahoma's three-point line performance in the Jan. 16 win over West Virginia was a shocker: missing 17 of its 24 attempts. Otherwise, sharing (the ball) has been caring—and thriving.

Rod Aydelotte/Associated Press

Against Baylor, Oklahoma went from trailing by six points to leading by 10…with Hield on the bench because of early foul trouble.

Bigger than numbers, Oklahoma unarguably has the Big 12's greatest blend of star power, coaching acumen and experience.

OU's quartet of Isaiah Cousins, Hield, Ryan Spangler and Jordan Woodard have each started every game for OU the past three seasons, tallying 344 combined starts during that span. With the addition of Khadeem Lattin, OU boasts a starting five with 384 combined career starts.

LM Otero/Associated Press

Through seven games, OU is shooting 46.6 percent from three-point range in league play. Only Texas' 43.7 percent in 2007 comes close, when the Longhorns had some guy named Kevin Durant.

Yes, Oklahoma is going to be tough to stop.

It's not a sure thing. It will be attacked at a variety of angles, at both ends of the floor. There will be spoiler attempts and legitimate title threats.

But for now, it sure seems right to bank on Kruger ending KU's 11-year stronghold, not to mention a nearly 20-year personal conference-title drought.

Stats courtesy of KenPom.com.