Undefeated Virginia Showing No Weaknesses for Duke to Exploit in ACC Showdown

Compared to Wednesday night's 77-73 loss in a buckets bonanza against Notre Dame, No. 4 Duke's game Saturday against No. 2 and undefeated Virginia is going to feel like trench warfare.

We hope Jahlil Okafor cherished those one-on-one situations against Notre Dame's 6'5" Bonzie Colson, because he's probably going to be triple-teamed more often than single-covered by the Cavaliers.

The unstoppable force versus the immovable object.

The potential National Player of the Year against possibly the most impenetrable defense in more than a decade.

It's the "individual" matchup everyone is going to be talking about, so we might as well start there. But even though there's a reasonable expectation that Okafor will win this battle, Virginia is still likely to win the war. 

Perhaps the biggest thing to note is that Virginia has yet to face anything close to an Okafor this season. Think back through the list of 19 teams the Cavaliers have beaten this year and try to find a dominant big man.

Notre Dame's Zach Auguste puts up solid numbers, but he's much more of a pick-and-roll specialist than a back-to-the-basket force. After him, the best interior presence Virginia has faced is either VCU's Mo Alie-Cox, Miami's Tonye Jekiri or Maryland's Damonte Dodd—and let's just say those post players aren't exactly vying for Okafor's spot as the top draft prospect.

Sam Vecenie of CBSSports.com doesn't even have any of those guys listed in his top 100 prospects.

North Carolina State's Kyle Washington is the only player to record a double-double against the Cavaliers this season, but that's likely because they haven't yet faced a single player who currently has more than six double-doubles.

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Rather, we have to go back to last season to see how Virginia deals with future NBA big men.

The answer: Not well.

Jarnell Stokes had 20 points in Tennessee's 87-52 win over the Cavaliers. Clemson's K.J. McDaniels scored 24 of his team's 58 points in a losing effort. Before Markus Kennedy really started coming out of his shell, he and Yanick Moreira combined for 25 points and 10 rebounds in nearly upsetting Virginia. Even Amile Jefferson had 10 points and 15 rebounds in Duke's regular-season win over Virginia.

The big one, though, was Branden Dawson and Adreian Payne combining for 40 points to eliminate the Cavaliers from the NCAA tournament.

On the one hand, that was last year. All of those games happened before Anthony Gill and Justin Anderson blossomed into two of the most valuable players in the country and before Darion Atkins really started to shine as a beast in the paint.

On the other hand, Tony Bennett's defensive scheme hasn't changed, and the Cavaliers are now playing without Akil Mitchell—easily their best interior defender of the past few years before graduating this past summer.

This isn't to say Okafor is destined to have a field day against a team that ranks second in the nation in two-point field-goal defense, but it might be even more delusional to assume that this is where his season-long streak of scoring in double figures comes to an end.

However, even if he does to Virginia what he did to Notre Dame (22 points and 17 rebounds), there's still the not-so-minor issue of needing to get points elsewhere.

That's where Virginia's Pack-Line defense really comes into play.

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While the 2014-15 Cavaliers may not have much experience against talented big men, they have played their fair share of guards who are (or were at one time) Player of the Year candidates—and stifled them all.

Maryland's Melo Trimble did some damage from the free-throw line, but he shot just 2-of-9 from the field against Virginia. Notre Dame's Jerian Grant shot 2-of-8 and scored six points. Harvard's Wesley Saunders didn't convert on a single field-goal attempt.

Rob Dauster of NBCSports' College Basketball Talk broke down Virginia's defense a few weeks ago. Long story short, this isn't your average foe. Beating Virginia basically comes down to being able to dribble-penetrate through multiple players and hitting three-pointers as defenders run at you with a hand in your face.

It doesn't sound easy, and it's even more difficult to execute. Notre Dame has the most efficient offense in recent memory. The Fighting Irish love pick-and-roll plays, and they can penetrate before kicking to a perimeter shooter better than just about any team in the country.

They scored 56 points at home against Virginia. It was the only time this year they've been held to fewer than 75 points on their own court. Seth Davis of Sports Illustrated and CBS Sports put it best with this tweet in the middle of the game:

Despite the surprising news Thursday that Rasheed Sulaimon has been dismissed from the team, Duke still has players in Tyus Jones, Quinn Cook and Justise Winslow who have the necessary skills to exploit the weaknesses in Virginia's defense, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will work. Knowing how to beat a defense and actually executing that game plan don't always go hand-in-hand.

But, hey, let's even assume it does work. Maybe Okafor scores 20 points and the perimeter players hit a dozen three-pointers en route to a 70-point team effort.

Congratulations, Duke! You've won 50 percent of the battle!

Much has been made of Virginia's stout defense this season, but the Cavaliers also possess the fifth-most efficient offense in the country, according to KenPom.com.

After presumably expending a ton of energy on every offensive possession, how can Duke's guards possibly have enough left in the tank to keep Justin Anderson, Malcolm Brogdon and London Perrantes from eating them alive?

Just take a look at how much they have already struggled this season against teams that didn't completely wear them down:

Player, Team	Production
Travis Trice, Michigan State	15 points, 8 assists
Chasson Randle, Stanford	22 points
Ryan Boatright, Connecticut	22 points
Traevon Jackson, Wisconsin	25 points
Olivier Hanlan, Boston College	22 points
Codi Miller-McIntyre, Wake Forest	13 points, 8 assists
Trevor Lacey, NC State	21 points
Angel Rodriguez, Miami	24 points
Manu Lecomte, Miami	23 points
Terry Rozier, Louisville	17 points
Rysheed Jordan, St. John's	18 points
Jerian Grant, Notre Dame	23 points, 12 assists

Only two teams this season have scored more than 65 points in a game against the Cavaliers, and Davidson and Miami couldn't do anything to slow Virginia's offense as it scored 83 and 89, respectively.

Do you really think Duke is going to be able to keep those guards under wraps if they decide to do some scoring?

Expect a low-scoring affair Saturday, but don't think that a game played in the 70s necessarily works to Duke's advantage. Much like Wisconsin, the Cavaliers prefer a slow-paced game, but they aren't afraid to put up points against teams that insist on speeding up the tempo.

As if the zero in Virginia's loss column wasn't evidence enough, it's pretty clear that Mike Krzyzewski is going to have a lot of trouble getting to win No. 1,001 in his career this weekend.

Should they lose, the Blue Devils would be swimming in mostly uncharted waters.

Only once in the past 18 seasons has Duke been .500 or worse in ACC play eight or more games into its conference schedule. That happened in 2006-07—the only season during that stretch of nearly two decades in which the Blue Devils didn't enter the NCAA tournament ranked in the AP Top 10.

You'll inevitably hear about the pressure the Cavaliers are facing in trying to remain undefeated, but it's the Blue Devils who desperately need to avoid a loss in the most challenging game of both teams' seasons.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.