Contender or Pretender: Final Four Chances for Each Top 25 NCAA Basketball Team
Not every AP Top 25 team should be considered a contender to reach the Final Four of the 2015 NCAA tournament.
We're not even convinced every team in the Top 10 is worthy of that honor.
Obviously, we have no idea who these teams will be facing in the NCAA tournament. We're left to assume they'll each be facing opponents with different strengths and weaknesses. As such, teams with the biggest Achilles' heels are considered pretenders, while those who should be expected to perform well regardless of the competition are labeled contenders.
In total, 15 of the AP Top 25 teams were given the contender label. You don't need a math degree to know 15 teams cannot make the Final Four, but there are 15 fanbases that wouldn't be completely insane for making hotel reservations in Indianapolis for early April.
The other 10 fanbases should feel free to bookmark this page for the purpose of proper mudslinging in a few months when your team defies our early expectations by making a run to the national semifinals.
25. Butler Bulldogs
1 of 25
Recipe for Success
It's already hard for teams to shoot in neutral-court environments with all the pressure in the world on their shoulders, but it'll be even harder to do so against Butler.
In Butler's wins over North Carolina, Georgetown, St. John's, Xavier and the second game against Seton Hall, the opposition shot a combined 21-of-85 (24.7 percent) from beyond the arc. Perimeter defense like that could go a long way in March.
Recipe for Disaster
Shot-blocking big men have made life miserable for Butler.
Hanner Mosquera-Perea blocked four shots for the Indiana Hoosiers when they beat Butler. Daniel Ochefu had five of Villanova's nine blocks in beating the Bulldogs. Providence had 10 as a team while defeating Butler in Indianapolis.
Now, North Carolina also blocked 10 Butler shots in Atlantis, but the Bulldogs won that game by grabbing a mind-blowing 29 offensive rebounds. Running into a great shot-blocker isn't necessarily the end of the world, but it does mean they have to execute at a much higher level in other facets of the game.
Verdict: Pretender
The odds of running into four straight teams that neither block shots nor drain three-pointers is pretty slim. Though it certainly wouldn't be the first time in recent tournament history Butler surprised us with a deep run.
24. Oklahoma Sooners
2 of 25
Recipe for Success
One of the biggest keys for Oklahoma is getting everyone involved on offense. Buddy Hield is an outstanding player, but the Sooners don't need or want him taking 20 shots per game.
In their three Big 12 wins, Hield has averaged 11.3 field-goal attempts and been used on 26 percent of possessions or less. In the four losses, though, he's averaging 17.3 shots and has been used on at least 28 percent of possessions.
We're not saying he can't be Kemba Walker, but he doesn't need to be. The Sooners have solid secondary scoring options, and they're better when they remember that.
Recipe for Disaster
Field-goal defense has been the best predictor for Oklahoma wins and losses.
When holding opponents to less than 42.5 percent shooting, the Sooners are 12-1. But when the other team makes at least 42.5 percent of its shots, Oklahoma is 0-6.
They don't force a lot of turnovers or block a lot of shots, but they contest well enough to rank fifth in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. However, they haven't been nearly as successful as of late, losing four of their last five while opponents have shot a combined 44.7 percent from the field.
Verdict: Pretender
The Sooners are better than most at making opponents miss shots, but that's a very thin tightrope to walk for a team that doesn't shoot exceptionally well, is very average at rebounding and occasionally struggles with turnovers. Eventually, a tournament team is going to shoot better than 42.5 percent and send Oklahoma home sooner than it would like.
23. Miami Hurricanes
3 of 25
Recipe for Success
Soar on the wings of an Angel.
Oklahoma doesn't need to rely exclusively on Buddy Hield, but Miami's best chance at stringing together a few wins is to just stand back and let Angel Rodriguez do his thing. He had 24 points against both Florida and Duke in winning efforts and he scored 25 as Miami nearly became the team to end Virginia's perfect season.
Recipe for Disaster
The Hurricanes' recipe for success is also their recipe for disaster.
In Miami's losses to teams other than Virginia, Rodriguez has shot 5-of-25 from three-point range and just 19.6 percent from the field.
Hopefully we can avoid being inundated with the search for the next Shabazz Napier this March, but if there's one lead guard in the country who means that much to his team's ability to win games, it's Rodriguez.
Verdict: Pretender
If you're searching for the No. 8 seed most likely to upset a No. 1 seed to reach the Sweet 16, you're probably looking at them. This team clearly isn't afraid of the big stage. But ugly losses to Eastern Kentucky, Green Bay and Providence make it pretty difficult to trust Miami to get hot for two weeks.
22. Indiana Hoosiers
4 of 25
Recipe for Success
Let it rain.
Indiana is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation. The Hoosiers are averaging 22.5 attempts per game and sinking 41 percent of them.
Yogi Ferrell and James Blackmon Jr. are leading the way, but Nick Zeisloft, Robert Johnson and Collin Hartman can stroke it, too. We'd love to see them just go crazy and attempt more than 40 three-pointers in a tournament game. Each three-point attempt is worth 1.23 points, so why not?
Recipe for Disaster
Teams committed to playing through the post can destroy the Hoosiers. It was already bad when they had Hanner Mosquera-Perea, but it's been even worse since he went down with a knee injury.
On Sunday, Ohio State made more two-point field goals (28) than Indiana attempted (25). Georgetown nearly did the same last month, making 28-of-56 shots from inside the arc while the Hoosiers attempted just 30.
If they're able to consistently trade three for two, they might be able to overcome that problem, but it takes an awful lot of successful three-pointers to make up for opponents scoring 50 points in the paint.
Verdict: Pretender
As was the case with Butler, it's hard to foresee Indiana drawing four consecutive opponents who aren't willing and able to wreak havoc in the paint. If Ohio State was able to kick the Hoosiers in the teeth, just imagine what a team like Arizona or North Carolina could do.
21. Georgetown Hoyas
5 of 25
Recipe for Success
Make sure Joshua Smith is going to class.
Last season, Georgetown was 10-3 and looking like a tournament-bound team, but it all went off the rails in a hurry when Smith was ruled academically ineligible. The Hoyas lost 12 of their next 20 games.
But as long as he's out on the court playing more and better than ever before, this is a very intimidating team that can hurt you in a number of ways.
Recipe for Disaster
What happens if they continue to leave their great defense at home?
In 11 home games, Georgetown has held its opponents to an average of 0.92 points per possession. The Hoyas have been especially fierce in Big East play, holding their four conference foes to 59.3 points per game at home.
But in eight road/neutral games, they're allowing 1.07 points per possession and struggling to force turnovers.
Having trouble shooting away from home is a pretty common problem, but it's strange that their defensive intensity has waned away from the Verizon Center.
Verdict: Contender
Maybe I was deluded by their stomping of Villanova, but the Hoyas look like a very strong team that will only get better as their talented freshman class continues to develop. Both Smith and Mikael Hopkins saved their best for last as seniors, and Jabril Trawick has been pretty outstanding in his final year of eligibility as well.
And we haven't even seen the best of what D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera has to offer, either.
20. Baylor Bears
6 of 25
Recipe for Success
Keep crashing the offensive glass.
The Bears don't do a lot of things very well. They commit too many turnovers. They don't shoot well inside the arc. They shoot even worse at the free-throw line.
But being the best offensive rebounding team in the nation corrects a lot of those shortcomings.
In 19 games, Rico Gathers has more offensive rebounds (105) than the Denver Pioneers have as an entire team in 20 games (97).
Recipe for Disaster
Baylor's defense is solid, but opposing teams have had no problem moving the ball against them. The Bears rank 350th in the nation in assists per field goals allowed.
Part of that just comes with the territory of playing a zone defense, but they've struggled with forcing turnovers and denying passing lanes against teams with competent guards.
Kansas had 19 assists and just eight turnovers in winning at Baylor. Iowa State had 20 assists against nine turnovers while coming just one point shy of a road win against the Bears.
They even allowed NAIA Huston-Tillotson to record 14 assists against just nine turnovers last week.
Verdict: Contender
Baylor is an iffy contender, but hustle reigns supreme in March. Teams who dominate the offensive glass or the turnover battle tend to have better luck in single-elimination tournaments than teams who rely on finesse or three-point shooting.
The Bears might not actually make the Final Four, but they won't be going down without a fight.
19. Texas Longhorns
7 of 25
Recipe for Success
As mentioned at least a half-dozen times by either Brent Musburger or Fran Fraschilla during Monday night's game against Iowa State, Rick Barnes wants to get Myles Turner at least 15 shots per game.
What took him so long to realize that's an excellent idea, we'll never know, but when he and Cameron Ridley are able to do some damage in the paint, this team is exponentially better.
Recipe for Disaster
After the recent 13-point home loss to Kansas, senior forward Jonathan Holmes told reporters, "We're one of the biggest teams in the country, and we don't take advantage of it. I don't understand it."
Bad things happen when these Longhorns fall in love with their three-point stroke. Over the past nine games, they're 4-0 when attempting 15 or fewer triples and 0-4 when attempting 18 or more. Part of that is the need for points in attempting to mount a comeback, but they simply aren't as successful against teams who keep them from running the offense through the post.
Verdict: Pretender
Texas looked incredible against West Virginia two weeks ago, but the Mountaineers are an undersized team that doesn't shoot well. They had no hope against Texas' front line. However, teams physically capable of slowing down Turner and Ridley have given the Longhorns fits.
Their odds of facing four straight opponents without a significant interior presence are slim to none.
18. Northern Iowa Panthers
8 of 25
Recipe for Success
Control the tempo.
Northern Iowa ranks 344th in average possession length on offense and 345th on defense. No matter who the Panthers are playing, the over/under for total points belongs somewhere near 110.
That's frustrating as heck for some teams, but it fits right into their comfort zone. They contest everything and very rarely attempt contested shots of their own. If they could just do a better job of avoiding turnovers and blocking shots, they'd be a mid-major Virginia.
Recipe for Disaster
At such a slow pace of play, it doesn't take much for things to go awry.
They lost to Evansville by a score of 52-49 while the Aces shot just 1-of-11 from three-point range. Northern Iowa nearly lost to Illinois State on Sunday thanks to 16 turnovers and 16 offensive rebounds for the Redbirds.
Every possession and every rebound is critical. And even though that's their preference, it can easily come back to bite the Panthers at any time.
Verdict: Pretender
A good offensive rebounding team that can force turnovers is an absolute nightmare for Northern Iowa, and there will be plenty of those in the tournament. It's unlikely anyone will be able to speed the Panthers up, but high-major conference teams willing to play at their speed will be too athletic and talented for them to handle.
17. West Virginia Mountaineers
9 of 25
Recipe for Success
Crash the glass and be a pain in the...butt.
West Virginia gets a steal on 17.5 percent of defensive possessions. Not only is that best in the country, but the Mountaineers are further ahead of VCU at No. 2 than VCU is ahead of Marquette at No. 12. They don't all play enough minutes to qualify, but there are eight Mountaineers with a steal percentage of 3.9 percent or better.
And while this is not a very good shooting team, they do a fine job of avoiding turnovers and grab 41.8 percent of their own missed shots—good for the fifth-highest percentage in the country.
Basically, West Virginia out-hustles its opponents on both ends of the court on a regular basis.
Recipe for Disaster
WVU simply has no answer for talented big men.
Jarell Martin had 18 points and 14 rebounds in the home loss to LSU. Georges Niang, Abdel Nader and Jameel McKay combined for 41 points, 19 rebounds and six blocks in the home loss to Iowa State. Myles Turner, Cameron Ridley and Jonathan Holmes each had at least 16 points in eviscerating the Mountaineers by a 27-point margin.
Fun as it would be to watch West Virginia's guards annoy the heck out of the Harrison twins, could you even imagine the carnage in the paint if the Mountaineers ran into Kentucky in the tournament?
Verdict: Contender
They might be the worst shooting team to ever make the Final Four, but if VCU could get there on the merits of insatiable defense a few years ago, why couldn't the Mountaineers do it this year? They might get destroyed by a team that runs its offense through the paint, but they also might keep their opponent from ever comfortably settling into that strategy.
16. Maryland Terrapins
10 of 25
Recipe for Success
Maintain a drastic free-throw disparity.
With Dez Wells finally looking healthy and Melo Trimble playing like the best freshman point guard in the country, Maryland should be interchangeably sending those guys to the rim on every possession. They're both extremely capable of scoring, drawing contact or pitching it out to the wing to an open Jake Layman or Jared Nickens.
Drawing contact is the big key, though. Maryland has drawn 105 more fouls than it has committed this season, resulting in 199 more free throws than the opposition. At 74.7 percent shooting, that's an advantage of more than seven points per game at the charity stripe.
In the losses to Illinois and Indiana, though, Maryland attempted fewer free throws than its opponent. Trimble and Wells combined for just 10 between the two games. That's inexcusable.
Recipe for Disaster
Though the Terrapins have made more free throws than their opponents have attempted, they have also committed more turnovers than they have forced this season.
That's more the product of a lack of aggression on defense than it is an abundance of sloppiness on offense, but it's still concerning that they struggle to create steals on the perimeter and only have one above-average interior defender. Furthermore, Damonte Dodd only plays about 16 minutes per game.
Verdict: Contender
The Terrapins are still coming together as a team after dealing with a handful of early injuries, but they have the potential to make a deep tournament run. They still have room for growth—especially on offense—but they should get there by March.
15. Iowa State Cyclones
11 of 25
Recipe for Success
Speed is everything for Iowa State.
The Cyclones are 9-1 in games with more than 70 possessions and 2-2 in games played at a pace of 67 possessions or slower—and one of those two wins was almost a home loss to Oklahoma State.
Allow them to run and they'll run you right out of the arena.
Recipe for Disaster
Last time we checked, the NCAA tournament isn't being played in Ames, Iowa, and that could spell trouble for Iowa State's shooting.
The Cyclones don't always struggle away from home, but they've done so more than enough to make us worry that an offensive dud is inevitable over the course of four straight neutral-court games. They shot 22.2 percent from beyond the arc against Maryland, 19.4 percent against Texas Tech and 5.6 percent against South Carolina—all losses away from home.
Verdict: Pretender
It's far too easy to get a team out of its offensive rhythm in the tournament. Teams like Northern Iowa, Utah, Virginia and Wisconsin would slow the game down and limit fast-break opportunities so much that it would drive Iowa State's players crazy. Even a team like Harvard that has struggled this season could be a real nightmare for the Cyclones because of its methodical pace on offense.
Throw in the unreliable three-point shooting outside of Hilton Coliseum and it's tough to see Iowa State lasting until the national semifinals.
14. Virginia Commonwealth Rams
12 of 25
Recipe for Success
Wreak "Havoc."
Half-court offense hasn't exactly been VCU's forte under Shaka Smart, but the Rams have always been a serious threat because of their overbearing defense. Thus far this season, they have forced 131 more turnovers than they have committed.
Recipe for Disaster
Forcing a ton of turnovers is fantastic until you run into a point guard who isn't bothered by that type of pressure.
Never was that more apparent than in the first weekend of the 2013 NCAA tournament. VCU destroyed an Akron team forced to play with a backup point guard because its starter was suspended, but the Rams were subsequently blown out by Michigan and Trey Burke.
Verdict: Pretender
Their swarming pressure works well against lesser teams, but Virginia and Villanova combined to beat VCU by 40 points.
Keep the Rams from forcing turnovers and creating fast-break opportunities, and they're exceptionally mortal.
It doesn't help matters that their center is 6'6", either. Mo Alie-Cox has a motor the size of a jet engine, but you can't teach height.
13. North Carolina Tar Heels
13 of 25
Recipe for Success
Get Brice Johnson going.
North Carolina's lanky power forward has struggled at times this season, but the Tar Heels are 15-0 when he grabs six or more rebounds.
It's not that six is some magic number, but it's just evidence that he's engaged in the game and not dealing with foul trouble. Johnson has a double-double in four of the six games in North Carolina's current winning streak.
Recipe for Disaster
North Carolina hasn't exactly been immune to the turnover bug this season. The Tar Heels do play at a fast pace, but it's still not overwhelmingly promising that they have already committed at least 16 turnovers in seven of their 21 games.
J.P. Tokoto has been the biggest offender, averaging 2.5 turnovers per game despite arguably being the fifth-best option in North Carolina's offense. He needs to work on just taking what the game is giving him.
Verdict: Contender
We might have come to a different conclusion three weeks ago, but North Carolina is finally putting it all together.
You never want to rock the boat when things are going well, but don't be surprised if the Tar Heels eventually work Nate Britt into the starting rotation at Tokoto's expense. As Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports Network tweeted on Monday night, this team just looks a lot better when Marcus Paige isn't the only guard on the court capable of running the offense.
12. Wichita State Shockers
14 of 25
Recipe for Success
Get the bench involved.
We love Ron Baker as much as the next guy, but he can't be the whole offense. Rather, Wichita State can bank on getting 15-20 points from him and just worry about cobbling together 45-50 points elsewhere.
If most of that comes from Darius Carter, Tekele Cotton and Fred VanVleet, so be it, but the Shockers are at their best when Shaquille Morris and Rashard Kelly are doing some damage off the bench.
Recipe for Disaster
This isn't an outstanding offensive team in the paint, but it has been especially incapable of making two-point shots in losses.
In falling to George Washington and Utah, the Shockers shot 23-of-67 (34.3 percent) inside the arc and attempted a grand total of 15 free throws.
Like Alan Williams at UC Santa Barbara, Carter is an outstanding 6'7" big man, but he's pretty much all this team has in the post. He's not easy to stop, but pull it off and you've shut down Wichita State's interior game.
Verdict: Contender
Wichita State doesn't have a ton of offensive weapons, but it doesn't need them. Only Hawaii has scored more than 70 points against the Shockers defense, and the Rainbow Warriors needed overtime to do it. Since that game, they have held their last nine opponents to 62 points or less.
Missouri Valley or not, that's pretty doggone good defense. As long as Baker doesn't go ice cold in the tournament, they could absolutely win at least four straight games.
11. Utah Utes
15 of 25
Recipe for Success
Defend the paint.
Things got out of control in the loss to Arizona, as the Wildcats made 25-of-46 two-point shots, but the Utes have held their other 18 opponents to just 38.5 percent shooting inside the arc.
Freshman Jakob Poeltl is almost entirely to thank for their improved interior defense, as he is leading the team in block percentage and defensive rebounding percentage by a country mile.
Recipe for Disaster
Can they consistently shoot away from home?
Utah is shooting 49.9 percent from the field on the season. The Utes rank fifth in the nation in that category. But five of their six worst shooting games of the season came away from home—and they have only played six games on the road.
Get them out of their friendly confines, and they're shooting a fairly pedestrian 41.1 percent.
Verdict: Contender
If the poor-shooting trend continues this week at UCLA and USC, maybe we amend the Utes to a pretender. Until then, though, how can we not buy stock in a team that has won nine of its last 10 games by at least a 13-point margin?
10. Louisville Cardinals
16 of 25
Recipe for Success
Continually remind Chris Jones that he is the point guard.
When Jones is doling out assists and starting fast breaks with steals, Louisville is one of the toughest teams in the country to beat. But when he's jacking up five or more three-point attempts and not particularly bothering to stay engaged on defense or get others involved on offense, the Cardinals tend to struggle.
Recipe for Disaster
The loss to Duke really exposed Louisville as a team that cannot consistently shoot three-pointers.
The Cardinals bounced back nicely by hitting 6-of-12 triples against Pittsburgh, but that was the first time this season they shot better than 41.2 percent from beyond the arc as a team.
Opponents who aren't afraid to pack the lane and take away Montrezl Harrell at the cost of occasionally uncontested three-point attempts could cause some serious problems.
Verdict: Contender
How quickly we forget that Louisville was a pretty bad three-point shooting team two years ago when it won the national championship.
The offense will occasionally struggle, but the defense can make up for it. The Cardinals rank fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency, sixth in defensive effective field-goal percentage, sixth in steal percentage and 11th in block percentage.
Forget about the 4-of-25 three-point shooting against Duke. They still held the Blue Devils to 63 points.
9. Kansas Jayhawks
17 of 25
Recipe for Success
Keep bringing along Cliff Alexander.
The phenom freshman forward has looked good the past two games, and he is a huge part of why the Jayhawks look like a national championship contender.
With him coming around and Devonte' Graham returning from injury, Kansas has itself a pretty exceptional eight-man rotation.
Recipe for Disaster
Kansas has offensive weapons in spades, but the defensive intensity isn't always top-notch.
After playing very well in the first half against Oklahoma and opening up a 19-point halftime lead, the Jayhawks immediately gave it away to a team that has otherwise had trouble doing anything on offense for the past couple of weeks.
The Jayhawks have proved on many occasions that they can play very good defense. They just don't want to on a consistent basis.
Verdict: Contender
Like there was any doubt that the best team from the best conference would be considered a Final Four contender.
And here's a suggestion that might make Kansas even better: Put Graham into the starting lineup in place of Wayne Selden. Graham has an O-rating of at least 118 in all five games since returning. Selden, meanwhile, hasn't broken 100 in any of those games and only has four games of 118 or above all season.
Bill Self clearly isn't above letting talented players figure out their problems while seated on the bench, so we have to wonder how many more games Selden will have to try to shoot his way out of what is becoming a career-long slump.
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
18 of 25
Recipe for Success
Be efficient. B-E efficient.
In terms of adjusted offensive efficiency, Notre Dame has the best offense in the country. The Fighting Irish are shooting 60.1 percent from two-point range (first in the nation), 40 percent from three-point range (13th in the nation) and committing turnovers on just 13.8 percent of possessions (second in the nation).
They have four players averaging better than 13 points per game and another two good for at least eight points per night.
Maybe one or two guys go cold on any given night, but they have enough weapons to be more immune to bad offensive outputs than probably any other team in the country.
Recipe for Disaster
Defense wins championships, but Notre Dame doesn't play much of that.
Through seven ACC games, the Fighting Irish are allowing 1.06 points per possession. Now, they are also scoring 1.14 points per possession, and they've won six of those seven games. What happens, though, during the one inevitable tournament game when they can't score at will?
Verdict: Pretender
Yes, I was the one who wrote about Notre Dame being a Final Four contender three weeks ago. But that was before the Fighting Irish got into the annoying habit of digging themselves giant holes to crawl out of.
They were down by at least 10 points in five of their last seven games. They even trailed North Carolina State by 18 on Sunday before coming all the way back for a win.
If you like the glass-half-full perspective, they have shown great poise and tenacity to come back from such big deficits. When searching for Final Four contenders, though, we prefer the ones who aren't incessantly playing from behind.
7. Villanova Wildcats
19 of 25
Recipe for Success
This isn't a groundbreaking revelation, but Villanova is a lot better when it's making shots.
In games where the Wildcats shoot at least 45.5 percent from the field, they're 11-0 and winning by an average margin of 20.7 points. None of those games were decided by fewer than 12 points.
For some teams, good defense leads to good offense, but Villanova's offensive efficiency instead spills over to defensive intensity. If the Wildcats get out to an early lead, it's game over.
Recipe for Disaster
Daniel Ochefu has been outstanding this season.
However, he proved in the loss to Seton Hall (19 points and 24 rebounds) that he can't carry the team by himself, and the Wildcats proved in the loss to Georgetown that they aren't the same without him (four points and four rebounds).
Until JayVaughn Pinkston starts tapping into his potential, Villanova can be beaten by a team that really commits to shutting down Ochefu—which effectively kills the Wildcats' entire interior presence.
Verdict: Pretender
Here's a question: Down by two with 15 seconds remaining, for whom does Villanova draw up the game-winning shot?
For most Top 25 teams, the answer to that question is either blatantly obvious or only difficult because there are multiple very good options. For Villanova, though, it's either Ochefu or whichever guard has had the hot hand on that night. No one really stands out as that go-to guy.
When Villanova fell behind early against Georgetown last week, not a single player had a "don't worry, I got this" look on his face. Rather, they all seemed to be looking around at each other hoping someone would volunteer to play that part.
You don't want to be too reliant on one player, but you need an ice-in-his-veins type of guy in order to survive until the final weekend of the tournament.
6. Arizona Wildcats
20 of 25
Recipe for Success
An Ashley a day keeps the upsets away.
When Brandon Ashley is playing well on both ends of the court, Arizona is an upper-echelon team capable of beating anyone in the country. The Wildcats were 21-0 before his season-ending injury last year, and there's no denying he played poorly in this year's losses to UNLV and Oregon State.
Recipe for Disaster
For most teams, rebounding margin is overstated, if not entirely irrelevant. But for an Arizona team that isn't exactly prolific from three-point range, losing the rebound battle is a great way to become very mortal.
According to rebounding totals as recorded by Sports-Reference.com, the Wildcats are 13-0 when they have a rebounding margin of plus-seven or better. Their average margin of victory in those games is 21.5, and only one game—a four-point win over Kansas State—was decided by fewer than 14 points.
In the other seven games, they have lost twice and only once won by more than seven points—a 19-point win over Missouri the day before the aforementioned win over Kansas State.
Thus, Arizona's recipe for disaster is failing to dominate the glass—an inexcusable problem for a team with five big men who rebound well.
Verdict: Contender
If we count Stanley Johnson as a shooting guard, he and T.J. McConnell might be the best, most reliable backcourt duo in the country.
Throw in Arizona's size advantage against just about every team in the country and the fact that the Wildcats have a surefire first-round pick in Rondae Hollis-Jefferson that we haven't even mentioned yet, and it's hard to envision this team falling victim to an early upset—despite the surprising losses they already have this season.
5. Wisconsin Badgers
21 of 25
Recipe for Success
Get and stay healthy.
In the loss to Duke, Sam Dekker was playing through an ankle injury and Nigel Hayes was a nonfactor while dealing with foul trouble. In the loss to Rutgers, Frank Kaminsky was out with a concussion and Traevon Jackson suffered a badly sprained ankle.
Outside of those two games, the Badgers are undefeated and looking very strong.
Recipe for Disaster
Normally one of the toughest defenses to consistently score against, Wisconsin has already allowed five opponents to shoot better than 50 percent from the field this season. Two of those five games were the ones mentioned above when the Badgers were at less than 100 percent, but what's the excuse against Georgetown, Penn State and Purdue?
Between the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons, Wisconsin allowed just four of its 71 opponents to shoot better than 50 percent, so it's a bit concerning that it has already happened five times in 20 games this year.
Verdict: Contender
Field-goal defense be darned, Wisconsin's offense is more efficient than ever, and the Badgers are grabbing defensive rebounds at a rate that's even ridiculously high for them.
As long as they aren't covered in slings and bandages when the tournament arrives, they'll be one of the favorites to reach the Final Four.
4. Duke Blue Devils
22 of 25
Recipe for Success
Get Tyus Jones involved.
The freshman point guard was an absolute ghost in the losses to North Carolina State and Miami, but he was the G.O.A.T. in key wins against Michigan State, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Louisville and St. John's.
You know Duke is going to get around 20 points and eight rebounds from Jahlil Okafor night in and night out. It's when Robin shows up to assist Batman that Duke is unstoppable.
Recipe for Disaster
Duke has had trouble with opponents getting hot from three-point range, but isn't that every team's recipe for disaster? The Blue Devils may be more susceptible to it than most, but anyone can fall victim to a hot-shooting guard or two.
But what if Justise Winslow never returns to early season form?
Jones and Okafor have been a great one-two punch for most of the season, and Quinn Cook and Amile Jefferson have provided great veteran leadership. But can Duke reach its full potential without Winslow?
The man had at least 14 points in each of the first five games of his college career, but he only has 12 points over the past four games.
The Blue Devils have survived without him, but getting next to nothing out of your starting small forward isn't a long-term winning strategy.
Verdict: Contender
Duke lost its first game in two of the last three tournaments, but those teams didn't have Okafor. The most dominant big man in the country will keep this group from falling flat on its face again.
3. Gonzaga Bulldogs
23 of 25
Recipe for Success
Ride the big men.
With very few exceptions, there isn't a better three-headed frontcourt monster in the country than Kyle Wiltjer, Przemek Karnowski and Domantas Sabonis. They've taken turns annihilating opponents in WCC play.
Because of them, Gonzaga is among the best in the country at rebounding and two-point percentage on both ends of the court.
The more things run through those three big men, the more opportunities will open up for Kevin Pangos, Gary Bell and Byron Wesley.
Recipe for Disaster
Nothing about this year's crop of players stands out as something to worry about. The biggest concern for 2014-15 Gonzaga is ignoring what everyone says about 1999-2014 Gonzaga.
Despite making every tournament, the Bulldogs haven't advanced beyond the Sweet 16 in this century. Heck, they haven't even reached the Sweet 16 since 2009.
That has absolutely nothing to do with this team, but that won't stop it from being a prevalent narrative for the entire month of March.
Verdict: Contender
This team is undefeated outside of an overtime loss at Arizona. If Gonzaga isn't a contender for the Final Four, no one is.
2. Virginia Cavaliers
24 of 25
Recipe for Success
Just keep doing what they're doing.
It isn't sexy, but no one can solve Virginia's pack line defense. A grand total of two teams have shot better than 40 percent from the field against the Cavaliers this season. Three teams have scored less than 30 points.
Their offense can be a bit hit or miss at times, but that really just determines whether they win by six points or 36 points.
Recipe for Disaster
A team that moves the ball well and isn't afraid to shoot from four feet beyond the arc could be a problem. It's why Notre Dame, Davidson and Miami gave the Cavaliers three of their biggest scares of the season and why Duke might be the team that finally ends their perfect season.
Virginia defends inside the arc about as well as any team in the country and allows a very limited number of offensive rebounds, but those strengths can be negated by a lot of motion and deep shots that either go in or lead to deep rebounds, which are usually 50-50 balls.
There aren't many teams in the country that are comfortable with that offensive game plan, but a team like Iowa State or a rematch with Maryland would be a challenge.
Verdict: Contender
Even if they finally face a team that can score against them, that squad still needs to stop the Cavaliers from scoring. Davidson and Miami learned the hard way.
After all, the Wahoos rank sixth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. They've already scored at least 74 points in eight different games, which probably comes as a surprise for a team most renowned for holding opponents to a miniscule amount of points.
They aren't unbeatable, but it might take something close to a perfect game to pull it off.
1. Kentucky Wildcats
25 of 25
Recipe for Success
Be Kentucky.
Like Virginia, Kentucky doesn't need any magic formula aside from what it has already discovered.
This is the most athletically gifted team in the country. The Wildcats have at least eight different players who can kill you on any given night, and it's typically a different guy from one night to the next. As long as they don't become overly reliant on one or two players, no one will beat them.
Recipe for Disaster
The only thing standing between Kentucky and the Final Four is Kentucky.
If Aaron Harrison falls back in love with his unreliable shot, the Wildcats might be vulnerable.
If Andrew Harrison reverts to the turnover-prone point guard we saw in December and most of last season, the Wildcats might be vulnerable.
If Karl-Anthony Towns and/or Willie Cauley-Stein gets into early foul trouble...you get the idea.
As long as the Wildcats play smart and don't lose focus—which should be easier in the tournament than it is in January SEC games—they can't be stopped.
Verdict: Contender
Look, if you actually think Kentucky is a pretender, we're amazed you even made it this far into the slideshow.
Statistics on the following slides are current through the start of play on Tuesday, Jan. 27 and are courtesy of ESPN.com, KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.
.jpg?w=600 "Full Eagles-Cowboys Trade 🤝")
.jpg?w=600 "Fans React to Simpson Pick")
.jpg?w=600 "Manning Asked Mendoza to Attend Draft")
