College Basketball Teams Most Likely to Stay Undefeated in Conference Play
Kentucky might go undefeated this season, but the Wildcats are not the most likely team to finish the year without a conference loss.
Over the past decade, an average of exactly two teams per season have finished with undefeated conference records. In none of those 10 seasons did more than three teams go undefeated against their loathed rivals.
It isn't anywhere near as rare as a team going the entire season (including conference and NCAA tournaments) without a loss, but it also doesn't happen nearly as often as you might think.
Kentucky is obviously one of the favorites to pull it off, but are the Wildcats more or less likely to accomplish the feat than Gonzaga, a team that has gone undefeated in WCC play in three of the past nine years?
What are Virginia's chances of running the table in one of the nation's best conferences? Or what about lesser-known teams like North Carolina Central and Texas Southern playing in significantly less talented conferences?
From the pool of 20 teams without a conference loss, we've ranked the 10 most likely to keep it that way.
On the following slides, "Chance Undefeated" is based on the calculations on the team pages of KenPom.com and is current through the end of play on Thursday, January 22.
Teams were not explicitly ranked in ascending order of this metric, but it was the primary contributing factor in the ranking logic. In addition to that summation of the probabilities, further consideration was given to the number of slightly or significantly challenging individual games remaining on each team's schedule.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 11
Though there are still 20 teams without a loss in conference play, we're only going to seriously entertain the notion of 10 of those teams actually finishing the season with a zero in the conference-losses column.
However, we would be remiss if we didn't at least mention every team remaining on the list while noting whether it's completely unlikely or just very unlikely that it runs the table.
Vince McMahon "No Chance" club (0.1 percent or less)
Princeton: 7-9 overall, 1-0 in Ivy League (0.00 percent)
Lipscomb: 10-9 overall, 4-0 in Atlantic Sun (0.01 percent)
Columbia: 9-6 overall, 1-0 in Ivy League (0.03 percent)
"You mean not good, like one out of a hundred?" (1.0 percent or less)
Alabama State: 9-5 overall, 5-0 in SWAC (0.2 percent)
Western Kentucky: 13-5 overall, 6-0 in C-USA (0.3 percent)
Tulsa: 13-5 overall, 6-0 in American (0.3 percent)
Yale: 12-6 overall, 1-0 in Ivy League (0.3 percent)
Stranger things have happened (5.5 percent or less)
North Florida: 12-9 overall, 4-0 in Atlantic Sun (3.1 percent)
Albany: 11-7 overall, 6-0 in America East (5.0 percent)
Sam Houston State: 14-4 overall, 6-0 in Southland (5.2 percent)
10. Harvard (Ivy League)
2 of 11
Record: 11-4 (1-0)
Biggest Hurdles Remaining: at Princeton (Jan. 30), at Yale (Feb. 7), at Columbia (Feb. 28)
Chance Undefeated: 4.3 percent
Welcome to the Ivy League, where it's almost February and every team has played just one conference game.
Yet, these teams have as many conference games remaining as Kentucky, so there's no good reason to omit them from the conversation.
But these teams know each other so well and play such a unique Friday/Saturday schedule that it's pretty rare for a team to go 14-0. It has only happened once in the past 11 seasons—Cornell pulled it off in 2007-08.
Of course, that just means the Ivy League is due for a perfect season. And as has been the case for a while now, Harvard is unquestionably the most likely candidate for an undefeated league record.
The Crimson have had their fair share of difficulties this season—losing to Holy Cross on the first weekend and getting absolutely destroyed by Virginia—but they're an excellent defensive team that has struggled to consistently put the ball in the hoop.
Wesley Saunders has been solid, but Siyani Chambers and Steve Moundou-Missi have been quite dreadful compared to their previous two seasons. If those two guys ever decide to show up this year, Harvard could absolutely make a flawless run through the Ivy League in preparation for another surprise or two in the NCAA tournament.
9. Virginia Commonwealth (Atlantic 10)
3 of 11
Record: 15-3 (5-0)
Biggest Hurdles Remaining: at George Washington (Feb. 14), at Richmond (Feb. 25), at Davidson (March 5)
Chance Undefeated: 3.6 percent
Since joining the A-10 before the 2012-13 season, it has felt like VCU should go undefeated in conference each season. Yet, the Rams couldn't even be bothered to win the conference the past two years, finishing second to Saint Louis in both seasons.
But Saint Louis isn't anywhere near the top of the A-10 this year. Neither is Massachusetts nor Saint Joseph's. And even though Dayton and George Washington have just one conference loss each, it doesn't feel like either one is anything close to a lock for the NCAA tournament.
VCU's best competition is a Davidson team that was supposed to finish in dead last in this conference.
Remind us why the Rams couldn't go undefeated here?
VCU is currently ranked No. 4 in RPI and No. 18 on KenPom.com. One spot ahead in each rating system is Kansas at No. 3 and No. 17, respectively.
Now, if the Jayhawks were facing VCU's remaining schedule, there wouldn't even be an argument. It would be a near-unanimous consensus that they wouldn't lose again this season. For some reason, though, VCU doesn't get anywhere near that level of respect.
We'll see if Shaka Smart and company can prove the doubters wrong.
8. Wichita State (Missouri Valley)
4 of 11
Record: 17-2 (7-0)
Biggest Hurdles Remaining: at Northern Iowa (Jan. 31), at Illinois State (Feb. 14), vs. Northern Iowa (Feb. 28)
Chance Undefeated: 15.1 percent
The Missouri Valley is better than last year, and Wichita State isn't quite as good as it was in 2013-14, so it's significantly less of a foregone conclusion that the Shockers will finish 18-0 in conference play.
There's still a pretty good chance that it happens, though.
After Wednesday night's 23-point win over Missouri State, head coach Gregg Marshall told Paul Suellentrop of The Wichita Eagle, "We're playing some pretty good basketball, and our depth is starting to show itself a little bit more. There's no slack off."
Northern Iowa will give the Shockers two very stiff tests—particularly next weekend in Cedar Falls—but those games are absolutely winnable. The Panthers are clearly better than they were a year ago, but they're hardly the favorites to win this league after a couple of close home wins over Loyola Chicago and Indiana State.
UNI's Seth Tuttle is one of the best mid-major players in the country, but WSU's Darius Carter isn't all that far behind him—if he's not actually more valuable than Tuttle, that is. If those two play to a draw in the paint, it's a major advantage for Wichita State with Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet.
Even if Carter is dominated by Tuttle, the Shockers will always have a chance to win games as long as Baker is hitting shots and VanVleet isn't attempting 15 of them.
7. Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
5 of 11
Record: 15-3 (5-0)
Biggest Hurdles Remaining: at Sam Houston State (Jan. 24), at Incarnate Word (Feb. 16)
Chance Undefeated: 9.1 percent
Last year, Stephen F. Austin lost two of its first five games before winning 29 in a row—including an upset of VCU in the NCAA tournament.
This year, the Lumberjacks lost three of their first four games but have reeled off 14 straight wins since then.
Their percent chance of running the table isn't quite as strong as some on the list, but that will all change if they beat Sam Houston State this weekend.
At 44 percent, it's the only game left on the schedule in which the Lumberjacks don't have at least a 69 percent chance of victory. Winning that game would more than double their chance of not losing again during the regular season.
It's tough to understand why they're even the underdogs in that game. Stephen F. Austin is among the best in the nation at forcing turnovers, and according to KenPom.com, Sam Houston State is already giving the ball away on 21 percent of its offensive possessions.
The Lumberjacks have won each of their last four games by at least 15 points and appear to really be hitting their stride. Thomas Walkup (19.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG) and Jacob Parker (13.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 56.2% 3PT) have been unstoppable thus far in conference play.
6. Virginia (ACC)
6 of 11
Record: 18-0 (6-0)
Biggest Hurdles Remaining: vs. Duke (Jan. 31), at North Carolina (Feb. 2), vs. Louisville (Feb. 7), at Louisville (March 7)
Chance Undefeated: 29.9 percent
Virginia is an outstanding team.
Much like Wisconsin, the Cavaliers play at a very slow but very efficient pace on both ends of the court. They don't force many turnovers, but they commit even fewer.
They move the ball well enough on offense to consistently get open looks, and they move around well enough on defense to prevent their opponents from getting open looks or offensive rebounds.
Virginia is fundamental basketball at its finest. It isn't sexy, but it's beautiful.
Still, it's kind of shocking to see the Cavaliers—a member of either the best or second-best conference in the country, depending on whom you ask—this high on the list.
Yes, Virginia has some nice road wins over Maryland, Notre Dame and VCU, but does that really equate to an 88 percent chance of winning a home game against Duke or a 66 percent chance of winning a road game against North Carolina?
Duke may have lost games to Miami and North Carolina State, but, really? We're expected to believe that Virginia would win eight out of nine home games against the Blue Devils?
The Cavaliers should be slightly favored against Duke and could absolutely win at North Carolina, but it certainly seems like the 49-point win over Harvard added a fair amount of inflation to the Pythagorean formulas that dictate KenPom.com's score projections.
5. Murray State (Ohio Valley)
7 of 11
Record: 16-4 (6-0)
Biggest Hurdles Remaining: vs. Eastern Kentucky (Jan. 29), at Tennessee-Martin (Feb. 28)
Chance Undefeated: 18.2 percent
Thursday night's game at Eastern Illinois was supposed to be the toughest game left on Murray State's schedule.
The Racers won by 15 to extend their winning streak to 14 games.
It's not just that they're winning, either. They're doing so with relative ease. How this team lost by 35 points to Valparaiso on a neutral court is one of the season's biggest mysteries, but it clearly knocked something loose for the Racers, who haven't lost since.
Cameron Payne and Jarvis Williams make up the most underrated inside-outside duo in the country.
Payne is averaging 19.1 points, 5.9 assists and 2.1 steals per game. Williams has been good for 16.4 points and 8.0 rebounds per night. They aren't alone in their efforts. Murray State also has Jeffrey Moss and T.J. Sapp scoring better than 10 points per game.
Should the Racers suffer a loss this season, it won't be because of their offense. It will be because a team scores more than 80 points against their terrible defense. That's what makes the game against Eastern Kentucky—the team that beat Miami 72-44 and attempts more than 26 three-pointers per game—their biggest hurdle.
Survive that one, and there might not be another team in this conference capable of keeping up with the Racers.
4. Texas Southern (SWAC)
8 of 11
Record: 8-10 (5-0)
Biggest Hurdles Remaining: at Jackson State (Feb. 16), at Alabama State (Feb. 28)
Chance Undefeated: 11.6 percent
How can a team that went 3-10 in nonconference play be considered one of the primary candidates to go undefeated in conference play?
For starters, Texas Southern scheduled very aggressively. Not only did the Tigers play 15 of their first 16 games on the road, but they did so against quality teams. They were blown out on quite a few occasions, but they played tough with Tennessee and Auburn and won games against Michigan State and Kansas State.
Secondly, Texas Southern plays in the worst conference in the country—and it's not even close.
Those wins against the Spartans and Wildcats are the only wins that this entire conference has against the RPI Top 250. It's almost unthinkable, but the SWAC is 2-84 against teams that aren't ranked in the bottom 100 in the country.
Texas Southern isn't exactly the nation's best team. Even if the Tigers go undefeated in conference play, they're likely headed for a first-round game in Dayton as one of the four lowest-seeded automatic bids.
But a team doesn't have to be great to win games in this conference. It doesn't even have to be average. As long as Mike Davis' guys physically show up for every game, they'll be in great shape to run the table.
3. Kentucky (SEC)
9 of 11
Record: 18-0 (5-0)
Biggest Hurdles Remaining: at South Carolina (Jan. 24), at Florida (Feb. 7), at LSU (Feb. 10), at Georgia (March 3)
Chance Undefeated: 35.0 percent
Mathematically speaking, Kentucky's odds of going undefeated get better with each win.
But now that the Wildcats have played two overtime games and a closer-than-anyone-was-expecting home game against Vanderbilt, many are starting to wonder just how mortal this team could be.
Just this week, B/R's Brian Pedersen asked whether a Kentucky loss might be inevitable, and Jason King argued that the SEC is stronger than most care to believe.
Gun to your head, though, you still think Kentucky will be undefeated at the start of the SEC tournament, right?
The Wildcats very well could be challenged by the likes of Georgia and LSU, but this is a team that already has convincing wins over Kansas, Louisville, North Carolina and Texas. If they put their minds to it, the Wildcats could beat every SEC team by at least 20 points.
They'll certainly be favored by a considerable margin in every remaining game they play.
It's just a question of whether they'll lose their focus long enough to lose a game.
2. Gonzaga (West Coast)
10 of 11
Record: 19-1 (8-0)
Biggest Hurdles Remaining: at Saint Mary's (Feb. 21), vs. BYU (Feb. 28)
Chance Undefeated: 48.4 percent
Gonzaga got a bit of a scare the other night from Pepperdine, but that'll happen when you miss 19 free throws in a road game.
Outside of that, these Bulldogs have been unstoppable since losing an overtime game at Arizona in early December.
Kyle Wiltjer is averaging 15.6 points per WCC game, and you get the feeling that there's even more untapped potential there. Kevin Pangos is scoring 15.1 points per conference game and has 41 assists against 10 turnovers.
Perhaps most impressive, though, has been the play of Przemek Karnowski and Domantas Sabonis down low. Through their first six games in January, the duo is putting up 22.2 points and 13.5 rebounds per game.
There are plenty of above-average, mid-major teams in this conference, but none of them are properly equipped to deal with a full-strength Gonzaga—hence the beating Saint Mary's took on Thursday night.
In order for the Bulldogs to lose again before the end of February, they would need to play quite poorly while getting one heck of a strong effort from an inferior opponent. Even BYU and Saint Mary's would need some help to topple this giant.
1. North Carolina Central (MEAC)
11 of 11
Record: 14-5 (6-0)
Biggest Hurdles Remaining: at North Carolina A&T (Feb. 7)
Chance Undefeated: 54.7 percent
It's been more than a full year since North Carolina Central lost a game in one of the worst conferences in the nation. The Eagles opened MEAC play in 2013-14 with a three-point loss at Florida A&M before winning 18 straight—most of them in blowout fashion.
Even without last year's outstanding backcourt of Jeremy Ingram and Emanuel Chapman leading the way on both offense and defense, it's been more of the same this year.
Scoring has been much more balanced, but the Eagles are winning games thanks to the evolution of senior Jordan Parks and the addition of transfers Nimrod Hilliard (Lamar) and Anthony McDonald (Mississippi Valley State).
They have already played their two toughest conference games of the season—winning by five points at Maryland-Eastern Shore and by four points at Norfolk State—and they don't even have a home rematch against either the second- or third-best team in the MEAC.
According to KenPom.com, NC Central has at least an 86 percent chance of winning each of its remaining conference games. Take away that road game against North Carolina A&T, and the Eagles have at least a 90 percent chance of winning each of their other nine games.
This shouldn't necessarily be interpreted as a suggestion that NC Central is a prime candidate to pull off an upset in March. This team would likely get destroyed by Kentucky, Virginia or Gonzaga. However, its remaining schedule is one that those teams would breeze through by an average margin of 50 points per game.
Thus, it would be more surprising to see the Eagles lose a game in the next eight weeks than to see probable No. 1 seeds lose one.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.
