Ranking the Nation's Top 20 Small Forwards for 2014-15 NCAA Basketball Season
The true small forward is hard to find in college basketball. Many coaches play a three-guard lineup, not necessarily out of preference but rather because there just aren't many guys in the 6'7" range who can guard on the perimeter, handle the ball and make outside shots.
So the pool of players to choose from at this position is smaller than the other spots, but the teams who do have a true small forward have a valuable asset.
This year's group has several breakout candidates—the man at No. 4 is my pick for breakout player of the year—and also includes three freshmen who could all end up as lottery picks.
Let's get to the list.
Just missed the cut: Le'Bryan Nash, Oklahoma State; J.J. O'Brien, San Diego State; Sam Thompson, Ohio State; J.P. Tokoto, North Carolina; Daniel Hamilton, Connecticut
This is the third installment in B/R's positional ranking series in the lead-up to the 2014-15 season. In case you missed it, here are the top 20 point guards and the top 20 shooting guards. Check back on Friday for the power forwards. The centers will come next Monday, and the series will culminate on November 12 with our ranking of the top 100 players in college basketball.
20. Wayne Blackshear, Louisville
1 of 20
Class: Senior
2013-14 Stats: 8.2 PPG, 3.1 RPG
There are two ways to judge Wayne Blackshear. If you throw out the expectations, he's been a solid role guy for the Cardinals the last two years. He's a good shooter and a good defender who can play multiple positions.
Now if you're judging Blackshear based on what the expectations were for him, he's been a bit of a disappointment and probably left Louisville's coaches and fans wanting more. Sometimes it takes a while for a guy to figure out what it takes to make a big impact—look at Casey Prather at Florida last season. That could be Blackshear this year. And even if he just slightly improves on what he's been, he'll be a quality role guy.
19. Jarrod Uthoff, Iowa
2 of 20
Class: Junior
2013-14 Stats: 7.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.1 BPG
Fran McCaffery has built one of the best offenses in the country, and Jarrod Uthoff was his best weapon off the bench last year. Uthoff should move into the starting lineup this season.
Uthoff would be a good fit in any offense because of the way he can shoot the ball. The Hawkeyes do a great job of getting shooters looks because of how quickly they push the ball. Uthoff was great in transition, setting up beyond the three-point line before the defense was set.
At 6'9" with a high release, he has no problem getting his shot off. In fact, he was even better when guarded. According to Synergy's numbers (subscription required), he hit 72.7 percent (eight of 11) of his guarded jumpers. That was the best mark in the country. Granted, it was a small sample size, but it's still impressive.
18. Dwayne Polee, San Diego State
3 of 20
Class: Senior
2013-14 Stats: 8.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG
Someone needs take over Xavier Thames' role as the go-to guy at San Diego State, and Dwayne Polee was looking like the best candidate late in the 2013-14 season. Polee averaged 15 points per game over the final five games, and he's more of a natural scorer than Winston Shepard, the leading returning scorer on the team.
Polee is the best shooter of all the returners, and he can also score off the bounce. Steve Fisher didn't seem to trust him with a lot of minutes until late in the season, but he showed what he could do when given the opportunity. It's obvious the Aztecs will be athletic and great defensively, especially on the wing with Shepard (6'8"), Polee (6'7"), J.J. O'Brien (6'7") and freshman Malik Pope (6'8"); the question is which one of those guys will emerge as the star on the offensive end.
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17. Anthony Brown, Stanford
4 of 20
Class: Senior
2013-14 Stats: 12.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.1 APG
Anthony Brown is what has become a valuable commodity in the NBA: a three-and-D wing.
Brown shot 45.3 percent from deep last season and was a great fit in Stanford's triangle offense as a spot-up shooter. He could become more of a focal point of the offense with Dwight Powell gone. Brown was also good putting the ball on the floor and getting to the free-throw line when he'd get run off the three-point line. He's one of those guys who knows his role and doesn't try to do too much.
16. Winston Shepard, San Diego State
5 of 20
Class: Junior
2013-14 Stats: 11.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.1 APG
While Dwayne Polee may have more upside as a scorer, Winston Shepard is more proven and the leading returning scorer for the Aztecs. Shepard's shooting numbers weren't great last year, but he is a great athlete and Steve Fisher has done a good job with skill development in his program.
Getting the offense on track could be an issue for the Aztecs. The defense, on the other hand, should once again be one of the best in the country, and Shepard is a big reason why. He can guard multiple positions, and he's quick and lengthy.
15. Anthony Drmic, Boise State
6 of 20
Class: Senior
2013-14 Stats: 15.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.1 SPG
Boise State and Anthony Drmic both took a step back last season. Drmic averaged nearly two points less per game, he shot 34.1 percent from deep compared to 39.2 percent as a sophomore, and the Broncos went .500 in the Mountain West after making the NCAA tournament in 2013.
Drmic was also slightly less aggressive and didn't get to the line as often, but mostly his production was similar other than the outside shooting. He's too good of a shooter to shoot that poorly from distance, and it'd be a good bet that he'll be more like his sophomore self this season.
The Broncos only lose one contributor (Ryan Watkins), so they'd be a good sleeper pick to start the season as the most important pieces from two seasons ago are still around.
14. Justise Winslow, Duke
7 of 20
Class: Freshman
2013-14 Stats (High school): 27.5 PPG, 13.6 RPG 3.5 APG, 2.1 BPG, 1.8 SPG
I was at the under-18 FIBA America's championships this summer and developed a great appreciation for Justise Winslow. He may not put up big numbers this season, but he'll be an important piece for Duke.
That's because Mike Krzyzewski will be able to trust Winslow, who plays beyond his years. He doesn't make mistakes, takes good shots and plays with great effort. He didn't get the MVP in Colorado Springs this summer—Stanley Johnson did—but Winslow was the best and most consistent player on an extremely talented roster.
Like he did for the Americans, he'll be able to play multiple positions for Duke—look for him in some small-ball lineups at the 4. The one question mark with his game is his outside shot, and that appears to be improving.
13. Justin Jackson, North Carolina
8 of 20
Class: Freshman
2013-14 Stats (High school): 31.5 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.9 BPG
Roy Williams signed a great class, and Justin Jackson figures to be the most important piece. The Tar Heels were in desperate need of a shooter, and Jackson will be able to come in and fill that role right away.
Jackson has one of the best mid-range jumpers in the country. He doesn't shoot as much from beyond the arc but has the stroke to be a consistent three-point shooter. He made 40.5 percent of his threes in the summer of 2013 in Nike's Elite Youth Basketball League (EYBL). At 6'8" with the ability to put the ball on the floor, Jackson is a tough matchup on the wing and should thrive in UNC's uptempo attack.
12. Dustin Hogue, Iowa State
9 of 20
Class: Senior
2013-14 Stats: 11.6 PPG, 8.4 RPG
Fred Hoiberg knows how to take advantage of mismatches, and the 6'6" wing who can post up is a rarity in college basketball. That's Dustin Hogue. Hogue was successful in just about any situation Hoiberg put him in.
He led Iowa State with an effective field-goal percentage of 61.5 percent, which is quite the feat considering the number of shooters Hoiberg puts on the floor. It'll be interesting to see how Hogue performs if he's one of Iowa State's featured scorers instead of just a complementary piece.
You would think his role offensively would increase considering the finish he had last season. He averaged 17.7 points over ISU's final six games and dropped 34 points in the Sweet 16 loss to UConn.
11. LaDontae Henton, Providence
10 of 20
Class: Senior
2013-14 Stats: 14.0 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.3 SPG
The opportunity to put up huge numbers is there for LaDontae Henton this season now that Bryce Cotton and his 21.8 points and 15.7 attempts per game are gone.
Henton has been a consistent secondary scorer for the Friars throughout his career, averaging better than 13 points in each of his three seasons. Last season, he scored in double figures in 30 of Providence's 35 games and averaged an impressive 18 points over the final six games.
Henton is a good shooter with a pro body at 6'6", 215 pounds. He complemented Cotton well. Now we'll get to see what he can do when he's the man.
10. Roosevelt Jones, Butler
11 of 20
Class: Junior
2012-13 season: 10.1 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.5 APG
Roosevelt Jones is about as unorthodox as they come in college basketball. His shot is so ugly that he rarely ever shoots it outside the paint. He had one attempt outside 17 feet his sophomore season, according to Synergy, and that attempt was at the shot-clock buzzer. But even without the threat of a jumper, Jones finds a way to score and is still really hard to guard.
Jones makes up for his lack of jumper by finishing really well around the rim. He's also a really good ball-handler and passer, and he's a good defender who can guard multiple positions.
A wrist injury kept Jones out last season, and the Bulldogs struggled without their best playmaker, going 14-17 and winning only four games in the Big East. Don't be fooled into thinking that it was Brad Stevens leaving that led to the program's first losing season since 2005; Jones' injury played a much bigger role in Butler's struggles.
9. Denzel Valentine, Michigan State
12 of 20
Class: Junior
2013-14 Stats: 8.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 3.8 APG
In most years, there would be concern for Michigan State with a point guard like Travis Trice, who is more of a three-point specialist than a playmaker—Trice averaged only 2.3 assists per game last season in 22.3 minutes per game. But need not worry, Michigan State fans, because you have one of the best playmaking forwards in the country in Denzel Valentine.
Valentine is a point forward who has great vision and feel for the game. Last year, Valentine was also a solid spot-up shooter, knocking down 37.7 percent of his threes for the Spartans. Valentine may need to take on some more scoring this year now that the Spartans are without Adreian Payne, Keith Appling and Gary Harris. The one area where he needs to improve is finishing inside the arc and at the rim—he made only 43 percent of his twos last year.
At the very least, he'll make the game easier for his teammates, who are mostly unproven as scorers.
8. Kelly Oubre, Kansas
13 of 20
Class: Freshman
2013-14 Stats (High school): 22.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.4 APG, 2.1 SPG
Kelly Oubre has the chance to be a really complete player if he's able to shoot consistently from the perimeter. Oubre is more of a streaky shooter now, but even if that's the case this year, he does plenty of things really well to make a mark at Kansas as a freshman.
Oubre is great finishing around the basket, and he's a sneaky offensive rebounder. He has the potential to be a great defender who can get a ton of deflections—his wingspan measured 7'2" at the Nike Hoops Summit, according to DraftExpress.com. He also has the potential to be a good slasher. He's a lefty, which makes him tough to defend, and he handles the ball well for his size.
7. Dez Wells, Maryland
14 of 20
Class: Senior
2013-14 Stats: 14.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.1 SPG
Maryland played at a quicker tempo last season than the typical Mark Turgeon team, and that was conducive to the strengths of Dez Wells' game.
Wells is really good in the open floor. Get him in space, and he usually finds his way into the paint. The Terps will do whatever they can to get him there too. He scored 32 points last season on 27 post-up opportunities, per Synergy. Outside the arc, he's not great (33.7 percent for his career), but inside the arc he's one of the better scorers at his position in college basketball.
6. Alex Poythress, Kentucky
15 of 20
Class: Junior
2013-14 Stats: 5.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG
The wait for Alex Poythress to be a star eventually started to turn into the realization last season that Poythress was never going to be more than a really athletic role guy. Then Poythress started to change that thinking this summer when Kentucky went to the Bahamas.
Poythress was often the best player on the floor, averaging 11.8 points on 75 percent shooting and 5.7 rebounds in 18.8 minutes per game over six games. Those numbers actually have some merit, because unlike most summer trips, Kentucky actually played legit competition in the Bahamas.
It appears that Poythress has figured out how to maximize his ability. He's not a great shooter, but he's a great finisher at the rim, and he did a good job putting himself in those spots this summer. He did get the luxury of playing the 4 spot in the Bahamas. Kentucky has more of a need for Poythress to play the 3 this year, and it'll be interesting to see if he can be as effective there.
5. Treveon Graham, VCU
16 of 20
Class: Senior
2013-14 Stats: 15.8 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.0 APG
When VCU cannot get an easy bucket off its press and has to play in the half court, Treveon Graham becomes the man.
Graham is one of the rare Rams who isn't great in the steals department, but he makes up for it with his scoring and rebounding from the wing spot. The 6'6" small forward has been VCU's most consistent scorer the last two years. Last season, he scored in double figures in 32 of 35 games.
Graham is a decent shooter, but he's most dangerous around the basket. The Rams even post him up on occasion to get him touches in the paint. Any teams without a wing player who has size, quickness and strength—those are few and far between—will have a hard time matching up with Graham.
4. Zak Irvin, Michigan
17 of 20
Class: Sophomore
2013-14 Stats: 6.7 PPG, 1.3 RPG
If Michigan's summer trip to Italy was any indication, Zak Irvin will be one of the top breakout players in college basketball this season. On the trip, Irvin averaged 20.8 points and 7.3 rebounds per game, and those weren't his most impressive numbers. His shooting percentages were. He shot 66.7 percent from deep and had an effective field-goal percentage of 81.3 percent.
It's not just the trip that should get Michigan fans excited. Irvin showed the potential last year as a deadly long-ball shooter and great fit in John Beilein's offense. He made a very impressive 42.5 percent of his threes. That kind of long-ball accuracy will be an incredible weapon in Beilein's offense, which delivers plenty of good looks from outside.
Last year, Irvin split time between the 3 and 4 spots, playing a role similar to that of Glenn Robinson III. The expectation this season is that Caris LeVert will slide into Michigan's go-to role, but don't be shocked if Irvin challenges him for that spot. Even if he's just the sidekick to LeVert, he'll be able to put up impressive numbers for the Wolverines, who have led the country in adjusted offensive efficiency the last two years, per kenpom.com.
3. Tyler Haws, Brigham Young
18 of 20
Class: Senior
2013-14 Stats: 23.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.0 SPG
Tyler Haws is a really crafty scorer who can fill it up quickly in BYU's fast-paced offense. Haws scored 25 or more points 12 times last season.
It's rare in college basketball to see a scorer like Haws make it to his senior season. His career at BYU started in 2009, which is when the current freshman class was in the eighth grade. Haws can knock down the three (40.4 percent), but he does most of his work with a smooth mid-range jumper. He also gets to the line often. His 223 made free throws ranked fifth in the nation last season.
2. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Arizona
19 of 20
Class: Sophomore
2013-14 Stats: 9.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.1 BPG
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is probably best suited in college basketball as a 4 man. That's where he spent a lot of time last year and thrived in that role as a rebounder and finisher at the rim.
But with the return of Brandon Ashley, Hollis-Jefferson will be seeing more time at small forward, and Sean Miller made it work last year when he had three beasts up front with Aaron Gordon, Ashley and Kaleb Tarczewski. Much like Gordon, Hollis-Jefferson is great around the basket, but his jumper leaves much to be desired. He made only 20.8 percent of jump shots as a freshman, according to Synergy's numbers.
Even if he's not able to knock down shots, Hollis-Jefferson is so good at slashing to the rim that he can still be a really effective scorer, and fortunately, his jump shot woes don't carry over to the free-throw line. During the NCAA tournament, he averaged 14 points per game on 18-of-27 shooting and made 20 of 23 free throws. Those sorts of numbers can be expected this year as he takes on a more prominent role with Gordon and Nick Johnson off to the NBA.
1. Terran Petteway, Nebraska
20 of 20
Class: Junior
2013-14 Stats: 18.1 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.6 APG
Nebraska might have its best team in the history of the program this season, and Terran Petteway is a legit candidate for Big Ten Player of the Year.
Tim Miles has brought a toughness to the program, and the Cornhuskers thrived last year because of their defense. Petteway, at 6'6", is a really good defender on the wing. He carried the offense for stretches—he had 12 game with 20 or more points—and he led the Big Ten in scoring. He's extremely tough to stop when he gets going because he can make difficult shots off the dribble.
For the Cornhuskers to compete for a Big Ten title, which is within reason, they'll need to provide Petteway with more help offensively. If his numbers end up going down a tick, that could be a good thing.
C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.
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