Ranking College Basketball Conferences by Projected 2015 NCAA Tournament Bids

Based on projected bids for the 2015 NCAA tournament, the Big 12 enters the 2014-15 college basketball season as the best conference in the nation.

Quantifying a qualitative statistic like "best" conference is hardly an exact science, but we gave it a shot anyway.

Simply ranking the strength of conferences by the number of teams projected for the tournament doesn't make sense. For starters, not all conferences are created equal—the ACC has 15 teams while the Big East and Big 12 have only 10. Also, not all projected bids are created equal—title contenders like Kentucky and Arizona shouldn't count the same as borderline teams like Cincinnati and Seton Hall.

Taking those things into consideration, a formula was created.

We see a total of 10 conferences potentially sending multiple teams to the 2015 NCAA tournament—sorry, WCC fans—and we ranked those 10 conferences based on the following formula.

Locks for the tournament count as 100 points each. Teams with a better than 50 percent chance but less than 100 percent chance of dancing are worth 75 points each. Bubble teams count for 50 points while long shots are given 25 points apiece. Each conference's total was summed up then divided by the number of teams in the conference, rating each conference on a scale from 0-100.

Which teams fall into which categories and the resultant scores are listed on each of the following slides.

Statistics are courtesy of Sports-Reference.com and KenPom.com (subscription required).

10. Atlantic 10

John Minchillo/Associated Press

Locks: Virginia Commonwealth

Should Dance: Dayton

Might Dance: N/A

Outside Shot: Richmond

Score: 14.3

The A-10 has been steadily trending upward for the past decade, culminating in an incredible six tournament berths this past season. The conference was represented by at least one team in every single AP poll in 2013-14 and had a team advance to the Elite Eight (Dayton) for the first time since Xavier did so in 2008.

Keep living in the past, though, because 2014-15 isn't looking too promising for the A-10 as a whole.

VCU will be great and will have plenty of early opportunities to prove its greatness with nonconference games against Villanova, Virginia, Northern Iowa, Tennessee, Toledo, Cincinnati and either Michigan or Oregon in the Legends Classic. Depending on how the Rams emerge from that gauntlet, they could spend the entire season ranked in the Top 15.

Beyond them, however, the A-10 is a plethora of teams that lost a ton of crucial players.

Saint Louis tops that list, as the Billikens will be without 75.4 percent of their scoring from last season. Of the others in the conference that went dancing last March, Saint Joseph's loses 61.2 percent of its scoring, Massachusetts loses 46.0 percent and 45.6 percent of George Washington's points are gone.

And with VCU and Rhode Island serving as the only schools in the conference adding so much as a 4-star recruit this year, those teams aren't exactly reloading with first-class talent.

Dayton is still in pretty good shape, though, and should be able to find its way back to the tournament. Richmond loses one of the best players in the conference in Cedrick Lindsay, but the rest of last year's 19-14 roster is pretty well intact. The Spiders have at least a snowball's chance of being the third A-10 team in the 2015 tournament.

9. Missouri Valley

Stephen Haas/Associated Press

Locks: Wichita State

Should Dance: N/A

Might Dance: Northern Iowa

Outside Shot: N/A

Score: 15.0

Where the A-10 has steadily improved for 10 years and is likely to face a bit of a down year in 2014-15, the Missouri Valley Conference has been declining for the past decade but could experience a miniature resurgence this year.

In the mid-2000s, MVC was easily the best nonmajor conference. It consistently had at least four or five teams in the KenPom top 100. At the end of the 2006-07 season, eight of the 10 Valley schools were in the KenPom top 90.

Last season, however, Wichita State was the only team to finish in the top 90. Northern Iowa (94) was close and Indiana State (108) wasn't too far removed from the club, but it was largely a collection of average-to-below-average teams.

We certainly aren't too optimistic about the Valley returning to its glory days in the immediate future, but it might send a second team to the Dance this year.

Wichita State is a stone-cold lock. The Shockers won't be a No. 1 seed again, but a combination of Fred VanVleet, Ron Baker and Tekele Cotton is more than enough to finish the season with 25 wins.

As far as the rest of the conference goes, Indiana State loses a ton of seniors and Illinois State lost an awful lot of transfers, leaving Northern Iowa as the clear favorite to be Wichita State's runner-up. Whether it's enough to get the Panthers into the NCAA tournament remains to be seen, but they return all six of their leading scorers from last year's above-.500 squad.

8. Mountain West

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Locks: San Diego State

Should Dance: Colorado State

Might Dance: UNLV

Outside Shot: New Mexico, Boise State

Score: 25.0

Let's start at the bottom of the list, just in case you're wondering why a team that has averaged 28.0 wins over the last three seasons has only an outside shot at making the tournament.

New Mexico was absolutely ravaged by departures. Cameron Bairstow and Kendall Williams led the team in scoring as seniors. Alex Kirk was the third-leading scorer and best rebounder and shot-blocker for the Lobos, but he declared for the NBA draft. Cleveland Thomas and Nick Banyard were the seventh and eighth players in the rotation, but they transferred to Hartford and Illinois State, respectively.

Sum it all up and the Lobos are trying to replace 73.1 percent of their scoring from last year. We wish them the best of luck with that.

Meanwhile, UNLV suffered 13 losses last season and has even more roster turnover than New Mexico—78.5 percent of last year's scoring. However, the Rebels have a better chance of making the tournament because their 2014 recruiting class (headlined by Rashad Vaughn) ranks fifth in the nation while New Mexico's is ranked 55th. The Rebels may have more to replace, but they also have the necessary pieces for the job.

Slotted ahead of both of those tournament regulars, though, is a 2013-14 afterthought in the form of Colorado State. The Rams went 16-16 last season but retain their top four scorers while adding two promising transfers in Dantiel Daniels and Stanton Kidd.

Then, of course, we have San Diego State.

The Aztecs won't be quite as good as last year after losing Xavier Thames and Josh Davis, but they're hanging onto a lot of great pieces from that 31-5 team and adding some high-caliber (albeit currently injured) freshmen. They'll be a borderline Top 25 team to open the season and should win the MWC for the fourth time in the past five seasons.

7. SEC

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Locks: Kentucky, Florida

Should Dance: Arkansas

Might Dance: Ole Miss

Outside Shot: Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, Texas A&M

Score: 33.9

The SEC has two of the six or seven teams most likely to win the 2015 national championship but only ranks seventh on this list because the rest of the conference is a bunch of question marks.

From 1997-2008, the SEC had a stretch of 12 straight years sending at least five teams to the NCAA tournament. And that was back when the conference only had 12 teams.

Over the past two seasons with 14 teams, only three SEC teams have made the tournament—and it was pretty lucky to even send that many teams. Ole Miss sneaked in as a No. 12 seed in 2013 after winning the SEC tournament, and Tennessee was one of the last four teams invited this past March.

Florida and Kentucky will make it without a doubt, but can Arkansas finally win enough games away from home to earn a bid? Can Ole Miss effortlessly work four transfers into its regular rotation while adjusting to life without Marshall Henderson? Will Bruce Pearl immediately turn things around at Auburn? Can Donnie Tyndall keep Tennessee from crashing and burning?

It's almost inevitable that three SEC teams will make the tournament while three others hover around the bubble. That hardly screams best conference in the country.

6. American Athletic

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Locks: Connecticut

Should Dance: Memphis, Southern Methodist

Might Dance: Cincinnati, Tulsa

Outside Shot: Temple

Score: 34.1

Just barely edging out the SEC (by 0.2 points) is a conference that has arguably the best team over the past two decades and not a whole lot else.

Reigning national champions haven't exactly had it easy over the past few years. Florida missed the tournament in both 2008 and 2009 after winning it all in 2006 and 2007. North Carolina won it all in 2009 before suffering 17 losses the following season. And then Kentucky won the 2012 title and opened the 2012-13 season ranked No. 1 in the nation before infamously losing in the first round of the NIT to Robert Morris.

However, we're not worried about that happening here. The Huskies lost great players in Shabazz Napier, DeAndre Daniels and Niels Giffey, but they still have more than enough talent to win this conference.

SMU would've been the most likely team to challenge them for the title if Emmanuel Mudiay hadn't run off to China to play professionally, but the Mustangs will still battle with Memphis for second place in the conference.

All five of Tulsa's leading scorers from last year were sophomores, so the Golden Hurricane should have plenty of strength to finish in the top half of their new conference.

Cincinnati is the biggest wild card. The Bearcats had a phenomenal 2013-14 season but will be without their three leading scorers from that team. They also lost their top 2013 recruit with Jermaine Lawrence electing to transfer to Manhattan. This could be Mick Cronin's most difficult season to date.

4. (tie) Pac-12

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Locks: Arizona, UCLA, Utah

Should Dance: Colorado

Might Dance: Stanford

Outside Shot: Oregon, California, Washington

Score: 41.7

That's right. I've got Utah as one of my 23 locks (21 on this list plus Gonzaga and Harvard) to make the 2015 NCAA tournament.

Deal with it.

The Utes were a much better team last season than their record and RPI indicated, and they return all six of their leading scorers while adding a 4-star power forward in Brekkott Chapman. If you don't yet know the names Delon Wright and Jordan Loveridge, you will soon.

Less controversial is the inclusion of Arizona as a lock. The Wildcats will be one of the two or three best teams in the country for a second straight season.

UCLA lost a ton of last year's talent, but the Bruins have a darn fine recruiting class—especially if you include Isaac Hamilton, their 5-star 2013 recruit who was ineligible to play last year. They'll have no problem making the tournament.

Colorado could legitimately win this conference, and we doubt Stanford reinvested in Johnny Dawkins just to be led back to the NIT. Replacing Dwight Powell and Josh Huestis won't be easy for the Cardinal, but a backcourt of Chasson Randle and Anthony Brown at least makes it possible.

Of the teams with an outside shot of making the tournament, Oregon is by far the most intriguing, as Dana Altman is basically rebuilding from scratch. The Ducks still have Joseph Young and Elgin Cook, but they lost every other player who scored at least 35 points last season. Worse yet, their top 2014 recruit has yet to enroll and has been (at least temporarily) removed from the roster.

4. (tie) ACC

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Locks: Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, Virginia

Should Dance: Syracuse

Might Dance: North Carolina State

Outside Shot: Florida State, Miami, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh

Score: 41.7

Let's just go ahead and gloss right over those locks. If you disagree with any of those four teams making the tournament, sounds like you have mental problems, man.

If there's anything wrong with those locks, it's not that we included too many teams. Deciding whether Syracuse belongs as a lock or a "should dance" was one of the toughest calls to make. The Orange lost three of the four leading scorers from a team that was constantly accused of not having enough offense, and DaJuan Coleman's status for the season is still up in the air.

However, college basketball strength often has more to do with the head coach than the players, and Jim Boeheim has had Syracuse ranked in the AP Top 25 at some point in each of the past 32 seasons. The Orange may not lock up their bid until late in the season, but it's very unlikely that they fail to make the tournament.

Outside of those top five teams, though, the ACC is a bit of a crapshoot. NC State would seem to have the best shot out of that middle tier of teams, but the ranking of Nos. 6-10 in the ACC is about as indiscernible as Nos. 4-10 in the SEC.

Looking back at the 2011-12 Big East season could be a good indicator of what to expect this year in the ACC. That 16-team behemoth opened the season with four teams ranked in the AP Top 10 before sending nine teams to the NCAA tournament—three of which entered the tournament with 13 losses.

It's unlikely that the ACC gets nine teams, but eight of 15 is a very real possibility. We'll just need the next five months to figure out who the last three teams will be.

3. Big East

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Locks: Villanova

Should Dance: Georgetown, Xavier

Might Dance: Seton Hall, St. John's

Outside Shot: Butler, Creighton, Providence

Score: 42.5

Even more than the A-10 down in 10th place, seeing the Big East in third place on this list surprised me the most.

Granted, the Big East is less than one point ahead of both the ACC and Pac-12, and no one would have much issue with it being in fifth place. Still, it's a testament to how much of a bounce-back year this conference should have after comfortably sending only two teams to last year's tournament.

Villanova is a surefire tourney team, and Georgetown wasn't far from making the cut as a lock. The Hoyas lost a pretty big piece of last year's puzzle with the graduation of Markel Starks, but they will be better than last year thanks in large part to the addition of four 4-star recruits—most notably among them, Isaac Copeland.

Xavier also adds a quartet of 4-star players and should have enough strength to reach the tournament for the 13th time in the last 15 seasons.

Seton Hall and St. John's each have just one tournament berth in the past decade, but neither has been all that far from going dancing in recent seasons.

Were it not for a two-point loss to DePaul in mid-January, St. John's almost certainly would have had the computer profile to make the tournament last year. And that was without Rysheed Jordan even remotely reaching his full potential as a freshman.

The Pirates of Seton Hall weren't quite that close last season, but they should be much improved after adding Isaiah Whitehead and Angel Delgado.

Though there are three teams listed as having an outside shot, we're not naive enough to think the Big East could actually send eight teams to the tournament. However, if you could get 3-1 odds on each of Butler, Creighton and Providence to make the tournament, you'd be silly not to bet on all three with the expectation of hitting one.

2. Big Ten

AJ Mast/Associated Press

Locks: Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State

Should Dance: Nebraska, Minnesota

Might Dance: Illinois

Outside Shot: Indiana, Iowa

Score: 46.4

Most conferences would be happy with being ranked as the second-best in the nation, but Big Ten fans won't be pleased with this one.

And, honestly, I'm being generous in even ranking the Big Ten this high.

Wisconsin is the only stone-cold lock of the bunch. The Badgers will likely contend for the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament.

Those other three "locks" will probably open the season ranked somewhere in the vicinity of Nos. 18-23 in the AP Top 25, expected to perform well because of coaching track records that are regarded as more important than the fact that they each lost three players who averaged 9.5 PPG or better last year.

I'm not fully convinced that any of those three teams are actually locks, but I don't even want to know the wrath that would come from putting all three of them in the "Should Dance" category and dropping the Big Ten to fifth place.

But the line had to be drawn at Nebraska.

The Cornhuskers went 3-8 against teams in the KenPom top 40 last year. One of those three wins was a six-point home win over Ohio State at the tail end of the roughest stretch of the Buckeyes' season. Another was a nine-point road win over Michigan State playing without Branden Dawson and effectively playing without Keith Appling in his first game back after missing three games due to injury. And the last was a nine-point win in an emotional home finale before which the entire world told the Huskers that a win would get them into the tournament.

Even if you won't discount those three wins because of the circumstances, let's discount them because they lost another five games to teams outside the top 40. They should make the tournament, but they did nothing to indicate that they're a lock.

Until beating SMU in the NIT championship game, Minnesota had an identical 3-8 record vs. the KenPom top 40 with five losses to other, less impressive teams. It only makes sense to put the Golden Gophers in the same group with the Cornhuskers, despite ending up being the best team to miss the NCAA tournament.

The final Big Ten team with a better-than-average chance of making the tournament is Illinois, as the Illini will have one of the deepest rotations of talented guards in the nation.

1. Big 12

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Locks: Kansas, Texas, Iowa State

Should Dance: Kansas State, Oklahoma

Might Dance: Baylor

Outside Shot: Oklahoma State

Score: 52.5

For a second straight season, the Big 12 is the conference to beat.

Seven of the 10 Big 12 teams made the tournament last year, and those same seven teams have at least a reasonable expectation of getting there again.

Kansas, Texas and Iowa State could all open the season ranked in the AP Top 10 without any argument from us. Because they have won umpteen Big 12 titles in a row, the Jayhawks are regarded as the favorites in this conference, but the Longhorns and Cyclones are very legitimate candidates to be the best team in the Big 12.

Kansas State and Oklahoma are a tier below those top three teams, but it's hardly a precipitous drop. All five of them should receive single-digit seeds in the tournament.

After that, though, is the steep drop.

As I wrote yesterday, Baylor is very much a borderline tournament team. The Bears lost a ton from last year's team, and they aren't adding much of anything in the way of freshmen. If JUCO transfers Lester Medford and Deng Deng don't pan out, they could be battling TCU and Texas Tech for last place in the Big 12.

Yet, Oklahoma State is even more of a wild card than Baylor. The Cowboys lost pretty much everyone from last season except for Phil Forte and Le'Bryan Nash, but a strong recruiting class and the addition of Anthony Hickey from LSU could keep them competitive enough to be the Big 12's seventh tournament representative.

The Big 12 might not send quite as many teams as a couple of other conferences, but if two out of three ain't bad, seven out of 10 isn't either.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.