No. 1 Michigan (16-1, RPI: 5) vs. No. 16 George Mason (Colonial auto bid)
No. 8 San Diego State (13-4, RPI: 31) vs. No. 9 Temple (13-5, RPI: 50)
It was nice to see the Aztecs win comfortably on the road against Nevada, but it's this weekend's tilt with New Mexico that should help define the arc of each team's season. Temple almost lost at home to Penn on Wednesday, which might have been grounds for removing it from the field entirely.
Also carrying weight are the losses to Canisius and St. Bonaventure, which will loom large if the Owls don't win at least three out of their five remaining games against the cream of the A-10 crop.
No. 4 Wichita State (18-2, RPI: 14) vs. No. 13 Stephen F. Austin (Southland auto bid)
The Shockers struggle on the road (though they somehow won at VCU back in November), so I presume they'll lose upwards of three more regular-season games, which could cause them to drop a seed or two.
No. 5 Marquette (13-4, RPI: 20) vs. No. 12 Oklahoma State (12-5, RPI: 47) / La Salle (13-5, RPI: 40)
I don't feel great about any of the No. 5 seeds, but Marquette is especially bothersome. Its best win of the season is over a team that's ineligible for the tournament, and that isn't going to change unless it picks up a win over Louisville or Syracuse.
No. 6 Cincinnati (16-4, RPI: 21) vs. No. 11 Wyoming (15-2, RPI: 35)
I'm as surprised as anyone that Cincinnati is this high, but its body of work and remaining schedule suggest that might climb even higher.
Wyoming is "safely" in the field for now, but it won't take much for it to drop out. When all is said and done, I think it's going to be very difficult for the Mountain West to send more than four teams.
No. 3 Oregon (17-2, RPI: 23) vs. No. 14 Davidson (Southern auto bid)
Oregon doesn't play another game this season against Arizona, Arizona State or UCLA. It's going to win the conference and might go 18-0 in the process. If there's one team currently lower than a No. 2 seed that could make a run to the top line, you're looking at it.
No. 7 Iowa State (13-5, RPI: 39) vs. No. 10 Illinois (14-5, RPI: 28)
The loss to Texas Tech on Wednesday wasn't a great idea, but I still think Iowa State is the second-best team in the Big 12, and it will have plenty of opportunities to prove me right or wrong in the next five games.
Illinois relies too heavily on the three in too good of a conference to finish the season as anything better than a 10-loss team, but it will still get in.
No. 2 Miami (14-3, RPI: 4) vs. No. 15 Harvard (Ivy auto bid)
I promise this isn't an overreaction to one game; I had the Hurricanes as a No. 3 seed before they beat Duke. That RPI is just too good to overlook, and it certainly looks like they're going to win the ACC.