Predicting the 1st Loss for the Top 10 Teams in the AP Poll
Three weeks into the college basketball season there have been very few upsets amongst the Top 10 teams in the AP poll.
The only true upset of a team in the AP Preseason Top 10 was NC State's loss to Oklahoma State at the Puerto Rico Tip-Off on Sunday.
The other two teams in the Top 10 to lose this season are Kentucky and Kansas, who lost to perennial powers Duke and Michigan State, respectively.
Here is the list of the predicted first loss for the rest of the Top 10 that remain unbeaten.
Predicted First Loss: December 15 vs. No. 7 Florida
Arizona coach Sean Miller has put together a strong nonconference schedule in December to bolster the Wildcats' resume when March comes around.
The schedule includes visits to Texas Tech and Clemson, which are two games that will not be easy, especially in a road environment.
The biggest name on the schedule in December is seventh ranked Florida, who come to Tucson on December 15.
The Gators are an established program and are used to playing big games on the road and should have the advantage when they visit the McKale Center as well.
9. North Carolina
Predicted First Loss: January 12 at Florida State
North Carolina should not face a challenge during this week's Maui Invitational with Texas being the only true threat to the Tar Heels.
The Tar Heels also have two difficult road trips before ACC play begins as they visit Indiana on November 27 and face a possible rematch from Maui in Austin against Texas on December 19.
Look for the Heels to win both of those road tests but then trip up in a trap game at Florida State.
After an opening loss to South Alabama at home, the Seminoles quietly won the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic this weekend with wins over BYU and St. Joseph's.
Tallahassee is always a tough place to come out of with a win in ACC play, and the Seminoles will prove that theory right once again on January 12 with an upset of North Carolina.
Predicted Second Loss: December 29 at Louisville
Kentucky has already lost its first game of the season, falling to Duke last week at the Champions Classic.
Instead of excluding UK from this list, its second loss of the season is predicted here to be at rival Louisville at the end of December.
The youth of the Wildcats showed against Duke, and although they should get past Notre Dame and Baylor in the next few weeks, they will fall short against Louisville.
The Cardinals are a battle-tested, experienced team that has one mission this season—win a national title at all costs—and beating Kentucky will be another step to achieving that goal.
Predicted First Loss: January 19 vs. Missouri
Florida has already taken down one ranked opponent in Wisconsin this season and should get past Arizona when the Gators visit Tucson in December, but they should be on upset alert in their first big SEC game on January 19.
Missouri will visit the O'Connell Center on that date, and it will also be the first big SEC test for the visiting Tigers.
Missouri will be looking to prove that it belongs in the SEC basketball hierarchy with Florida and Kentucky, and going into Gainesville and upsetting the Gators would be a perfect way to do just that.
The game will also present a matchup of two of the best guards in the country, Kenny Boynton of Florida and Phil Pressey of Missouri.
Predicted First Loss: January 19 at Louisville
January 19 will be a big date on the college basketball schedule with Syracuse visiting Louisville to go along with Florida and Missouri's battle in Gainesville.
The Orange may have the weakest nonconference schedule in the AP Top 10 with San Diego State being their biggest challenge, and they beat the Aztecs in the opener in San Diego.
The only road games that Jim Boeheim and company will face before visiting the KFC Yum! Center will be at Arkansas, South Florida and Providence, but all three should be easy victories for the Orange.
The trip to Louisville be an eye-opener for the Orange, and it will be a judgment of just how good they are on the national level.
Predicted First Loss: November 24 vs. Louisville
Duke already conquered one of the two Kentucky state powerhouses last week with a 75-68 win over Kentucky in the Champions Classic.
This weekend, the Blue Devils will play in the Battle 4 Atlantis, and they are on a crash course to face Louisville in the final on Saturday.
The crowd in the Bahamas will be treated to a great game if both teams make it to the final, but Louisville is the stronger team at the moment.
Duke does have to get past Minnesota and the winner of the Missouri vs. Stanford game to face Louisville in the final in the Bahamas.
Predicted First Loss: January 13 at Ohio State
Not only is Michigan predicted to lose to Ohio State in football this weekend, it is predicted to fall for the first time in basketball to the Buckeyes as well.
Michigan is playing in the semifinals of the Preseason NIT against Pitt on Wednesday and should win that game, plus the final against either Kansas State or Delaware.
After this weekend, the biggest test for the Wolverines before their trip to Columbus in January will be against NC State at home.
The Wolverines should have no problem with the rest of their nonconference schedule, but their bid to go unbeaten this season will end in Columbus at the hands of their hated rivals.
3. Ohio State
Predicted First Loss: November 28 at Duke
Ohio State will not be undefeated going into that game with Michigan, as it will have a loss on its record after visiting Durham next week to play Duke.
Not many teams can go into Cameron Indoor Stadium and win against Duke, and the Blue Devils will be hungry for a big win after a long weekend in the Bahamas.
The Buckeyes will have a chance to get back on the national radar after their loss to Duke when they play Kansas at home on December 22, which will be a good tuneup before Big 10 play begins.
Predicted First Loss: December 15 at Memphis
Assuming both Louisville and Memphis win their opening game in the Bahamas on Thursday, the December 15 game at FedEx Forum will be a rematch of the semifinal in the Battle 4 Atlantis.
The Cardinals should come out of the Bahamas without a loss, but a game with Memphis three weeks later could cause problems for Rick Pitino's team.
Memphis will have an advantage no other team on the Cardinals' nonconference schedule will have—the chance to play them early and study the tape of the game to find weaknesses in the Cardinals.
Predicted First Loss: November 20 vs. UCLA
The team that everyone is talking about at the moment is UCLA, and with Shabazz Muhammad now eligible, the Bruins will be looking to make a statement.
What better chance to do so than to beat No. 1 Indiana in the Progressive Legends Classic on Tuesday.
The game does rely on Indiana beating Georgia and UCLA beating Georgetown, but both the Hoosiers and Bruins are favorites to win their games on Monday.
There is no doubt that Indiana will have a strong season, but Muhammad and the Bruins will have a point to prove on Tuesday and should beat the Hoosiers.