Before you call blasphemy on account of Jared Sullinger, Harrison Barnes or any one of a number of talented freshmen, hear this.
Players from elite teams like North Carolina and Kentucky have too strong of supporting casts to win the award. These squads simply have too many weapons to continually rely on a single player.
In Jared Sullinger's case, the departures of three-point sharpshooters Jon Diebler and David Lighty will likely allow defenses to collapse on Sullinger on the block, possibly hurting his stat line.
And for the freshmen argument, well, Kevin Durant is the only newcomer in the award's 43-year history to win the prestigious honor. Despite loads of talent, I just don't see it happening again this year.
Point guards, on the other hand, won the Naismith Award three consecutive years from 2002-2004. These winners include Jason Williams of Duke, T.J. Ford of Texas and most recently Jameer Nelson of St. Josephs.
This season, there are several elite point guards, but the two front-runners are Xavier's Tu Holloway and Wisconsin's Jordan Taylor.
Last year both players put up numbers that are eerily similar to the aforementioned Naismith winners.
In fact, Holloway's stats from last year are almost identical to Jameer Nelson's during his award-winning season. Both A-10 point guards averaged between 20-21 points per game, 5.3-5.4 assists per game and 4.7-5.1 rebounds per game. True, Nelson was a better defender who turned the ball over a bit less, but there is certainly potential for improvement during Holloway's senior year.
The other candidate, Wisconsin's Jordan Taylor, is generally regarded as the nation's best point guard, and though his stat line isn't as pristine as Holloway's, the Big Ten competition he faces blows the Atlantic 10 out of the water.
Entering their senior seasons, both of these guys look primed to put up monster numbers.
Look for either Taylor of Holloway to take home some hardware.