Syracuse Preview: Backcourt Key to NCAA Tournament Return in 2008-09

With all due respect to Arinze Onuaku, it will be the experience of the Orange backcourt that will take Syracuse back to the NCAA tournament after a two-year absence.

The season that was for Jim Boeheim's club last year could best be described as growing pains. Fans saw arguably the best pair of true freshmen in the entire country with Donte Greene and Jonny Flynn showcasing their talent for millions to see.

While Greene will be mostly riding the bench this year in Sacramento, Flynn was smart enough to stay behind, hopefully realizing that despite his amazing talent to create shots and plays for his teammates, he still lacks maturity and discipline.

The big reason for optimism, though, is the return of senior guards Andy Rautins and Eric Devendorf, who were injured for almost all of the 2007-08 season. Rautins came on strong at the end of 2006-07 despite his relatively fragile frame because he was the best spot-up shooter on the team.

Devendorf is the prototypical combo guard: good ball-handler, OK passer, decent shooter, but not the most proactive without the basketball in his hands. However, he was Syracuse's leader at the beginning of the season, and his experience was missed as the youngsters were thrust into major roles instead of being a big-time supporting cast.

Devendorf can be too emotional at times, but he's not afraid to have the ball in his hands when crunch time arrives, and being clutch at the line was not something that was evident as the Orange let a few late-season games slip away.

The backcourt rotation of dead-eye Rautins, uber-talented Flynn, and ice-water veins Devendorf should be the focus of the Orange's offense this year.

That being said, Arinze Onuaku showed last year that he's the first real low-post threat the Orange have had in many years. Hakim Warrick was an athletic freak of nature who could overpower college players with his quickness, but he was not a post player. Onuaku gives the Orange a big body down low to pick up loose balls and get points in the paint.

Paul Harris may have had a 0.1 higher rebounds per game average than Onuaku, but 40 percent of his rebounds were on the offensive end. Those second and third chances can often make or break a game.

Many Syracuse fans are wondering if the Paul Harris who was supposed to be the best recruit in college basketball two years ago will show up. He showed great improvement in his overall offensive game and proved to be one of the best defenders and rebounders for his size in all of college basketball.

However, the big question remains: Is the Paul Harris of 2007-08 the best the fans will see, or will he have a more well-rounded and complete offensive game rather than just scoring on offensive rebounds and layups, and start creating some offense for he and his teammates?

The other big question marks are how much Jim Boeheim decides to use his bench players, which usually is not much. The six players he trusts most on his roster are (in no particular order) Eric Devendorf (G), Jonny Flynn (G), Paul Harris (SF), Arinze Onuaku (PF-C), Kris Ongenaet (F), and Andy Rautins (G). After that is a bunch of question marks.

Boeheim does bring two of the top 75 high school recruits in this year as true freshmen in small forwards Mookie Jones and Kris Joseph.

The only true center on the Syracuse team is sophomore Sean Williams, who played 22 minutes the entire season in 2007-08. How much trust Boeheim puts in Rick Jackson and Scoop Jardine, as Iowa State transfer Wesley Johnson must sit out the 2008-09 season, remains to be seen.

The growth of one or more bench players may make the difference between a 22-win team that gets an eight-seed and a 25-win team that earns a five- or six-seed. Being able to rest his starters for what expects to be a grueling schedule and Big East tournament is important.

Syracuse has often been accused of having a soft non-conference schedule, and there certainly are some easy games in the early season that should be easy victories for the Orange (LeMoyne, Oakland, Richmond, Colgate, Cornell, Cleveland, Canisius, Coppin State, and Long Beach State)—all of which are home games.

However, there are three games that on paper won't be penciled in as easy victories. The Orange play a neutral site game against Florida on Nov. 24, Kansas/Washington on Nov. 25, host Virginia on Nov. 28, and go on the road to play at 2008 runner-up Memphis on Dec. 20.

If the Orange are 11-2 or better entering conference play, they should be in good shape.

With seven Big East teams ranked in the ESPN Preseason Top 25, half of Syracuse's conference schedule will be against top 25 teams, as the Orange play two games against Villanova (Feb. 7 and Feb. 22) and Georgetown (Jan. 14 and Feb 14), play at Pitt (Jan. 19), Connecticut (Feb. 11), and Marquette (March 7), and host Louisville (Jan. 25) and Notre Dame (Jan. 17).

A 4-5 record (or better) in this slate of games would help increase some of the vital stats that the NCAA Tournament Committee would be looking for an at-large bid.

For the remaining nine games on the conference schedule, Syracuse plays Rutgers twice, is home against West Virginia, DePaul, Seton Hall, and plays at St. John's, South Florida, and Providence. West Virginia always is a tough matchup, but having the tougher teams at the Carrier Dome should help. I would aim for seven wins out of this nine-game set.

Adding up the numbers, Syracuse could enter the Big East tournament with a 22-9 overall record, at 11-7 in the Big East, and fall somewhere between a five- and seven- seed in the now 16-team Big East tournament. With that record and a few wins against ranked teams, with about a .500 record against RPI Top 50 teams, one win in the conference tourney should get Syracuse into the NCAA tournament as an at-large.

A road win against Georgetown, Villanova, Pitt, Florida, or Memphis would make that résumé even more attractive, as would a trip to the semifinals of the Big East tournament.

My prediction is that Syracuse finishes the season at 22-9 (11-7), wins two games in the Big East tournament, and then loses to Louisville in the semis.

The 24-10 record with an RPI in the top 30 gets Syracuse a six-seed, where they win their first-round game and pull a minor upset beating a No. 3 seed to reach the Sweet 16. However, the team isn't ready for prime time yet, as the No. 2 seed in their bracket ends the Orange's run at 26-11.

Jonny Flynn or Eric Devendorf gets selected to the All-Big East team and decides to come back for another year in 2009-10, with a supporting cast who's ready to make a serious run at an NCAA title.