North Carolina Basketball: 10 Bold Predictions for the Tar Heels in 2011-12
WithĀ Harrison Barnes, John Henson and Tyler Zeller'sĀ announcementsĀ that they are coming backĀ for another yearĀ on campus,Ā Roy Williams' North Carolina Tar Heels went from reloading to riding on top of the 2011-12Ā college basketball world.
The Tar Heels returnĀ all seven of their topĀ players (in terms of minutes and scoring), and they welcome ESPN.com's No. 4-ranked recruiting class.
To say that UNC is loaded may be the understatement of the year.
Here are 10 bold predictions about what will happen in Chapel Hill in the 2011-12 college basketball season.
Records will be broken.Ā Dozens of gamesĀ will be wonāand who knows?Ā Will RoyĀ and his Tar HeelsĀ bring home another title?
10. Kendall Marshall Will Set the UNC Records for Assists and Assists Per Game
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Kendall Marshall stepped into the role as starting point guard for the Tar Heels in mid-January. From that point forward, UNC posted a 17-3 record, including making it to the Elite Eight in the NCAA Tournament.
On the year, Marshall led North Carolina in assists per game (6.2). That figure is a little misleading, because that includes the first half of the season where Marshall was splitting time with Larry Drew II.
Early on as starting PG,Ā Marshall dished outĀ 16 assists against Florida State. This outing broke the UNC freshman record of 14 held by Ed Cota and Phil Ford.
That won't be the last assist record that Marshall will set.
With the offensive firepower that will be on the floor next season. Marshall should set the North CarolinaĀ single season assists and assists-per-gameĀ records.
Currently, Ed Cota has both of those marks. In 1999-2000, he handed out 284 assists, which was 8.1 APG.
Marshall had six games this past season where he had at least 10 assists.
Even more impressiveĀ than just the number of assists that Marshall handed out during his freshman season is his eye-catching assists-to-turnover ratio (2.5).
I would not be shocked to see Marshall come close to averaging double-figures in assists in the 2011-12 season.Ā
9. John Henson Will Become the Tar Heels' All-Time Shot Block Leader
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John Henson is one of the best shot blockers in the nation.
He combines his size and incredible length with outstanding athletic ability and timing to swat shots left and right.
Brendan Haywood holds most of the Tar Heels' shot blocking recordsāsingle game (10), season (120) and career (304).
Henson was two blocks shy (118) of tying Haywood's single season record in 2010-11.
If he blocks just 11 moreĀ shots this next season,Ā he will set both the season and career records.Ā
But remember, Haywood took four seasons to set the season record. Henson will do it in three.
Sorry, Brendan...I think you're name's coming off the record books.
8. John Henson Will Also Post 25 Double-Doubles in 2010-11
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John Henson is a double-double (DD)Ā Freak.
Henson posted 20 DDs this past season.
In fact, heĀ actually averaged a DD (11.7 ppg and 10.1 rpg) for 2010-11.
Hall of Famer Billy Cunningham has the Tar Heels single-season DD record (22 in the 1963-64 season). Ā
It's hard for me to imagine Henson will not take another step forward in the 2011-12 season.
7. Harrison Barnes Will Surpass Michael Jordan's Sophomore Season Scoring Mark
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When you're taking down any of Michael Jordan's records, you're doing something special.
Harrison Barnes came to Chapel Hill with some very high expectation placed on him. He was thought of as one of the top high school seniors moving on to college.
Once on campus, Barnes was listed as an APĀ Preseason All-American.
After a veryĀ average start, Barnes turned it onĀ towards the end of the season, averaging over 23 PPG during the Tar Heels' last six games.
Barnes may be in line toĀ improve on MJ's UNCĀ sophomore-season scoring record (721 pointsĀ in 1982-83). To do this, he would have to raise his scoringĀ levelĀ around four PPG from his freshman average (15.7)āa very reachable goal.
6. Tyler Zeller Will Still Be the Tar Heels' Leading Scorer Next Season
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Tyler Zeller isn't flashy.
He doesn'tĀ "Wow" people with his ability to slide outside and shoot the threeālast season, he didn't attempt a single shot from beyond the arc.
But Zeller does have a quiet way of taking over games.
For the 2010-11 season, Zeller tied with Harrison Barnes as the Tar Heels' leading scorers (15.7 PPG).
During the NCAA Tournament, Zeller stepped up his game, scoring nearly 26 PPG.
The 7'0" power forward goes about his business in workman-like fashion, shooting a high-percentage from both the field (54.7 percent) and at the line (76.3 percent). Ā
While Barnes and Henson may grab more of the headlines and attention, Zeller may be the one who leads the team in scoring.
5. The Tar Heels Will Lead the Nation and Break the UNC Record for Blocked Shots
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When you think of intimidating, shot-rejecting teams, North Carolina does notĀ seem like it would be at or near the top of the list.
Kentucky? That makes sense.
Syracuse? I can buy that.
UConn? Okay.
But, as it turns out, UNC was right on these teams' heels when it came to blocking shots this past season.
With Henson, Zeller and Barnes returningāalong with freshmen phenom James McAdoo (described on ESPN.comĀ as an "excellent shot blockerĀ who erases teammate's defensive errors")Ā coming on board, the Tar Heels' opponents may have a tough time getting shots to the rim.
To break the school record (219),Ā UNC will onlyĀ have to block anĀ extra 16 shots over this past seasonānot exactlyĀ out-of-the-question for what could easily be the best front-line in college basketball inĀ years.Ā
4. The Tar Heels Will Lead the Nation and Break the UNC Record for Rebounding
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With 42.5 RPG, North Carolina was the nation's rebounding leader in 2010-11.
With John Henson, Tyler Zeller, Harrison Barnes and Dexter Strickland returning and James McAdoo (6'8", 216 lbs), P.J. Hairston (6'5", 220 lbs) and Desmond Hubert (6'9", 207 lbs) arriving, is there any question that the Tar Heels will be even more dominant on the boards this season?
The UNC school record for RPG average is 50 years old (49.9 rpg in 1960-61). The Tar Heels grabbed 1,148 rebounds in 32 games.Ā
Breaking this record will not beĀ easy, but I think that the national record is safe. UConn grabbed an unbelievable 70 rebounds per game in 1955.
3. The Tar Heels Will Tie or Surpass the UNC Record for Wins in a Season
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With the Tar Heels 2011-12 schedule still not finalized, it is hard to know how many gamesĀ UNC will play next season.
However, it isĀ very possible thatĀ North CarolinaĀ will tie or surpass its school record of 36 wins, which wasĀ established in 2007-08 when they made it to the Final Four.Ā
2. The Tar Heels Will Win Both the ACC Regular Season and Conference Tournament
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It is definitely not a given that whoever wins the ACC regular season will also win the conference tournament.
The Tar Heels won the regular season crown this year, but Duke won the ACC tourney.
UNC has won the regular season conference title 35 times. They have only won the ACC tourney the same year 12 times.
Next season will make 13!
1. The Tar Heels Will Win the 2012 NCAA Championship
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North Carolina has won five NCAA Championships (1957, 1982, 1993, 2005 andĀ 2009).
The Tar Heels will not only make it into the 2012 NCAA Tournament and advance to the Final Four, but
they will cut down the nets again and winĀ anotherĀ NCAA ChampionshipĀ next season.
With four potential lottery picks in their starting line-up, the Tar Heels are going to be very difficult to stop.
If the Tar Heels do win, this will be Roy Williams' third title (in nine years)Ā since coming to Chapel Hill.
It will also putĀ Williams one Championship ahead of UNC coaching legend Dean Smith.
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