Butler, VCU and Who? Five Mid-Major Teams with the Best Final Four Shot in 2012
Now that mid-major teams have cracked the Final Four field in consecutive years, you may be wondering whether the parity streak can continue into 2012.
Several schools from non-power conferences have become perennial contenders in March, such as Gonzaga and Memphis, but neither would be labelled a "Cinderella" like VCU or Butler.
Can the small conferences push one of their delegates to the Final Four for the third straight year? Both Butler and VCU are losing key players to graduation after this season, so the mid-majors may need to bank on a different squad for representation in New Orleans.
Here are the five most likely contenders to ambush your bracket with four (or five!) straight W’s in next year’s tournament, none of whom appeared in the 2011 contest.
5. Nevada Wolf Pack (Western Athletic Conference)
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2011 was a forgettable campaign for the Wolf Pack in the Western Athletic Conference (13-19, 8-8) and quite a letdown following seven straight 20-win seasons and four straight tournament appearances from 2004 to 2007.
The WAC has been dominated by Utah State for the last three seasons, but the Aggies will lose three of their top four scorers.
Nevada, in contrast, returns all five starters, including top scorer Malik Story (14.5 PPG) and WAC Freshman of the Year Deonte Burton (13.7 PPG).
The Wolf Pack last saw the Sweet Sixteen in 2004—the experience of next year’s team could take them to the third weekend.
4. Drexel Dragons (Colonial Athletic Association)
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With recent Final Four appearances from George Mason and Virginia Commonwealth, the Colonial Athletic Association is always a threat for a deep run in March.
With a host of talent moving on (George Mason’s Cam Long, VCU’s Jamie Skeen, Old Dominion's Frank Hassell), a changing of the guard may be in the works.
The Dragons ended 2011 with a 21-10 overall record and a respectable 11-7 conference mark. Unlike GMU, ODU and VCU, Drexel returns four of its top five scorers, including sophomore guard Chris Fouch (14.9 PPG).
Junior forward Samme Givens led the conference in rebounding, and freshmen Dartaye Ruffin and Frank Massenat were named to the CAA All-Rookie team.
It is unlikely that the CAA will send three teams to the field of 68 next March, but it is a conference that's now very much on the Selection Committee's radar. Drexel should be able to take advantage of the extra attention and capitalize on notable departures from its rivals to get back to the tournament for the first time in 15 years.
3. Kent State Golden Flashes (Mid-American Conference)
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The Golden Flashes posted the best record (25-12, 12-4) in the Mid-American Conference in 2011. They came within one point of reaching the NCAA tournament, suffering an overtime defeat to Akron in the conference tournament final.
Kent State made a little noise in the NIT, advancing to the third round with wins against Saint Mary's and Fairfield, and is returning four of its top five scorers from a year ago.
6’8” junior forward and MAC Player of the Year Justin Greene led the team in both points (15.8 PPG) and rebounds (8.3 RPG). Fellow juniors Carlton Guyton and Michael Porrini also averaged double figures from the guard position, and sophomore guard Randal Holt chipped in 9.9 points per game.
The Flashes advanced all the way to the Elite Eight in 2002.
The 2012 club may be talented enough to go one step further, if they can first get through the upset-rich MAC tournament.
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2. Creighton Bluejays (Missouri Valley Conference)
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The Bluejays followed a ho-hum regular season (23-16, 10-8) with a trip to the finals in the College Basketball Invitational tournament. The high-note finish could help Creighton secure its first NCAA tournament berth since 2007 in 2012.
Creighton returns its top three-point producers, led by the team’s leading scorer and rebounder (and Missouri Valley Conference Freshman of the Year) Doug McDermott.
McDermott is joined by junior guard Antoine Young and sophomore center Gregory Echenique, both of whom averaged double figures in points, with Echenique also leading the conference in blocks.
The top four schools in The Valley all lose key personnel going into next season—this may be the break Creighton needs to turn CBI success into NCAA Tournament glory.
1. Saint Mary's Gaels (West Coast Conference)
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2011 left a bitter taste in the mouths of the Gaels, who received no Selection Committee love despite a strong record (25-9, 11-3). Hopes were high in Moraga following an impressive run to the Sweet Sixteen in 2010.
The Gaels lose West Coast Conference Player of the Year Mickey McConnell from next year’s squad, but return their remaining four starters. All-conference selections Rob Jones and Matthew Dellavedova return along with forward Mitchell Young, all three of whom averaged double figures.
Saint Mary’s must always contend with WCC rival Gonzaga, and with the Bulldogs losing top scorer Steven Gray the Gaels may be in a good position to improve on 2010’s success.
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