College Basketball: 10 Bubble Teams That Will Be Sweating on Selection Sunday
Selection Sunday is an exciting time for many of college basketball's powerhouse programs as they get to see what city they will be playing in and what seed they received.
Some teams though are awaiting anxiously to see if they are in the tournament period and those are the teams that I will be talking about. I will let you know about 10 teams who are squarely on the NCAA bubble and figure to be sweating big time when the selection show occurs.
As always, let me know your thoughts and opinions regardless of if they are positive or negative.
- The RPI and Strength of Schedule are according to the information fromย latest ESPN bubble watch.
- RPI and Strength of Schedule numbers apply throughout February 28th so minor adjustments may have happened since then.
Baylor
1 of 10
The team
Baylor was a consensus top 25 selection in preseason polls and definitely has NCAA tournament caliber talent on their roster.
Center Perry Jones is an elite talent and could possibly be selected as the top pick in the 2011 NBA Draft. LaceDarius Dunn and Quincy Acy are also big contributors for Head Coach Scott Drewโs squad.
The Numbers
- Record: 18-11 (7-8 in the Big 12)
- RPI: 72
- Strength of Schedule: 48ย
What to like about the profile
A pair of victories over No. 22 Texas A&M will look nice on the Bears resume, but besides that there arenโt any other marquee wins or accomplishments to get excited about.
What to not like about the profile
Baylor had three chances to collect a quality non-conference win early in the season and they fell each time losing to Washington State, Florida State and Gonzaga. Losses to Big 12 bottom feeders such as Texas Tech, Iowa State and Oklahoma also arenโt going to help Baylorโs cause on Selection Sunday.
The verdict
OUT: Baylor has now amassed eight Big 12 conference losses and there arenโt many quality wins to fall back on. The Bears can cure a lot of their ills by beating No. 8 Texas at home on Saturday night or stringing together a lengthy run in their Conference Tournament.
One or possibly both of those things have to happen if Baylor hopes to be included in the tourney. As it stands right now Baylor has a resume that screams NIT.
Gonzaga
2 of 10
The team
Gonzagaโs streak of 11 straight NCAA Tournament appearances is in jeopardy, the question is how dicey their bubble position is.
The Bulldogs regular season is over and the Zags will rely on the West Coast Conference Tournament to either play their way into the tournament or rack up some more wins before Selection Sunday.
The numbers
- Record: 22-9 (11-3 in the West Coast Conference)
- RPI: 64
- Strength of Schedule: 113
What to like about the profile
Non-conference victories against Xavier, Marquette and Baylor will play into Gonzagaโs favor on Selection Sunday. A road win against St. Maryโs will also be beneficial when the committee scans the resume. The fact that Gonzaga is riding a seven game winning streak is nice, although the competition has been suspect.
What to not like about the profile
The computer numbers arenโt impressive and the 100+ strength of schedule will surely hold the Zags back. Conference losses to San Francisco and Santa Clara are also going to bite the Zags when their resume gets looked over. Finally the WCC is particularly weak even with St. Maryโs, so there will be judgment placed on that fact.
The verdict
OUT: Gonzagaโs computer numbers are too high and there arenโt really a lot of non-conference victories to fall back on.
The Xavier win continues to hold up well, but the Baylor victory doesnโt look nearly as good as it did on December 18th when Baylor were ranked No. 9.
It is debatable as to whether an appearance in the West Coast Conference championship game would put Gonzaga in the field.
My advice to Gonzaga would be to win the tournament if they want to feel completely secure, otherwise there will be heavy sweating on Selection Sunday.ย ย
Marquette
3 of 10
The team
Buzz Williamsโ young squad fights hard and their up tempo style of play is tough for opponents to defend against.
Marquette doesnโt have a single first round NBA talent on their roster, but this teamโs toughness and cohesiveness is what makes them special. Darius Johnson-Odom andย Jimmy Butler lead the charge for the Golden Eagles.
The numbers
- Record: 18-12 (9-8 in the Big East)
- RPI: 50
- Strength of Schedule: 30
What to like about the profile
Home wins against Big East heavyweights Notre Dame and Syracuse will stand out when the committee looks at Marquette.
A recent road win against No. 16 UConn will also improve the Golden Eagles cause.
Finally no matter how you slice it, nine Big East wins is an impressive feat that has historically warranted at large NCAA inclusion.
What to not like about the profile
Marquette lost by five points or less to Duke, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt and Gonzaga in the non-conference and the result of these near misses is a non-conference resume that looks bland and unimpressive. Besides the Connecticut win, Marquette doesn't have a road victory worth mentioning.
The verdict
IN: Marquette could have put to rest any remaining NCAA doubts by beating Cincinnati at home on Wednesday night, but the Golden Eagles are still on the right side of the bubble.
A loss at Big East bottom feeder Seton Hall on Saturday could make things really dicey, but if Marquette can take care of business against the Pirates then they should feel pretty secure about their NCAA case going into the Big East tournament. ย
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Boston College
4 of 10
The team
Steve Donahue has done a great job in taking over for Al Skinner at Boston College and has the Eagles on the brink of the NCAA Tournament.
Reggie Jackson and Jeff Trapani are the playmakers for this Eagles team and will have a huge impact on BCโs fate. No one will mistake Boston College for having an NBA filled roster, but the Eagles play together and leave it all on the court.
The numbers
- Record: 18-11 (8-7 in the ACC)
- RPI: 46
- ย Strength of Schedule: 13
What to like about the profile
One of the first things that jumps out at you are the strong computer numbers, most notably the strength of schedule.
The pair of victories against Virginia Tech also plays into Boston Collegeโs favor. The Eagles do lack the signature win that Virginia Tech got in their victory over Duke.
What to not like about the profile
A home defeat to a mediocre Yale team is a stain on the Eagleโs resume. In addition, Boston Collegeโs resume is devoid of a truly marquee win. The fact that Boston College has only won three of their last six games is also somewhat troubling.
The verdict
IN: Boston College gets the nod for now because of their computer numbers and their head to head success against Virginia Tech.
The ACC has two locks in Duke and North Carolina with Florida State also looking strong. I think that the ACC will end up getting a fourth team in with either Boston College or Virginia Tech and right now the Eagles have the slight edge.
A manageable home game against Wake Forest on Sunday awaits the Eagles before they head to the ACC Tournament. ย
UAB
5 of 10
The team
Former Indiana Head Coach Mike Davis serves as the leader of this UAB team and Davis has had a fair amount of success in his time in Birmingham.
Jamarr Sanders and Cameron Moore are UABโs two top talents and have been a big part of the success that this team has enjoyed throughout 2010.
The numbers
- Record- 21-7 (11-4 in Conference USA)
- RPI- 31
- Strength of Schedule- 64
What to like about the profile
A 70-65 overtime victory over Arkansas is the only non-conference victory worth talking about.
What is keeping the Blazers in the at large discussion is their high RPI ranking, which currently stands at 31. A triple overtime victory over UTEP on January 8th is also a win worth talking about.
What to not like about the profile
UAB struggled against Conference USAโs upper echelon teams and doesnโt have much in the way of big wins. The Blazerโs non-conference is pretty unimpressive, which is a bad sign for a mid major seeking at large inclusion into the NCAA Tournament.
The verdict
OUT: Schools from power conferences (Big East, Big Ten, ACC, PAC and SEC) can afford to let their conference victories do all the talking, but schools such as UAB from Conference USA need to build up their resume in the non-conference.
The Blazers didnโt do anything of note in the non-conference and quite frankly, the Arkansas victory wonโt save UAB if they are on the cut line on Selection Sunday.
Combine the fact that UAB only won one game in their five meetings with upper echelon Conference USA members Tulsa, Memphis and Southern Miss, and the Blazers may need to make it to the Conference USA tournament final, and even that may not be enough for Head Coach Mike Davisโs squad.
Virginia Tech
6 of 10
The team
Virginia Tech is the nationโs perennial bubble team and every year Head Coach Seth Greenburgโs team is sweating it out until the end.
This season is no different, and the Hokies will be one of the most talked about teams on Selection Sunday.
Malcolm Delany and Jeff Allen are big time talents and their play will determine whether the Hokies dance or not.
The numbers
- Record: 19-9 (9-6 in the ACC)
- RPI: 51
- Strength of Schedule: 104
What to like about the profile
Last Saturdayโs victory over No. 4 Duke re-energized Virginia Techโs bubble campaign and it will be a win that the Hokies will get a tremendous amount of mileage out of. A home victory against Florida State on January 8th is the next best win on the Hokies resume.
What not to like about the profile
The strength of schedule is definitely high at 104 and that is one aspect of the profile that is holding the Hokies back.
A pair of losses to in state rival Virginia and fellow ACC bubble team Boston College arenโt helping Virginia Techโs cause either.
Virginia Tech came dangerously close to getting a big non-conference victory against Purdue early in the season before falling 58-55 in overtime.
The verdict
OUT: Virginia Tech visits Clemson on Saturday in what will be a defining game for the Hokies.
Virginia Tech followed up their massive home victory against Duke by getting beat by Boston College at home by 15 points.
If only the Hokies could sustain their positive momentum, they would be in great shape. Right now the high strength of schedule and two losses to BC leaves Virginia Tech on the outside looking in.
Illinois
7 of 10
The team
Much like Baylor, Illinois was projected as a top 25 squad going into the season, so their appearance on this list is somewhat surprising.
Illinois has NCAA Tournament talent with players such as Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis and Jereme Richmond but the team hasn't been able to put all of this talent together and their resume doesnโt look NCAA worthy just yet.
The numbers
- Record: 18-12 (8-9 in the Big Ten)
- RPI: 38
- Strength of Schedule: 18
What to like about the profile
Illinoisโ 18th-ranked schedule will work in their favor on Selection Sunday, as will home victories over No. 10 Wisconsin, No. 13 North Carolina and Gonzaga.
A top 40 RPI is also passable and wonโt work against the Fighting Illini on Selection Sunday.
What to not like about the profile
Illinois has only won five out of their last 14 games and Bruce Webberโs team is definitely limping toward the finish line. Besides the Wisconsin victory, Illinois hasnโt amassed any more signature Big Ten wins.
The verdict
IN: A win against Indiana at home on Saturday would push the Illiniโs record to 19-12 (9-9 in the Big Ten) which looks much more respectable.
A loss against the Hoosiers would be back breaking, so it will be important that Illinois takes care of business at home or else they will be on bubble life support.
Even with the Indiana victory, it would probably be smart of Illinois to pick up a win in the Big Ten tournament just to get to 20 wins.
Georgia
8 of 10
The team
Former Nevada coach Mark Fox is doing great things in Athens and with the help of pro prospects Travis Leslie and Trey Thompkins, the Bulldogs have put together a solid season.
The question now becomes whether this good play will result in a coveted NCAA bid for Fox and his players?
Georgia is certainly right in the thick of it, which couldnโt always be said for the program.
The numbers
- Record: 20-9 (9-6 in the SEC)
- RPI: 35
- Strength of Schedule: 27
What to like about the profile
Georgiaโs computer numbers are good, as is their home victory over No. 23 Kentucky.
Non-conference victories over Colorado and UAB arenโt spectacular, but they are still solid. A double overtime loss to Notre Dame on November 25th is one game in particular that the Bulldogs wish they could have closed.
The fact that a home loss to fellow bubbler Tennessee is arguably Georgiaโs worst loss of the season speaks positively about the Bulldogs.
What to not like about the profile
The Kentucky victory is the lone marquee victory of the season for Georgia, and the fact that they have only won four out of their last seven games doesn't bode well.
The verdict
IN: Florida, Kentucky and Vanderbilt are NCAA Tournament locks and I look for the SEC to ultimately get four teams into the NCAA Tournament.
I give Georgia the slight edge over Tennessee based on the fact that the Bulldogs have a better conference record and that Georgia doesnโt have a truly bad loss on their resume.
A win at Alabama on Saturday would give Georgia 10 conference wins and would push them closer to lock status.
Richmond
9 of 10
The team
Richmond was in the NCAA Tournament last season and Chris Moodyโs Spiders are hoping for a similar postseason fate in 2011.
Kevin Anderson is the player that makes things happen for Richmond and the senior will have to play inspired basketball over the next 10 days if Richmond hopes to make the field.
The numbers
- Record: 23-7
- RPI: 62
- Strength of Schedule: 17
What to like about the profile
There are two things to like about the Spiderโs resume:
- A November 27th home victory against No. 6 Purdue.
- Richmond doesnโt have any โbadโ losses.
What to not like about the profile
Richmondโs RPI is pretty weak and the Spiderโs strength of schedule is flat out atrocious.
Losing to Xavier at home is forgivable, but getting blown out by 23 points at home doesnโt bode well for the Spiders. A 20 point road loss to Temple serves as a missed opportunity, and just like against Xavier, the large margin of defeat doesnโt look good.
The verdict
OUT: A home victory this Saturday against slumping Duquesne is a must, as is a deep run in the Atlantic 10 Tournament.
The Purdue victory will continue to serve as Richmondโs โgolden ticketโ victory all the way up until Selection Sunday, but it will most likely take a victory over Xavier or Temple in Atlantic City to make the Spiders legitimate NCAA Tournament contenders.
Right now there isnโt enough on the resume to merit inclusion, but fear not Richmond fans, there is still time for the Spiders to bolster their case.
Tennessee
10 of 10
The team
No team has been on more of a roller coaster than Tennessee this season.
If you combine the fact that Head Coach Bruce Pearl served an eight game SEC suspension with their tremendous highs and lows, then you can understand how itโs fitting that they are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives right until the very end.
The numbers
- Record: 18-12 (8-7 in the SEC)
- RPI: 33
- Strength of Schedule: 2
What to like about the profile
The second best Strength of Schedule in the country along with a non-conference victory against No. 5 Pittsburgh will be as Cousin Eddie puts it โthe gift that keeps on giving.โ
A pair of victories over No. 20 Vanderbilt will also bolster Tennesseeโs case on Selection Sunday.
What to not like about the profile
Non-conference losses to USC, UNC-Charlotte and Oakland arenโt helping the Volunteers cause.
In addition, a November 26th victory over Villanova that was once considered resume gold is losing its shine at an alarming rate.
Tennesseeโs 18 wins are somewhat on the light side and they could definitely afford to notch together a few more victories before Selection Sunday.
The verdict
OUT: A matchup at home against Kentucky on Sunday will be critical as will the SEC Tournament, but Tennessee, which has lost five out of their last eight games has been too erratic to include into the field at this time.
The Volunteers still have the opportunity to play their way in and there is no doubt they have the talent to do this, but right now the Vols are on the outside looking in despite their great computer numbers. ย
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