Does Duke Basketball Need a Crucial Third Scorer to Go Deep in NCAA Tounament?

No team has ever won the NCAA tournament in the last 20 years just relying on one person.

BYU fans salivating at the thought of Jimmer Fredette shooting them to the NCAA championship are severely delusional, especially now that low-post threat Brandon Davies has been suspended for Honor Code violations.

Carmelo Anthony has been credited with earning Jim Boeheim his lone championship in his 35 years at Syracuse, but that team had great balance. Gerry McNamara took care of business from downtown, while Hakim Warrick posted and rebounded. This allowed Carmelo to operate at his strength from mid-range.

At the beginning of the season coach Mike Krzyzewski went to great lengths to stress that this team was different from last year’s that won the championship, but that team also had balance. They relied on three main scorers, and when one was flailing, the other two stepped up.

At the moment this team has only Nolan Smith as a consistent scorer. Kyle Singler is second in scoring with 17.4 points per game, but he has struggled ever since it emerged that he could become a top five all-time scorer at Duke.

Tonight against Clemson and Saturday at North Carolina, the Blue Devils have to be victorious if they want to win the ACC outright and be in the running for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

"It's two games that we know we have to win," Smith said. "It's kind of like the ACC Tournament right now. Win two and you're a champion. Wednesday night is the semifinals, and the next game is the championship."

The trouble is Clemson wants this victory just as badly as Duke or even more. Duke is playing for a higher seed in the tournament, and Clemson is playing for an invitation.

It may be senior night, but Duke should be looking for big production from three sophomores against one of the best defensive teams in the ACC. Clemson is 13th in the nation in points allowed per game, even if Duke has yet to lose at home this season.

Seth Curry has a reputation as a prolific scorer, but he is not consistent. In Duke’s third loss of the season, against his father’s alma mater, Virginia Tech, he fouled out with no points. Ever since he scored 22 points to beat North Carolina at the beginning of February, maybe teams have focused on him more defensively.

Andre Dawkins is athletic and has one of the team's prettiest releases on his jump shot, but he seems to settle for hanging out on the three-point line waiting for Smith to drive and throw back to him. If he can attack the basket as aggressively as Gerald Henderson and the way he used to drive to the basket and then pull up for that silky-smooth jumper, that will be the best way forward for Dawkins. Use the three-point shot as a threat to get to the hoop.

Ryan Kelly is constantly working on his game. At the beginning of the season one had a feeling that he was only starting to save Miles Plumlee from foul trouble, but as the season wore on and Kelly’s confidence grew, his defense has evolved to the point where he needs to be in the game all the time, using his length to Duke’s advantage.

Offensively Kelly has been struggling with his shot lately, even though he has been wide open at times.  In the last three games Kelly has gone 0-of-7 on three-pointers even though Duke went 2-1 in that span.  He has started to drive to the basket, albeit a little clumsily but effectively.

Duke may not need that third scorer to be a specific one of these guys every time, but at least one of them has to bring it all the time. That was missing in the loss to Virginia Tech, where Singler and Smith were responsible for 66 percent of the total score, while the three sophomores mentioned above played 60 minutes and had only eight points between them.

Duke is currently 26-3, so these guys have done a good job to date, but no one can rely on freshman sensation Kyrie Irving to come back this season. He has done enough to prove he should be No. 1 in the upcoming NBA draft, and any play right now can only hurt his stock.

Not that anyone is suggesting he should play it cool until June or this is what he is thinking, but NBA general managers have a history of drafting on potential. That’s why college seniors fare very badly in the draft—because they see too much of them.

Tonight is a pivotal game for Duke. They are at home, and they normally play very well after a loss. Add that to Clemson’s desperation, and this looks like a very good game in the making.