Top 5 Teams In Trouble For March Madness... and It's Only January

With conference play already beginning to hit full force, a divide is beginning to form between the contenders and the pretenders in college basketball.  And while there's still over a month worth of games left, there are some teams that find themselves in very precarious situations.  Here are the top five teams that need to step it up if they have any hopes of dancing in March. 

Butler Bulldogs

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CINCINNATI, OH - DECEMBER 9: Kenny Frease #32 of the Xavier Musketeers dunks past Erik Fromm #4 of the Butler Bulldogs at Cintas Center on December 9, 2010 in Cincinnati, Ohio. Xavier defeated Butler 51-49. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

This could mark the second consecutive year in which a team from the previous season's national championship game may miss the tournament altogether (UNC won it in '09, made the NIT last year).  

And while Butler has an impressive RPI (27) and strength of schedule (23), the Bulldogs are only 4-4 against teams in the top 100 RPI, and with their 6-3 conference record, they're currently in fourth place in the Horizon League Conference. 

On the plus, Butler owns a neutral-court victory over Florida State and wins at home against Valparaiso and Cleveland State, the first and second-place teams in the Horizon League Conference.  On the downside, Butler has no wins against ranked opponents, they were manhandled by Duke and Louisville, lost a nail biter at Xavier, and inexcusably lost at home against Evansville.

In their last two losses, against Wright State and today's home loss to Green-Bay Milwaukee (currently in seventh place in the Horizon League Conference), Butler blew late leads and failed to make a big stop on defense or get a key bucket on offense.  

While this is still the most talented team in the Horizon League with Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack leading the way, the talent gap is not as large as it was last year, when the Bulldogs also had lottery pick Gordon Hayward.  

Finally, just some troubling trends: The Bulldogs rank 191st in the country in rebounds per game, 202nd in assists per game and 141st in field goal percentage.  Does that sound like numbers worthy of a tournament spot?  

St. John's Red Storm

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LOUISVILLE, KY - JANUARY 19: Peyton Siva #3 of the Louisville Cardinals defends D.J. Kennedy #1 of the St. John's Red Storm during the Big East Conference game at the KFC Yum! Center on January 19, 2011 in Louisville, Kentucky. Louisville won 88-63. (

St. John's definitely does have a lot going for it: the Red Storm has an RPI of 23 and they've played the second toughest schedule in the country.  They own home wins over Georgetown and Notre Dame, and wins over Arizona State, Northwestern and a road victory at West Virginia.  So they definitely have a nice resume.

But a storm is brewing at St. John's.  Despite all the good, they have an inexplicable home loss to St. Bonaventure, and a road loss at Fordham, which has still not won a conference game in the A-10. On top of that, they were manhandled in recent defeats against Syracuse and Louisville.

Yet it was their loss yesterday against Cincinnati that highlighted why this team is not NCAA-tournament bound.  Winning teams make their free throws and rebound. St. John's does neither of these things.  They currently rank 299th in the country in rebounding, which is one of the reasons their offense, at 69.7 points per game, ranks 165th.  In their loss to Cincinnati, St. John's shot 12-of-26 from the free-throw line.  They actually shot better from downtown than they did from the free throw line.  The missed free throws came back to haunt them in a two-point loss.

Right now, St. John's still controls its destiny.  But with their next two games at Georgetown and home against Duke, St. John's can easily head into February with an 11-9 record, losers of four in a row and five of six, and a losing record in the Big East.  St. John's still needs another big win or two to really cement themselves as a team inside the bubble instead of on it. 

Central Florida Knights

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LEXINGTON, KY - JANUARY 03: Jared Carter #42 of the Kentucky Wildcats watches a free throwl against the Central Florida Golden Knights during the Kentucky 59-57 win on January 3, 2006 at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Ima

UCF is a team that has gone ice cold after a red hot start.  The Knights' RPI of 64 isn't anything special, and their strength of schedule (107) certainly isn't doing them any favors.  But with a 4-1 record against teams in the top 100 RPI, they've played well against good competition.

So what's hurting them?  Four straight losses have dropped them to the cellar of Conference USA.  The losing streak has included home losses to East Carolina and Rice, and road losses to Houston and Southern Mississippi, in which they were handily defeated.  

Their three wins of note are neutral court victories against Florida and Miami and a home win against Marshall. Outside of that, though, it's really tough to make much of an argument for them.

Their next three games? UAB, Memphis, and UTEP—the top three teams in Conference USA. If UCF gets swept, they can basically kiss any chance of an at-large bid goodbye. 

Northwestern Wildcats

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NEW YORK, NY - DECEMBER 20: Akeem Bennett #24 of the St. Francis Terriers looks to pass the ball aainst the defense of the Northwestern Wildcats during the Madison Square Garden Holiday Festival at Madison Square Garden on December 20, 2010 in New York C

I feel every year is the year that Northwestern is supposed to join the ranks of the "big boys" of the Big 10.  Instead, they come out and get absolutely blown away like they were today at home, when they were embarrassed by Wisconsin in a 78-46 loss—a score that still may not reflect just how badly they were outplayed.

The loss dropped Northwestern to 13-6, and 3-5 in the Big 10.  They have zero wins of note.  Zero.  They are 0-6 against teams in the top 50 RPI, 13-0 against teams who have an RPI of over 50.  Their RPI coming in today was 70th, and despite playing in the Big Ten, one of the top conferences in the country, their 132nd-ranked strength of schedule is thanks to an extremely underwhelming out of conference schedule.

So what's next for the Wildcats?  A road visit to 15th-ranked Minnesota and then playing host to Ohio State and Illinois.  It just doesn't get any easier for the Cats, which look like they'll be featured in the NIT—away from the "big boys."

Gonzaga Bulldogs

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KANSAS CITY, MO - NOVEMBER 23: Stephen Gray #41 of the Gonzaga Bulldogs shoots a free throw during the CBE Classic consolation game against the Marquette Golden Eagles on November 23, 2010 at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie S

Not a good year to be a Bulldog.  Gonzaga—everybody's favorite Cinderella—has simply been a step off this season.  Their RPI (67) is underwhelming, though they've faced a strong schedule (43).  But they're 2-4 against teams in the top 50 RPI, and only 3-2 against teams with an RPI of 50-100.  And their loss to Santa Clara (RPI of 173) is an absolute killer.  Of Gonzaga's 13 victories, six of them are against teams with an RPI of worse than 200. 

Luckily for them, the West Coast Conference is still very winnable.  St. Mary's is the only ranked team in the conference, and currently holds a two-game lead over the Bulldogs. But Gonzaga must realize that this team is not as talented as those in years' past, and an eleventh straight WCC regular-season title can't simply be taken for granted.  

There's no more Mustachioed Mystery Morrison to shoot his way past inferior opponents.  They're 1-4 against ranked teams and even that win is somewhat diminished, as the team is Baylor (another team that has struggled over the last month).  Thursday night's showdown at home against St. Mary's may be the last chance to make a stand for the conference.  If they fall at home, they're all but done.  If they can find a way to upset St. Mary's, there's still enough time to turn the ship around.