NCAA Tournament 2018: Power Ranking the Elite Eight Teams
Each of the remaining teams in the 2018 men's NCAA tournament is now technically elite, but Villanova and Duke are clearly the best of the bunch for power ranking purposes.
Given the way this tournament has played out, it shouldn't be much of a surprise that the top four teams on this list all reside on the right half of the bracket. We could argue about whether Michigan or Texas Tech is more deserving of the No. 4 spot after how well they each played in the Sweet 16, but the moral of the story is that the national champion should come from either the East or Midwest Regional.
That said, difficulty of path to the national championship has no bearing on this list. Rather, this could be considered a ranking of how we would reseed the remaining eight teams based on perceived strength.
We'll take a look at something we've learned about each team at the midway point of the tournament, each team's MVP, its biggest X-factor and what it needs to do to win it all.
8. Kansas State Wildcats
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What We've Learned: Kansas State's defense is back with a vengeance. Four games into the season, the Wildcats were allowing just 50.8 points per game. Sure, the competition was dreadful, but they were forcing turnovers at an astounding rate.
Save for the occasional stifling of an already anemic Texas offense, that defense vanished for a few months before resurfacing in the tournament. Kansas State held both Creighton (59) and Kentucky (58) to their lowest point totals of the season, and that wasn't even the magnum opus. The Wildcats also completely shut down UMBC, forcing 17 turnovers while allowing just 14 made field goals for 43 points. No other team has scored fewer than 47 points in a tournament game this year.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Barry Brown. The defense has been fierce, but offense has come at a premium for Kansas State, especially with Dean Wade playing just eight minutes thus far. The lone consistent source of points has been Brown. The junior had 18 in each of the first two games before scoring 13 against Kentucky. It's not efficient by any means. Brown has missed a combined total of 23 two-point attempts and committed 11 turnovers. But it's still the best the Wildcats have had.
X-Factor: Steals versus rebounds. The Wildcats get a ton of steals. They had 13 against UMBC and 11 more against Kentucky. Those live-ball turnovers can swing a game in a hurry. But this is also one of the worst rebounding teams in the country. They almost need that edge in turnover margin to make up for their nightly deficit in rebounding.
Championship Blueprint: Keep holding opponents below 65 points. The Wildcats are now 14-1 when keeping teams at or below that threshold. And in the lone exception to the rule, Kansas State shot 32.1 percent from the field and 4-of-31 (12.9 percent) from three-point range in a loss to Tulsa. If the defense stays this good—and the offense avoids another performance that awful—the Wildcats can continue to grind out wins.
7. Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
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What We've Learned: The Ramblers have quite a flair for the dramatic, and it comes from all over the roster. Against Miami, Donte Ingram hit the game-winning three-pointer with less than one second remaining. In the victory over Tennessee, it was Clayton Custer who bounced in the game-winner with less than four seconds to go. And Marques Townes splashed in a three-pointer with six seconds left in the Sweet 16, extending Loyola-Chicago's lead over Nevada from a nerve-wracking one point to an insurmountable four points.
To get into those positions for last-second drama, this team has been sensational on defense. The Ramblers turned over Miami 16 times and forced 10 turnovers against a Nevada team that had coughed up the ball just nine times in its first two tournament games combined. They have defended without fouling, limited second-chance opportunities and made just about every three-point attempt a contested one.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Aundre Jackson. Given the way this tournament has played out, it almost seems fitting that the best player from the biggest Cinderella story isn't even a starter. Aside from senior night, Jackson has not started a game since before Christmas, but he has been a massive contributor off the bench. He has scored 43 points in just 61 minutes of action and is a perfect 8-of-8 from the free-throw line.
X-Factor: Turnovers committed. It's hard to believe the Ramblers are still alive with so many live-ball turnovers. Miami had seven steals, Tennessee had eight, and Nevada got 10. Their transition defense is disciplined enough that it hasn't destroyed them, but they can't keep doing that, right? Kansas State is one of the best teams in the country as far as steals are concerned. The Wildcats could destroy Loyola-Chicago with just that one advantage.
Championship Blueprint: Reduce the turnovers, but keep everything else the same. The Ramblers have shot the ball well all season long, and that has continued into the tournament. Their passing is also a thing of beauty, as they take a Virginia-like approach to offense, moving the ball around and probing the defense for the full 30 seconds if necessary. If they can keep opponents at their pace and just stay close in games played in the 60s, anything's possible.
6. Florida State Seminoles
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What We've Learned: Florida State can play defense. To be frank, this team is hardly recognizable . Save for one snail-paced loss to Virginia, the Seminoles had given up at least 73 points in every game since Christmas. In those 19 games (including Virginia), they allowed an average of 80.6 points per game while opponents shot 41.2 percent from three-point range. Now, out of nowhere, they are holding good three-point shooting teams to 61.3 points per game.
We've also been repeatedly reminded just how deep this team is. Florida State's bench is averaging 39.3 points per tournament game. Against Gonzaga, 10 Seminoles played at least 10 minutes, and 11 scored at least two points. It was a similar story in the first two rounds. What they lack in star power, they make up for with a ton of viable scoring options.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Mfiondu Kabengele. It's tough to come up with an MOP option for Florida State. It's a different star every night, and even at that, no Seminole has scored more than 18 points in a game since the regular season ended. But with a hat tip to Braian Angola, we're going with Kabengele. The freshman forward had 14 points and 12 rebounds in the opener against Missouri and blocked four shots in just 14 minutes of action against Gonzaga. He has been a game-changer off the bench for Leonard Hamilton.
X-Factor: Three-point defense and free-throw shooting. Those were the biggest concerns about Florida State heading into the tournament, but neither has been a problem. Opponents have shot a combined 18-of-57 (31.6 percent) from downtown. And while the 'Noles weren't great from the charity stripe in comfortable wins over Missouri and Gonzaga, they made 19 of 22 (86.4 percent) in the comeback win over Xavier. Without those Achilles' heels hindering them, they have looked nothing like a typical No. 9 seed. But will it continue?
Championship Blueprint: Keep winning with defense and diversified offense. Both Missouri and Gonzaga had an absolute nightmare of a time trying to score against Florida State's long and athletic line of defense, which has recorded at least 14 combined steals and blocks in each game. Meanwhile, the Seminoles have been getting contributions from all over on offense, which keeps everyone fresh while making them tough to defend.
We haven't seen them play like this since early December, but it has been nice (albeit not for their opponents) to get another glimpse of the team that began the season 9-0 with an average margin of victory of 20.1 points per game.
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5. Michigan Wolverines
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What We've Learned: For a small-ball team, Michigan is mighty tough to score against. Tyler Davis and Robert Williams (combined 17-of-25 on two-point attempts) were able to put some points on the board in a blowout, but everyone else is shooting a combined 40-of-104 (38.5 percent) from inside the arc against the Wolverines.
For most of the season, that was the way to beat Michigan. Even now, the Wolverines allow the 10th-highest rate of points via two-point attempts, per KenPom. When LSU upset them back in November, the Tigers made 20 of 29 (69.0 percent) two-point shots. But they are suddenly a wall in the paint. Now that they're starting to hit their own shots too, look out.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Charles Matthews. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Moritz Wagner were great in the win over Texas A&M, but Matthews is the one Wolverine who has shown up for all three games, averaging 16.3 points and 7.0 rebounds. It's too bad Kentucky couldn't hold its own and make it out of the South Region. It would've been fun to watch Matthews put on a show in the Final Four against the team that never figured out how to use him as a freshman.
X-Factor: Free-throw shooting. At 66.2 percent, Michigan is the worst free-throw shooting team left in the tournament. In fact, the Wolverines have the sixth-worst percentage among all teams who made it to this year's Big Dance, and two of the five teams behind them were No. 16 seeds. It hasn't been a problem yet, but the prospect of Matthews (57.0 percent) or Zavier Simpson (51.8 percent) needing to salt away the game with late free throws has to be terrifying for Michigan fans.
Championship Blueprint: Keep hitting threes and keep defending. The Wolverines won the first two games with defense, shutting down Montana and limiting Houston's Rob Gray to 23 points on 22 field-goal attempts. And against Texas A&M, you saw what can happen when they are both imposing on defense and looking good on offense. Don't expect them to shoot 58.3 percent from three-point range and 61.9 percent from the field like they did against the Aggies, but as long as they aren't ice cold like they were in the first two games, the Wolverines will be very tough to eliminate.
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders
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What We've Learned: The Red Raiders are healthy. They struggled in January right after losing Zach Smith for more than a month to a foot injury. They had some trouble in February, too, when Keenan Evans was hampered by a toe injury. But that duo has been looking great, and so has the team as a whole.
Smith, in particular, appears to have gotten stronger with each round. He isn't breaking the scoreboard at 9.7 points per game in the tournament, but those are contributions Texas Tech wasn't getting for nearly half the season. He has blocked at least one shot in each game. He played more minutes (24) and scored more points (14) against Purdue than he had in any game since before Christmas. And this team is looking special with him out there.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Evans. If you had to pick an MOP based on what we've seen through three rounds, this would be a good one. Evans is averaging 20.3 points, 3.3 assists and 3.3 rebounds, and he's doing a lot of his damage late in the game at the free-throw line. The senior is 22-of-25 (88.0 percent) from the charity stripe.
X-Factor: The referees. Texas Tech plays physical, aggressive defense, and Evans and Co. certainly don't shy away from contact on offense. As a result, they often get involved in games that become free-throw shooting contests. Case in point: There were 52 combined free-throw attempts in the first-round game against Stephen F. Austin. But there were only 53 total attempts in the last two games because the refs let a lot more fly in the games against Purdue and Florida. What kind of whistles will they get the rest of the way, and can they use it to their advantage?
Championship Blueprint: Defend relentlessly and ride Evans. Texas Tech has been my Final Four sleeper pick since early December, so I'm beating a dead horse at this point. However, as far as the path to success is concerned, nothing has changed for this team in months. When Evans is healthy and scoring 15 or more points, the Red Raiders are basically unbeatable.
3. Kansas Jayhawks
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What We've Learned: Udoka Azubuike is at least close to full health. Bill Self's big man missed the entire Big 12 tournament with a knee injury. He played three minutes in the first round against Penn. He logged 22 minutes against Seton Hall, but he didn't look quite right. The Jayhawks just had no choice but to throw him out there to try to slow down Angel Delgado.
After nearly a full week off before the Sweet 16, though, Azubuike finally looked like himself in the 80-76 win over Clemson. He racked up 14 points, 11 rebounds and a pair of blocks before fouling out. Coupled with the other four starters combining for 10 made three-pointers against the Tigers, it seems the offense is back to usual, which is scary news for the other seven teams still standing.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Devonte' Graham. Hat tip to Malik Newman, who has been equally excellent, but Graham has been the man for the Jayhawks all season long. He carried them through a slow start against the Quakers, finishing with 29 points, six assists and six rebounds. He also had nine assists against Seton Hall and 16 points against Clemson.
X-Factor: Defensive rebounding. As potent as Kansas has been on offense the past two games, it just barely scraped out four-point wins over Seton Hall and Clemson. The reason? Inability to end defensive possessions with rebounds. The Pirates had 14 second-chance points on 15 offensive rebounds. The Tigers went the opposite way, scoring 15 points from 14 offensive rebounds.
Championship Blueprint: Own the perimeter. Kansas has shot better than 41 percent from three-point range in each of its three tournament games, and limiting Clemson to just 30 percent from the same distance was a big reason the Jayhawks were able to advance to the Elite Eight. They aren't great in turnover margin, and they often lose the rebounding battle, but they can more than hold their own when the four-out offense is doing what it does best.
2. Duke Blue Devils
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What We've Learned: The offense is back. No, Duke didn't look great against Syracuse in the Sweet 16, but 69 points is way more than the Orange had allowed in their first three games. To do that while having a dreadful shooting performance is a testament to how darn near impossible it is to stop this team.
Duke put up 89 points against Iona and 87 against Rhode Island in the opening weekend. It was a major improvement from the offense that looked gassed late in the regular season, and it recemented Duke as one of the teams to beat. Marvin Bagley III, Grayson Allen and Gary Trent Jr. have scored in double figures in all three games, and Wendell Carter Jr. was one point shy against Iona of joining them in that club.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Bagley. The big man has found his magic number in the NCAA tournament. He scored 22 points in the first round against Iona. He followed it up with 22 points in the second-round win over Rhode Island. And against Syracuse? You guessed it. He had another 22 points. He is also averaging 4.7 offensive rebounds per game, including six huge ones in the four-point win over the Orange.
X-Factor: Turnovers. Duke lost the turnover battle in each of its first two games of the tournament, although it didn't much matter in those blowouts. The Blue Devils dominated the turnover margin against Syracuse, however, and that was a huge difference-maker in a nail-biter. Prior to Friday night, Duke had been struggling with turnovers for the past month. Keeping that issue under control will be crucial.
Championship Blueprint: Don't change anything. The Blue Devils were getting open looks from three-point range against Syracuse, but it just wasn't meant to be, as they finished 5-of-26 from downtown. But Villanova had a similar nightmarish performance (4-of-18) in the 2016 Elite Eight en route to its national championship. Such is life sometimes when trying to throw a ball into a hoop from 22 or more feet away, and it's no reason to abandon ship.
Assuming the zone continues to fluster opponents and the deep supply of massive frontcourt players continues grabbing offensive rebounds, Duke should be in great shape.
1. Villanova Wildcats
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What We've Learned: This year, the tournament three-pointers are falling for Villanova. When the Wildcats lost to Wisconsin in the second round last year, they shot just 5-of-16 (31.3 percent) from three-point range. In the 2015 second-round loss to North Carolina State, it was a similar story at 9-of-28 (32.1 percent).
Thus far in the 2018 Big Dance, they have made at least 13 triples in each game. Collectively, they are shooting 47.8 percent from distance. And here's the silly part: One of their best shooters is in a funk. Phil Booth is a 38.1 percent career shooter, but he has missed all four of his attempts in the last two games. Villanova already seems unstoppable from the perimeter, but it could be even better.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Jalen Brunson. Omari Spellman was the highlight hero in the Sweet 16 win over West Virginia, but Brunson has been efficiently running the show, per usual. He didn't need to score much in the first two games, but he rose to the challenge early against Press Virginia, finishing with 27 points, four assists and just three turnovers, despite the relentless pressure.
X-Factor: Donte DiVincenzo. For most of the season, the redshirt sophomore has been arguably the third-most valuable player on the roster behind Brunson and Mikal Bridges. But when he's having an off night, it can really snowball. Between the losses to St. John's and Providence, the overtime game against Seton Hall and the Sweet 16 battle with West Virginia, DiVincenzo shot a combined 2-of-19 from three-point range with 18 turnovers committed. If he can avoid another performance like that in the next three rounds, Villanova should keep winning.
Championship Blueprint: Stay hot from three and continue to defend at a high level. Not only is Villanova canning its triples on a regular basis, but all three tournament opponents have also shot worse than 42 percent from the field and worse than 34 percent from three-point range. Even with 10 steals and 16 offensive rebounds, West Virginia was unable to stay within single digits in the final margin. It's going to take one heck of a Herculean effort to beat this team the way it is playing right now.
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