NCAA Tournament 2018: Stock Watch for Bubble Teams with 1 Month Left
Trying to forecast what will happen on the men's college basketball NCAA tournament bubble is even harder than trying to predict the weather, as evidenced by the Washington Huskies surging into the projected field and the Arizona State Sun Devils nearly falling out of it in the past few weeks.
In addition to those Pac-12 programs, there are quite a few bubble teams that have been rapidly trending in one direction or the other as a result of their last five games.
For a team to qualify as "on the bubble," it cannot be seeded higher than No. 8 in the latest Bracket Matrix update, but it must have been a projected tournament team on at least one of those brackets. That criteria left a pool of approximately 35 candidates, from which five teams on the rise and five teams falling apart were chosen.
With just one month remaining until Selection Sunday, which teams are playing like they want to dance?
Stock Up: Washington Huskies
1 of 10
Last Five Games
L 70-62 at Utah
W 72-62 at Colorado
W 80-62 vs. Washington State
W 68-64 vs. Arizona State
W 78-75 vs. Arizona
Resume: 17-6, RPI: 35, KP: 89, SOS: 38
Of all the massive surprises in the 2017-18 season, the biggest might be Washington becoming a clear-cut candidate for an at-large bid.
Nothing was expected from this team. The Huskies went 9-22 last season and lost the best offensive piece (Markelle Fultz) and best defensive piece (Malik Dime) from that roster. The move from Lorenzo Romar to Mike Hopkins at head coach was widely regarded as a good long-term decision, but no one thought Hopkins was going to come in and immediately turn the program around as a first-time head coach. It's why Washington was projected to finish in 10th place in the preseason Pac-12 media poll.
Lo and behold, the Huskies might be the second-best team in the league following back-to-back wins over the Arizona schools. Coupled with previous road wins over Kansas and USC, Washington now has a rock-solid tournament resume, even if Ken Pomeroy's ratings don't agree that this is one of the 40 best teams in the nation.
Don't stress over that portion of the data, though. All that tells us is that Washington hasn't blown out many opponents and occasionally gets smoked. And you don't need an annual subscription to KenPom to know that. The Huskies have played in four games this season decided by at least 20 points, and they were on the wrong end of three of those outcomes.
Thus, the rankings based on margin of victory aren't showing much love for a team with four Group 1 wins and only one Group 3 or 4 loss—a home game against Stanford, which any rational person can tell you was not a bad loss.
The Huskies don't play any more regular-season games against Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA or USC, which means they should win at least six of their eight remaining games. Do that and they'll be in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2011.
Stock Down: Louisville Cardinals
2 of 10
Last Five Games
L 78-75 (OT) at Miami
W 96-77 vs. Wake Forest
L 74-64 at Virginia
L 80-76 vs. Florida State
L 78-73 vs. Syracuse
Resume: 16-8, RPI: 42, KP: 37, SOS: 24
Louisville's tournament resume is evaporating before our eyes, one close loss against a quality opponent at a time.
Save for getting blown out by Kentucky in that annual rivalry game, the Cardinals have been right there in every game this season. Two of their eight losses came in overtime. Three others were decided by five points or fewer. And even in the less close road losses to likely No. 1 seeds Purdue and Virginia, they were within two possessions in the final five minutes before the superior team pulled away. What's more, each of those eight losses came to a team currently in the RPI top 45.
That would all be fine if there were quality wins to fall back on, but there aren't. Louisville only has one Group 1 win, and that was a road game against a Florida State team that's arguably looking at a No. 8 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Cardinals also only have two Group 2 wins, which came against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame. Neither of those teams is projected to make the tournament, and all three of those wins came in a span of seven days.
While none of the four losses suffered in the past five games was particularly damning, the collection of losses in the past two-plus weeks has put the Cardinals in serious bubble trouble.
They do still host North Carolina and Virginia and play a road game against Duke, but an 0-3 record in those games would leave the Cardinals with some work to do in the ACC tournament.
Stock Up: Temple Owls
3 of 10
Last Five Games
L 75-42 at Cincinnati
W 85-57 vs. Connecticut
W 81-79 (OT) vs. Wichita State
W 83-76 at Tulane
W 90-73 vs. East Carolina
Resume: 14-10, RPI: 34, KP: 86, SOS: 3
I've been saying for months that Temple has one of the weirdest tournament resumes ever, and that's still the truth. The only difference now is that it's a bizarre resume that might actually be worthy of a bid.
One month ago, Temple was 7-8 with outstanding wins over Auburn and Clemson and respectable wins over Old Dominion, South Carolina and Wisconsin. The Owls also had horrendous losses to George Washington, Tulane, La Salle and UCF. At one point, they were 4-0 against the KenPom top 75 and 0-2 against teams outside the KenPom top 135. Just no telling what you're going to get from this team from one game to the next.
In the past 30 days, though, the Owls are 7-2 with a pair of quality wins over Wichita State and SMU. Sure, one of the losses (versus Memphis) was less than ideal, but there's no denying that this team is trending in the right direction.
The number of total losses is concerning, but bear in mind Vanderbilt (comfortably) made the NCAA tournament last year with 15 losses. Those Commodores didn't have some of the ugly losses that these Owls have, but it's worth mentioning that the selection committee has shown itself willing to overlook quite a few L's when a team faces one of the toughest schedules in the nation.
A 4-2 record the rest of the way might be enough, but the Owls do play four road games and a tough one at home against Houston. In other words, it won't be easy.
Stock Down: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
4 of 10
Last Five Games
W 77-69 vs. UAB
L 66-62 vs. Middle Tennessee
W 85-74 vs. Marshall
W 72-60 at UTEP
L 74-63 at UTSA
Resume: 15-7, RPI: 50, KP: 55, SOS: 64
The demands we make of mid-major teams simply aren't fair.
A team like Kansas State can do absolutely nothing in nonconference play, go .500 in conference play and still sneak into the tournament if at least one or two of those Big 12 wins came against a top-three team in the league. But for a team like Western Kentucky, the requirement is to schedule aggressively for the first seven weeks of the season, win a couple of those games and then not screw up once in conference play.
The Hilltoppers certainly took care of the first half of that request. By playing in the Battle 4 Atlantis, they ended up with a close loss to Villanova before beating Purdue and SMU on a neutral floor. Western Kentucky also put together an overall nonconference schedule that was light on cupcakes, only facing two opponents outside the RPI top 200.
WKU was unable to hold up the second half of that bargain, though, suffering a brutal loss to UTSA this past Saturday.
This team now has five Group 3 losses and little in the win column outside of those two games against the Boilermakers and the Mustangs. The Hilltoppers do still have a road game against Middle Tennessee on March 1. A win there would be a huge boost. But they also need to win every other game left on their regular-season schedule to avoid adding yet another bad loss. But even an 8-0 finish might not be enough for a bid here.
Stock Up: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
5 of 10
Last Five Games
W 66-62 at Western Kentucky
W 75-51 vs. UTSA
W 81-50 vs. UTEP
W 66-59 at Old Dominion
W 78-73 at Charlotte
Resume: 17-5, RPI: 21, KP: 43, SOS: 63
Just like Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee put together an impressive nonconference schedule. Save for the season opener against non-D-I school Trevecca Nazarene, every opponent the Blue Raiders faced prior to January currently resides in the RPI top 200. Even though they came up just short in their big opportunities—Auburn, Miami and USC—they entered C-USA play with a strong resume.
Also like Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee's charge for the final two months was: Just don't blow it.
Thus far, the Blue Raiders have delivered.
They did lose one conference game at Marshall, but that's a forgivable slip-up, as the Thundering Herd rank in the top 150 in both RPI and KenPom. Granted, it's not a great loss. However, half of this conference is outside the top 175 in both metrics. If you're going to take a loss in league play, that's one of the best spots to do it.
Aside from that, MTSU is a perfect 10-0 since Christmas, including three nice road wins over Western Kentucky, Old Dominion and UAB—the other three KenPom top-100 teams in C-USA. The Blue Raiders only have seven games remaining, five of which will be played at home in Murfreesboro. A 6-1 finish should be more than enough to reach the Big Dance, provided that one loss doesn't come at home against Rice (3-18) on Thursday.
Stock Down: Arizona State Sun Devils
6 of 10
Last Five Games
W 81-73 at California
L 80-77 (OT) vs. Utah
W 80-66 vs. Colorado
L 68-64 at Washington
W 88-78 at Washington State
Resume: 17-6, RPI: 44, KP: 32, SOS: 74
Were it just these five games, things wouldn't feel so dire for Arizona State. A road loss to the hottest team in the country and an overtime loss to a team in the top 75 in both RPI and KenPom are hardly the end of the world.
But taken in conjunction with the five games before that—which included losses to Colorado, Oregon and Stanford—everyone has been selling their stock in Arizona State for pennies on the dollar.
Those losses in the first three weeks of January were what set the stage for the fall from grace. We gave the Sun Devils a few mulligans because of the quality nonconference wins against Xavier, Kansas and Kansas State. But falling to 4-6 (currently 5-6) in the Pac-12—widely regarded as the worst major conference this season—was a bridge too far.
That conference record is even more disturbing when you look at the schedule and realize Arizona State has only played one game thus far against a Pac-12 team projected to make the NCAA tournament.
The Sun Devils looked like a potential No. 1 seed six weeks ago, but they might need to win two of the three games on their upcoming homestand (USC, UCLA, Arizona) to remain on the correct side of the bubble.
Stock Up: Nebraska Cornhuskers
7 of 10
Last Five Games
L 64-59 at Ohio State
W 60-54 at Rutgers
W 98-84 vs. Iowa
W 74-63 at Wisconsin
W 91-85 at Minnesota
Resume: 18-8, RPI: 54, KP: 57, SOS: 93
Let's start by noting that "stock up" doesn't mean Nebraska belongs in the projected field.
The 9-4 record in Big Ten play looks nice and would normally be grounds for a bid. However, the imbalanced schedule includes double-dips against Rutgers, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Penn State. A home win over Michigan is the only one the Cornhuskers have against a projected tournament team. And without any games remaining against Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State or Purdue, they're going to finish the regular season with just one quality win.
Fans of Nebraska and the Big Ten don't want to accept this, but the Cornhuskers could go 14-4 in conference play and still end up in the NIT unless they score at least one big win in the Big Ten tournament.
This team is in the bubble conversation, though, which is more than could be said before their current four-game winning streak.
And despite all the griping about the weak resume, Nebraska is fun to watch and probably would put up a great fight if it got an invite to the Big Dance. The Cornhuskers almost won at Ohio State a few weeks ago, and they were oh-so-close to a monumental win over Kansas back in mid-December. Had the last two minutes in either of those games gone the opposite way, we'd be singing a very different tune about this team's tournament hopes.
Stock Down: South Carolina Gamecocks
8 of 10
Last Five Games
W 77-72 at Florida
L 70-63 vs. Texas Tech
L 81-76 vs. Mississippi State
L 83-60 at Texas A&M
L 81-65 at Arkansas
Resume: 12-11, RPI: 64, KP: 83, SOS: 29
There's a strong case to be made that South Carolina is no longer even in the bubble conversation, but the Gamecocks were our last team in the projected field less than two weeks ago. If they are gone for good, they at least deserve a eulogy.
Mid-January was fantastic for this program. In a span of four games, it won on the road against Georgia and Florida, had an incredible comeback win at home over Kentucky and gave Tennessee a run for its money before falling just short.
But South Carolina has not done a darn thing outside of that 12-day window.
For the rest of the season, it is 0-7 in Group 1 games and 2-10 against Groups 1 and 2. Moreover, those two wins (versus Wyoming and at Wofford) just barely qualify as Group 2 and may well be Group 3 games by the end of the day. And it has been playing its worst basketball in the past 10 days, getting blown out by the bubbly Aggies and Razorbacks and losing at home to a Mississippi State team that probably won't reach the NCAA tournament.
The good news is there's always opportunity in the SEC. For as bad as the last 10 days have been, the Gamecocks could come soaring back into the field in the next 10 days with games against Florida, Tennessee and Auburn. At this point, though, the biggest problem is the sheer number of losses. Even though they don't have a single loss to a team outside the RPI top 100, they need to go at least 5-2 the rest of the way to have a reasonable case for a bid.
Stock Up: Virginia Tech Hokies
9 of 10
Last Five Games (VT)
W 80-69 vs. North Carolina
W 80-75 at Notre Dame
W 85-80 (OT) at Boston College
L 84-75 vs. Miami
W 85-75 vs. North Carolina State
Resume: 17-7, RPI: 68, KP: 42, SOS: 95
On Jan. 21, it would have been absurd to suggest that Virginia Tech belongs in the NCAA tournament.
At that point in time, the Hokies were 13-6 overall and 2-4 in ACC play. The conference wins were against Pittsburgh and Wake Forest, which are the two worst teams in the league. Their best nonconference win is now clearly the neutral-court game against Washington, but that didn't look anywhere near as strong three weeks ago as it does today.
It's a different story now, since four of their five best wins of the season have come in their last five games.
There's still plenty of work to be done, though. VT's nonconference SOS (299) is atrocious, and even though they count as some of this team's best wins, beating the likes of Boston College, Notre Dame and NC State isn't going to carry much water with the selection committee.
For better or worse, there is an ocean of opportunity ahead. Virginia Tech's next two games are at Virginia and at Duke. After a third straight road game (Georgia Tech), the Hokies finish the season with three home games against Clemson, Louisville and Duke and a road game against Miami. To borrow a phrase from Jon Rothstein, that is the epitome of brutality.
Against that schedule, a 3-4 finish would put the Hokies in great shape heading into the ACC tournament. Anything less, and they'll need to make up for lost time in the ACC tourney.
Stock Down: Marquette Golden Eagles
10 of 10
Last Five Games
L 89-70 at Xavier
L 85-82 vs. Villanova
L 92-72 vs. Butler
L 77-75 vs. Providence
W 88-85 at Seton Hall
Resume: 14-10, RPI: 61, KP: 50, SOS: 10
If Marquette can get into the NCAA tournament, it's going to be one of the most dangerous teams in the field. Both Markus Howard and Andrew Rowsey are a threat to score 35 points on any given night, and Sam Hauser is one heck of a shooter in his own right. The Golden Eagles don't have a fourth reliable scorer and they don't play any defense, but they would not be an easy team to eliminate.
The problem is the "If" at the beginning of that paragraph is growing larger by the day—though Wednesday night's road win over Seton Hall was huge.
Marquette's resume looked great in early January when it was 12-5 and fresh off quality wins over Providence and Seton Hall, but it went 1-6 in the seven games after that nice start with the lone victory coming in a home game against DePaul.
The good news is there aren't any bad losses in the bunch. Georgia (RPI: 60) was the only loss against a team that currently resides outside the RPI top 35, and even that one is no big deal if Marquette can finish strong against the likes of St. John's, Georgetown and DePaul to enter the Big East tournament with an 18-12 record.
Anything less than a 4-2 finish likely wouldn't be enough, though, which means this team may need to win at least one of its two remaining games against Creighton. We wish the Golden Eagles the best of luck in those races to 95 points.
Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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