2017 NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68

The reigning national champion Villanova Wildcats are the projected No. 1 overall seed for the NCAA tournament with less than two months remaining in the 2016-17 men's college basketball season. Joining Villanova on the top line are Kansas, Kentucky and...Florida State?

You read that right. Much was made of Baylor's rise from no votes in the preseason AP Top 25 all the way to No. 1 in that poll, but no one thought the Seminoles would be the best team in the ACC at any point in this season.

It has been four weeks since our last NCAA tournament projection—it'll likely be coming on at least a weekly basis for the rest of the regular season—and a ton has changed in that time. In the Big Ten alone, Michigan went from a No. 8 seed to completely out of the field, Indiana went from a No. 2 seed to the bubble, and both Minnesota and Illinois have come out of nowhere to reside comfortably in the field.

Hate on RPI all you want, but it's still the primary metric the NCAA selection committee uses in selecting and seeding the field. KenPom.com rankings and strength of schedule were also crucial pieces of this projection, but prepare yourself for many mentions of how teams have fared against the teams in varying ranges of RPI ranks.

As always, we'll take a look at the last five teams to make the field, the first five out and a few on the horizon.

After that, we'll present each seeded region, including the subregional locations in which each pod would be played and some commentary on which teams have moved the most in each region. Then we'll defend the rankings of the No. 1 seeds, followed by a summary of the entire field broken up by conference.

Last 5 In

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Georgia is no stranger to the January bubble.

Last Team In: Arkansas Razorbacks (12-4, RPI: 44, KP: 54, SOS: 39)

This resume looked solid when the only losses were at Minnesota, at Kentucky and versus Florida—each of which is in the RPI top 10. Now that the Razorbacks have a home loss to Mississippi State, though, they're in trouble. Nonconference wins over Texas-Arlington, Fort Wayne, North Dakota State and Houston should help keep them afloat, but their only chances left at quality wins are road games against Florida, South Carolina and Oklahoma State—and that last one might not be such a quality win if the Cowboys keep losing all of their Big 12 games.

Second-to-Last: Georgia Bulldogs (11-5, RPI: 38, KP: 49, SOS: 21)

Georgia has a couple of decent wins (at Ole Miss, at Auburn, versus UNC-Asheville) and no bad losses. The Bulldogs will need to eventually beat some quality opponents, but the resume is somehow good enough for now. If that sounds familiar, getting into mid-January with one of the most nondescript resumes in the country has become something of an annual rite of passage for this program. The five remaining games against Kentucky (two), Florida (two) and South Carolina will dictate whether the Bulldogs sink or swim.

Third-to-Last: Marquette Golden Eagles (11-5, RPI: 66, KP: 38, SOS: 68)

The Golden Eagles sneak into the field after eking out an overtime win over Seton Hall Wednesday night. But they're going to need a couple more quality wins to remain in the projected field. After Saturday's home game against DePaul, Marquette will play three in a row against Butler, Creighton and Villanova. It's now or never.

Fourth-to-Last: Kansas State Wildcats (13-3, RPI: 51, KP: 28, SOS: 142)

Kansas State conned its way into this week's AP Top 25 with an impressive showing at Kansas, but did you know this team's best win of the season was a home game against Nebraska-Omaha (RPI: 110)? The Wildcats are 0-3 against the RPI top 100, and the aforementioned win over the 8-9 Mavericks is their only win in the RPI top 130.

Fifth-to-Last: Wichita State Shockers (15-3, RPI: 84, KP: 25, SOS: 232)

Technically, the Shockers are our projected Missouri Valley Conference champions and, as an auto bid, shouldn't be on this slide. However, it bears mentioning they are not in good shape should an at-large bid become necessary for them. They went 0-3 in nonconference play against the RPI top 100, and their only remaining opponent in the RPI top 140 is Illinois State. And that strength of schedule is downright hideous.

First 5 Out

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Will Miami start beating quality teams in ACC play?

First Team Out: Miami Hurricanes (11-4, RPI: 69, KP: 35, SOS: 172)

The SOS will inevitably recover after a few more weeks of facing ACC opponents, but have you looked at Miami's nonconference schedule? The best win was either a neutral-court game against Stanford or a home game against George Washington, neither of which can touch the bubble with a 10-foot pole. Fortunately, the 'Canes didn't suffer any bad nonconference losses, but they probably need to go at least 10-8 in ACC play to make a tournament-worthy resume.

Second Team Out: California Golden Bears (12-5, RPI: 62, KP: 44, SOS: 44)

California's bid might come down to how the selection committee views its 12-point loss to San Diego State—played without Jabari Bird and with Ivan Rabb and Grant Mullins returning from injury. That's the only eyesore on this resume. If it can be discounted, that's great for the Golden Bears. They still need to score some quality wins, though. The road victory over USC last weekend was a good start, but it's not quite enough.

Third Team Out: North Carolina State Wolfpack (12-5, RPI: 37, KP: 65, SOS: 34)

Despite the 51-point loss to North Carolina on Sunday, we were prepared to project the Wolfpack for a No. 10 seed. Then they lost to Boston College, continuing their apparent quest to become the worst road team in the country. In the past month, N.C. State has averaged 97.6 points per game at home and 61.7 on the road. And the next three road games for this team are at Duke, Louisville and Florida State, so don't expect those splits to get any better.

Fourth Team Out: Temple Owls (10-8, RPI: 53, KP: 97, SOS: 14)

Like North Carolina State, Temple would have been in the projected field 30 hours ago, prior to taking yet another bad road loss. Yes, the Owls have a ton of L's, including a few ugly ones. But I dare you to find a team with two better wins than Temple's neutral-court victories over Florida State and West Virginia. A 1-4 record in the American Athletic Conference is a bad look, but Temple has already played three of the six toughest games on its conference schedule. If the Owls can turn things around to finish the season at 21-10, those nonconference victories will go a long way.

Fifth Team Out: Rhode Island Rams (10-6, RPI: 46, KP: 33, SOS: 38)

Close road losses to Valparaiso, Providence and Houston already look worse now than they did at the time, and they're likely only going to get uglier as the season progresses. Home games against Dayton and VCU in February appear to be Rhode Island's only hope of balancing the scales. The Rams look OK for now, but in a down year for the Atlantic 10, they may need to go at least 13-1 the rest of the way in order to stay in the picture.

On the Horizon

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Nebraska is knocking on the door of the NCAA tournament bubble.

Because 73 teams isn't nearly enough, here are nine other resumes that were at least temporarily considered for a spot in the projected field.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-7, RPI: 52, KP: 87, SOS: 6)

One of just two teams with at least two RPI top 50 wins that didn't make the cut (the other is Georgia Tech), Nebraska has a better resume than you probably realize. The Cornhuskers have an ugly home loss to Gardner-Webb, but that's their only loss of the season that can be considered even a little bad. They also have wins away from home against Dayton, Indiana and Maryland. The 6-6 nonconference record put them in a tough spot, but there's a chance this team could dance if it can get to 11-7 in Big Ten play (currently 3-1).

Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-6, RPI: 59, KP: 34, SOS: 36)

Once one of the best turnover-forcing defenses in the country, Oklahoma State is 0-4 in Big 12 play and has yet to record more than four steals against a conference foe. Jawun Evans still doesn't look right, and the Cowboys will continue to struggle until he does.

Michigan Wolverines (11-6, RPI: 88, KP: 47, SOS: 75)

Those neutral-court wins over Marquette and SMU feel like a lifetime ago. Since their 4-0 start, the Wolverines have lost six times while scoring nothing better than home wins over Penn State and Texas. Even if they bounce back from a 1-3 start to finish 9-9 in Big Ten play, it might not be enough.

Illinois State Redbirds (13-4, RPI: 42, KP: 51, SOS: 79)

Losses to Murray State, Tulsa and San Francisco likely doom the Redbirds to "auto bid or bust" territory—particularly once six more weeks of Missouri Valley Conference play sends their SOS down the drain—but that won't stop anyone from talking up this team's NCAA tournament potential if it wins Saturday's home game against Wichita State.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (10-7, RPI: 33, KP: 43, SOS: 7)
Ole Miss Rebels (10-6, RPI: 50, KP: 95, SOS: 13)

These two squads have great SOS ranks and respectable RPI ranks, but when are they going to beat someone of value? They're a combined 20-0 against teams outside the RPI top 50 and a combined 0-13 against RPI top 50 teams. The dearth of bad losses leaves each team one or two great wins away from getting into the conversation, but it doesn't look like those wins will ever come.

Houston Cougars (13-4, RPI: 61, KP: 37, SOS: 123)
UCF Knights (12-4, RPI: 80, KP: 81, SOS: 170)
Memphis Tigers (12-5, RPI: 119, KP: 71, SOS: 200)

These AAC teams have nice records, but their overall resumes are unattractive. The best wins of the bunch are home games against South Carolina (by Memphis) and Rhode Island (by Houston), and opportunities for quality wins in conference play are few and far between. Unless one of these teams can finish the regular season with seven or fewer losses, it's probably not going to happen.

East Region (New York City)

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Illinois is in for now, but is any team in the Big Ten safe?

Buffalo, New York

No. 1 Villanova (16-1, RPI: 1, KP: 3, SOS: 4)
No. 16 UC Irvine (Big West Auto Bid)

No. 8 Illinois (12-5, RPI: 40, KP: 62, SOS: 20)
No. 9 Virginia Tech (13-3, RPI: 45, KP: 41, SOS: 96)

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

No. 4 Virginia (12-3, RPI: 17, KP: 4, SOS: 18)
No. 13 Oakland (Horizon Auto Bid)

No. 5 Arizona (16-2, RPI: 15, KP: 17, SOS: 32)
No. 12 Marquette / Arkansas (Last Five In)

Greenville, South Carolina

No. 3 Duke (14-3, RPI: 13, KP: 9, SOS: 17)
No. 14 Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun Auto Bid)

No. 6 Saint Mary's (15-1, RPI: 20, KP: 20, SOS: 86)
No. 11 Wichita State (Last Five In)

Buffalo, New York

No. 2 West Virginia (14-2, RPI: 22, KP: 2, SOS: 74)
No. 15 Princeton (Ivy Auto Bid)

No. 7 Minnesota (15-3, RPI: 10, KP: 36, SOS: 10)
No. 10 USC (15-3, RPI: 27, KP: 52, SOS: 85)

Stock Up: Illinois Fighting Illini (New to the Field)

Illinois doesn't have any great wins. A neutral-court victory over VCU is as good as it gets. But the Fighting Illini have been stockpiling decent home wins (Michigan, N.C. State, Ohio State, BYU) in the process of putting together a tournament-worthy resume.

That's the case for a lot of Big Ten teams right now, though. Between Minnesota, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Maryland, there's not a single nonconference win over a team that's comfortably in the projected field.

For 75 percent of the Big Ten teams in this bracket, the best thing they have done is avoid horrible losses. It will be interesting to see if the league can continue walking that tightrope to its usual quota of seven bids, but it wouldn't be terribly surprising if this ends up being a five-bid league.

To be one of those teams, Illinois is going to need to start winning games against those teams, beginning with Saturday's home game against Maryland. It's in a position where a 9-5 record the rest of the way might be good enough.

Stock Down: Duke Blue Devils (Down Nine Spots)

To put it lightly, things have not gone according to plan for the Blue Devils. Luke Kennard has been great, but that's about it. And they're lucky that neutral-court win over Florida looks so great for RPI and SOS purposes. Otherwise, they would have dropped at least one seed line lower than this.

Aside from that win over the Gators, Duke's only remotely quality wins of the season have come against Michigan State and Rhode Island. And since the last bracket update, the Blue Devils have gone 0-2 against the RPI top 100, getting smoked by both Virginia Tech and Florida State.

It'll take a lot more than that before anyone considers mentioning "Duke" and "bubble" in the same sentence, but the team will fall to sixth in the ACC's NCAA tournament pecking order if it loses at Louisville on Saturday.

Holding Steady: Virginia Tech Hokies (Up Two Spots)

There were a number of noteworthy games involving Virginia Tech in the past month, but the net change was almost nil.

As just mentioned, the Hokies comfortably took care of business against Duke, subsequently soaring into the AP poll and looking great with a 12-1 record. However, they responded to that win with consecutive blowout losses at N.C. State and Florida State, putting them roughly back where they started conference play.

Save for the two games against Boston College and the home games against Georgia Tech and Wake Forest, everything left on VT's schedule qualifies as a significant opportunity. Should the Hokies win those four games in the process of getting to 8-10 in ACC play, it would mean a 19-11 overall record with at least three quality wins and no bad losses. That might do the trick this year.

Midwest Region (Kansas City)

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Semi Ojeleye and the Mustangs have been trending in the right direction for weeks.

Tulsa, Oklahoma

No. 1 Kansas (15-1, RPI: 4, KP: 5, SOS: 22)
No. 16 Texas Southern (SWAC Auto Bid)

No. 8 South Carolina (12-3, RPI: 32, KP: 31, SOS: 49)
No. 9 Pittsburgh (12-5, RPI: 26, KP: 50, SOS: 16)

Sacramento, California

No. 4 Oregon (14-2, RPI: 11, KP: 21, SOS: 23)
No. 13 Monmouth (MAAC Auto Bid)

No. 5 Purdue (14-4, RPI: 31, KP: 14, SOS: 46)
No. 12 Nevada (Mountain West Auto Bid)

Greenville, South Carolina

No. 3 North Carolina (15-3, RPI: 16, KP: 6, SOS: 33)
No. 14 UNC-Asheville (Big South Auto Bid)

No. 6 SMU (14-4, RPI: 34, KP: 27, SOS: 77)
No. 11 Georgia / Kansas State (Last Five In)

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

No. 2 Creighton (16-1, RPI: 5, KP: 19, SOS: 19)
No. 15 Fort Wayne (Summit Auto Bid)

No. 7 Michigan State (12-6, RPI: 25, KP: 42, SOS: 5)
No. 10 TCU (13-3, RPI: 29, KP: 32, SOS: 51)

Stock Up: SMU Mustangs (Up 20 Spots)

The Mustangs couldn't quite pick up the big road win over Cincinnati Thursday night, but the Bearcats haven't lost a home game since December 2015. They had won their last 17 games at Fifth Third Arena by an average margin of 21.2 points. It happens.

Prior to that game, though, the Mustangs had won 10 in a row, including a home win over TCU that has more value than any win over TCU has had in the past decade.

Former Duke transfer Semi Ojeleye has been phenomenal in his new home, averaging 18.6 points and 7.8 rebounds since Dec. 7. Along with Ben Moore and Jarrey Foster, he has been the driving force of a Mustangs team that entered Thursday leading the nation in offensive rebounding percentage.

Stock Down: South Carolina Gamecocks (Down Nine Spots)

Welcome to the annual dilemma of what to do about a team that played a significant portion of its season without a key player.

Sindarius Thornwell was suspended for six games in December, during which the Gamecocks went 0-3 against RPI top 280 teams, losing to Seton Hall, Clemson and Memphis. Will those losses be discounted because he didn't play, or are they taken at full value since it was a suspension instead of an injury?

They're undefeated with Thornwell on the court and should be a tough team to beat the rest of the way, but their "signature" wins over Michigan and Syracuse back in late November barely even qualify as quality wins anymore. Next week's battles with Florida and Kentucky loom large.

Holding Steady: Michigan State Spartans (Up Two Spots)

The Spartans did score a pair of wins over Minnesota, which look great with the Golden Gophers sitting at No. 10 in RPI. But in the past month, Michigan State also lost a home game against Northeastern and lost to Penn State in Philadelphia.

If those wins over Minnesota are still RPI top 25 wins on Selection Sunday, good for MSU. If the Golden Gophers taper off in the second half of the season, though, this team still has a lot of work to do.

Keep in mind that the Spartans went 8-5 in nonconference play with little more than wins over Wichita State, Oakland and Florida Gulf Coast. A 4-1 record in Big Ten play is a great start, but 11-7 with at least one win over Purdue or Wisconsin is the minimum goal for a bid.

South Region (Memphis)

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JeQuan Lewis and VCU are one of five new teams in this projected field.

Indianapolis, Indiana

No. 1 Kentucky (14-2, RPI: 6, KP: 1, SOS: 9)
No. 16 New Orleans/Eastern Washington (First Four)

No. 8 Seton Hall (12-4, RPI: 39, KP: 48, SOS: 55)
No. 9 Clemson (11-5, RPI: 36, KP: 23, SOS: 30)

Orlando, Florida

No. 4 Louisville (14-3, RPI: 8, KP: 10, SOS: 3)
No. 13 Chattanooga (SoCon Auto Bid)

No. 5 Xavier (13-3, RPI: 14, KP: 24, SOS: 24)
No. 12 UNC-Wilmington (CAA Auto Bid)

Indianapolis, Indiana

No. 3 Butler (14-3, RPI: 9, KP: 18, SOS: 15)
No. 14 Vermont (America East Auto Bid)

No. 6 Wisconsin (14-3, RPI: 48, KP: 11, SOS: 132)
No. 11 VCU (14-3, RPI: 28, KP: 46, SOS: 48)

Tulsa, Oklahoma

No. 2 Baylor (15-1, RPI: 2, KP: 8, SOS: 12)
No. 15 Belmont (Ohio Valley Auto Bid)

No. 7 Northwestern (14-4, RPI: 47, KP: 40, SOS: 64)
No. 10 Middle Tennessee (14-3, RPI: 21, KP: 60, SOS: 40)

Stock Up: VCU Rams (New to the Field)

VCU is one of maybe a dozen teams that haven't suffered a loss in the past month.

The schedule hasn't been daunting by any means—a home game against MTSU was the only legitimate challenge—but we're talking about a team that was blown out on a neutral court by Illinois before losing a home game to Georgia Tech. After four weeks of play, there was little to suggest this team could string together eight consecutive wins, regardless of the level of competition.

JeQuan Lewis has been the main cog in the Rams' machine, but contributions have been coming from everywhere. Jonathan Williams has at least 11 points and four assists in five straight games. Mo Alie-Cox has been a force in the paint, per usual. Doug Brooks has been a ball hawk on defense, also per usual. Even Samir Doughty blew up for 23 points, nine assists and seven rebounds in a close road win over Duquesne.

The resume still isn't stellar, but wins always help. Getting another one this Saturday at Davidson would be a nice boost.

Stock Down: Wisconsin Badgers (Down Nine Spots)

This probably feels harsh just a few hours after the Badgers smashed Ohio State by a 23-point margin, but Wisconsin entered the day barely inside the RPI top 50 without a single win over that group.

The Badgers had a few marquee opportunities against Creighton, North Carolina and Purdue but lost each of those games by a double-digit margin. Moreover, since our last update, they added their fifth RPI sub-250 win of the season, with that victory over Florida A&M (RPI: 348) serving as the worst of all.

This isn't to say they're on the bubble. They don't have a single bad loss, and the wins over Marquette, Indiana, Syracuse and perhaps Oklahoma are going to look better as the season progresses. But Wisconsin's resume is far from special.

Holding Steady: Louisville Cardinals (No Change)

Despite wins over Kentucky and Indiana, Louisville's computer profile hasn't changed much at all. The Cardinals were No. 8 in RPI and No. 8 on KenPom heading into the bluegrass battle; now they're No. 8 and No. 10, respectively.

Evidently, the losses to Virginia and Notre Dame—and the Indiana win looking less valuable by the day—were what it took to keep the status quo.

Give it another 10 days, though, and the Cards may be in the running for a No. 1 seed. They already have three RPI top 40 wins and could double that in their next three games—versus Duke, versus Clemson and at Florida State.

West Region (San Jose)

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Kasey Hill and the Florida Gators have one of the best computer profiles in the nation.

Orlando, Florida

No. 1 Florida State (16-1, RPI: 7, KP: 15, SOS: 25)
No. 16 LIU-Brooklyn/N.C. Central (First Four)

No. 8 Texas Tech (13-3, RPI: 49, KP: 30, SOS: 116)
No. 9 Dayton (12-4, RPI: 35, KP: 39, SOS: 27)

Salt Lake City, Utah

No. 4 Florida (13-3, RPI: 3, KP: 12, SOS: 2)
No. 13 Akron (MAC Auto Bid)

No. 5 Notre Dame (15-2, RPI: 23, KP: 26, SOS: 60)
No. 12 Texas-Arlington (Sun Belt Auto Bid)

Sacramento, California

No. 3 UCLA (17-1, RPI: 19, KP: 13, SOS: 114)
No. 14 Bucknell (Patriot Auto Bid)

No. 6 Cincinnati (14-2, RPI: 18, KP: 16, SOS: 54)
No. 11 Indiana (11-6, RPI: 96, KP: 29, SOS: 65)

Salt Lake City, Utah

No. 2 Gonzaga (16-0, RPI: 12, KP: 7, SOS: 72)
No. 15 New Mexico State (WAC Auto Bid)

No. 7 Maryland (15-2, RPI: 30, KP: 55, SOS: 58)
No. 10 Iowa State (11-4, RPI: 54, KP: 22, SOS: 66)

Stock Up: Florida Gators (Up 10 Spots)

Thanks to renovations to the Exactech Arena at the Stephen O'Connell Center, Florida beat the RPI system by not playing a true home game until late December. The Gators played only one nonconference game outside the state of Florida (Jimmy V Classic against Duke in New York City), but winning early "neutral-court" games against the likes of St. Bonaventure, Belmont and Mercer did this team's computer profile a ton of good.

The Gators haven't beaten any marquee opponents—neutral-court wins over Seton Hall and Miami are their best victories—but by not playing half a dozen terrible teams at home, their RPI and SOS ranks are off the charts. Hopefully, more major-conference programs take notice and schedule more aggressively in the future.

Stock Down: Indiana Hoosiers (Down 35 Spots)

A testament to how long it has been since our last bracket update, Indiana was a 10-1 No. 2 seed that felt like a serious threat to win it all. Since then, the Hoosiers have gone 1-5 against KenPom top 300 teams.

Save for the 15-point loss to Louisville, most of those losses came right down to the wire. And the home loss to Nebraska doesn't look nearly as bad now as it did two weeks ago. Still, this team is a turnover-committing wreck that can't get out of its own way despite solid three-point shooting and some of the best offensive rebounding in the nation.

The November wins over Kansas and North Carolina still look fantastic, but Indiana had better start winning some conference games.

Holding Steady: Dayton Flyers (Up One Spot)

Dayton was going to be one of the biggest risers in the field prior to Wednesday night's loss to Massachusetts. That one offensive nightmare (55 points in a 79-possession game) undid a lot of the good that came from wins over Vanderbilt, La Salle, St. Bonaventure and Rhode Island.

But that's simply a microcosm of where the A-10 is at this year. Even a relatively excusable loss in this conference is plenty to send a team tumbling down the national rankings. It might be a three-bid league if Dayton, Rhode Island and VCU can almost entirely avoid those kind of losses the rest of the way, but those are the only A-10 teams with any realistic at-large dreams.

Ranking the No. 1 Seeds

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Dwayne Bacon and Florida State are projected for a No. 1 seed.

No. 4: Florida State Seminoles (16-1, RPI: 7, KP: 15, SOS: 25)

It's almost impossible to imagine a scenario where the ACC doesn't get at least one No. 1 seed. Maybe it could happen if the league champion goes 13-5 before losing early in an ACC tournament that is won by a No. 5 seed or worse, but that's just about the only way. That's because the ACC champ is going to finish the season with at least a dozen RPI top 50 wins, probably 20 RPI top 100 wins and possibly the top-ranked RPI and SOS in the country.

So, with apologies to Baylor, UCLA and Gonzaga, we welcome the Seminoles to the projected top line.

Granted, this isn't the ACC champion anyone was expecting two months ago, but that doesn't change the fact that the Seminoles have two more RPI top 50 wins (seven) than any team in the country.

In less than two weeks' time, the Seminoles won a tight road game against Virginia and won home games against Duke, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, each by a margin of at least 15 points. If they can win at North Carolina on Saturday (that's a huge "if"), there will be people clamoring for the Seminoles to jump all the way to No. 1 in Monday's AP poll.

Let's put it this way: It was more tempting to put Florida State as the No. 2 overall seed than to put the Seminoles on the No. 2 seed line—particularly with UCLA and Gonzaga boasting a combined four RPI top 50 wins between them.

No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats (14-2, RPI: 6, KP: 1, SOS: 9)

Big Blue Nation got a bit of a scare at Vanderbilt Tuesday night—a product of forcing just seven turnovers and shooting 11.1 percent from three-point range. The Wildcats didn't trail at any point in the final 16 minutes, but they just couldn't seem to put the pesky Commodores away.

But they remain a projected No. 1 seed, in part because they're still beating SEC opponents by an average margin of 24.3 points.

The big variable for Kentucky is whether the computer numbers will hold up in SEC play. If the Wildcats run the table—which would include a home win over Kansas and a sweep of Florida—they would almost certainly have a resume strong enough for the No. 1 overall seed. One or two losses over the course of the next two months, though, and the SEC champ's resume likely wouldn't stack up with the other candidates for the top line.

No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks (15-1, RPI: 4, KP: 5, SOS: 22)

As if there were ever a doubt, Baylor's loss to West Virginia put Kansas back in the driver's seat for the Big 12 title and the almost-inevitable spot on the top line that comes with it.

The Jayhawks haven't beaten that many high-quality opponents. Their neutral-court win over Duke nearly two months ago is the only one against a team in either the RPI top 25 or the KenPom top 25. But they have eight RPI top 100 wins and haven't lost a game in more than two months, resulting in a resume good enough for consideration for the No. 1 overall seed.

When January turns into February, things get real for the Jayhawks. They'll play consecutive games at West Virginia, at Kentucky and versus Baylor, which could cement their status as a No. 1 seed.

No. 1 Villanova Wildcats (16-1, RPI: 1, KP: 3, SOS: 4)

The reigning national champs remain the team to beat.

The Wildcats have road wins over Purdue and Creighton, a neutral-court win over Notre Dame and an emphatic 25-point home win over Xavier. All told, they have 11 RPI top 100 wins, making them the only team in the country with more than nine.

And like Kansas and Kentucky, they have a huge nonconference opportunity yet to come when they host Virginia on Jan. 29. Unless Villanova starts dropping games to the likes of St. John's and Providence, its quest to repeat as champion should begin against a No. 16 seed.

Seeding by Conference

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EAST LANSING, MI - JANUARY 4: Miles Bridges #22 of the Michigan State Spartans celebrates his dunk in the second half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at the Breslin Center on January 4, 2017 in East Lansing, Michigan. (Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Imag

In case seeded regions aren't for you and you want to know where the "top" 68 teams stand in relation to one another, here is a list of each team's overall seed, broken down by conference. ("First Five Out" in italics.)

American: 22. Cincinnati; 24. SMU; 72. Temple

Atlantic 10: 35. Dayton; 42. VCU; 73. Rhode Island

ACC: 4. Florida State; 11. Duke; 12. North Carolina; 13. Louisville; 14. Virginia; 17. Notre Dame; 33. Pittsburgh; 34. Clemson; 36. Virginia Tech; 69. Miami; 71. N.C. State

Big 12: 2. Kansas; 5. Baylor; 7. West Virginia; 30. Texas Tech; 38. Iowa State; 39. TCU; 44. Kansas State

Big East: 1. Villanova; 8. Creighton; 10. Butler; 19. Xavier; 32. Seton Hall; 45. Marquette

Big Ten: 20. Purdue; 23. Wisconsin; 25. Maryland; 26. Michigan State; 27. Minnesota; 28. Northwestern; 31. Illinois; 41. Indiana

Pac-12: 9. UCLA; 15. Oregon; 18. Arizona; 40. USC; 70. California

SEC: 3. Kentucky; 16. Florida; 29. South Carolina; 46. Georgia; 47. Arkansas

West Coast: 6. Gonzaga; 21. Saint Mary's

Other: 37. Middle Tennessee; 43. Wichita State; 48. UNC-Wilmington; 49. Texas-Arlington; 50. Nevada; 51. Chattanooga; 52. Oakland; 53. Akron; 54. Monmouth; 55. Vermont; 56. Florida Gulf Coast; 57. UNC-Asheville; 58. Bucknell; 59. Princeton; 60. New Mexico State; 61. Belmont; 62. Fort Wayne; 63. Texas Southern; 64. UC Irvine; 65. New Orleans; 66. Eastern Washington; 67. LIU-Brooklyn; 68. North Carolina Central

Stats are courtesy of WarrenNolan.com, KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com and are current through start of play on Thursday. Recruiting information is courtesy of Scout.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.