Winners and Losers of AP College Basketball Top 25 Poll in Week 9
Complete and utter chaos in the ACC and Big Ten led to a boatload of winners and losers in college basketball's latest Associated Press Top 25.
By normal conference week standards, this was nothing out of the ordinary. Ten ranked teams suffered a combined 11 losses, compared to nine ranked teams suffering 12 losses during this week one year ago. Now that more quality foes are facing each other instead of running up the score against the Radfords and South Dakotas of the world, losses are far more common.
Compared to the previous two weeks, though, this was a jarring one. From Dec. 12-25, there was a total of six losses suffered by ranked teams, and four of those were to other ranked opponents. But in the past seven days, we saw Purdue and Indiana lose at home to Minnesota and Nebraska while Duke and North Carolina lost by double-digit margins to...Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech? What's going on here?
Even No. 1 Villanova almost messed around and lost a home game to DePaul.
Buckle up for a bumpy ride to Selection Sunday. It has only just begun.
Winner: Oregon Ducks
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It seems safe to say the stress fracture that limited Dillon Brooks early in the season is no longer an issue.
Brooks scored 51 points this week as the Ducks defeated not one, but two of the six teams that had an undefeated record seven days ago. He led all players in scoring in each of the wins over UCLA and USC. He drained the game-winning shot against the Bruins with 0.7 seconds remaining and needed only 24 minutes and 10 shots to put up 28 against the Trojans.
With Payton Pritchard coming into his own as a freshman point guard (17 points, 16 assists and three turnovers this week) and Chris Boucher looking strong in his return from a sprained ankle (20 points, 13 rebounds and five blocks between the two games), Oregon is looking like the team to beat from the Pac-12.
The Ducks are now on an 11-game winning streak and should at least extend that run to 16 with a favorable schedule for the next three weeks: at Washington, at Washington State, vs. Oregon State, vs. California, vs. Stanford. By the time they play back-to-back games against Arizona and UCLA in early February, they may well be the top-ranked team in the conference.
Thanks to two of the seven most impressive wins of the week, Oregon was the biggest riser in the AP Top 25. The Ducks soared all the way from No. 21 to 15.
Loser: UCLA Bruins
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Two months ago, Oregon was ranked No. 5 in the AP poll. One voter was even so bold as to put the Ducks at No. 1 on his ballot. They were the preseason favorites to win the Pac-12 and were picked by two of our three CBB experts to reach the 2017 Final Four. With Dillon Brooks injured, they lost at Baylor and had a slip-up against Georgetown, but they entered Pac-12 play on a nine-game winning streak and were starting to look like the team we thought they would be.
Losing on the road against that team because of a buzzer-beater is hardly an unforgivable sin.
But that's how UCLA's undefeated season came to a close and it led to the Bruins dropping two spots to No. 4.
Frankly, we didn't learn anything new about the Bruins in the loss. They're elite on offense and they're inevitably going to put together some type of Lonzo Ball-fueled run to either climb out of a hole or break their opponent's will to compete. And on defense, they make average teams look good and good teams look great. Oregon had little difficulty moving the ball and finding open looks in what turned out to be the fourth time this season an opponent had at least a 2.0 assist-to-turnover ratio against UCLA.
However, this was the most mortal the Bruins have looked to date. They have six players averaging at least 11.1 points per game, but both Isaac Hamilton and Aaron Holiday—a combined six turnovers with seven points on 16 field-goal attempts—couldn't get anything to work. As long as at least five of the six main guys are cooking, UCLA can beat anyone. That just wasn't the case against the Ducks.
Winner: Villanova Wildcats
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With Nos. 2, 5, 6 and 9 all suffering losses this week, Villanova had a chance to really separate itself from the field on the road against No. 10 Creighton.
As was the case for virtually the entire calendar year, the Wildcats did not disappoint. Seniors Josh Hart and Kris Jenkins have been the stars for most of the season and were great once again, combining for 39 points. But it was sophomore point guard Jalen Brunson who paced Villanova in this 80-70 win, scoring a career-high 27 while also flustering Creighton's Mo Watson.
Darryl Reynolds and Donte DiVincenzo barely made any impact. Mikal Bridges had his worst game of the season. But that trio was good enough for a road win against a previously unbeaten team.
Hard to believe this was the same team that darn near lost a home game to DePaul just three days prior.
Maybe it was the proverbial trap game, but Villanova did not look good against a Blue Demons team that shot only 3-of-17 from three-point range. All of Villanova's flaws were on display in that game. The Wildcats struggled on the glass, they didn't force turnovers and their usually great three-point shooting was below-average.
But that 68-65 nail-biter has been long since forgiven and forgotten. The win over Creighton was the only result of the week that mattered, aside from the UCLA loss that enabled Villanova to move to the top of even more ballots than usual. The Wildcats remain No. 1 for a fifth consecutive week and now have 59 of the 65 first-place votes.
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Loser: ACC's Top Tier
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When Duke losing at Virginia Tech is maybe the fourth-most surprising result of the week in the ACC, it's clear things have already gone off the rails.
Without Grayson Allen, the Blue Devils were a hot mess. Luke Kennard kept his Wooden Award campaign alive with 34 points. Jayson Tatum had a few lottery-worthy plays en route to 18 points of his own. But Duke put forth one of its worst teamwide defensive efforts ever. The Hokies earned the win, but the Blue Devils did little to resist. As a result of the 89-75 loss, they dropped three spots to No. 8.
The worst loss of the week—and possibly of the entire season—was No. 9 North Carolina falling 75-63 to Georgia Tech. The Tar Heels shot 5-of-26 from three-point range and committed 20 turnovers in the process of averaging 0.808 points per possession. It was their least efficient offensive performance since the inexplicable 58-46 home loss to North Carolina State in February 2015, and it came just three days after dropping 102 on Monmouth. UNC plummeted to No. 14 for its third loss.
Virginia comfortably won at Louisville before losing a home game to Florida State, climbing just one spot to No. 11 despite arguably the best win of the week. And while the Cavaliers were unable to slow down Dwayne Bacon, the Cardinals were rebounding with a 15-point win over Indiana in Indianapolis to limit their slide to three spots to No. 9.
Is Indiana that bad? Is Florida State that good? Or is Louisville just going to be wildly unpredictable on offense depending on whether Donovan Mitchell and Deng Adel show up (15 points against Virginia; 42 against Indiana)?
Regardless, the four teams that entered ACC play ranked in the AP Top 12 now have a combined conference record of 1-4. Buckle up for a few months full of carnage in this conference.
Winner: ACC's Second Tier
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The chaos atop the ACC made for one heck of a week for what was supposed to be the league's second-best tier of teams.
No. 20 Florida State finished Wednesday's win over Wake Forest on a dominant 27-6 run before shocking No. 11 Virginia in Charlottesville. Dwayne Bacon scored 26 of his career-high 29 points in the second half against the Cavaliers, including a game-winning three-point dagger with two seconds remaining. The Seminoles are now 14-1 and have that elusive signature win the AP voters have been waiting to see. They jumped eight spots to No. 12.
Virginia Tech was No. 27 in last week's AP poll, but the Hokies had arguably the most impressive win of the week. They didn't just beat Duke. They smoked the Blue Devils from start to finish, jumping out to an early 8-0 lead and keeping Luke Kennard and Co. at bay the rest of the way. Unlike Florida State's Bacon-fueled upset, this was a full-team effort from Virginia Tech. Six Hokies finished in double figures as the team shot 61.5 percent from three-point range. Now 12-1, VT is ranked for the first time since November 2010, entering the AP poll at No. 21.
Remaining in its seemingly and inexplicably permanent state below the national radar, Clemson extended its winning streak to nine games with victories over UNC-Wilmington and Wake Forest. The Tigers were No. 29 in last week's poll and were only able to move up two spots to No. 27 this week. Games against North Carolina and Notre Dame this week could provide the statement win (or wins?) they need.
Notre Dame and Miami also survived the week without a loss, leaving the ACC with nine teams in the Top 30 of the poll. We'll see if Pittsburgh, North Carolina State, Wake Forest or Georgia Tech can eventually join that group to make this at least a 10-bid league, but the ACC is already looking every bit as deep and as strong as expected.
Loser: Butler Bulldogs
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There are a lot of teams that don't make any sense right now, but Butler is staking its claim as the king of that confusing hill. The Bulldogs have wins over Arizona, Cincinnati, Indiana, Northwestern, Providence, Utah and Vanderbilt. Only Baylor has more RPI Top 50 wins and there are only five teams with more RPI Top 100 wins.
But they also have losses to 6-8 Indiana State and 8-7 St. John's, the latter occurring this past Thursday.
What's particularly bizarre about that 76-73 upset is the Red Storm didn't even play that well. Their two strengths this season have been three-point shooting and shot-blocking, but they shot 25 percent and blocked just six Butler shots. They also committed 16 turnovers while recording a grand total of five assists.
With Kethan Savage and Andrew Chrabascz combining for 17 points on 25 shots, though, the Bulldogs were even less impressive than the Red Storm.
They bounced back with a 17-point win over Providence and have a chance to really turn things back around with a home game against Villanova this coming Wednesday. Which version of Butler shows up for that one is anyone's guess. What we do know, though, is it'll be ranked No. 18 for that game—five spots worse than it was in last week's poll.
Winners: Gonzaga and Wisconsin
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Sometimes in the polls, it's better to be lucky than good.
Teams like Oregon and Florida State made big jumps as a result of impressive wins. Gonzaga and Wisconsin, however, climbed several spots by simply avoiding what would have been horrible losses.
Gonzaga's quest for an undefeated season continued with a pair of dominant victories in West Coast Conference play. The Bulldogs started slow against both Pepperdine and Pacific, but they ended up winning those contests by a combined margin of 50 points.
Gonzaga was No. 7 seven days ago with 1,222 votes, but No. 2 UCLA, No. 5 Duke and No. 6 Louisville all suffered losses. This opened the door for the Zags to jump to No. 5, gaining 135 votes for a light week of work.
It was an even easier holiday week for the Badgers, as their only game was at home against Rutgers. They shot poorly (5-of-18 from three) and weren't nearly as dominant in the rebounding battle as they usually are, but that was of no consequence in the 20-point blowout.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin was surrounded by carnage. Nos. 12, 13, 15 and 16 combined to suffer five losses. Even though they didn't do anything impressive, the Badgers moved up in a ton of ballots by default. Nigel Hayes and Co. will carry a No. 13 ranking into a brutal week of road games against Indiana and Purdue.
Loser: Big Ten
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Lost in the shuffle of the ACC pandemonium, it was a downright disastrous week for the Big Ten.
As noted on the previous slide, Wisconsin got off easy with nothing more than a home game against Rutgers for the week. But every other previously good-looking team took (at least) one on the chin.
No. 15 Purdue beat the tar out of Iowa before losing at home to Minnesota—despite 28 points and 22 rebounds from Caleb Swanigan. The Boilermakers are now 1-3 against KenPom.com Top 50 teams with all four of those games coming down to the wire. They have arguably the most dominant player in the country, but it's tough to gauge at this point whether this team is actually good. They slipped five spots to No. 20.
Likewise, former No. 16 Indiana is putting together one of the strangest resumes we've ever seen. The Hoosiers have great wins over Kansas and North Carolina, but their third-best win to date was probably a home game against Liberty. That's because they were unable to beat either Nebraska or Louisville this week, losing the turnover battle in each game in what is becoming an all-too-familiar theme for this team. The Hoosiers dropped into a tie with USC for No. 25, but if they don't figure out their point guard situation soon, they'll be unranked for the rest of the season.
Nebraska shocked the Big Ten a second time with Sunday's road win over Maryland. The Terrapins were No. 26 in last week's poll and blew out Illinois in their Big Ten opener, but they gave this game to the Cornhuskers by failing to score a single point in the final 5:55, turning a 65-53 lead into a 67-65 loss.
Not to be outdone, Michigan and Ohio State lost to Iowa and Illinois, respectively, in their only games of the week. Neither one was close to breaking into the AP poll, but those losses reiterate the dire state of affairs in the Big Ten. This should eventually be at least a six-bid league. However, good luck pinpointing who those six teams will be after the way conference play started.
Stats and computer-profile data are courtesy of WarrenNolan.com, KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com. Recruiting information is courtesy of Scout.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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