Bold Predictions for College Basketball for the New Year
As the calendar changes from 2016 to 2017, conference play begins in earnest across the nation. The first seven weeks gave us a general idea of what to expect the rest of the season, but nothing is definite and a lot can change.
Some teams are overrated early in the season because of soft nonconference schedules. Others will play their best basketball in February and March after slow starts as they get injured players back or young players mature.
It is impossible to project all the twists and turns the college basketball season will take over the next three months. The one thing we know for sure is that some unexpected things will take place.
We take a stab at predicting 10 possible occurrences that don't seem obvious at the moment.
The Big Ten Champion Will Have at Least Five Conference Losses
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The Big Ten regular-season champion lost no more than three conference games in any of the past three seasons, and only once in the past 15 years has the champion lost as many as five conference games. That was in 2011-12, when Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State all finished with 13-5 Big Ten records.
This season is starting to look a lot like that 2011-12 season, with no superpower at the top and a bunch of pretty good teams in the middle. No Big Ten team is ranked among the Top 12 this week, but three are ranked between Nos. 13 and 24.
The line between the best and the worst teams in the conference became fuzzy in the Big Ten opener in Bloomington, Indiana. Indiana, which looked like the conference favorite based on nonconference wins over Kansas and North Carolina, lost at home to Nebraska, which looked like the worst team in the Big Ten based on its 6-6 nonconference record, including a loss to Gardner-Webb. Nebraska then complicated things further by beating Maryland on the road, handing the Terps just their second loss of the season. The Cornhuskers own a share of the Big Ten lead after the first weekend.
Minnesota lost its opener, but then turned around and beat Purdue, which was ranked 15th at the time.
Michigan State, which was just 8-5 in nonconference play, seems to be getting its act together and could challenge Purdue, Indiana and Wisconsin for the conference title.
Taking at least a share of the conference title with a 13-5 record seems within reason, and a 12-6 champion is a distinct possibility.
Marcus Keene Will Score 50 Points at Least Once
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The scoring prowess of Central Michigan guard Marcus Keene is hidden in the Mid-American Conference, but a 50-point game or two will open the nation's eyes to this 5'9" offensive dynamo.
Keene is scoring 30.7 points per game, and his season-low 16-point game in the Dec. 30 victory over Chicago State hurt that average. Perhaps he is starting to become too unselfish because he had eight assists in that game.
However, Keene twice scored 40 points or more in December, collecting 40 points while still dishing out 11 assists against Green Bay and piling up 44 points with six assists in a victory over Montana State. His 48.7 overall shooting percentage and 40.5 percentage on three-pointers, as well his 5.4 assists per game, indicate he can score a lot without disrupting his team's chances for success. Central Michigan is 10-3.
It typically becomes more difficult to put up big numbers in conference play, with teams preparing more vigorously for specific opponents, but Keene has the ability to break loose against anyone.
Having two games against Western Michigan, which allows 78.3 points per game, will aid Keene's chances of breaking through for 50.
Kentucky Will Go Unbeaten in SEC Play
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This is a shaky prediction, but at least it's bold.
Only five times since the 1955-56 season has a Southeastern Conference team gone undefeated in the conference. However, three of the five were recent. The 2011-12 Kentucky team, the 2013-14 Florida squad and the 2014-15 Kentucky team all won every SEC game. There is a significant difference between those teams and this season's Kentucky team: Those past three teams were better.
All three of those recent unbeaten conference champs were ranked No. 1 in the final Associated Press poll and were dominant teams. The 2011-12 Wildcats went 38-2 and won the national championship. The 2013-14 Gators were the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament, got to the Final Four and finished 36-3. The 2014-15 Kentucky team was being compared to the best teams in history. It was ranked No. 1 every week of the season and was undefeated until it lost in the national semifinals.
This season's Kentucky squad already has two losses, one of which was at home, and is ranked No. 6. However, two factors suggest these Wildcats could go through conference play without a blemish.
The first factor is the level of talent and potential of this Kentucky team. DraftExpress projects three Kentucky players (De'Aaron Fox, Malik Monk and Bam Adebayo) to be among the top 15 picks in the 2017 NBA draft. And since all three are freshmen, the Wildcats figure to improve as the season goes on.
The second factor is the quality of the opposition in the SEC. Florida is the only other SEC team in this week's Top 25, and the Gators squeaked in at No. 24. No SEC team comes close to matching Kentucky's talent.
If we assume that Kentucky will not lose any conference games at Rupp Arena, the two major challenges will be a road game against Florida on Feb. 4 and a road game against Texas A&M in the final regular-season game on March 4.
Road games against Arkansas, Auburn and South Carolina might have presented problems, but the Wildcats play those three teams at home this season.
It remains possible that Kentucky will stumble somewhere along the line, but we are predicting the Wildcats will win the close games and sneak through SEC play without a loss.
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10 ACC Teams Will Get NCAA Tournament Berths
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Only twice has a conference had more than eight teams qualify for the NCAA tournament and just once has a conference had 10 or more teams get NCAA tournament berths. That was in 2011 when 11 of the 16 Big East teams made it to the Big Dance.
In recent years, the number of representatives from a given conference seems to be dwindling slightly. No conference has had more than seven teams get into the NCAA tournament in any of the past three seasons.
That brings us to the 2016-17 version of the Atlantic Coast Conference. Take a look at that 15-team lineup and tell me which ones won't make the NCAA tournament.
OK, Boston College won't get there without a few miracles, and sliding Syracuse, which lost to Boston College in its ACC opener, is likely doomed despite being ranked 19th in the preseason AP poll. Wake Forest is a long shot at best and Georgia Tech is probably a bubble team at the moment despite its impressive win over North Carolina.
Scan the other 11 teams and tell me which ones are destined for the NIT rather than the NCAA tournament.
Virginia, Florida State, Duke, North Carolina and Louisville are already virtual locks and Virginia Tech probably put itself in that category with its one-sided win over Duke. Notre Dame's only two losses are to teams currently ranked, so the Irish figure to make it, giving the ACC seven teams right off the bat.
That leaves the uncertain quartet of Miami (11-2), Clemson (11-2), Pittsburgh (11-3) and North Carolina State (11-3). All four are strong contenders for NCAA tournament berths at the moment and at least three of them have a chance to make the field of 68.
Unlike last season, when the Big 12 was loaded, none of the other conferences is fully stocked with elite teams, giving the ACC a better chance to maximize its representation.
Connecticut, Georgetown and Syracuse Will All Finish with Losing Records
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Syracuse, Georgetown and Connecticut have combined to win five national championships. Those programs are so strong year in and year out that an NCAA title becomes the goal every season.
Not this season.
There is a pretty good chance that none of those three will even get into the NCAA tournament, and the prediction here is that all three will wind up with losing overall records.
The notion of Syracuse, UConn and Georgetown all finishing below .500 is almost unthinkable, especially since two of the three were ranked in the preseason Top 25. The three schools have not all had losing records in the same season since 1967-68. Georgetown and Syracuse were independents at the time, coached by Jack Magee and Fred Lewis, respectively. UConn played in the Yankee Conference in 1967-68 and was coached by Burr Carlson.
But here we stand.
Syracuse has never had a losing season under Jim Boeheim, who became its head coach in 1976. The Orange were ranked No. 19 in the preseason Associated Press poll and won their first four games this season. Then things went south. Syracuse has lost six of its last 10 games and its recent results have been particularly disappointing. The Orange lost at home by 33 points to a St. John's team that had been struggling and dropped its ACC opener by 15 points to a Boston College team that went 0-18 in the ACC last season.
Syracuse stands at 8-6. With the level of competition the Orange must face during the ACC season, there is no reason to believe they will have more wins than losses at season's end.
UConn was ranked one spot ahead of Syracuse in the preseason poll, but a season-opening loss to Wagner followed by a loss to Northeastern, both at home, suggested UConn was not Final Four material this season. Thing got worse when Alterique Gilbert and Terry Larrier suffered season-ending injuries.
The Huskies stand at 5-8 and have lost their last three games. UConn is overmatched by only a few teams in the American Athletic Conference, but things may be too far gone already.
Georgetown was not ranked in the preseason Top 25 but was picked to finish fourth in the Big East. After suffering their first losing season since 1998-99 last season, the Hoyas figured to be back on track.
The Hoyas lost four of their first six games, but they beat Oregon and had won six straight heading into Big East play. However, losses to Marquette and Xavier dropped their conference record to 0-2 and their overall mark to 8-6.
With seven games left against ranked teams, including two against Villanova, Georgetown will have trouble turning things around. Georgetown may have a better chance than Syracuse and UConn of finishing with a winning record, but we predict the Hoyas will fall short for a second straight season.
Kansas Will Not Win a 13th Straight Conference Title
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Kansas was the preseason choice to win a 13th straight regular-season conference championship and the Jayhawks have done nothing that would warrant removing them from the role of Big 12 favorite.
Almost everything is pointing in the Jayhawks' favor: They have won 12 consecutive games, including a victory over Duke, after an opening loss to Indiana. They are ranked No. 3 in the country. They have talent at nearly every position, with guard Frank Mason III playing at a national-player-of-the-year level. They are almost unbeatable at home, having won 49 in a row at home, including 46 straight at Allen Fieldhouse. The Big 12 does not appear to be as strong as it was a year ago.
So what's the problem?
The problems are Baylor and West Virginia.
West Virginia is ranked No. 7 and has won eight in a row, including a nine-point road victory against Virginia and a 17-point road victory over Oklahoma State in the conference opener. The Mountaineers beat Kansas by 11 points in Morgantown, West Virginia, last year when the Jayhawks were ranked No. 1 and are capable of doing it again.
Meanwhile, Baylor is the surprise team of the country and the Bears seem to be getting better.
None of Baylor's last seven games has been closer than 15 points. That includes a 76-61 win over then-No. 7 Xavier and a 76-50 rout of Oklahoma on the Sooners' home floor in the conference opener. Baylor's average margin of victory over its last five games is 32.2 points.
We keep waiting for the Bears to hit a rough spot and slowly disintegrate, but it may not happen. They are up to No. 2 in the country, ahead of Kansas, and maybe they can stay there. The Bears' zone defense and balanced attack led by long-armed Johnathan Motley may carry them through the season.
Certainly Kansas has enough talent and experience to win a 13th straight conference title, but we predict either West Virginia or Baylor will prevent it.
At Least 2 of the Pro-Ready Freshmen Will Return Next Season
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The depth of elite talent in this season's freshman class is impressive. DraftExpress projects the top eight picks and 13 of the first 16 selections in the 2017 NBA draft will be current college freshmen.
The group includes the likes of Kentucky's Malik Monk, De'Aaron Fox and Bam Adebayo, UCLA's Lonzo Ball and T.J. Leaf, Michigan State's Miles Bridges, Washington's Markelle Fultz, Kansas' Josh Jackson, North Carolina State's Dennis Smith, Duke's Jayson Tatum and Harry Giles, Florida State's Jonathan Isaac and Arizona's Lauri Markkanen.
All of them are among the best college players in the nation this season, not just potential stars that NBA teams figure to groom for future greatness.
It is arguably the best freshman class in history, rivaling the 2011-12 recruiting class and the 2014-15 group.
However, with so many of this season's freshmen expecting to be high first-round draft choices, some of them may question whether turning pro now is in their best interests. A few will realize that some are going to get pushed down in the draft order because of the depth, affecting their initial NBA paycheck.
Ivan Rabb of California may have set a precedent. He was projected to be a possible lottery pick after his freshman season last year, but he returned for his sophomore season. How his draft status is affected may influence the decision of current freshmen.
At least two of the current freshman stars are apt to look at their status for the 2017 NBA draft and recognize that their draft positioning may improve if they wait for 2018.
Gonzaga Will Be the Last Unbeaten Team
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Only three undefeated teams remain as we begin 2017, and Baylor and Villanova are the two unbeaten squads getting most of the attention. That is as it should be since they are ranked in the Top Four and play in major conferences.
However, the team that will remain undefeated the longest resides in the West Coast Conference. That would be Gonzaga.
The bolder predictions are that Gonzaga will occupy the No. 1 slot at some point this season and will finish the regular season unbeaten. Those two possibilities are long shots, but certainly not impossible.
Gonzaga is currently ranked No. 5, which puts the top spot well within reach. More important is the fact that the Bulldogs' schedule provides an opportunity to win every game in January.
Baylor faces a challenging Big 12 schedule that includes a Jan. 10 game at West Virginia. The Bears don't face Kansas until their Feb. 1 game at Kansas' Allen Fieldhouse, but getting past every opponent until then will be difficult.
Villanova got by what might be its toughest conference game of the season when it beat Creighton on the Bluejays' home court Saturday. But the Wildcats still face six games against teams that are currently ranked in the Top 25, leaving a lot of potential roadblocks.
Gonzaga, on the other hand, plays only one game against a ranked team until Feb. 11, and that is a home game against No. 19 Saint Mary's on Jan. 14. The Gaels have all five starters back from a squad that beat the Bulldogs at Gonzaga last season, but beating the Bulldogs twice in a row at the McCarthey Center, aka The Kennel, just seems far-fetched.
Gonzaga will be tested in some of its conference games, starting with Thursday's game at San Francisco, but this is an experienced Gonzaga team that has already beaten Arizona and Florida on neutral courts.
The Bulldogs won their first two WCC games by a combined margin of 50 points. With five players averaging double figures in scoring, they can survive when one player has a bad game. The inside-outside combination of 7'1" Przemek Karnowski and guard Nigel Williams-Goss makes them a handful to defend.
The fact that Gonzaga ranks eighth in the country in field-goal percentage defense at 37.3 is another reason to believe the Bulldogs will have consistent success.
Allen and Duke Will Rise Again
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Everything seems to be working against Duke early in the season. The prized freshmen got a late start because of injuries. Grayson Allen had another meltdown that leaves him suspended for the time being. Coach Mike Krzyzewski will miss four weeks in the middle of the season following back surgery, per Jeff Goodman of ESPN.com.
Duke has not looked like the team that was an overwhelming choice as the No. 1 team in the preseason poll. The Blue Devils are ranked No. 8 this week and probably lucky to be there.
They looked particularly vulnerable in the one-sided loss to Virginia Tech on Saturday. These Blue Devils were not expected to lose to a team like Virginia Tech, which was unranked at the time. And they certainly were not expected to get blown out like they did. Duke trailed by a double-digit margin throughout the second half and was behind by 20 with nine minutes left.
Jayson Tatum has been impressive, but the other two prized freshmen, Harry Giles and Marques Bolden, have done nothing of note so far.
Even when Allen was playing, he was not producing like a preseason All-American. His scoring average has dipped from last season's 21.6 points per game to 16.0. With the infusion of new talent and the breakout season by Luke Kennard, it is not surprising that Allen's scoring average slipped a bit. But what is more troubling is that he is shooting just 38.4 percent from the floor.
It remains to be seen how he will react to his discipline when he returns. Will he still have the aggressiveness that made him a star last season?
The prediction here is that Duke will continue to struggle, perhaps through the month of January, and Allen will not do much in his first few games back as fans in other arenas heckle him.
However, look for Duke to put it together in February and begin to dominate. Down the stretch and into the postseason, Allen will again become a dominant scorer because he is just too good at putting the ball in the basket.
Duke may not win the ACC title, but by the time the NCAA tournament rolls around, the Blue Devils will be the team to beat.
No. 1 Team Entering the Postseason Won't Be a Regular-Season Conference Champ
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This prediction is based more on intuition than fact, and admittedly it is a bit of a long shot. However, there is a chance that the No. 1-ranked team entering the postseason will not be the regular-season champion in its conference.
It sounds impossible, but it almost happened last year. Kansas, the No. 1-ranked team entering the NCAA tournament, did win the Big 12 title, but the No. 2 team, Michigan State, finished two games behind Big Ten regular-season champion Indiana, which was ranked 14th. Also, Virginia, which finished tied for second in the ACC standings, was No. 4 in the rankings entering the postseason.
At some point, a team that finishes second, or possibly even third, in its conference will claim the final No. 1 slot.
There are two reasons it could happen this season. First of all, the depth of talent in several of the top conferences means some awfully good teams are not going to win their conference championship but still wind up with impressive overall records. Secondly, because of the parity across the nation this season, a team could wind up No. 1 while still having five or six overall losses. Virginia had seven losses when it was ranked No. 4 last season.
The ACC is the conference most likely to produce a No. 1-ranked team that does not win its regular-season league title. A late-season surge combined with a victory in the conference tournament by, say, Duke could put the Blue Devils in the top spot as we begin the NCAA tournament, even if one of the four or five other highly rated ACC teams finishes first in the conference race.
Perhaps UCLA will finish a game behind Oregon in the Pac-12 standings but still have an impressive enough overall record to go along with a conference tournament title to earn the No. 1 slot.
Something similar could happen regarding Kansas, Baylor and West Virginia in the Big 12.
It will happen some year; it's just a question of when.
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