Winners and Losers of the 1st Month of the College Basketball Offseason
North Carolina and North Carolina State are separated by less than the length of a marathon, but they have been sprinting in opposite directions thus far* in the college basketball offseason. The Tar Heels are among the biggest winners, while the Wolfpack are one of our biggest losers.
It wasn't even five weeks ago that Kris Jenkins made the final shot of the 2015-16 season, but plenty has happened since then. Between draft declarations, transfers and coaching changes, a ton has changed since we published our way-too-early top-25 rankings.
These aren't necessarily the projected top 25 teams, though. In fact, a few of them are more likely to suffer 25 losses in 2016-17 than spend a single week in the top 25. But they're still eligible to appear on the list as a loser, even if their expectations for next season went from "maybe we'll finish .500" to "there's always 2017-18."
In putting together this list, we wanted to see multiple major developments—or the lack thereof, in North Carolina's case. Some schools made waves with one key announcement—Kansas signing Josh Jackson or Michigan State losing Deyonta Davis to the draft, for example—but that wasn't enough to be one of the biggest winners or losers.
Note: It has been roughly one month since the season ended, but the offseason begins at different times for different teams. Anything that has happened since the end of each team's season was eligible for consideration.
Loser: UNLV Rebels
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Outside of some sort of scandal or a rarely seen season-ending injury seven months before the season begins, there are three main ways to get worse in the first month of the college basketball offseason: draft declarations, transfers and coaching changes.
Where should we start with UNLV?
On the draft front, the Rebels are tied with Kentucky for most players from one school who declared for the draft and hired an agent, losing Patrick McCaw, Derrick Jones and Stephen Zimmerman. Those players ranked first, third and fifth, respectively, on the team in points scored in 2015-16, while Nos. 2 and 4 on that list both graduated, so things already aren’t looking great here.
Then there’s the transfer list, which includes UNLV’s sixth-leading scorer (Jordan Cornish) and seventh-leading scorer (Ben Carter) as well as a scarcely used reserve (Daquan Cook) for good measure.
Let’s not forget Chris Obekpa and Goodluck Okonoboh either. The former never even appeared in a game for the Rebels after transferring in from St. John’s, but he’s testing the NBA draft waters. The latter lasted just six games into the 2015-16 season before deciding to transfer and also dipping his foot in the draft.
And if you like coaching changes, UNLV has had three of them in the past six months. The Rebels fired Dave Rice in the middle of the season, temporarily replacing him with assistant Todd Simon. Then they hired Arkansas-Little Rock’s Chris Beard, only to see him take the opening at Texas Tech a few weeks later.
Now, they have former New Mexico State coach Marvin Menzies and hardly any players to give him.
I suppose that’s one way to celebrate 25 years without a Final Four appearance.
Winner: Arizona Wildcats
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Without question, Arizona is the biggest winner to this point in college basketball’s offseason.
For starters, the Wildcats are hanging onto their head coach. The “Sean Miller to Pittsburgh” rumors started up and quickly died before the 2016 NCAA tournament ended, but sources at KDKA-TV (h/t The Daily Wildcat) have confirmed it was one of the more bizarre offseason stories thus far. No need to fear, Arizona fans: Miller will be back for at least one more season of sweating through his Oxford shirts on your bench.
Moreover, the Wildcats are getting another year of Allonzo Trier—which was anything other than a foregone conclusion. The freshman shooting guard averaged 14.8 points per game but decided that another year of college ball would be best for his career.
A little more than a week after Trier chose to come back, 5-star wing Terrance Ferguson decided to come aboard, giving Arizona four 5-star recruits in this year’s class and a grand total of six on the roster, including Trier and Ray Smith, who will presumably make his Wildcats debut after missing last season with a torn ACL.
They lost four key seniors to graduation and Justin Simon to the transfer market, but the Wildcats should have more than enough talent to rival Oregon and UCLA for Pac-12 supremacy.
Loser: North Carolina State Wolfpack
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In the window of less than two weeks between when North Carolina State’s season ended and Cat Barber declared for the NBA draft, the Wolfpack were arguably the top candidate for a breakout season. They weren’t losing any seniors, they were getting Terry Henderson back from an opening day season-ending injury, and they were adding a phenomenal freshman point guard in Dennis Smith Jr.
But it has been nothing but bad news since then.
Barber was one of just seven players in the past decade to average at least 23 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.4 assists in a season, so losing him wasn’t a great start to the offseason. But then Caleb and Cody Martin decided to transfer, and Abdul-Malik Abu and BeeJay Anya declared for the draft.
Anya will probably come back, but don’t bet on Abu playing another game for N.C. State, which would mean the Wolfpack lose four of last year’s five leading scorers and only return three players who scored more than 10 points in 2015-16.
Even with the additions of Henderson and Smith, it’s hard to envision this roster having enough capable bodies to fare better than last year’s 16-17 record.
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Winner: North Carolina Tar Heels
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For the second straight year, the biggest unknown at the outset of college basketball’s offseason was whether North Carolina would be eligible for postseason play as a result of the Wainstein Report—which, by the way, was published three months before allegations of Tom Brady deflating footballs, in case you’ve lost track of how long we’ve been speculating about the ramifications of this mess.
We’re no closer to a resolution on North Carolina’s paper classes scandal than we were a year-and-a-half ago, and that’s fantastic news for the 2016-17 Tar Heels. In fact, the latest notice of allegations makes things sound more promising for the men’s basketball program than anything that has surfaced to date.
Better yet, it’s looking like everyone who can come back, will.
Based on his play in the NCAA tournament, there was a reasonable chance that Joel Berry II would bolt for the NBA, but he never even tested the waters. Kennedy Meeks did but has already announced that he will be returning for his senior season. That leaves Justin Jackson as the only one still on the fence, but he isn’t a projected draft pick on DraftExpress or NBADraft.net.
Provided Jackson returns to school, the Tar Heels will be a strong candidate for a second consecutive trip to the Final Four. They haven’t gained anything new in the past month, but that feels like a win, compared to what the possibilities were.
Loser: Missouri Tigers
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Missouri hasn’t won a NCAA tournament game since 2010, and it’s looking like it’ll be a long time before the Tigers even get another chance.
After losing 44 games over the past two seasons, the Tigers face yet another mass exodus. In addition to Ryan Rosburg graduating, they lost five players to the transfer market—four of whom (Namon Wright, Wes Clark, Jakeenan Gant and Tramaine Isabell) scored at least 150 points in 2015-16.
This comes one year after losing Johnathan Williams, Montaque Gill-Caesar and Deuce Bello as transfers.
At this point, the only noteworthy players coming back are guys who were freshmen this past season. Though, given Missouri’s recent history, it hardly seems safe to assume that they’ll go another six months without deciding to jump ship. Kevin Puryear, Terrence Phillips, K.J. Walton and Cullen VanLeer are pretty much the only players left on a roster devoid of anyone with more than 355 career points.
The Tigers do have a reasonable shot at landing Michael Porter—an absolute stud in the 2017 recruiting class from Columbia, Missouri—but that might be about the only way this program can turn things around in the near future. And that doesn’t do anything for the 2016-17 expectations. It would be a bit of a surprise if Missouri wins a single SEC game this coming season.
Winner: California Golden Bears
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Though the Golden Bears lost Jaylen Brown to the NBA draft, their offseason hasn’t been anywhere near as challenging as we expected.
They have Ivan Rabb to thank for that, as the potential lottery pick decided to forgo the draft for one more year of college ball. He could realistically follow in Jakob Poeltl’s footsteps at Utah by surprisingly coming back for a sophomore season, only to dominate the competition en route to Pac-12 Player of the Year honors.
Less than 48 hours after Rabb made his decision, California got even more good news with the announcement that Columbia graduate-transfer Grant Mullins will be taking his talents to Berkeley. After having the previous two seasons marred by concussion symptoms, Mullins averaged 13.3 points and 3.3 assists while shooting 43.9 percent from three-point range for the Lions.
And there’s a chance California isn’t done yet. According to Connor Letourneau of SFGate.com, head coach Cuonzo Martin is still in the running to land College of Charleston graduate-transfer Canyon Barry—who averaged 19.7 points per game in 13 games this past season.
Replacing Brown and Tyrone Wallace won’t be easy, but the Golden Bears are well on their way to a roster that could earn another No. 4 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Loser: Xavier Musketeers
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Xavier opened the offseason as one of the top candidates for a big year. We had the Musketeers at No. 10 in our way-too-early top-25 rankings. Sports Illustrated's Seth Davis had them at No. 9. CBS Sports' Gary Parrish put them at No. 5.
But those rankings now seem a bit overzealous, given all that Xavier has lost and might still lose.
Jalen Reynolds declaring for the NBA draft was hardly a surprise, but that doesn’t make it an easier pill to swallow. With James Farr graduating and Makinde London transferring, Reynolds’ departure leaves the Musketeers a bit short-handed in the frontcourt—even with Norfolk State transfer Rashid Gaston coming in to man the paint.
And while fringe draft picks such as North Carolina’s Kennedy Meeks and Villanova’s Kris Jenkins have decided to return to their schools, Xavier’s Trevon Bluiett is still testing the NBA draft waters. He wasn’t invited to the combine, though, so there’s a strong chance he’ll come back. That’s great news for the Musketeers, because they’re in trouble if he doesn’t.
Even if he does return, this doesn’t quite look like a top-10 roster anymore, unless Edmond Sumner and Kaiser Gates are both headed for monster sophomore seasons. At any rate, Xavier has lost more this offseason than any of the other consensus top-10 teams in the way-too-early rankings.
Winner: Iowa State Cyclones
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After losing Georges Niang, Abdel Nader and Jameel McKay to graduation, things could have gone off the rails in a hurry for the Cyclones.
But Monte Morris quickly got things moving in the right direction by announcing in early April that he will return for his senior season. Then at the end of April, Naz Mitrou-Long was granted a medical hardship waiver for one more year of eligibility. Shortly thereafter, Deonte Burton decided to quit testing the NBA draft waters and return to school.
With Matt Thomas still in tow and Northern Illinois transfer Darrell Bowie joining the fray, the Cyclones have quite the collection of wings for 2016-17—even with Hallice Cooke and Jordan Ashton both transferring out of the program.
To really win the offseason, though, they’ll need to land another frontcourt weapon. Louisiana Tech graduate-transfer Merrill Holden is reportedly considering Iowa State after averaging 8.1 points and 5.0 rebounds per game this past season, according to Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports. Getting him would be another big step in the right direction for head coach Steve Prohm and company.
Loser: Robert Morris Colonials
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Texas (Isaiah Taylor declared for the draft), Connecticut (Daniel Hamilton declared) and Washington State (seemingly the entire roster either transferred or is testing the draft waters) were all solid candidates for the fifth and final loser spot, but we wanted to make sure to include at least one minor conference team on our list.
Over the past few seasons, Robert Morris has lost about as many players to the transfer market as Kentucky has sent to the NBA, so Bobby Mo was the obvious choice.
Just 13 months ago, Andy Toole was the up-and-coming coach everyone was swooning over. He had a career record of 110-66, had won at least 20 games in four consecutive seasons and had yet to even celebrate his 35th birthday. By leading the Colonials to five straight seasons with at least 12 conference wins and a 2015 NCAA tournament appearance, he was looking the part of a coach whom bigger programs would pay top dollar to get.
But after a 10-22 season and two straight offseasons of losing transfers left and right, Toole’s name never even came up in this year’s coaching carousel.
Rodney Pryor was the big loss. The shooting guard led the Colonials in scoring in each of the past two seasons before graduate-transferring to Georgetown. Perhaps even more disturbing, though, are the departures of the young guys. Sophomores Elijah Minnie and Andre Frederick and freshmen Steven Whitley and Joe Hugley all decided it’s worth a year on the bench to play somewhere else.
With nary a senior on the 2015-16 roster, Robert Morris likely would have been the favorite to win the Northeast Conference next season. After all the Colonials lost, though, another sub-.500 campaign seems more likely.
Recruit rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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