Duke Basketball: Projecting Blue Devils' 2016-17 Starting Lineup
The Duke Blue Devils are always loaded with talent, but the 2016-17 squad might be as good as any in recent years.
Even after losing Brandon Ingram, Marshall Plumlee and Derryck Thornton from last year's squad, the team returns a number of key players while adding the No. 2 recruiting class in the country, per 247Sports. The group can move to No. 1 overall with the addition of Marques Bolden, although let's assume he goes elsewhere for now.
Even without the big man, Duke will have a team that should once again overcome a lack of experience and contend for a national title. After last year's relatively disappointing finish in the Sweet 16, this program will be back on top.
Besides just having talent, the Blue Devils will have the depth they were desperately missing this past season. Coach Mike Krzyzewski will actually have options with his lineups as opposed to just throwing out the only five players he trusts.
This could lead to some intriguing starting fives, but here is an early prediction for the lineup in November.
PG: Frank Jackson
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There were times Frank Jackson was almost overlooked in a loaded 2016 recruiting class. However, he made sure to get noticed during the week of the McDonald's All-American Game.
Jackson displayed his athleticism by winning the Slam Dunk Contest and then showcased his shooting ability in the game itself, knocking down 5-of-7 from three-point range. He tallied 19 points in the exhibition while taking home the co-MVP award.
Even if he didn't show it on the big stage, Jackson also has the skills necessary to play point guard as a penetrator who can create for others in the lane. While Thornton was often timid with the ball and lacked the strength to make plays in the paint, Jackson will have no problem consistently attacking the basket.
The biggest transition for him might be learning to share the ball with so many other scorers on the roster. He will have to be unselfish and learn how to play without the ball.
However, Jackson has the offensive and defensive skill set to represent a major upgrade at point guard for Duke next season.
SG: Grayson Allen
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The first-team All-ACC performer should be a favorite for ACC Player of the Year and possibly the National Player of the Year as he heads into his junior season.
Grayson Allen was expected to make a big jump after playing a small role as a freshman, but he surprised even his biggest supporters by averaging 21.6 points per game. He was the team's biggest offensive star, capable of creating looks for himself and making plays all over the floor.
His shooting was excellent all year long and was even better during conference play, where he made 51.4 percent of his shots from the field, 43.5 percent from three-point range and 80.2 percent from the free-throw line.
After deciding to return for his junior year, Allen will need to learn how to succeed against defenders with more length and athleticism than himself. He struggled mightily against Kentucky, Utah and Oregon, three solid defensive teams that held the guard to a combined 9-of-42 shooting (21.4 percent) and just 9.3 points per game.
Still, Allen has as much ability as almost anyone in the country and while he might take fewer shots next year, he should still be a go-to option offensively.
SF: Jayson Tatum
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There is always debate about which player is the best in his respective class, and that is no different this year with Jayson Tatum battling Josh Jackson, Harry Giles, Lonzo Ball and others for that honor. However, Tatum should hold the distinction as the most polished player in the 2016 class.
The small forward will come into college with a well-developed offensive game, capable of getting a shot off against just about any defender at this level. He has a great mid-range game and has a quality shot from the perimeter, all while having a fluid motion at 6'8".
Although he might not be as long or athletic as Ingram, he still could be a silky smooth scorer like Jabari Parker was as a freshman.
Tatum might need some work on the defensive end, but his length for the position should give him a leg up on the competition and he should be just fine as the year progresses. Until then, he will be a force offensively who can spend time at either forward spot and give Duke a lot of versatility.
PF: Harry Giles
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The biggest question for Harry Giles is whether he is healthy. The top prospect tore his ACL at the start of his senior season and although he expects to be ready by November, he is in no rush to get back on the court. He told Jason Jordan of USA Today:
"We’re just taking everything slow. It just doesn’t make any sense to rush anything so I definitely won’t be in any summer leagues. I’m doing my rehab at Duke three times a week, I’m in the pool constantly rehabbing and even out here I’m doing my band work with stretching. I’m about to start running. I just want to be 110 percent ready because we’ve got business to handle next season.
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The knee injury really is the only cause for concern because when healthy, Giles is as dominant as anyone in the country. He is a physically imposing player at 6'11", 222 pounds with the athleticism to consistently make plays above the rim. He is a star defensively with good timing to block shots and get rebounds while also having a developed offensive game in the post.
Although Coach K often prefers to play small ball with a perimeter-oriented player at the 4, Giles can actually play this role with the ability to make shots from the outside or beat players off the dribble.
If the big man isn't ready to go on Day 1, Tatum could slide to power forward and give another guard a chance to start. At full strength, however, you have to get your best players on the court and Giles would be best in this role.
C: Amile Jefferson
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The 2015-16 season might have been much different if Amile Jefferson was healthy all year, but a foot injury limited him to just nine games. While this might have been a disappointment for Brandon Ingram and any students leaving this summer, his return will make next year's team even more dominant.
Jefferson was approved for a medical hardship waiver, giving the senior an extra year of eligibility. His return will give the Blue Devils a much-needed defensive presence and toughness that otherwise would be missing from the roster.
This will be the first team in about a decade without a Plumlee on the roster and someone needs to be able to do the dirty work inside.
Before getting hurt, Jefferson was averaging a double-double with 11.4 points and 10.3 rebounds per game. His offensive rebounding rate was 17.8 percent, which would have been third best in the nation if he had sustained it all year, per KenPom.com.
Even at just 6'9", the veteran player will be able to handle himself in the low post on both ends of the court and should be a leader for this talented squad.
Bench
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Matt Jones, Guard: Although he started all last season, this could be a situation like Greg Paulus as a senior where he moved to the bench in order to allow more talent to shine around him.
Jones doesn't always turn heads while playing but was the team's best perimeter defender last season while also making 41.5 percent of his shots from three-point range. This "3 and D" role is usually reserved for the NBA, but on a talented team that doesn't need extra scoring, he could certainly play 25 to 30 minutes per game and provide a valuable role on an elite team.
If he does stick in the starting lineup, it will likely push Tatum to power forward while playing three guards in the backcourt, creating a look Duke fans are more used to seeing. Still, there might just be too many top players to fit in the lineup next season.
Luke Kennard, Guard: Kennard also started for much of last season, but his best role next year might be as an elite scorer off the bench.
While Kennard lacked consistency last season, he certainly showed he could get hot in a hurry. He had seven different 20-point games during the year, including 20 points against North Carolina and 30 against Notre Dame. If a team could bring this type of lightning in a bottle off the bench to provide an offensive boost when needed, it would be devastating for an opponent.
The guard still needs to develop the rest of his game, but for now he can help the team the most as a scorer in short spurts.
Chase Jeter, Center: It was hard to get Jeter on the floor last year because he was too overmatched at times. The McDonald's All-American has ability, but he just looked lost for much of his freshman season.
The good news is he has plenty of time to develop both physically and mentally. An extra year of adding weight combined with learning the game on both ends of the floor will do wonders for the big man.
Jeter should be able to run the floor and get easy baskets in a fast-paced attack while simply blocking shots and grabbing rebounds on the defensive end. It won't be a tough role but he could represent a great addition off the bench.
Javin DeLaurier, Forward: Duke will have a lot of depth on the bench this year with DeLaurier also likely to have some sort of role on this team.
A 4-star recruit per 247Sports, DeLaurier is raw but long and athletic and knows how to finish around the basket. He won't be a one-and-done player like Tatum, Giles and probably Jackson, but he has tons of upside and will only get better the longer he is in the system.
On next year's team, he should be able to provide rebounding on both ends of the court as well as some rim-protection on defense.
Sean Obi, Forward: Obi barely saw the floor last season, scoring just five total points in 27 minutes. However, the wide-bodied player was a double-double threat at Rice, averaging 11.4 points and 9.3 rebounds per game.
Even with more depth around him, the rising junior should be able to make an impact at least as a rebounder who can bang down low with bigger forwards in the ACC.
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