CBB Teams Getting a Boost in 2016-17 from Players You've Forgotten About
Sometimes you need to take two steps backward to take one step forward, so today we're looking back at the 2014-15 college basketball season to get a better understanding of what to expect in 2016-17.
With one extremely brief exception, it has been more than a year since we've seen any of these former transfers on the court, but they could be important pieces of the national puzzle next season.
Guys like Robert Carter (Maryland), Ryan Anderson (Arizona), Charles Cooke (Dayton) and Eron Harris (Michigan State) all played a key role for tournament teams this past season after sitting out the 2014-15 season. The players on this list will be attempting to follow suit.
Several schools are even double-dipping on transfers, as the top six teams on our list are each adding multiple players who could be starters on their new rosters.
Teams are ranked in ascending order of projected impact of their sat-out-a-year transfers.
Honorable Mentions
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Villanova Wildcats
Player Added: Eric Paschall (Fordham)
Though he averaged 15.9 points per game as a freshman at Fordham, it took him 13.3 field-goal attempts to get there for a team that went 10-21. The 6'6" wing might be Kris Jenkins' primary reserve, but his chances of coming in and starting for the defending national champs are slim to none.
Long Beach State 49ers
Player Added: Evan Payne (Loyola Marymount)
Like Paschall, Payne scored a lot of points (18.0 PPG) but it took him a lot of shots (13.4 FGA) on a team that didn't do much of anything (8-23). LBSU loves its transfers, though, and Payne should be a good replacement for former Maryland transfer Nick Faust.
Miami Hurricanes
Player Added: Rashad Muhammad (San Jose State)
Another inefficient scorer from a terrible team, Muhammad averaged just 1.20 points per field-goal attempt for a San Jose State team that didn't win a single game against a D-I opponent in 2014-15. But he can shoot the three, and Miami desperately needs bodies after losing Angel Rodriguez, Sheldon McClellan and Tonye Jekiri.
Baylor Bears
Player Added: Manu Lecomte (Miami)
Baylor is losing an awful lot this summer between Taurean Prince, Rico Gathers and Lester Medford, but Lecomte should help plug some of those holes. In two seasons with Miami, he shot 43.4 percent from three-point range. He does enough as a passer and defender to play a pivotal role for the Bears.
Butler Bulldogs
Player Added: Kethan Savage (George Washington)
After losing both Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones, Butler could be in some trouble. But the Bulldogs still have Kelan Martin and Andrew Chrabascz to help Savage handle the load. He's much more Jones than Dunham, in that he's 6'3" and isn't much of a three-point shooter, but at least Butler knows how to use that type of player.
Creighton Bluejays
Player Added: Marcus Foster (Kansas State)
Between Mo Watson, Cole Huff and now Foster, Creighton could be a legitimate threat in the Big East thanks almost entirely to players it didn't sign out of high school. If the Bluejays get the version of Foster that averaged 15.5 points while shooting 39.5 percent from three-point range as a freshman at Kansas State, look out.
UNLV Rebels
Player Added: Chris Obekpa (St. John's)
Who knows if his short shorts will make their way to Las Vegas, but Obekpa joins a Rebels program that might be made up entirely of transfers when all is said and done. Between graduations, transfers and early declarations for the draft, it's currently pretty much Obekpa and Derrick Jones against the world. But at least they'll block a lot of shots.
10. St. Bonaventure Bonnies
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Matt Mobley (with Central Connecticut State): 17.2 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 1.8 APG
David Andoh (with Liberty): 10.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG
Those are impressive numbers being added to a roster that is losing two of its top three scorers from last season, but let's be sure to consider the source.
Liberty and Central Connecticut State went a combined 13-50 in 2014-15. KenPom.com had them rated No. 329 and 341, respectively, for that season. Getting double-digit scorers from those rosters is hardly a bragging point.
Then again, it's hardly Mobley's fault that CCSU was so bad. He led the team in O-rating and shot 35.7 percent from three-point range, despite opposing teams doubtlessly realizing that he was the only reliable source of offense for the Blue Devils.
Moreover, Liberty had just about the worst offense in the entire country, and there's only so much a power forward can do when there aren't any guards on the roster who can get him the ball. But Andoh also struggled mightily as a freshman at San Jose State, so we have our doubts that he's going to develop into an unstoppable force with St. Bonaventure.
9. Arizona State Sun Devils
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Shannon Evans (with Buffalo): 15.4 PPG, 4.6 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1.7 SPG
Bobby Hurley isn't the only person who transitioned from Buffalo to Arizona State last summer. However, he was allowed to coach right away while Evans rode the pine, waiting for his chance to sign this coming season.
Justin Moss was the name from Buffalo that most people knew, but Evans was arguably the best player for the Bulls, as evidenced by his triple-double in December 2014.
Evans led Buffalo in three-point attempts, assists and steals, so he'll be a welcome addition to an Arizona State team losing its two best three-point shooters (Jonathan Gilling and Bo Barnes) and its best defender (Shaq McKissic).
And unlike most transfers, we already know Evans gets along well with his "new" head coach. He knows the playbook well enough to start from day one, which should make him an immediate contributor.
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8. Xavier Musketeers
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RaShid Gaston (with Norfolk State): 15.5 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.2 BPG
With James Farr graduating and Jalen Reynolds testing the draft waters, the Musketeers need a new shot-blocker who can also score and rebound.
Based on what he did for three years at Norfolk State, Gaston could be that guy. The big man had 18 double-doubles as a junior, including 28 points and 10 rebounds in 40 minutes of action against Hofstra. It's not often we see a center play an entire game.
However, there are legitimate concerns about how he'll do against "real" competition. He had a combined total of 20 points and 19 rebounds in three games against Baylor, Georgia and Vanderbilt in 2014-15, and he failed to score a single point against Miami in 2013-14.
If Gaston can become a more reliable post presence, Xavier could be in the running for the Big East regular-season crown.
7. Marquette Golden Eagles
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Andrew Rowsey (with UNC Asheville): 19.2 PPG, 2.9 APG, 2.8 RPG, 1.4 SPG
The moment he decided to transfer, Rowsey became the most sought-after commodity in the country.
The now-junior guard made 208 three-pointers while shooting 39.3 percent beyond the arc in his 63 games with UNC Asheville, averaging 19.7 points per game for a team that was otherwise starved for offensive production.
Rowsey scored at least 20 points in each of his first eight games in 2014-15, including a 26-point performance in the opener against Wake Forest and a 30-point game against South Carolina. Regardless of the defense, this guy is a scorer.
Marquette does have three returning guards who averaged at least 10 points per game last season, as well as an incoming trio of 4-star recruits who are all 6'7" or shorter. Thus, he's going to have trouble getting the playing time that his talent deserves. But the Golden Eagles will be tough to beat, even if Rowsey is only their sixth man.
6. Minnesota Golden Gophers
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Reggie Lynch (with Illinois State): 9.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.8 BPG, 0.7 SPG
Davonte Fitzgerald (with Texas A&M): 3.5 PPG, 1.6 RPG
Lynch didn't play a ton in his two seasons with the Redbirds, but he was the best shot-blocker in the country in both years, according to KenPom.com. He blocked at least two shots in each of the final 25 games of his freshman season and had eight games with at least five blocks in 2014-15.
Between those two years, he averaged one blocked shot for every 7.5 minutes on the court. As an entire team, the Golden Gophers only blocked 112 shots last season. Lynch blocked 93 in 731 minutes two years ago. Needless to say, he'll be a welcome addition on a team that lost 18 of its final 20 games.
Fitzgerald could also be a key contributor, provided the Golden Gophers don't push him out the way the Aggies did.
Fitzgerald averaged 7.3 points in just 15.7 minutes per game as a freshman, but he received even less playing time (9.6 MPG) the following year after Texas A&M added transfers Danuel House and Jalen Jones. Fitzgerald did not play in eight games and played sparingly when he did get onto the court.
It was far from a surprise when he decided to transfer, but Minnesota should be a good home for him. With Carlos Morris and Joey King both graduating, Fitzgerald may well be the primary forward and three-point shooter for the Golden Gophers.
5. San Diego State Aztecs
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Montaque Gill-Caesar (with Missouri): 9.1 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 0.7 SPG, 0.5 APG
Max Hoetzel (with Indiana): 2.4 PPG, 1.3 RPG
Hoetzel never got much of a chance at Indiana. He had 19 points and nine rebounds in the season-opener against Mississippi Valley State, but he had just 54 points and 32 rebounds from that point forward. The freshman had a nice debut in a game the Hoosiers won by a 51-point margin before becoming a scarcely used benchwarmer.
But at 6'8" with legitimate three-point range, he could have a second life with the Aztecs, as they are losing 6'8" Winston Shepard, 6'9" Angelo Chol and 6'10" Skylar Spencer to graduation.
Gill-Caesar is the much more intriguing addition, though, as the shooting guard was rated as the No. 35 overall recruit by 247Sports before spending one physically and emotionally painful season with 9-23 Missouri. He started out well, averaging 12.4 points through his first 12 games, but back spasms caused him to miss five SEC games. He never looked the same as he did in those first six weeks.
Sitting out a year and getting a fresh start elsewhere might have been the best medicine money could buy. He was shooting 37.3 percent from three-point range through those first 12 games, which would make him one of SDSU's best shooters.
4. Clemson Tigers
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Marcquise Reed (with Robert Morris): 15.1 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.9 SPG
Shelton Mitchell (with Vanderbilt): 4.3 PPG, 3.3 APG, 1.9 RPG
Junior forward Jaron Blossomgame declared for the NBA draft process without hiring an agent, but if he comes back for one final year, 2016-17 could be Clemson's best season since last reaching the Sweet 16 in 1997.
The Tigers do lose Jordan Roper and Landry Nnoko to graduation, but a frontcourt trio of Blossomgame, Donte Grantham and Sidy Djitte could help do a lot of damage if these two guards pan out.
Though he was the less productive of the duo two years ago, Mitchell was the highest-rated recruit in Vanderbilt's strong 2014 class. However, he shot miserably from three-point range (22.6 percent) and didn't record nearly enough assists (102) to make up for the number of turnovers he committed (60) as a pass-first point guard.
There simply wasn't enough room at the table for every Commodore to have a seat, and Mitchell played his way out of one before electing to transfer. But he's clearly a talented player who didn't fit in well at Vanderbilt.
Reed, on the other hand, was a complete unknown before blossoming as a star in his one season with Robert Morris. He, too, had serious turnover issues (90 in 35 games), but few freshman combo guards are ready to play turnover-free hoops. It's hard to hold that against a guy who shot 41.3 percent from three-point range and played defense while leading Robert Morris to a 20-win season.
Clemson hasn't had much of a turnover-forcing defense in the past four years, and it ranked in the bottom 100 in the country in both three-point percentage and assist percentage from 2012-15. An upgrade in the backcourt has been long overdue, and these could be the guards who get it done.
3. North Carolina State Wolfpack
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Torin Dorn (with Charlotte): 12.0 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1.3 APG
Terry Henderson (with West Virginia in 2013-14): 11.7 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.1 APG, 0.8 SPG
Technically, Henderson did appear in a game with NC State this past season. He played just seven minutes in the opener before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. But let's go ahead and not count that, since those seven minutes will represent Henderson's only time on the court in roughly 31 months by the time the 2016-17 season begins.
Once upon a time, though, he was a solid shooting guard, connecting on 38.7 percent of his three-point attempts in two seasons with the Mountaineers. And this Wolfpack team desperately needs some scorers with Cat Barber and Abdul Malik-Abu declaring for the draft and Caleb and Cody Martin transferring out of the program.
Good thing they're adding two scoring guards, then. As a freshman down the road at Charlotte, Dorn led the 49ers in scoring while playing 27.5 minutes per game. He shot 34.2 percent from three-point range and connected on 56.6 percent of his shots from inside the arc.
Alongside stud freshman point guard Dennis Smith, Henderson and Dorn should get plenty of scoring opportunities in a backcourt that might be good enough to surprise some people by finishing in the top half of the ACC standings.
2. La Salle Explorers
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Demetrius Henry (with South Carolina): 6.0 PG, 3.6 RPG, 0.9 BPG
Pookie Powell (with Memphis): 4.3 PPG, 2.7 APG, 1.3 RPG, 0.7 SPG
B.J. Johnson (with Syracuse): 4.2 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 0.6 SPG
On the one hand, these three guys didn't do much with their old schools. Henry, Powell and Johnson combined for just 14.5 points and 8.1 rebounds per game as sophomores and did even less the year before. So, based solely on past production, there's no good reason to expect much here.
However, all three of these players were rated as top-100 recruits in 2013 by 247Sports. Powell (81), Johnson (90) and Henry (98) failed to live up to their potential, but 4-star recruits don't exactly grow on trees for La Salle.
The only way the Explorers have been able to get a player that talented is via transfer, and the last one worked out pretty well. Jordan Price was a 4-star recruit who Auburn signed for the 2012-13 season, but he bolted to La Salle after one disappointing season in which he averaged just 5.4 points per game. Since then, he has averaged 18.2 points in 64 games with La Salle.
That isn't to say that all three of these transfers are destined to blossom into stars just because Price did, but they'll certainly be given more of a chance to shine than they were with their former programs. Don't be surprised if the Explorers are substantially better than the team that went 9-22 this past season.
1. Gonzaga Bulldogs
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Nigel Williams-Goss (with Washington): 15.6 PPG, 5.9 APG, 4.7 RPG, 1.1 SPG
Johnathan Williams III (with Missouri): 11.9 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 0.8 APG, 0.6 BPG
With Kyle Wiltjer, Eric McClellan and Kyle Dranginis graduating and Domantas Sabonis declaring for the NBA draft, Gonzaga is starting over from scratch. Even if Przemek Karnowski is healthy enough to return to action, he, Josh Perkins and Silas Melson are pretty much the only holdovers from a team that needed to win the WCC tournament to make the NCAA tournament.
Fortunately, help is on the way.
After what he did with the Huskies for two years, Williams-Goss probably could have gone anywhere in the country. The former McDonald's All-American was originally recruited by the likes of Arizona, Miami, UCLA and UNLV before emerging as a nightly triple-double threat. Williams-Goss and Perkins should be one heck of a fun backcourt duo to watch.
Better yet, they're also getting a quality big man to feed the rock.
Williams had a frustrating two seasons with Missouri, committing a ton of turnovers as a sophomore when he was pretty much the only frontcourt player the Tigers had. But "frustrating" and "Missouri" have gone hand-in-hand over the past few seasons, and the big man needed a fresh start elsewhere.
JW3 and NWG will be the reason Gonzaga makes its 19th consecutive NCAA tournament appearance in 2017.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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