NCAA Tournament 2016: Everything You Need to Know About the Elite Eight
For the eight remaining teams in the 2016 NCAA tournament, it's three wins down and three to go.
For the time being, though, let's focus on the first of those three wins each member of this octet is seeking. We dug into each Elite Eight matchup to pinpoint the biggest storylines, stars, X-factors and underrated players to watch this weekend.
Did you know that regardless of what happens when Oklahoma and Oregon square off Saturday, Lon Kruger and Dana Altman—though they have just one career Final Four appearance between them—will finish the night with 111 more combined D-I wins than Duke's Mike Krzyzewski?
Could something as fundamental as rebounding be what determines the outcome of Kansas-Villanova? Is any team in the country hotter than Syracuse? And after all the hubbub over parity in college basketball this season, wouldn't it be something if all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four for just the second time in history?
Before the regional finals get underway, be sure to educate yourself with some of the factoids that lie within. There's only one game going on at a time from here on out, so you'll want to know more about these contests that you'll be watching from start to finish.
Schedule and TV Info
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Saturday, March 26
No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Oklahoma, 6:09 p.m. ET (CBS)
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 2 Villanova, 8:49 p.m. ET (CBS)
Sunday, March 27
No. 1 Virginia vs. No. 10 Syracuse, 6:09 p.m. ET (TBS)
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 6 Notre Dame, 8:49 p.m. ET (TBS)
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 2 Villanova
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How They Got Here
Kansas and Villanova left little doubt en route to the Elite Eight, winning their six games by a combined 126 points—and each one by at least 12. For the Jayhawks, it was business as usual, as they have now won 17 in a row. The Wildcats, on the other hand, are playing their best basketball of the season—particularly on the defensive end of the court. Add in their red-hot three-point shooting, and poor Iowa and Miami never stood a chance.
Individual Battle to Watch: Perry Ellis vs. Kris Jenkins
Perry Ellis did a great job against Maryland's pick-and-pop offense and has dealt with his fair share of stretch 4s this season (Baylor's Taurean Prince, Texas' Connor Lammert and Iowa State's Georges Niang, to name a few.) Kris Jenkins is averaging 19.6 points and shooting 50 percent (41-of-82) from three over his last 11 games, but if Ellis can stifle his offense while taking advantage of Jenkins' defense—opposing power forwards like Providence's Ben Bentil and Virginia's Anthony Gill have faced little resistance against Villanova—that's a huge edge for Kansas.
Upset Potential: Medium
The Wildcats shot 10-of-15 (66.7 percent) from three-point range Thursday night in the KFC Yum! Center. A repeat performance could do the trick, but it takes 40 minutes of near-perfect basketball to beat the Jayhawks these days. The Terrapins played well for 32 minutes against Kansas, but after a five-minute cold spell, the Jayhawks won by 16.
No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Oklahoma
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How They Got Here
Both Oregon and Oklahoma took a bit of a rocky road to the West Regional semifinals. The Ducks trailed late into the second half against Saint Joseph's in the second round. The Sooners led Cal St. Bakersfield by just four points with four minutes remaining in the first round and were clinging to a one-possession lead with one minute to go against VCU. But they both asserted their dominance in the Sweet 16, dismissing Duke and Texas A&M, respectively, by 14 points apiece.
Individual Battle to Watch: Dillon Brooks vs. Buddy Hield
Between Elgin Cook, Chris Boucher and Jordan Bell, Oregon's frontcourt depth and prowess should be more than Oklahoma can handle, but Buddy Hield is the great equalizer. The potential Wooden Award winner is averaging 26.7 points per game in the tournament and has scored 33 points or more three times in his last eight games. Dillon Brooks is no slouch, though, and the Ducks should win if he stays within 10 points of Hield.
Upset Potential: High
Oregon has been underrated all season long, but the Sooners were No. 1 in the AP Top 25 for a while. They struggled to find their collective three-point stroke in February, but they are shooting 42.3 percent and averaging 10 makes per game in the tournament. If that teams shows up for one more night and remains more committed to the long ball than Duke was against the Ducks, Oklahoma can pull off this minor seed upset.
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No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
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How They Got Here
After a slow first half in its tournament opener against Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina has righted its ship, most recently dropping 101 points on Indiana in the Sweet 16. Meanwhile, Notre Dame seems to be lucking its way through games, coming back from a 12-point halftime deficit against Michigan before needing miraculous finishes against Stephen F. Austin and Wisconsin. There's no question which team has been playing better heading into this game.
Individual Battle to Watch: Brice Johnson vs. Bonzie Colson
Both times the Tar Heels and Fighting Irish squared off this season, Bonzie Colson led Notre Dame in scoring and North Carolina star Brice Johnson had less than magical performances. When the Fighting Irish pulled off the upset in early February, Colson recorded 19 points (which tied Demetrius Jackson for the team lead) and 10 rebounds, while Johnson needed 16 shots to score 14 points. If Notre Dame is going to catch lightning in a bottle again, it starts with the tilt at power forward.
Upset Potential: Low
These teams are wildly different than they were in early February. The 31-point drubbing North Carolina delivered in the ACC tournament is the more likely outcome. The Tar Heels look almost unbeatable, and the Fighting Irish offense has been floundering for more than a month.
No. 1 Virginia vs. No. 10 Syracuse
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How They Got Here
In a bizarre turn of events, Virginia is winning with its offense, while Syracuse is surviving with its defense. The Cavaliers are averaging 80.7 points per tournament game, including Friday night's 84-71 win over Iowa State that at times was much uglier than the final margin indicates. The Orange have held their three opponents to a Virginia-like 53.7 points per game.
Individual Battle to Watch: Malcolm Brogdon vs. Michael Gbinije
Assuming Virginia doesn't waste Malcolm Brogdon's defensive prowess on a three-point shooter like Trevor Cooney, this is the matchup we'll see for most of the night. Michael Gbinije had a game-high 24 points in the only regular-season meeting between the Cavaliers and the Orange, and he and Malachi Richardson combined for 11 of Syracuse's 13 made triples in the game. But Virginia had little difficulty picking apart the 2-3 zone en route to shooting 56.8 percent from the field.
Upset Potential: Medium
Syracuse was the only team all season to make more than 10 three-pointers against the Cavaliers, and you better believe the Orange will let them fly Sunday—because the long ball is the best way to attack Virginia's pack-line defense. But even with those 13 made threes in January and even with the Cavaliers committing an usually high number of turnovers (13), they still won by eight. An awful lot of things will need to go right for Syracuse to win.
Biggest Storylines
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Repeat of 2008?
In the nearly four decades since the NCAA tournament selection committee began officially seeding teams in 1978, 2008 was the only time all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four. But don't go thinking it's a foregone conclusion Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia and Oregon will all win one more game. This is the eighth time four No. 1 seeds have reached the Elite Eight (1987, 1993, 2001, 2003, 2007, 2008 and 2009), and at least two of the top seeds failed to reach the Final Four in five of those seven tournaments.
Showdown of Underappreciated Head Coaches
Usually at this time of year, we're marveling over yet another Elite Eight appearance by one or some combination of Mike Krzyzewski, Tom Izzo and John Calipari. Those guys will be watching from home, however, when Oklahoma's Lon Kruger and Oregon's Dana Altman take their combined 57 years of head coaching experience and 1,153 wins into a head-to-head fight for a trip to the Final Four.
Potential Epic Rematches
No matter what happens, we always find a way to hype Final Four matchups. But we won't even need to try if it ends up being the Big 12 elite on the left side of the bracket and the ACC elite on the right. Kansas and Oklahoma delivered two of the best games of the regular season, and North Carolina and Virginia had a darn fine pair of showdowns as well. It would make for one of the best Final Fours ever if we got Round III in each of those conference tilts in advance of an ACC-Big 12 championship game.
Cinderella in Houston?
Historically speaking, Syracuse is just about the furthest thing from a Cinderella story. In 2016, though, the Orange are the closest thing we've got to an underdog story. They were a controversial tournament inclusion, but like VCU in 2011, they have seized the opportunity afforded them. Can they win one more game to crash a party that seems to be reserved for teams that didn't lose to St. John's during the regular season?
Stars to Watch
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Buddy Hield, Oklahoma
Perhaps you prefer Michigan State's Denzel Valentine for National Player of the Year. Maybe you'd rather watch stud freshmen like LSU's Ben Simmons, Duke's Brandon Ingram or Kentucky's Jamal Murray. But all of those guys are done, which leaves Buddy Hield as unarguably the country's best player left in the tournament. If anyone remaining in the field is going to single-handedly take over a game, it's the one who finished with 36 points against VCU despite being held scoreless for the first 10½ minutes.
Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia
If there's a case to be made for a best remaining player not named Hield, it's got to be Malcolm Brogdon. At any rate, if Oklahoma and Virginia were to meet in the national championship game, it would make for one heck of a shooting guard slugfest. He doesn't always score a ton—he's averaging 15 points through three tournament games—but his defense, toughness and court vision make him possibly the most indispensable player in the country.
Wayne Selden Jr., Kansas
He was mysteriously absent for much of the Big 12 regular season, but Wayne Selden Jr. is averaging 19 points, 5.3 rebounds and three assists in his last four games. With Perry Ellis averaging 21.1 points over his last eight games, Kansas has arguably the best one-two punch left in the tournament—and the rest of its starting five isn't too shabby, either.
Brice Johnson, North Carolina
North Carolina is loaded with studs who can score 20 points in a game, but Johnson is the only one (almost) averaging that many. The best remaining power forward in the tournament picked up his 22nd double-double of the season in the Tar Heels' rout of Indiana in the Sweet 16. Through three games, Johnson is averaging 19.7 points, nine rebounds and 4.3 blocks.
Underrated Players to Watch
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V.J. Beachem, Notre Dame
It's tough to remain underrated while leading your team in scoring twice in three tournament games, but V.J. Beachem has somehow pulled it off. He's averaging 16.4 points over his last five games while shooting 53.3 percent from three and 62 percent overall. In Notre Dame's Sweet 16 win over Wisconsin, Beachem scored 16 second-half points and notched three steals.
Jordan Bell, Oregon
There are a handful of quality sixth men remaining in the tournament, but what a luxury Oregon has in bringing a guy off the bench who is averaging 7.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.8 blocks and 1.4 steals over his last five games. Jordan Bell's ability to erase any shot within eight feet of the hoop allows the Ducks to defend aggressively along the perimeter.
Tyler Lydon, Syracuse
I'll never understand why this stud comes in off the bench because he is the best player on this roster not named Michael Gbinije. Tyler Lydon recorded the game-sealing block and two free throws in the final five seconds of Syracuse's Sweet 16 win over Gonzaga. He has 32 points, 18 rebounds and 13 blocks in three NCAA tournament contests. By the way, he's a freshman.
Mikal Bridges, Villanova
Villanova's roster makes up an entire group of underrated players to watch, but redshirt freshman Mikal Bridges is one heck of a weapon not many people know about. Similar to Indiana's OG Anunoby, Bridges comes off the bench and plays around 20 minutes of excellent defense and efficient offense per game. Among the Wildcats' eight regulars, he leads the team in steal percentage (2.9) and two-point percentage (70.7) and ranks second to Daniel Ochefu in block percentage (3.7), per kenpom.com.
Biggest X-Factors
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Kansas vs. Villanova: Jayhawks Rebounding
Kansas was an above-average rebounding team for most of the season, but the glass has been its best friend in the NCAA tournament. The Jayhawks had a 44-24 rebounding margin in the second round against Connecticut and a 43-28 edge Thursday against Maryland. Villanova has a couple of solid rebounders, but that has not been a strength of the Wildcats this season. In what should be a close game, a third consecutive double-digit advantage on the boards could be the deciding factor for Kansas.
Oregon vs. Oklahoma: Sooners Turnovers
For a team as guard-oriented as Oklahoma is, the Sooners aren't great in the turnover department. In fact, they have committed 450 this season while forcing just 445. Meanwhile, Oregon has a turnover margin of plus-100 for the year and has committed an average of just 7.6 over its last five games. If the Ducks can take care of the ball and get a few fast-break opportunities courtesy of Oklahoma carelessness, that could be the difference.
Virginia vs. Syracuse: Orange Blocks
As the most patient offense in the country, Virginia rarely gets its shots blocked. In fact, the Cavaliers rank third in the nation in offensive block percentage, per kenpom.com, and have had only three shots blocked in the tournament. Led by Tyler Lydon, Syracuse has one of the better shot-blocking defenses in the country, but that didn't faze Virginia during the teams' regular-season showdown. The Orange failed to block a single shot in that game and will likely lose again if they post another goose egg (or should we call it an Easter egg?) in that category Sunday.
North Carolina vs. Notre Dame: Tar Heels Offensive Rebounds
There might not be a bigger mismatch in the Elite Eight than North Carolina on the offensive glass vs. Notre Dame on the defensive glass. The Tar Heels rank fourth in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, per kenpom.com, while the Fighting Irish rank 270th in defensive rebounding percentage. And Notre Dame hasn't gotten any better since its two games against UNC earlier this season. In the Fighting Irish's last two contests, Stephen F. Austin and Wisconsin combined to corral 39.1 percent of available offensive boards. With another strong effort on the offensive glass, the Tar Heels won't have many empty trips.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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