Jakob Poeltl's NBA Draft Gamble Looks Better and Better as Utah Soph Thrives

Jakob Poeltl spent months last spring debating whether to leave for the NBA or stay for his sophomore season at Utah. Finally, Poeltl put the question up to his coach: Do you think I'm ready?

Utah coach Larry Krystkowiak is as well-prepared to answer that question as any. He played nine seasons in the NBA and spent another three years in the league as a coach—including one season as the head coach of the Milwaukee Bucks—and Krystkowiak is not the type to skate around the truth.

Krystkowiak looked his star center right in the eye and told him, "There's no way you're ready."

Through the first month of his sophomore season, it appears that Poeltl, who was projected to go in the middle of the first round in the 2015 draft, made a wise decision.

The Austrian is the most dominant center in college basketball, averaging 19.1 points on 69.9 percent shooting, 9.5 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game for the 8-2 Utes, who take on Duke this Saturday at Madison Square Garden.

Gene Sweeney Jr./Getty Images

Poeltl arrived on the scene last year as an unknown. Austria is not a hotbed for basketball talent—the country has never had an NBA player—and Utah discovered the big man playing on his under-18 Austrian team that finished 20th out of 22 teams in the second-tier B Division of the 2013 European Championship in Macedonia.

But Poeltl quickly became a hot prospect during his freshman season based off his defensive ability as a true 7-foot center, quick feet and soft hands.

He was extremely efficient as a freshman—he averaged 9.1 points on 68.1 percent shooting—and his defense helped the Utes jump from 36th in adjusted defensive efficiency in 2013-14 to sixth last year, per kenpom.com. Utah made the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2009 and nearly ended Duke's championship run in the Sweet 16.

Poeltl outplayed Jahlil Okafor in that game, and his play in the NCAA tournament only helped his draft stock.

	Points	Rebounds	Blocks
Poeltl	10	8	3
Okafor	6	8	2

Krystkowiak, however, saw weaknesses that he believed he could correct with another year of seasoning.

"The one comment that I made to [he and his family] in the process, it was being talked about that Jakob was a survivor and he's going to be fine," Krystkowiak said. "I looked right at his mom and I said, 'This isn't about—I've got kids of my own—this isn't about raising your kids so they can survive. This is about raising your kids so they can thrive.'

"I think that hit home with them. It's something that is going to be there. What is it going to take to reach his potential? I think it involved more college."

By returning, Poeltl also had a chance to become Utah's go-to guy and another year to mature.

"I wanted to improve as a basketball player before I went to the NBA, and then I really like my life and my situation with the basketball program here in Utah," Poeltl said. "So it was kind of like a combination of both of them. I didn't feel 100 percent ready for the NBA, and I felt like it was an even situation for me to stay one more year in Utah to improve and have a better chance to survive in the NBA maybe next year or in the future."

Utah has done everything to help guide his development. Last season, the offense was built around point guard Delon Wright. Krystkowiak laid out an offseason plan for Poeltl to get better, and the coach went to work on restructuring his offense to highlight a back-to-the-basket big man.

As a freshman, Poeltl was mostly an opportunistic scorer around the bucket. He thrived in the pick-and-roll with Wright, and his soft hands and quickness made him a dynamite cutter. But to become more of a scorer, he needed to improve his back-to-the-basket game and become a better free-throw shooter—he made just 44.4 percent of his free throws as a freshman.

Play type	Possessions	Points	FG%
Post-up	78	65	59.6
Cut	74	94	72.2
Putback	60	69	65.9
P&R roll man	30	30	66.7
Transition	16	16	100.0
Spot-up	12	12	25.0

The Utah coaches helped Poeltl revamp his free-throw routine and got rid of some bad habits, such as watching the ball. He no longer takes any dribbles, and he's quickened his release so it's not so elongated. Poeltl is going to the line with more confidence, and he's making 65.3 percent of his free throws.

On his post-up game, the Utah coaches tried to slow Poeltl down and build his strength. He tried to work too quickly as a freshman, and Krystkowiak believes his struggles at the line may have played a part.

"He was always trying to out-quick somebody, which meant a couple things—you could never get a rebound if he missed and he certainly was never getting fouled," Krystkowiak said. "I think that took a toll a little bit. Maybe the quick post moves was subconsciously he never wanted to get fouled."

Poeltl was also predictable when he got the ball in the post. He was right-hand dominant and rarely made a move over his right shoulder. During the offseason, he worked on slowing down when he gets the ball on the blocks, and he's learned how to react to the defense.

"I would still say I'm dominant right hand, but I have developed a couple counters," Poeltl said. That's something that I probably didn't have last year. I wasn't confident with my left hook. It gives me different options. A team can't park on my left shoulder anymore, because if you give me the left hook, I'm gonna make it."

This season Poeltl has already scored 59 points on post-ups through 10 games, which is only six points short of what he scored on post-ups over the entire season last year, according to Synergy Sports.

The Utes have been clever in their play designs to get Poeltl touches, and it also helps that they can surround the big man with three-point shooters—seven different Utes have made at least five threes.

That makes it hard to double-team Poeltl, but single-covering him has been the equivalent of defensive suicide. He's making 80.8 percent of his shots on post-ups when single-covered, per Synergy.

Gene Sweeney Jr./Getty Images

"A lot of teams have played me straight up and I've taken my chance with that," Poeltl said. "If I'm in a one-on-one situation, I should go to work because I am a pretty good post player and that's a good shot for our team."

The kind of efficiency Poeltl puts up is rare for a go-to scorer. He is one of four players nationally with an offensive rating over 128.0 who also uses at least 27.0 percent of his team's possessions, according to kenpom.com.

No matter how Utah gets him the ball, he's scoring efficiently.

Play type	Possessions	Points	FG%
Post-up	50	59	71.4
Cut	29	38	70.8
Putback	26	34	72.2
P&R roll man	12	15	55.6
Transition	6	9	100.0
Spot-up	8	9	50.0
Isolation	5	6	60.0

"He doesn't take bad shots or put himself in bad position," Krystkowiak said. "Again, he's an ultra-, ultra-great teammate where it probably bothers him more than anybody on our team when he or somebody else takes a bad shot. He's the kind of kid that's not going to put himself at risk, take a bad shot and maybe hurt the team, so he's always thinking high-percentage opportunities whenever he can."

Poeltl has also cleaned up his defense this season. This summer the Utah coaches showed him every single foul he committed as a freshman and broke down why he was fouling.

"I thought he needed to see them, and some were lack of strength and some were just silly freshman fouls," Krystkowiak said. "Some were not being known and being from Europe and not knowing how the game was played and what was a foul."

Poeltl is now committing only 2.5 fouls per 40 minutes—compared to 4.1 per 40 last year—and he's only been in foul trouble in one game. He had four fouls in a win over Texas Tech.

Not only has his awareness improved, he said he also feels stronger. He's added 30 pounds over the last two years since he arrived at Utah.

"Some guys after the third year or fourth year, they make a jump," an NBA scout told Bleacher Report. "He just seems like one of those guys who keeps steadily improving every year."

The scout said he believes that Poeltl will be a top-15 pick—potentially top 10—and most draft sites have him going in the top 10 (see chart).

	Pick
NBADraft.net	4th
DraftExpress.com	9th
Bleacher Report	7th

"He made the right decision staying, and Krystkowiak is the perfect coach for him," the scout said. He's on a really good track. He's ready for the league. ... If he's not a solid starter, he's going to be one of the better backup centers in the league."

Poeltl is one of the least risky picks in the 2016 draft because he stayed in school. Not only do general managers have two years of data that show he can produce, but there are countless examples of why he'll be good for the culture of any team.

A prime example is what happened in Utah's final game last season, a six-point loss to Duke. Poeltl helped slow down Okafor in that game, holding the current 76er to a season-low six points. Several draft blogs used that performance in the head-to-head matchup to suggest that Poeltl was ready for the league.

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

But when that game and his role in slowing Okafor are brought up, Poeltl quickly responds, "Well, we kind of shut down Okafor. It was a team defense kind of thing. We had a plan prepared and it worked out really well."

Poeltl says that it doesn't matter to him if he leaves after this season for the NBA or stays in school even longer. "I just want to do my best for my team this year," he said. "I really want to go back to the NCAA tournament. That was one of the funnest experiences with basketball in my life." 

But when it comes time to make that NBA decision again, and he asks Krystkowiak if he's ready, the coach should be able to look him in the eye and have a different answer. 

Yes, now you're ready. 

C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.