NCAA Basketball Teams Most Likely to Run Away with 2015-16 Conference Titles
Most regular-season conference titles in men's college basketball aren't decided until the very last game, but there is always a handful in which one team simply runs away with the crown.
Over the past two seasons, there have been 19 instances of first place and second place in the final conference standings featuring a gap of at least three games. For argument's sake, that's our definition of running away with a title.
If there's one team that's all but guaranteed to do that this season, it's the Wichita State Shockers. Ron Baker, Fred VanVleet and head coach Gregg Marshall are back. The Shockers filled a much-needed hole by adding Cleveland State Vikings transfer Anton Grady. And, frankly, the rest of the conference isn't looking very good for next season. Add it all up, and they're at the top spot on the list.
Based on a combination of returning players, incoming players and players departing from other noteworthy teams in the conference, here is our list of the 10 teams most likely to dominate their respective conferences in 2015-16, listed in ascending order of confidence.
10. Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers (Northeast)
1 of 10
2014-15 Season: 15-15 overall, 11-7 in Northeast
Potential Challengers: Robert Morris
The Northeast Conference has consistently been one of the 10 worst men's college basketball conferences for as long as I can remember, but it might be extra bad this season. Mount St. Mary's is our favorite—but only because the Mountaineers are the only team that hasn't been ravaged by departures.
St. Francis (N.Y.) won the NEC regular-season title by a three-game margin, but the Terriers have lost perhaps the two best players in the entire conference, as Brent Jones and Jalen Cannon have graduated. Robert Morris won the conference tournament, but the Colonials have lost Lucky Jones to graduation and Marcquise Reed to Clemson.
Bryant has lost Dyami Starks and Joe O'Shea, St. Francis (Pa.) has lost a stud in Earl Brown and Sacred Heart will be without four of its top seven minutes-earners.
In the middle of all that carnage, Mount St. Mary's figures to rise from the ashes while getting back all four of its leading scorers. Byron Ashe has to be one of the early favorites for NEC Player of the Year after averaging 15.3 points per game over his final 15 games last season.
We can't sleep on Robert Morris, though. Andy Toole is one of the best young coaches in the game, and he still has a pretty darn good tandem in Rodney Pryor and Elijah Minnie. Depending on how well the other Colonials develop throughout the nonconference portion of the season, this could be a two-horse race.
9. Wofford Terriers (Southern)
2 of 10
2014-15 Season: 28-7 overall, 16-2 in Southern
Potential Challengers: Chattanooga
The Terriers lost only one player to graduation this summer, but replacing the Southern Conference Player of the Year won't be easy. In nearly every way, Karl Cochran was the best player for Wofford last season. He led the team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, and he was a solid three-point shooter to boot.
Fortunately, each of Wofford's primary contenders has lost at least one gigantic piece as well.
Mercer moves on without Ike Nwamu or T.J. Hallice. East Tennessee State has lost Jalen Riley and Rashawn Rembert. Western Carolina won't have James Sinclair, nor will Chattanooga have Ronrico White.
All six of those players ranked in the top 20 in win shares among SoCon players, per Sports-Reference.com, and logged a ton of minutes for their respective teams.
The only team from that bunch that probably won't take a sizable step backward is Chattanooga. The Mocs finished one game behind Wofford last season and still have a solid rotation built around Greg Pryor, Casey Jones and Justin Tuoyo.
But Wofford has a strong core, too, and has been the most consistently good team in this conference over the past six seasons—excluding Davidson, now that the Wildcats are in the Atlantic 10. Cochran was the star, but Lee Skinner and Spencer Collins were good sidekicks who should be ready to steer the ship as seniors.
8. Maryland Terrapins (Big Ten)
3 of 10
2014-15 Season: 28-7 overall, 14-4 in Big Ten
Potential Challengers: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
This is a tricky one to argue for because there are many viable contenders in the Big Ten.
Indiana's three-point assault remains intact, while the team adds two much-needed big men in Max Bielfeldt and Thomas Bryant. Michigan gets Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton Jr. back from foot injuries after a season in which just about everyone else on the roster showed significant improvement. Michigan State could be even better than last year's Final Four team with Eron Harris and Deyonta Davis in the fold. Purdue's frontcourt is ridiculous.
Wisconsin still has head coach Bo Ryan.
But the Terrapins have to be the prohibitive favorites in the Big Ten because they are one of the only teams in the running to open the season ranked No. 1 in the country.
With Melo Trimble coming back and Diamond Stone, Robert Carter Jr. and Rasheed Sulaimon coming in, it's almost impossible to find a weakness on Maryland's roster. That isn't to say this team will go undefeated—Maryland will probably be the best team in 2015-16, but we can't legitimately compare the Terrapins to the 2014-15 Kentucky Wildcats—but it's hard to imagine its losing more than two or three conference games, provided it stays healthy.
Jake Layman could be the piece that pushes Maryland over the top. Terrapins fans talk about Layman like he is a deity, but I get the impression that basketball fans outside of College Park barely even recognize his name.
Whether most people know him or not, Layman should (continue to) play the type of role that Sam Dekker did this past season for Wisconsin. With more help now in the frontcourt, Layman should be able to remain primarily on the perimeter as a 6'9" small forward with plenty of range.
And when he's hitting shots, Maryland will be unstoppable.
7. Montana Grizzlies (Big Sky)
4 of 10
2014-15 Season: 20-13 overall, 14-4 in Big Sky
Potential Challengers: Eastern Washington, Northern Arizona
In the major conferences, we're accustomed to watching dozens of underclassmen take their talents to the NBA draft every year. In the minor conferences, though, it's rare. Thus, Tyler Harvey's decision to forgo his final season at Eastern Washington was a real game-changer for 2015-16 Big Sky projections.
Had college basketball's leading scorer returned for another season, the Eagles inevitably would have been the favorites. They play no defense whatsoever, but with Harvey raining threes and Venky Jois destroying guys in the paint, the Eagles were able to outscore their opponents more often than not.
Instead, head coach Jim Hayford now has to figure out how to replace his entire backcourt, as starting point guard Drew Brandon and starting small forward Parker Kelly will also be gone after graduating.
That should be more than enough of an opening for Montana—which already finished in a tie for first place this past season—to run away with a Big Sky championship.
The Grizzlies do suffer a big loss with the graduation of Jordan Gregory (17.0 points per game), but they return a strong core of Martin Breunig, Brandon Gfeller, Mario Dunn and Fabijan Krslovic. Those aren't household names by any means, but Breunig could be by the end of the year. The power forward should be one of the best minor-conference players in the country.
6. UC Irvine Anteaters (Big West)
5 of 10
2014-15 Season: 21-13 overall, 11-5 in Big West
Potential Challengers: Hawaii
If they can stay healthy, it's just a question of whether the Anteaters will win the Big West Conference by a margin of three games or four.
With UC Davis losing its four best three-point shooters, Long Beach State losing its three leading scorers and UC Santa Barbara losing living legend Alan Williams, UC Irvine and Mamadou Ndiaye are clearly the giants in this conference. Will Davis and Travis Souza are big losses, but the Anteaters are bringing back considerably more talent than any other team that finished above .500 in Big West play last year.
That health concern is a major one, though.
Ndiaye missed 19 games last season due to a foot injury. Given the litany of big men who have dealt with foot or lower-back injuries throughout the years, we're forced to wonder whether it might be a recurring issue. Alex Young also missed a few games with a foot injury. Luke Nelson missed a couple of weeks in the middle of the season with a broken bone in his face.
Those are the three most important players to UC Irvine's cause this season. If any one of them misses extended time due to more injuries, Hawaii could take this conference instead.
The Rainbow Warriors were supposed to be terrible last year after losing head coach Gib Arnold and star player Isaac Fotu just weeks before the season began, but interim head coach Benjy Taylor incredibly led them to a 22-13 record. Nearly everyone from that team is back for another season.
Still, it's a team that went 0-3 against UC Irvine, so the Anteaters remain the team to beat until further notice.
5. Kentucky Wildcats
6 of 10
2014-15 Season: 38-1 overall, 18-0 in SEC
Potential Challengers: Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, LSU
It would be a big surprise if Kentucky doesn't win the SEC regular-season title this year, but it won't be anywhere near as easy as it was last year for the Wildcats to run away with it.
For starters, they aren't as good. This is still an extremely skilled roster that may spend the entire season ranked in the Top 10, but it's not an insult to point out that no team in the country will have the depth of talent that the Wildcats had in 2014-15.
A projected starting five of Tyler Ulis, Isaiah Briscoe, Charles Matthews, Alex Poythress and Skal Labissiere is strong, but it isn't "blue and white platoons" strong. Because of the internal changes, Kentucky is inevitably moving back to the SEC pack to some degree.
Externally, the pack is also moving closer to Kentucky.
Over the past few years, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M haven't been the usual suspects in the conversations about which teams could potentially challenge Kentucky, but that shouldn't make them any less likely to put up a fight this year. Both teams retain the vast majority of last year's 21-win rosters, including each bringing back all three of its leading scorers. The Commodores and Aggies are both poised for breakout years after barely missing the tournament this past March.
Elsewhere, LSU is reloading with some of the best freshmen in the country, including the possible No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NBA draft in Ben Simmons. If the returning guards continue to improve, the Tigers are going to be tough to beat.
Still, this is Kentucky we're talking about. The Wildcats have earned a No. 1 seed in three of the past six tournaments and have averaged 4.3 NCAA tournament games per season since head coach John Calipari's arrival.
They may not be as good as they were last year. The rest of the SEC might be better than it was last season. But there's still a big gap between Kentucky and its challengers.
4. Valparaiso Crusaders (Horizon League)
7 of 10
2014-15 Season: 28-6 overall, 13-3 in Horizon League
Potential Challengers: Oakland
In retrospect, Valparaiso should have been at least one or two spots higher on our list of teams most likely to repeat as conference champs.
Because the Crusaders won the Horizon League last season, it's not particularly difficult to argue that they were already the best team in this conference. Green Bay probably had the best player (Keifer Sykes), but Valparaiso had a more complete team with well-defined roles and quality players filling each of them.
Not only did they enter the offseason as the best team in the conference, but it's also easy to see that the Crusaders lost less than their counterparts did this summer.
Green Bay lost four of its top six scorers in Sykes, Greg Mays, Alfonzo McKinnie and Daeshon Francis. Cleveland State will be without all four of its leading scorers. Oakland was the only other team in the conference that didn't have an overall record at least two games below .500, and the Golden Grizzlies also lost a pair of crucial players in Corey Petros and Dante Williams.
Yet, if Iowa State transfer Percy Gibson can make a big impact for Oakland, it might be the only team with any hope of challenging Valpo for the title. Though they lost Petros and Williams, the Golden Grizzlies do still have Kahlil Felder, who might be the most underappreciated point guard in the country. Felder, Gibson and Max Hooper could make a strong minor-conference Big Three.
But Oakland has a ton of ground to make up to catch Valparaiso. The Crusaders have a big question mark in the frontcourt after losing Vashil Fernandez (2.9 blocks per game), but if Derrik Smits is anything like his dad, Rik, the 7'0" freshman could help lead head coach Alec Peters and Valpo to an extremely strong season.
3. Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast)
8 of 10
2014-15 Season: 35-3 overall, 17-1 in West Coast
Potential Challengers: BYU, Pepperdine
For the first time in a long time, Saint Mary's probably won't be a factor in the WCC race, as the Gaels have lost all five of their starters to graduation. But BYU should still be strong with Kyle Collinsworth leading the way, and Pepperdine ought to be a team on the rise in Stacy Davis' final season.
However, neither of those teams is on the same playing field as Gonzaga, as the Bulldogs seek to win the conference by a multigame margin for the fourth straight year.
The backcourt could be a project for head coach Mark Few. With Kevin Pangos, Gary Bell and Byron Wesley all graduating and transfer Nigel Williams-Goss not eligible until next season, it'll be up to some combination of Josh Perkins, Kyle Dranginis, Eric McClellan and Silas Melson to run the show.
The frontcourt, on the other hand, might be the best in the entire country.
Toward the end of last season, the three-headed monster of Kyle Wiltjer, Domantas Sabonis and Przemek Karnowski was about as unstoppable as it gets. The three weren't too shabby on defense, either, shutting down Iowa's center combo of Gabriel Olaseni and Adam Woodbury before holding Duke's Jahlil Okafor to just nine points and eight rebounds.
If Perkins is anywhere near as good of a point guard as he displayed in the five games before suffering a broken jaw, it's hard to imagine a WCC team beating Gonzaga, let alone finishing ahead of the Bulldogs in the conference standings.
2. Belmont Bruins (Ohio Valley)
9 of 10
2014-15 Season: 22-11 overall, 11-5 in Ohio Valley
Potential Challengers: Tennessee-Martin
As was the case with Mount St. Mary's, it seems almost impossible for Belmont not to gain significant ground on the rest of the conference due to the sheer number of key players that the other teams are losing.
A total of 10 Ohio Valley players averaged at least 13.8 points per game last season. Eight of those 10 players won't be back this year. The other two (Craig Bradshaw and Evan Bradds) return to Belmont.
In other words, the Bruins arguably have the two best players in the entire conference. Considering Murray State won the OVC by a five-game margin with two of the three best players in the conference, that's a good place for Belmont to be. The Bruins also have Taylor Barnette, who might be the best pure shooter in the conference.
Unlike Mount St. Mary's, Belmont was already good, ultimately representing the OVC in the NCAA tournament last year. Murray State was the only team that was clearly superior to Belmont over the course of the full season, and the Racers merely lost five of their seven leading scorers and their head coach (Steve Prohm).
It's tough to say whether this will finally be the year that Belmont wins a game in the NCAA tournament, but the Bruins should run amok through the OVC en route to a convincing conference title. Hopefully, they'll fare better as the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament than Murray State did.
1. Wichita State Shockers (Missouri Valley)
10 of 10
2014-15 Season: 30-5 overall, 17-1 in Missouri Valley
Potential Challengers: Evansville, Loyola-Chicago
Good luck finding another conference where the gap between the best team and the second-best team is this massive.
Basketball minds widely regard Wichita State as one of the 10 best teams heading into next season. Gary Parrish of CBS Sports ranked the Shockers ninth in his top 25 (and one) in late May, saying, "The Shockers should cruise in the MVC." ESPN.com's Jeff Goodman also had the Shockers at No. 9 in his preseason top-25 ballot (plus 25 more) in late May.
Goodman didn't have a single other Missouri Valley team in his top 50, summarizing in a nutshell just how far Northern Iowa figures to plummet after losing Seth Tuttle and three other seniors who played major minutes.
Unlike in the SEC, where trying to figure out Kentucky's top challenger is a matter of picking between three or four teams with great chances of spending some time in the AP Top 25, searching for Wichita State's runner-up is akin to sifting through the racks at a secondhand store for clothing that isn't flawed.
Evansville and Loyola-Chicago both had strong finishes to the season by winning the CBI and CIT championships, respectively, but it speaks volumes that the best potential challengers to Wichita State couldn't make the NCAA or NIT in 2015.
Evansville has a pair of outstanding players in D.J. Balentine and Egidijus Mockevicius, but the Purple Aces are a team on the fringe of receiving an invitation to the 2016 NCAA tournament.
Wichita State is a team on the fringe of winning it.
It's highly unlikely that the Shockers enter the tournament with a 34-0 record again, but as far as the MVC standings are concerned, we could be headed for a repeat of the 2013-14 season, when Wichita State won the title by a margin of six games.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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