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There isn't one specific stat to look for when trying to decide which team to pick in a given matchup. But based on the strengths and weaknesses of each squad, certain stats might be helpful in determining who has the edge.
You just have to know what the right stats are.
Start by searching for weaknesses in the favored team, and see if its opponent has the strengths to counter or cause some trouble.
One upset game that sticks out in my mind as a perfect example happened in 2011, when Morehead State upset Louisville in the first round. Louisville had been vulnerable on the glass all year—it was ranked No. 247 in the country in keeping opponents off the offensive boards, per KenPom.com's advanced stats (subscription required).
Morehead State had Kenneth Faried, the nation's leading rebounder. His team was No. 3 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage.
And Faried destroyed Louisville's interior, as he grabbed 17 boards in the No. 13-over-No. 4 upset win.
Sometimes, if you dig deep enough, you can find certain tells within the matchup. It takes time, but if you've got it, it could improve your chances of making the right call.