Definitely Dancing: Arizona, Colorado and UCLA
On the Bubble: Arizona State, California, Oregon, Stanford and Utah
Coveting the Bubble: None
Oregon (21-8, RPI: 31, KP: 29)
If they had just spaced out those eight losses a little better, the Ducks would be a stone-cold lock for the tournament.
They went 5-0 in the nonconference against the RPI Top 100 and have four RPI Top 100 wins in conference play.
Kansas State is the only other team in the country that is on the bubble with nine or more RPI Top 100 wins. The Wildcats have two more losses than Oregon and frankly aren't anywhere close to missing the tournament.
Oregon's one "bad" loss was a road game against an in-state rival just outside the RPI Top 100. The Ducks' only remaining regular-season game is against the best team in the country (Sorry, Florida).
Utah (18-9, RPI: 83, KP: 34)
RPI, ShmarPI. Utah has very much played its way onto the bubble with consecutive key wins over Arizona State, Colorado and California.
The Utes didn't do much to challenge themselves during the nonconference portion of the season, but that home win over BYU is sure looking pretty these days.
As a matter of fact, BYU might be the perfect comparison to show that this Utah team belongs in the tournament.
The Cougars are 3-5 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-6 vs. RPI Top 100 and have four losses to teams outside the RPI Top 100. The Utes are now 5-6 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-8 vs. RPI Top 100 and only have one bad loss on the year.
But because Utah played (and won) a bunch of home games against terrible teams in November, the RPI has never been able to recover.
Arizona State (21-9, RPI: 38, KP: 35)
Despite Tuesday night's loss to Oregon, Arizona State is still marginally trending in the right direction.
The Sun Devils' biggest problem is something they can't do anything to fix now: a 1-1 record against nonconference opponents in the RPI Top 100—and boy how did they get destroyed by Creighton in that loss. A two-point home win over Marquette was the best thing they did until late January.
Much like Nebraska, though, Arizona State has been picking up quality wins left and right over the past six weeks, tallying six RPI Top 50 wins since Jan. 25.
If they win at Oregon State on Saturday, it'll be time to write the Sun Devils into the tournament field in permanent ink.
Stanford (18-11, RPI: 41, KP: 38)
Life in the Pac-12 is hard.
Since picking up a crucial win over UCLA on Feb. 22, Stanford has lost three consecutive games to Arizona State, Arizona and Colorado. The season finale against Utah won't be a walk in the park by any stretch of the imagination, either.
If there's good news in the Cardinal's 11 losses, it's that nine of them have come against the RPI Top 50, against whom they are now 5-9. Of course, the bad news is that there are 11 losses. There's no magic number of losses for bubble teams to avoid, but they would be getting pretty close to it if such a concrete integer existed.
The win over Utah is a must. Otherwise, Stanford is going to be battling Washington for the No. 9 seed in the Pac-12 conference tournament. In what might be a seven-bid conference, that's not a great place to be.
California (18-12, RPI: 50, KP: 64)
On Jan. 18, the Golden Bears were 14-4, working on a six-game winning streak and had key wins away from home against Arkansas, Oregon and Stanford. Since then, they have added a home win over Arizona and lost to virtually everyone else they played.
Cal has lost eight out of its last 12 games. In the past two weeks, the Golden Bears are 1-4 with a win over 1-15 USC, three blowout losses and a particularly painful home loss to surging Utah on Wednesday night.
Save for that two-point win over short-handed Arizona, there's really nothing California has done in the past two months to show it belongs in the NCAA tournament.
However, this team does have four RPI Top 50 wins and an upcoming home game against Colorado to try to make it five. Beat the Buffaloes and pick up a couple of Pac-12 tournament wins and Cal will be right back in business.