2013 NCAA Basketball Championship Prediction: Louisville Cuts Down the Nets

Jake WestrichSenior Writer IApril 8, 2013

ATLANTA, GA - APRIL 06:  Head coach Rick Pitino of the Louisville Cardinals and the bench celebrate after the Cardinals defeat the Wichita State Shockers 72-68 during the 2013 NCAA Men's Final Four Semifinal at the Georgia Dome on April 6, 2013 in Atlanta, Georgia.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Andy Lyons/Getty Images

A quick review of Louisville's and Michigan's statistical DNA for the 2013 season suggests a tightly contested matchup on Monday night in Atlanta.

Here's a quick rundown of the head-to-head season averages:

PPG: MICH – 75.2 LOU – 74.3
FG%: MICH – 48.3 LOU – 45.6
FT%: LOU – 70.7 MICH – 70.0
3P%: MICH – 38.3 LOU – 32.9
RPG: LOU – 36.9 MICH – 35.2
APG: MICH – 14.6 LOU – 14.5
SPG: LOU – 10.8 MICH – 6.2

If you are a believer in statistical sample size, you could deduce that the 2013 NCAA National Championship could come down to the Wolverines' ability to knock down the three-ball, while the Cardinals will need to rely, once again, on creating turnovers off their full court press.

In fact, the Cardinals' run against Wichita State was because they forced seven turnovers in the game's final seven minutes. Prior to coughing up the rock, the Shockers had gone 26 minutes without a turnover.

It's also worth noting that Michigan finished sixth in the nation in field-goal percentage at 48.3 percent. Mitch McGary, a double-double machine, has increased his production on both ends of the courting during this tournament run.

2013 National Championship Prediction
Matchup Win % Avg. Score  
Michigan Wolverines 30.1 67.4 Sample Boxscore
vs. Louisville Cardinals 69.9 72.6 Simulate Title Game

Using our college basketball simulation engine, we "played" Louisville and Michigan 1,001 times and the computers like the Cardinals to come out on top 69.9 percent of the time by an average score of 73-65.

Remember, you can simulate the 2013 NCAA National Championship as many times as you want for FREE using our SimMatchup tool.