This is a look back at an article I wrote on my blog page on FoxSports.com in May of 2006. This was on the eve of how the rule changing the NBA draft eligible age to 19.
The return to the importance of upper class leadership has been a constant thread to successful runs in the NCAA Tournament recently. This year seemed to spawn a return to star laden teams full of freshman and sophomores leading their teams deep into March.
National Champion Florida started four sophomores and a junior, runner-up UCLA featured the star studded sophomore backcourt of Aaron Afflalo and Jordan Farmar and key freshmen Luc-Richard Mbah-a-Moute, Alfred Aboya, Darren Collison and Michael Roll.
With the NBA instituting a 19 year old age limit on early entrees, underclass laden teams making deep runs into March should continue. The increasing exodus of High School stars to the NBA has given mid-majors the majority of senior laden teams in recent years. George Mason’s run to the Final Four should not have shocked people as much as it did.
Mid-Major success has been brewing on the national level for a few years. Most of the college basketball community considers Gonzaga a major program in a mid-major conference.
Bucknell won its opening round game for the second consecutive year. Bradley and Wichita State’s advancement to the Sweet 16 gave the Missouri Valley more teams through to the second weekend than the Big Ten and Big XII and as many as the ACC, Pac-10 and SEC.
Only the 16 team Big East had more teams win two games in the tournament this year. The continued success of Mid-Major teams with senior leadership will become more difficult with the NBA’s age limit. Stars that would have gone straight to the NBA over the last ten years will now have head to college for at least a year.
The biggest impact will occur with players that would have jumped straight to the NBA from high school. Eight of the top 15 ranked players in the class of 2005 entered the draft. None of those players made an immediate impact with their NBA teams.
The vast majority of high school players that have entered the NBA draft have had less than memorable NBA careers. If they had chosen to attend college, many would have probably become legends at their schools.
In one season, Carmelo Anthony led Syracuse to its only national championship. The impact of these players can alter history. Amir Johnson might have elevated Louisville from the NIT Final Four to an NCAA Tournament team. Johnson scored only 20 points in three games with the Pistons and spent a large part of the season in the D-League. CJ Miles presence in Austin could have meant the difference between the Elite Eight and the Final Four for Rick Barnes. Miles spent the season averaging 3.4 points in 23 games for the Utah Jazz who failed to make the playoffs.
The Prep class of 2006 would have included sure fire lottery picks and many other players that could have anticipated the instant riches of the NBA. Greg Oden would have been a mortal lock as the NBA’s first overall pick.
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