Final Four Underdogs Can Win Thanks to the Three-Pointer

(Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

Let's not kid ourselves. No one is surprised that UConn and North Carolina are in Detroit today for the Final Four.

That's what we were projecting back in October. And three weeks ago, before the NCAA Tournament, although many of us (yep, this guy included) thought Memphis might spoil the Huskies' bid.

The other pair of teams left in the Big Dance, however, weren't exactly favorites to make it this far. Not Michigan State, which had flown under the radar all season after getting blown off the floor by the Tar Heels in early December in the same venue—Ford Field—in which they'll play Saturday.

The Spartans had to continuously silent doubters after that, game by game until they "upset" No. 1 seed Louisville last Sunday. Now, playing just 90 miles from East Lansing, they're underdogs once again.

But not as big underdogs as the Wildcats of Villanova, who have to take on the mighty Heels—the team almost given the title before the season even began. Who, outside of Philly, is picking the 'Cats to advance to their first title game since 1985?

Um, no one.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves in predicting a battle of the big boys Monday night in Motown. Yes, UNC and UConn are the better, more talented teams. They "should" win.

But they might not. I, for one, wouldn't be surprised one bit.

After all, there's a big equalizer for the pair of underdogs.

The three-pointer.

Look at the Tar Heels' four losses to date. When they were shocked at home by Boston College, the Eagles made nine threes. Wake Forest was a terrible outside shooting team, but it shot 6-for-14 from the perimeter.

The main reason Maryland came back from a huge second-half deficit to upset the Heels? The Terrapins made 13 of 30 from behind the arc. And Florida State was 8-of-20 from downtown in its ACC Tournament win (although UNC was without its best player, Ty Lawson).

The bottom line is this: If Villanova makes its outside shots, it can win this game.

A lot was made after the Heels' 72-60 win over Oklahoma last Sunday to win the South region about how much of an improved defensive team they are. And don't get me wrong—they are better on that end of the floor than they were in January, when the Demon Deacons' Jeff Teague penetrated at will against the Heels.

They're better at guarding the basket, especially with freshman Ed Davis playing a bigger role. I'll give them that.

But they're not any better at guarding the three-point arc. The bottom line to take from last weekend is this: Oklahoma's guards didn't show up to play. They missed wide-open three after wide-open three, bricking their first 15 from deep.

A few made threes, and that could have been a different game.

Villanova might not have a Blake Griffin to garner defenders' attention, but it will get plenty of open looks. That's because the Wildcats have a pair of guards, in Scottie Reynolds and a

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