Musings from the Bald Prophet: Dancing on the Edge and the 13th BP Top 25

Marc DaleyAnalyst IMarch 2, 2009

This week's five musings concern the postseason prospects of five teams that may be sweating buckets on Sunday, Mar. 15.


1) Kentucky called their matchup with South Carolina on Tuesday a "must-win".  For a team that faced judgement day they couldn't come up with good answers.

They were thoroughly embarrassed by the Gamecocks but had another chance at a "must-win" against league leaders LSU at home. All they did was blow a 10-point second-half lead and lose on a botched defensive assignment. 

Judgement call: Out.  Their lack of consistency and struggles on the road suggest they won't win against both Georgia and Florida.  This puts them at 9-7 in the SEC and means they have to win the SEC tourney, which isn't likely to happen.


2) Siena did what they thought the powers that be wanted. They scheduled more Goliaths than was seen in a collection of Bibles and struggled against them.  With a recent loss to Niagara the Saints are faced with having to win the MAAC tourney to get in. 

Judgment call: In.  However, this is only because they're the No. 1 seed in the aforementioned tourney and have home-court advantage.


3) UNLV has won five games against teams ranked in the top 50 in the RPI and is a respectable 6-5 on the road.  Unfortunately, their RPI is a meek 51 and they stand fourth in the Mountain West, which isn't likely to get four teams in to the Dance.

Judgement call: Out. However, the Rebels get the home-court advantage for the MWC tourney.


4) St. Mary's lost Patty Mills eight games ago and many pundits thought the Gaels' chances blew away.  But they pulled together and went 5-3 to pull back up to second behind Gonzaga. Mills might come back for the upcoming West Coast tourney.

Judgement call: In. They can't afford to lose early in the WCC tourney, though.


5) Utah State has only lost four times all year and, like Siena, has a respectable RPI.  But their only big win has come against Utah and they're coming off a loss to Nevada.  Like Siena, they probably need to win the WAC tourney to get in.

Judgement call: In. They are the overwhelming one-seed and can shoot the lights out.


Now your Top 25 poll

1 - UConn

2 - Memphis

3 - Louisville

4 - UNC

5 - Kansas

6 - Pitt

7 - Duke

8 - Oklahoma

9 - Michigan State

10 - Wake Forest

11 - Missouri

12 - Marquette

13 - Xavier

14 - Gonzaga

15 - Villanova

16 - LSU

17 - Clemson

18 - Washington

19 - Arizona State

20 - Florida State

21 - UCLA

22 - Purdue

23 - Butler

24 - Illinois

25 - Utah