The Schwach Indicator: Feb. 3
This is the fourth week of the Schwach Indicator standings. For those of you who missed the explanation of this new evaluation tool, here's a quick recap.
As the NCAA Tournament approaches every March, you start hearing college basketball experts talk a lot about top 50 and top 100 wins when discussing a team's possible seed or whether or not a school deserves to be in the Big Dance at all.
I think these two criteria are important as well, but they're not perfect. Why? Because not all top 100 wins are created equal.
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So I set out to create a more precise evaluation system in which teams aren't grouped by 50 or 100, but individually according to their RPI.
I enlisted the help of two friends: Brad Wachtel, Director of Operations at Hoop Group, a New Jersey-based company that organizes basketball camps and runs an NCAA preseason tournament; and Mike Sverdlov, a computer programmer for New York Life.
We came up with the following formula.
For each victory, a team receives the number of points equal to their opponent's RPI rank subtracted from 344. So if you beat the RPI's 144th-ranked team, you receive 200 points. Beat them at a neutral site, and you multiply that number by 1.25. Beat them on the road and multiply the number by 1.5.
For each loss, a team receives a deduction of the exact number of points equal to their opponent's RPI rank. So you better not lose to the RPI's 300th-ranked team, or you'll lose 300 points. Lose to the top team in the country? No sweat, you drop only one point. But lose at home, and that number is multiplied by 1.5.
This way teams are rewarded for beating better teams (especially on the road) and punished for losing to worse teams (especially at home).
Some of the biggest winners this week included Villanova, which jumped from 26th to 15th after beating Pitt and Cincinnati; Purdue, which leaped from 27th to 16th following wins at Wisconsin and at home against Michigan; and Kansas, which moved up from 41st to 19th after winning at Nebraska and Baylor.
Some of the biggest losers this week included Syracuse, which dropped from 13th to 23rd after falling at Providence; Saint Mary's which slipped from 19th to 31st following its defeats at Gonzaga and Portland; and Kentucky, which fell from 30th to 46th after losing to Ole Miss and South Carolina.
Without further ado, let's get to the rankings through action on Monday, Feb. 3.
1 Connecticut 6153.00
2 Oklahoma 5711.25
3 Pittsburgh 5365.75
4 Duke 5262.00
5 Xavier 5201.75
6 North Carolina 5194.50
7 Michigan State 4894.00
8 Memphis 4692.00
9 Louisville 4434.00
10 Marquette 4390.50
11 Butler 4334.00
12 Clemson 4314.50
13 Wake Forest 4237.50
14 Minnesota 3943.00
15 Villanova 3895.00
16 Purdue 3889.00
17 Siena 3861.00
18 West Virginia 3838.75
19 Kansas 3795.50
20 Illinois 3791.00
21 Dayton 3748.25
22 UCLA 3728.25
23 Syracuse 3718.75
24 Washington 3613.50
25 Arizona State 3538.25
26 UNLV 3517.50
27 Ohio State 3439.25
28 Florida State 3431.75
29 Texas 3406.25
30 California 3380.00
31 Saint Mary's 3330.00
32 Gonzaga 3316.75
33 Missouri 3293.50
34 Boston College 3293.00
35 Davidson 3278.00
36 Utah State 3257.00
37 Florida 3135.25
38 Penn State 3097.25
39 Utah 3089.00
40 Tennessee 3072.75
41 Brigham Young 3068.00
42 USC 3062.00
43 Virginia Tech 2944.25
44 Texas A&M 2866.75
45 Georgetown 2820.25
46 Kentucky 2805.50
47 LSU 2791.00
48 Illinois State 2787.00
49 Northeastern 2778.00
50 Niagara 2770.25
51 South Carolina 2753.50
52 Creighton 2730.50
53 Wisconsin-Green Bay 2712.00
54 Virginia Commonwealth 2610.00
55 Wisconsin 2550.25
56 Northern Iowa 2503.50
57 Providence 2447.50
58 Oklahoma State 2424.25
59 UAB 2392.25
60 Buffalo 2364.00
61 Rhode Island 2345.75
62 Arizona 2302.00
63 Tulsa 2300.75
64 Baylor 2297.25
65 Miami (FL) 2254.75
66 Cincinnati 2228.00
67 Michigan 2207.50
68 Maryland 2196.25
69 Temple 2166.00
70 Saint Joseph's 2107.75
71 Northwestern 2062.50
72 Stanford 2035.00
73 San Diego State 1975.00
74 Mississippi State 1966.00
75 George Mason 1964.50
76 Washington State 1953.75
77 New Mexico 1949.50
78 Miami (OH) 1939.25
79 Kansas State 1892.50
80 UTEP 1862.00
81 UCF 1748.50
82 Evansville 1723.00
83 Fairfield 1697.00
84 Duquesne 1679.50
85 Notre Dame 1673.00
86 Vanderbilt 1616.50
87 Western Kentucky 1612.50
88 Drake 1607.00
89 Mississippi 1570.50
90 Arkansas 1568.00
91 Hofstra 1555.25
92 Nebraska 1552.00
93 Drexel 1551.50
94 Iowa 1525.75
95 La Salle 1490.00
96 Houston 1456.75
97 Cleveland State 1448.00
98 Arkansas-Little Rock 1442.00
99 Milwaukee 1437.75
100 TCU 1436.75
101 Bradley 1431.25
102 Vermont 1413.75
103 Boise State 1387.00
104 Wright State 1362.75
105 Nevada 1337.00
106 Southern Miss 1265.00
107 San Diego 1217.50
108 North Carolina State 1169.00
109 Portland 1137.75
110 St. John's 1109.75
111 Cornell 1069.25
112 Auburn 1034.50
113 Seton Hall 1001.00
114 James Madison 990.25
115 Wyoming 962.50
116 American University 955.00
117 Virginia Military 948.50
118 North Dakota State 935.00
119 Texas Tech 916.00
120 Stephen F. Austin 870.25
121 Alabama 869.25
122 Old Dominion 808.50
123 Iowa State 807.50
124 Akron 779.00
125 Charleston 751.00
126 Weber State 678.25
127 Rider 672.00
128 Middle Tennessee State 669.00
129 Georgia Tech 665.00
130 East Tennessee State 663.50
131 Albany 645.00
132 Virginia 537.50
133 Southern Illinois 500.00
134 Portland State 494.50
135 Ohio 486.25
136 Robert Morris 478.00
137 Richmond 451.00
138 Oral Roberts 445.50
139 Oregon State 439.50
140 Long Beach State 434.50
141 Bowling Green 427.00
142 Navy 394.50
143 Mount St. Mary's 388.00
144 Pacific 383.00
145 Loyola (MD) 378.00
146 Saint Louis 368.25
147 Liberty 330.00
148 Loyola (IL) 293.00
149 Tennessee-Martin 291.00
150 Arkansas State 265.00
151 Manhattan 242.00
152 South Florida 216.50
153 Oakland 215.75
154 Wichita State 201.75
155 St. Bonaventure 184.50
156 Rutgers 162.00
157 Illinois-Chicago 126.50
158 Morehead State 113.00
159 Montana State 107.50
160 Belmont 105.50
161 Troy 100.75
162 Boston University 90.50
163 Missouri State 62.50
164 Binghamton 58.00
165 Oregon 25.00
166 North Texas 0.50
167 Texas-San Antonio -6.50
168 Marshall -29.50
169 Iona -50.50
170 Massachusetts -55.50
171 New Mexico State -57.00
172 Charlotte -100.50
173 Kent State -145.50
174 South Alabama -157.75
175 Texas A&M-CC -193.00
176 DePaul -209.00
177 Cal State Fullerton -212.00
178 Jacksonville -219.00
179 Morgan State -245.50
180 Radford -247.50
181 Idaho -251.50
182 Sam Houston State -266.00
183 East Carolina -269.00
184 Eastern Kentucky -295.50
185 Wofford -299.25
186 Holy Cross -319.50
187 Chattanooga -327.00
188 Georgia -349.75
189 Ball State -366.50
190 Montana -425.50
191 Austin Peay -441.00
192 Murray State -480.00
193 Colorado -500.00
194 Cal State Northridge -515.50
195 Colorado State -577.00
196 Santa Clara -581.50
197 Lehigh -589.00
198 Indiana -618.50
199 Western Carolina -623.75
200 Citadel -638.00
201 San Jose State -646.00
202 Lamar -697.25
203 Georgia Southern -710.50
204 Nicholls State -721.50
205 San Francisco -765.75
206 George Washington -777.50
207 Tulane -780.00
208 IUPUI -781.50
209 Presbyterian -794.50
210 Samford -886.50
211 Delaware -903.75
212 Alabama State -930.00
213 Hawaii -937.50
214 Texas-Arlington -944.00
215 Gardner-Webb -965.00
216 Stony Brook -967.00
217 North Carolina-Asheville -984.00
218 Appalachian State -985.00
219 Pennsylvania -1004.00
220 UC Riverside -1006.00
221 Air Force -1035.25
222 Central Connecticut State -1043.00
223 Mercer -1051.75
224 Fresno State -1065.50
225 Canisius -1068.00
226 Towson -1082.50
227 Longwood -1098.00
228 UC Santa Barbara -1104.50
229 Rice -1110.00
230 Sacred Heart -1117.50
231 UC Davis -1138.25
232 Florida International -1185.50
233 UMBC -1191.50
234 Western Michigan -1193.50
235 Idaho State -1213.00
236 Valparaiso -1220.00
237 Harvard -1288.00
238 Princeton -1304.00
239 South Dakota State -1313.50
240 Stetson -1323.00
241 Centenary -1328.50
242 Yale -1371.00
243 Eastern Washington -1377.50
244 Savannah State -1383.00
245 Louisiana Tech -1398.50
246 Northwestern State -1406.75
247 New Orleans -1422.50
248 Eastern Illinois -1440.00
249 Jacksonville State -1458.50
250 Marist -1469.00
251 Central Arkansas -1479.50
252 Utah Valley -1485.50
253 Jackson State -1488.25
254 Hampton -1490.50
255 Southern Methodist -1524.50
256 Denver -1530.00
257 Southeastern Louisiana -1531.00
258 New Hampshire -1572.00
259 Arkansas-Pine Bluff -1583.00
260 UC Irvine -1590.50
261 IPFW -1615.00
262 Long Island -1621.50
263 Alabama A&M -1628.00
264 Tennessee Tech -1630.00
265 Brown -1676.50
266 Columbia -1692.75
267 Coppin State -1694.50
268 Chicago State -1707.50
269 Elon -1750.50
270 Norfolk State -1758.50
271 Cal Poly -1795.75
272 Louisiana-Lafayette -1801.50
273 Detroit -1810.00
274 Campbell -1823.50
275 Northern Colorado -1938.50
276 Indiana State -1968.25
277 Winthrop -1986.50
278 Texas State -1994.00
279 St. Peter's -1998.50
280 Coastal Carolina -2002.25
281 McNeese State -2010.00
282 Maine -2018.50
283 Bethune-Cookman -2130.25
284 Youngstown State -2147.00
285 William & Mary -2149.75
286 Florida A&M -2172.25
287 North Carolina A&T -2183.25
288 Hartford -2189.75
289 St. Francis (NY) -2237.50
290 Southern Utah -2240.50
291 Fordham -2246.50
292 Georgia State -2250.00
293 Louisiana-Monroe -2266.00
294 Bucknell -2275.00
295 Central Michigan -2295.00
296 North Carolina-Wilmington -2298.25
297 Quinnipiac -2368.00
298 Cal State Bakersfield -2373.50
299 Lipscomb -2397.00
300 Wagner -2416.00
301 Toledo -2426.00
302 Northern Arizona -2435.50
303 South Carolina State -2436.50
304 Florida Atlantic -2485.25
305 Northern Illinois -2508.75
306 Tennessee State -2534.50
307 Pepperdine -2574.00
308 USC Upstate -2641.00
309 Grambling State -2643.75
310 Texas-Pan American -2648.25
311 Howard -2663.50
312 Lafayette -2700.50
313 UMKC -2714.75
314 Prairie View A&M -2716.50
315 Charleston Southern -2731.00
316 Florida Gulf Coast -2846.50
317 Delaware State -2871.00
318 Army -2959.00
319 Western Illinois -2975.75
320 Bryant University -2983.50
321 Colgate -3054.00
322 Winston-Salem -3077.00
323 Houston Baptist -3280.00
324 Maryland-Eastern Shore -3281.00
325 St. Francis (PA) -3330.50
326 Monmouth -3352.75
327 UNC Greensboro -3388.50
328 Eastern Michigan -3415.00
329 Southern University -3431.50
330 Mississippi Valley State -3456.00
331 High Point -3475.00
332 Kennesaw State -3475.00
333 Fairleigh Dickinson -3549.00
334 Dartmouth -3624.00
335 Loyola Marymount -3625.50
336 North Florida -3666.00
337 Furman -3759.00
338 Alcorn State -3868.50
339 Texas Southern -4080.00
340 Southeast Missouri State -4522.75
341 North Carolina Central -4954.50
342 Sacramento State -5053.50
343 N.J.I.T. -5364.50
Jordan Schwartz is Bleacher Report's New York Yankees Community Leader. His book "Memoirs of the Unaccomplished Man" is available at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and authorhouse.com.
Jordan can be reached at jordanschwartz2003@yahoo.com



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