The Schwach Indicator: Feb. 3

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The Schwach Indicator: Feb. 3

This is the fourth week of the Schwach Indicator standings.  For those of you who missed the explanation of this new evaluation tool, here's a quick recap.

As the NCAA Tournament approaches every March, you start hearing college basketball experts talk a lot about top 50 and top 100 wins when discussing a team's possible seed or whether or not a school deserves to be in the Big Dance at all.

I think these two criteria are important as well, but they're not perfect. Why? Because not all top 100 wins are created equal. 

So I set out to create a more precise evaluation system in which teams aren't grouped by 50 or 100, but individually according to their RPI.

I enlisted the help of two friends: Brad Wachtel, Director of Operations at Hoop Group, a New Jersey-based company that organizes basketball camps and runs an NCAA preseason tournament; and Mike Sverdlov, a computer programmer for New York Life.

We came up with the following formula.

For each victory, a team receives the number of points equal to their opponent's RPI rank subtracted from 344. So if you beat the RPI's 144th-ranked team, you receive 200 points.  Beat them at a neutral site, and you multiply that number by 1.25. Beat them on the road and multiply the number by 1.5.

For each loss, a team receives a deduction of the exact number of points equal to their opponent's RPI rank. So you better not lose to the RPI's 300th-ranked team, or you'll lose 300 points. Lose to the top team in the country? No sweat, you drop only one point. But lose at home, and that number is multiplied by 1.5.

This way teams are rewarded for beating better teams (especially on the road) and punished for losing to worse teams (especially at home). 

Some of the biggest winners this week included Villanova, which jumped from 26th to 15th after beating Pitt and Cincinnati; Purdue, which leaped from 27th to 16th following wins at Wisconsin and at home against Michigan; and Kansas, which moved up from 41st to 19th after winning at Nebraska and Baylor.

Some of the biggest losers this week included Syracuse, which dropped from 13th to 23rd after falling at Providence; Saint Mary's which slipped from 19th to 31st following its defeats at Gonzaga and Portland; and Kentucky, which fell from 30th to 46th after losing to Ole Miss and South Carolina.

Without further ado, let's get to the rankings through action on Monday, Feb. 3.

1    Connecticut    6153.00
2    Oklahoma    5711.25
3    Pittsburgh    5365.75
4    Duke    5262.00
5    Xavier    5201.75
6    North Carolina    5194.50
7    Michigan State    4894.00
8    Memphis    4692.00
9    Louisville    4434.00
10    Marquette    4390.50
11    Butler    4334.00
12    Clemson    4314.50
13    Wake Forest    4237.50
14    Minnesota    3943.00
15    Villanova    3895.00
16    Purdue    3889.00
17    Siena    3861.00
18    West Virginia    3838.75
19    Kansas    3795.50
20    Illinois    3791.00
21    Dayton    3748.25
22    UCLA    3728.25
23    Syracuse    3718.75
24    Washington    3613.50
25    Arizona State    3538.25
26    UNLV    3517.50
27    Ohio State    3439.25
28    Florida State    3431.75
29    Texas    3406.25
30    California    3380.00
31    Saint Mary's    3330.00
32    Gonzaga    3316.75
33    Missouri    3293.50
34    Boston College    3293.00
35    Davidson    3278.00
36    Utah State    3257.00
37    Florida    3135.25
38    Penn State    3097.25
39    Utah    3089.00
40    Tennessee    3072.75
41    Brigham Young    3068.00
42    USC    3062.00
43    Virginia Tech    2944.25
44    Texas A&M    2866.75
45    Georgetown    2820.25
46    Kentucky    2805.50
47    LSU    2791.00
48    Illinois State    2787.00
49    Northeastern    2778.00
50    Niagara    2770.25
51    South Carolina    2753.50
52    Creighton    2730.50
53    Wisconsin-Green Bay    2712.00
54    Virginia Commonwealth    2610.00
55    Wisconsin    2550.25
56    Northern Iowa    2503.50
57    Providence    2447.50
58    Oklahoma State    2424.25
59    UAB    2392.25
60    Buffalo    2364.00
61    Rhode Island    2345.75
62    Arizona    2302.00
63    Tulsa    2300.75
64    Baylor    2297.25
65    Miami (FL)    2254.75
66    Cincinnati    2228.00
67    Michigan    2207.50
68    Maryland    2196.25
69    Temple    2166.00
70    Saint Joseph's    2107.75
71    Northwestern    2062.50
72    Stanford    2035.00
73    San Diego State    1975.00
74    Mississippi State    1966.00
75    George Mason    1964.50
76    Washington State    1953.75
77    New Mexico    1949.50
78    Miami (OH)    1939.25
79    Kansas State    1892.50
80    UTEP    1862.00
81    UCF    1748.50
82    Evansville    1723.00
83    Fairfield    1697.00
84    Duquesne    1679.50
85    Notre Dame    1673.00
86    Vanderbilt    1616.50
87    Western Kentucky    1612.50
88    Drake    1607.00
89    Mississippi    1570.50
90    Arkansas    1568.00
91    Hofstra    1555.25
92    Nebraska    1552.00
93    Drexel    1551.50
94    Iowa    1525.75
95    La Salle    1490.00
96    Houston    1456.75
97    Cleveland State    1448.00
98    Arkansas-Little Rock    1442.00
99    Milwaukee    1437.75
100    TCU    1436.75
101    Bradley    1431.25
102    Vermont    1413.75
103    Boise State    1387.00
104    Wright State    1362.75
105    Nevada    1337.00
106    Southern Miss    1265.00
107    San Diego    1217.50
108    North Carolina State    1169.00
109    Portland    1137.75
110    St. John's    1109.75
111    Cornell    1069.25
112    Auburn    1034.50
113    Seton Hall    1001.00
114    James Madison    990.25
115    Wyoming    962.50
116    American University    955.00
117    Virginia Military    948.50
118    North Dakota State    935.00
119    Texas Tech    916.00
120    Stephen F. Austin    870.25
121    Alabama    869.25
122    Old Dominion    808.50
123    Iowa State    807.50
124    Akron    779.00
125    Charleston    751.00
126    Weber State    678.25
127    Rider    672.00
128    Middle Tennessee State    669.00
129    Georgia Tech    665.00
130    East Tennessee State    663.50
131    Albany    645.00
132    Virginia    537.50
133    Southern Illinois    500.00
134    Portland State    494.50
135    Ohio    486.25
136    Robert Morris    478.00
137    Richmond    451.00
138    Oral Roberts    445.50
139    Oregon State    439.50
140    Long Beach State    434.50
141    Bowling Green    427.00
142    Navy    394.50
143    Mount St. Mary's    388.00
144    Pacific    383.00
145    Loyola (MD)    378.00
146    Saint Louis    368.25
147    Liberty    330.00
148    Loyola (IL)    293.00
149    Tennessee-Martin    291.00
150    Arkansas State    265.00
151    Manhattan    242.00
152    South Florida    216.50
153    Oakland    215.75
154    Wichita State    201.75
155    St. Bonaventure    184.50
156    Rutgers    162.00
157    Illinois-Chicago    126.50
158    Morehead State    113.00
159    Montana State    107.50
160    Belmont    105.50
161    Troy    100.75
162    Boston University    90.50
163    Missouri State    62.50
164    Binghamton    58.00
165    Oregon    25.00
166    North Texas    0.50
167    Texas-San Antonio    -6.50
168    Marshall    -29.50
169    Iona    -50.50
170    Massachusetts    -55.50
171    New Mexico State    -57.00
172    Charlotte    -100.50
173    Kent State    -145.50
174    South Alabama    -157.75
175    Texas A&M-CC    -193.00
176    DePaul    -209.00
177    Cal State Fullerton    -212.00
178    Jacksonville    -219.00
179    Morgan State    -245.50
180    Radford    -247.50
181    Idaho    -251.50
182    Sam Houston State    -266.00
183    East Carolina    -269.00
184    Eastern Kentucky    -295.50
185    Wofford    -299.25
186    Holy Cross    -319.50
187    Chattanooga    -327.00
188    Georgia    -349.75
189    Ball State    -366.50
190    Montana    -425.50
191    Austin Peay    -441.00
192    Murray State    -480.00
193    Colorado    -500.00
194    Cal State Northridge    -515.50
195    Colorado State    -577.00
196    Santa Clara    -581.50
197    Lehigh    -589.00
198    Indiana    -618.50
199    Western Carolina    -623.75
200    Citadel    -638.00
201    San Jose State    -646.00
202    Lamar    -697.25
203    Georgia Southern    -710.50
204    Nicholls State    -721.50
205    San Francisco    -765.75
206    George Washington    -777.50
207    Tulane    -780.00
208    IUPUI    -781.50
209    Presbyterian    -794.50
210    Samford    -886.50
211    Delaware    -903.75
212    Alabama State    -930.00
213    Hawaii    -937.50
214    Texas-Arlington    -944.00
215    Gardner-Webb    -965.00
216    Stony Brook    -967.00
217    North Carolina-Asheville    -984.00
218    Appalachian State    -985.00
219    Pennsylvania    -1004.00
220    UC Riverside    -1006.00
221    Air Force    -1035.25
222    Central Connecticut State    -1043.00
223    Mercer    -1051.75
224    Fresno State    -1065.50
225    Canisius    -1068.00
226    Towson    -1082.50
227    Longwood    -1098.00
228    UC Santa Barbara    -1104.50
229    Rice    -1110.00
230    Sacred Heart    -1117.50
231    UC Davis    -1138.25
232    Florida International    -1185.50
233    UMBC    -1191.50
234    Western Michigan    -1193.50
235    Idaho State    -1213.00
236    Valparaiso    -1220.00
237    Harvard    -1288.00
238    Princeton    -1304.00
239    South Dakota State    -1313.50
240    Stetson    -1323.00
241    Centenary    -1328.50
242    Yale    -1371.00
243    Eastern Washington    -1377.50
244    Savannah State    -1383.00
245    Louisiana Tech    -1398.50
246    Northwestern State    -1406.75
247    New Orleans    -1422.50
248    Eastern Illinois    -1440.00
249    Jacksonville State    -1458.50
250    Marist    -1469.00
251    Central Arkansas    -1479.50
252    Utah Valley    -1485.50
253    Jackson State    -1488.25
254    Hampton    -1490.50
255    Southern Methodist    -1524.50
256    Denver    -1530.00
257    Southeastern Louisiana    -1531.00
258    New Hampshire    -1572.00
259    Arkansas-Pine Bluff    -1583.00
260    UC Irvine    -1590.50
261    IPFW    -1615.00
262    Long Island    -1621.50
263    Alabama A&M    -1628.00
264    Tennessee Tech    -1630.00
265    Brown    -1676.50
266    Columbia    -1692.75
267    Coppin State    -1694.50
268    Chicago State    -1707.50
269    Elon    -1750.50
270    Norfolk State    -1758.50
271    Cal Poly    -1795.75
272    Louisiana-Lafayette    -1801.50
273    Detroit    -1810.00
274    Campbell    -1823.50
275    Northern Colorado    -1938.50
276    Indiana State    -1968.25
277    Winthrop    -1986.50
278    Texas State    -1994.00
279    St. Peter's    -1998.50
280    Coastal Carolina    -2002.25
281    McNeese State    -2010.00
282    Maine    -2018.50
283    Bethune-Cookman    -2130.25
284    Youngstown State    -2147.00
285    William & Mary    -2149.75
286    Florida A&M    -2172.25
287    North Carolina A&T    -2183.25
288    Hartford    -2189.75
289    St. Francis (NY)    -2237.50
290    Southern Utah    -2240.50
291    Fordham    -2246.50
292    Georgia State    -2250.00
293    Louisiana-Monroe    -2266.00
294    Bucknell    -2275.00
295    Central Michigan    -2295.00
296    North Carolina-Wilmington    -2298.25
297    Quinnipiac    -2368.00
298    Cal State Bakersfield    -2373.50
299    Lipscomb    -2397.00
300    Wagner    -2416.00
301    Toledo    -2426.00
302    Northern Arizona    -2435.50
303    South Carolina State    -2436.50
304    Florida Atlantic    -2485.25
305    Northern Illinois    -2508.75
306    Tennessee State    -2534.50
307    Pepperdine    -2574.00
308    USC Upstate    -2641.00
309    Grambling State    -2643.75
310    Texas-Pan American    -2648.25
311    Howard    -2663.50
312    Lafayette    -2700.50
313    UMKC    -2714.75
314    Prairie View A&M    -2716.50
315    Charleston Southern    -2731.00
316    Florida Gulf Coast    -2846.50
317    Delaware State    -2871.00
318    Army    -2959.00
319    Western Illinois    -2975.75
320    Bryant University    -2983.50
321    Colgate    -3054.00
322    Winston-Salem    -3077.00
323    Houston Baptist    -3280.00
324    Maryland-Eastern Shore    -3281.00
325    St. Francis (PA)    -3330.50
326    Monmouth    -3352.75
327    UNC Greensboro    -3388.50
328    Eastern Michigan    -3415.00
329    Southern University    -3431.50
330    Mississippi Valley State    -3456.00
331    High Point    -3475.00
332    Kennesaw State    -3475.00
333    Fairleigh Dickinson    -3549.00
334    Dartmouth    -3624.00
335    Loyola Marymount    -3625.50
336    North Florida    -3666.00
337    Furman    -3759.00
338    Alcorn State    -3868.50
339    Texas Southern    -4080.00
340    Southeast Missouri State    -4522.75
341    North Carolina Central    -4954.50
342    Sacramento State    -5053.50
343    N.J.I.T.    -5364.50

 

Jordan Schwartz is Bleacher Report's New York Yankees Community Leader. His book "Memoirs of the Unaccomplished Man" is available at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and authorhouse.com.

Jordan can be reached at jordanschwartz2003@yahoo.com

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