Every NBA Team's Most Likely All-Star This Season
Your favorite team might not have a legitimate All-Star candidate, or maybe it has four. Fewer than 20 squads were represented at the no-defense soiree last February in New Orleans. Closer to 15 franchises could get burned ahead of this year's dance in Los Angeles following a summer of talent migration and clustering.
But we don't care!
For the sake of this exercise, we're going to assume every team has at least one viable All-Star hopeful. It doesn't matter how much of a dark horse or longer-than-long shot that player may be. It only matters that he has a case at all.
In instances of actual doubt, where the selection isn't quite obvious, choices will rest on player performances and their appeal relative to the NBA's new All-Star format. So, in other words, strong numbers and stronger brands are the bee's knees.
Atlanta Hawks: Dennis Schroder
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Someone always puts up numbers on a bad team that flirts with playing superfast at different times. Dennis Schroder is a good bet to be that guy for Atlanta Hawks.
He's already that guy for them.
Schroder is averaging 23.3 points and 6.7 assists through his first three appearances—an output that feels totally sustainable. He remains prone to coin-toss efficiency around the rim, and his three-point accuracy is plunging new depths of awful (11.1 percent), but the Hawks' four- and five-out lineups create "open sesame" passageways.
Endless volume is at his disposal. His efficiency will not be pretty, and Atlanta's offense won't crack the top 15 of points scored per 100 possessions. But he should once again finish among the league leaders in drives, and the assists will pile up off his high-volume kickouts.
Above all else: Schroder reaps the benefits of a "Who else?" model. He cedes touches to no one. The Hawks have a dearth of secondary playmakers to begin with, and one of their safety nets, DeAndre' Bembry, is on the shelf with wrist problems.
Injuries are about the only thing that can eat into Schroder's case-by-volume. He left Sunday's loss to the Brooklyn Nets after turning his left ankle. X-rays came back negative, but he's expected to miss some time, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Adam Zagoria. A more extended break will torpedo what's already long-shot candidacy.
Boston Celtics: Kyrie Irving
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Kyrie Irving's claim to this honor now goes unchallenged.
Gordon Hayward would have a legitimate case to supersede his teammate. Irving has the stronger brand, but Hayward is the better all-around player—and that's not a hot take. With the Jimmy Butler and Paul George trades winnowing down the Eastern Conference's star power on the wings, he felt like a shoo-in for All-Star honors.
But a dislocated left ankle and fractured tibia will likely sideline Hayward for the season, and no one else on the Boston Celtics profiles as a viable alternative. Al Horford is one heckuva player—a potential All-Star, even—but doesn't appeal to the points-per-game purists.
Irving is in a better position to fill up the box scores. The Celtics don't have a better option to run pick-and-rolls. Terry Rozier checks in second, with the turnover-prone Marcus Smart finishing as a super-distant third.
Hell will freeze over and Smart will shoot 40-plus percent from beyond the arc before Irving fails to average 20 points per game. He's right around that benchmark now, but he won't shoot under 40 percent on two-pointers forever. His 32 percent accuracy on threes will spike, too.
Boston's offensive rank is probably the most make-or-break aspect of Irving's case—assuming voters even take that into consideration.
He's trying to rewrite the book on his solo acts. The Cleveland Cavaliers scored like a bottom-five machine last season when he played without LeBron James. They maintained top-five marks in those situations for 2015-16, according to NBA Wowy, but the Celtics are dropping points at bottom-feeding rates with Irving on the floor.
Context matters. Boston suddenly finds itself relying on a wealth of inexperience and wild cards. More than half of Irving's minutes have come next to sophomore Jaylen Brown and rookie Jayson Tatum. Maybe the Celtics' roster setup obliterates his starter stock, but it shouldn't altogether keep him off the All-Star docket.
Brooklyn Nets: D'Angelo Russell
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Magic Johnson had better hope the Los Angeles Lakers carve out two max-contract slots this summer and then use that space to net a pair of superstars.
Because, right now, D'Angelo Russell is making him look fairly foolish.
Tiny, early-season samples are the enemy of enlightenment, but hot damn, the Lakers' salary-dumping sweetener appears to be buying into what the Nets are selling him. He's averaging 23.0 points and 5.5 assists through four games on 46.7 percent shooting and a 39.1 percent clip from long range—all career highs.
"I just wanted to make plays for the team," Russell said after Sunday's victory over Atlanta, per Nets Daily's Anthony Puccio. "If that's me shooting or me facilitating, the ball is in my hand so coaches give me that freedom to make that happen."
Obvious thought: Russell's tear won't persist all year.
Counterthought: What if a full-fledged regression to the mean never comes?
Jeremy Lin is done for the season after suffering a ruptured patellar tendon in his right knee. Other players will soak up some ball-handling responsibilities, but this offense is very much Russell's to run. Brooklyn's breakneck pace will manufacture plenty of possessions for him to pilot, and the off-ball reads in head coach Kenny Atkinson's motion offense essentially guarantee career-high assist totals.
Contending with the East's All-Star backcourt talent won't be easy. Russell has to tussle with Irving, DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, Kemba Walker and John Wall, among a few others. But if anyone on the Nets is going to sneak into the discussion, it'll be him.
Charlotte Hornets: Kemba Walker
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Certain people will be reluctant to pencil in Kemba Walker for an automatic All-Star bid. They are likely the same gals and guys uncomfortable pegging him as a top-25 player when that's exactly, and clearly, what he's become.
Singling out Walker from the Charlotte Hornets' modest pack of talent won't incite the same indecision and discomfort. Nicolas Batum is the only player remotely capable of sniffing his merit, and he's rehabbing an elbow injury. He's also working off a patently unimpressive 2016-17 campaign.
Walker, meanwhile, has been steadily climbing the Association's individual pecking order since 2014-15, when he first mutated into a lethal outside and off-ball threat.
His numbers might fall amid the Hornets' uneven roster setup, but his impact on the offense isn't about to cease and desist. He remains their lifeline. They're sporting a bottom-seven offense but hovering near top-10 territory when he's on the floor.
Equally pertinent: Walker hasn't wilted as he and the Hornets try adapting to Dwight Howard. Not one of the team's other two-man combinations has seen more time, and Charlotte is outscoring opponents by more than 15 points per 100 possessions when they're together.
Chicago Bulls: Literally No One
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I'm sorry. I tried. I truly, honestly, deeply tried. But picking anyone from the Chicago Bulls makes a farce of this entire exercise.
Robin Lopez is their best player. Earning All-Star dap is difficult enough as a non-shooting big man, and no one has the authority to promise he'll continue seeing 30-plus minutes per game for the NBA's second-biggest tank job.
Lauri Markkanen is playing pleasantly good basketball. He has emerged as the floor-spacing big Chicago was supposed to have but doesn't in (the injured) Nikola Mirotic and is rebounding at a higher clip than Ryan Anderson comparison-truthers ever could have envisioned.
Perhaps the rookie gets an honorary Zaza Pachulia voting bump from the good people of Finland. But the media and players, who account for the other 50 percent of the starter results, aren't putting him on the map. The league's coaches aren't, either.
Where are we supposed to go from here? Jerian Grant? Justin Holiday?
Thanks, but no thanks.
Deploying at least one star-level talent is a non-negotiable prerequisite for justifiable recognition. Chicago doesn't currently have one. Zach LaVine would have a case if he was healthy and the Bulls were milking him for 25 shots per game, but he's not, so they're not, and no one else on the roster is worth arguing for at this time.
Cleveland Cavaliers: LeBron James
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Look at LeBron James, getting the nod over Derrick Rose and everything—even though he's woefully out of shape.
"I'm out of shape...very out of shape for my expectations," he told TNT's Kristen Ledlow after Cleveland's win over Boston on opening night. "I haven't been able to play throughout the preseason. I played one game and reinjured my ankle. I don't like where I'm at right now."
Who wouldn't say this after finishing one assist shy of a triple-double? The real LeBron James would have dropped a Russell Westbrook to start the season. No wonder he needed to hit the VersaClimber after that game, per ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin.
The good news: Couch Potato LeBron is pretty damn awesome. He's good for 25 points, eight rebounds and six assists in his sleep. He's doing that game-by-game thing where we have to wonder whether he'll shoot league-average from three-point land, but he's putting down more than 60 percent of his shots overall—including 75-plus percent inside three feet of the hoop.
This might even be the season in which James decides to shoot 90 percent from the free-throw line, as he's almost doing now. He's one charity-stripe splurge away from generating 50/40/90 buzz.
And if Dad-bod LeBron is this good, think of what he'll do when he's in midseason form.
Dallas Mavericks: Dennis Smith Jr.
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Picking Dennis Smith Jr. is taboo by conventional measures. Rookies don't make All-Star teams.
Blake Griffin was the last newbie to get the stamp of approval, in 2010-11, and he made the cut as a red-shirt neophyte. Only five rookies in total have earned All-Star selections since 1993, and none of them were guards: Griffin, Yao Ming (2003), Tim Duncan (1998), Grant Hill (1995) and Shaquille O'Neal (1993).
Smith, in all likelihood, isn't joining those esteemed ranks. The Western Conference's backcourt food chain is too overbearing for a fledgling like himself to break through the unofficial veterans-only barrier. No-brainer selections like Stephen Curry, James Harden and Dejounte Murray Russell Westbrook aren't going anywhere, and the fringe pool is stacked with top-25 talents such as Mike Conley, Damian Lillard, Chris Paul and Klay Thompson.
Rolling with Smith beats the possible alternatives, because the Dallas Mavericks cannot be given the Bulls' treatment.
Dirk Nowitzki deserves a cursory mention as a possible career-achievement recipient from the Association's coaches, and Harrison Barnes' 2016-17 performance implies his woebegone start to 2017-18 is nothing more than a flash in the pan. Smith offers more bang for his buck—a default unknown whose relative anonymity equates to high-ceiling projections.
Dallas hasn't shied from turning the offense over to Smith in the early going. The sample size is smaller than microscopic (two games), but he genuinely plays like Eric Bledsoe, Jrue Holiday and John Wall created a joint MyPlayer campaign in NBA 2K.
It feels like Smith could average 15 points and seven assists per game on reasonable efficiency for the season while steering the Mavericks near a league-average offense. That won't be enough to reel in voters when pitting him against the Currys and Westbrooks of the galaxy, but it gets him more thoughtful consideration than Barnes or Nowitizki.
Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokic
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Nikola Jokic doesn't need to clear 18 points per game and shoot absurd percentages from the floor to win this distinction.
No, he won't beat out fellow bigs Marc Gasol, Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns et al., for a reserve All-Star spot averaging 12 points per game. But he'll remain the Denver Nuggets' crowning jewel no matter what.
What other big will lead his team in assists? And before you answer, the generously listed 6'7" Draymond Green doesn't count. This role-reversal honor belongs to Jokic alone.
Indeed, the Nuggets offense is off to a regrettable start, just barely staving off bottom-10 placement. But the season is, as the small-sample skeptics remind us, still young. Denver is trying to figure out its wing-light offense, and Jokic won't cough up 21.7 percent of his possessions until the end of time.
Thus, we're left to (necessarily) recycle last year's schtick: Jokic averaged 19.2 points, 10.9 rebounds and 5.8 assists on 58.7 percent shooting (34.2 percent on threes) after grabbing a permanent spot in the starting lineup—during which time the Nuggets played with league-best offensive efficiency and notched a top-three point differential per 100 possessions with him in the game.
Unless it turns out Jokic has somehow abdicated his throne in favor of Gary Harris, Paul Millsap or, yes, Will Barton, we must continue to treat him as the Nuggets' foremost star. He's earned that much leeway, and his 29-point, five-assist showing against the Washington Wizards on Monday, seven turnovers and all, suggests he'll be just fine.
Detroit Pistons: Tobias Harris
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Tobias Harris is beasting it to start 2017-18. His 21 points per game on 50 percent shooting, including a 39.1 percent knockdown rate from deep, don't feel completely sustainable. But, at the same time, they don't seem untenable.
The Detroit Pistons have recognized Harris is their best player. They are getting away from Andre Drummond post-ups thus far and have initiated Reggie Jackson's pass-first mode. Harris is registering a career-high usage rate as part of the shift, with the offense more frequently leveraging his work off the dribble.
Head coach Stan Van Gundy doesn't have him running as many pick-and-rolls. He doesn't have room for sets that became a necessity last season—not when he's trying to balance a rotation that includes a healthy Jackson, Avery Bradley and Ish Smith. Langston Galloway and Stanley Johnson factor into the pick-and-roll hierarchy as well.
Detroit is instead turning to Harris as the screener—and it's working. Drummond is the only player on the team averaging more screen assists, and no one is burning through more roll-man possessions.
Inverting Harris' role in these plays poses unique advantages. He doesn't need to dive immediately after screens because he has the handle to attack off the catch. And he's so much tougher to defend off slips as a triple threat—someone who could pull up off the catch, dribble through traffic or make an off-ball beeline toward the hoop.
Drummond or Jackson, the other two highest-paid Pistons, could also go here. But both are reaches. Drummond is playing more precise basketball on offense but hasn't figured things out on defense, while Jackson's scoring efficiency is playing catch-up to just about every other part of his game.
Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry
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Talk about your tough decisions.
How does one narrow a field consisting of four All-Star candidates? Well, the Golden State Warriors make it a little easier by defaulting to two options: Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are talented dudes, but neither one comes close to usurping their Maurice Podoloff Trophy-toting running mates.
Wrong answers don't exist once you get this level. Side with Curry, who's averaging more points (29) on fewer shots (16.5). Show support for Durant, whose oddly lousy free-throw percentage (68.8) and turnover rate (17.8) get overshadowed by his Rudy Gobert rim-protecting impressions.
It doesn't matter.
Curry receives the edge thanks to a more family-friendly brand. Both players will contend for starting slots, but he resonates more with voters. He finished second among all players on the ballot last year and entered 2017-18 with the hottest-selling jersey for the second consecutive season.
Durant is also the more likely of these two to get burned. The Western Conference's backcourt corps is absurdly deep, but Curry only really has to worry about James Harden and Russell Westbrook stealing his shine. Durant could find himself losing votes to a wider frontcourt pool that includes Green, Anthony Davis, Paul George, Rudy Gobert, Nikola Jokic, Kawhi Leonard and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Chances are, when the final returns are announced, both Curry and Durant finish inside the starter's circle. But Curry has a better shot at obtaining captain's status.
Houston Rockets: James Harden
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Remember how Chris Paul's arrival was going to inoculate James Harden against exhaustion?
"That's out the window," Houston Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni said, per ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon.
Paul is slated to miss a few weeks, per MacMahon, with a bruised left knee. League sources told ESPN.com's Chris Haynes the Rockets have inked Isaiah Canaan to help offset the deficit, and D'Antoni can apportion some playmaking duties to Eric Gordon. But Harden will spend at least the next few weeks trudging through familiar circumstances, as the unaided lifeblood of Houston's offense.
To D'Antoni's credit, he hasn't yet allowed the MVP runner-up's playing time to get out of control. Harden has eclipsed the 37-minute barrier once through four appearances. This falls short of groundbreaking and is a nod to Houston's waxing over Dallas on Saturday, but, you know, small victories and stuff.
One silver lining to Harden retaining his savior's badge: This becomes a mindless decision.
Sure, he always would have been the pick. He's 28 years old and in the thick of his prime. Paul is 32 and adjusting to a life that doesn't mandate he weave through zillions of ball screens every night. But both stars are top-10 players. Talking yourself into a healthy Paul over Harden, while ambitious, isn't beyond the realm of reason.
Injury bugs have taken care of this dilemma. Paul can come back raring to go, and Harden will still have the more expansive body of work. His assist numbers are down from last year's league-lording 11.2 benchmark, but he joins LeBron James as the only players averaging at least 25 points and eight assists per game this season.
Indiana Pacers: Myles Turner
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[Insert Victor Oladipo frowny face here.]
Neck soreness and concussion-like symptoms have limited Myles Turner to one appearance through the Indiana Pacers' first four games. Oladipo has verged on spectacular during his absence, parlaying his greenest light ever into a team-leading 23.8 points per contest. He's reaching the charity stripe with career-high frequency and finishing around the rim with personal-best efficiency.
Four outings aren't nearly enough to slot Oladipo ahead of Turner, though. It'd be different if Indy's big man were coping with more serious injuries, but a couple of absences to start the year won't force him to surrender his best-player cachet.
Turner lived up to this billing in his first—and, so far, only—cameo of the schedule. He collected 21 points, 14 rebounds, two assists and four blocks on a tidy 8-of-13 shooting. This output will not stick in totality, but he's now one of just nine players to achieve that line in a season debut. He joins Charles Barkley, Elton Brand, Anthony Davis, Brook Lopez, Hakeem Olajuwon, Jermaine O'Neal, Shaquille O'Neal and David Robinson.
Indiana employs a slew of ball-dominant talent, including Oladipo, but Turner will get ample opportunity to showcase himself as the franchise face. He needn't corner the market on touches to be an offensive asset, and the team doesn't have a better defensive presence.
If nothing else, the fight for recognition in the frontcourt won't be as draining as the scrap for backcourt appreciation. The East's All-Star lineup is wide-open after Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James, whereas Oladipo will be rumbling with more foregone selections in DeMar DeRozan, Kyrie Irving, Kyle Lowry, Kemba Walker and John Wall.
Los Angeles Clippers: Blake Griffin
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Blake Griffin is confirming what we knew all along: He's going to eat in Chris Paul's absence. But few could have seen him returning to the buffet line for so many second, third and seventh helpings.
Last season, in the time he spent playing without Paul, Griffin averaged 23.2 points, 9.7 rebounds and 6.4 assists on 50 percent shooting per 36 minutes. This year, with Paul in Houston, he's posting 29.4 points, 10.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists on a 50.9 percent clip per 36.
The word you're looking for is: holyhotdamn.
Early-season noise will invariably drag down Griffin's numbers. The Los Angeles Clippers have enjoyed a cupcake schedule, with wins over the Lakers and Phoenix Suns, and Griffin's job will get a heckuva lot harder with Milos Teodosic sustaining a plantar fascia injury in his left foot. But his regression might not be so stark.
DeAndre Jordan is searching for his groove in the new world order. Danilo Gallinari is shooting under 20 percent...on two-pointers. Austin Rivers looks unplayable. And with Teodosic now watching from afar, the Clippers aren't about to lean on their sole star any less.
Rival defenses will tighten up, but Griffin has discretion over his volume. He won't shoot 80-plus percent(!) on post-ups all year, but his footwork and handles slice through double-teams like butter. His 44.4 percent success rate from behind the rainbow won't hold, but he shot 37.1 percent on three-point attempts over his final 30 appearances last season. We should probably start accepting this as a thing.
Los Angeles' record near the halfway point will have a lot of say in Griffin's All-Star case. He isn't winning the fan vote, and coaches have a knack to pluck out stars from really good teams. As long as he's healthy, though, Griffin will insert himself into the frontcourt discussion.
Los Angeles Lakers: Lonzo Ball
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You're welcome, LaVar Ball.
Just to get out in front of the war-troll cries: No one should feel great about this pick. The Lakers are closer to the Bulls than not. They don't have an inarguable All-Star prospect.
Brandon Ingram is still trying to locate his "Kawhi Durant" switch. Come back banging the Kentavious Caldwell-Pope drum if he's averaging 20 points on 60 percent shooting in December. Kyle Kuzma might have better odds than Ingram at pirating obscure consideration, but that doesn't say much. Brook Lopez may get numbers; he also might see his minutes dip, or plunge, or evaporate, once the Lakers' faint playoff hopes extinguish in mid-November.
Lonzo Ball himself will need to average a triple-double on record efficiency to enter the backcourt melee. But he has to be the choice.
Big ballers could come out in full force during the fan vote and "Zaza Pachulia" young Lonzo up the ladder. And while the league's players won't follow through with similar support—Patrick Beverley sure isn't—we might find the media has more believers than scoffers.
Failing that, Lonzo's case can, and should, and must, rest on the carte blanche he's getting within the Lakers offense.
Memphis Grizzlies: Mike Conley
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Sympathy-vote projections account for roughly 30 percent of Mike Conley's case.
Marc Gasol is a more-than-acceptable choice, even if it comes at the expense of Conley. He's averaging almost 25 points per game, hitting enough of his threes to complicate defensive coverages and, most notably, crashing the glass like someone who recently realized he's 7'1".
But Big Burrito has already received three All-Star go-aheads. And he's going up against a frontcourt crop that houses budding bigs Rudy Gobert, Nikola Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns, not to mention usual suspects DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis and the newly Gregg Popovich-ified LaMarcus Aldridge.
Conley's competition remains stiff, but it doesn't feel impossibly deep. Stephen Curry and James Harden are virtual locks. Russell Westbrook could be as well, but playing with Carmelo Anthony and Paul George may stipulate sacrifices that crimp his front-runner stock.
Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are going to dimidiate each other's argument more than ever. Jimmy Butler is logging enough minutes at the 3 to vacate the backcourt ballot. (His offensive efficiency is also in the sewer.) Chris Paul will once more bow out of the sample-size royal rumble with a week- or month-long sabbatical.
Neither Conley nor Gasol will steal a starter's gig, so this should be the year coaches finally, and rightfully, cater to his snub-stuffed resume. They have that flexibility, and he remains that friggin' good.
Mark these words: Conley will recover from his statistical malaise.
He might not get back to dishing six assists per game with Mario Chalmers and Tyreke Evans cannibalizing some of his on-ball looks, but his sub-40-percent shooting won't stand. Most importantly: The Memphis Grizzlies offense continues to be a statistical poop show when he's on the bench.
Miami Heat: Hassan Whiteside
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Goran Dragic is the only realistic challenger to Hassan Whiteside's hypothetical crown. And his case looks pretty good right now with the seven-footer recovering from a bone bruise in his left knee.
Except...consider the bigger picture.
The Miami Heat have a rabble of ball-handlers. Dragic gets prioritized as the primary pilot, but the offense is more spontaneous than scripted. James Johnson is pacing the team in assists. Josh Richardson or Dion Waiters can lead the Heat in shot attempts on any given night. The same goes for Johnson.
Whiteside's role is more predictable—in a good way. Johnson and Kelly Olynyk won't bite into his pick-and-roll volume, and counting on Johnson as the squad's highest-volume shot-swatter is not a sustainable model. Olynyk is Miami's best defensive rebounder after Whiteside, which inspires little confidence.
On/off splits will forever paint Whiteside in an awkward light. But the Heat's depth has a lot do with that wonky relationship. Their bench towers over other second units, and head coach Erik Spoelstra doesn't subscribe to the idea that teams have to play their best lineups from the jump.
All-Star selections are more about box-score clout for non-point guards anyway. Ask DeMar DeRozan. Whiteside will turn in 20-point, 12-rebound, two-block outings on cruise control and, for the more nuanced, improved his mobility when defending in space last season.
Bake in the Eastern Conference's general superstar famine up front, and his path to a first-ever All-Star selection won't get more inviting than it is now.
Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo
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Giannis Antetokounmpo apparently has another level he can reach without honing a consistent jumper. Tell the elders. And warn your favorite NBA team—unless you root for the Milwaukee Bucks.
Antetokounmpo has totaled 147 points, 43 rebounds, 21 assists and nine steals through his first four games. No one since at least 1983-84 has done this before. Lower the scope to 125 points, and you get 1987-88 Larry Bird.
People are already selling tickets to Antetokounmpo's MVP rally—and they're not jumping the gun. Russell Westbrook paved the way for great players on mediocre teams to flex MVP muscles, and Antetokounmpo is playing like someone who's ready and waiting to receive the "best player" torch from LeBron James sooner rather than later.
As The Ringer's Paolo Uggetti wrote:
"At just 22 and now in his fifth season, Giannis is showing the ability to maneuver the ball like a top-tier point guard while combining his speed and athleticism to get to the rim with the ease of a superstar wing. He’s compounding it all by using his newfound strength to bully defenders inside the paint as if he’s a powerful big man. What’s even more evident early on this season is that Giannis has also developed the awareness to know when he can get by his defender—so far, it’s worked against anyone who isn’t LeBron—and the ability to hit the elbow jumper far more consistently than he had during his first four seasons."
Surrounding dynasties will crumble if Antetokounmpo ever extends his range beyond the three-point line. He won't need a supporting cast of stars to take down superteams when he's wielding every weapon known to basketball.
More terrifying than that: His outside game could fail to develop, and he still might not need that much help.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Karl-Anthony Towns
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About the Timberwolves potentially marginalizing Karl-Anthony Towns on the offensive end after the offseason's talent infusion...
It ain't happening.
Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague have, for now, incurred the largest usage hits. Towns has seen his shot attempts fall, but he's getting enough looks to clear 20 points per game for the second consecutive season.
Turn the tables, and Butler would be the surefire pick. He showed an ability to ferry entire offenses in Chicago and, unlike Towns, doesn't hemorrhage value on the defensive end. But his sub-40 shooting percentages and scoring totals desperately need a bump for him to beat out the field. He's again seeing a lion's share of his time at small forward, which pits him against Kevin Durant, Paul George, Draymond Green and Kawhi Leonard, in addition to a throng of blue-chip bigs.
Towns is still mostly a non-factor on defensive side. He continues to get caught out of position, remains indecisive on closeouts and is rivaling Andrew Wiggins for having the team's worst awareness on rotations. But he's an offensive darling.
Opposing defenders get caught off guard whenever he puts the ball on the floor, and he's making the most of the post touches the Timberwolves give him. And he'll only get better from here. His ceiling is much higher as a pick-and-roll finisher, and he won't shoot 25 percent on spot-up looks for long.
Although Butler has time to build his All-Star credentials, Towns maintains the look and feel (and production) of Minnesota's most dominant player.
New Orleans Pelicans: Anthony Davis
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DeMarcus Cousins is averaging 31.0 points, 12.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 3.3 blocks through his first four games of the season.
And he doesn't come close to leapfrogging Anthony Davis—or at least, he shouldn't.
In what's both a harbinger of the New Orleans Pelicans' shoddy depth and the 24-year-old's stake in the top-five discourse, Davis entered the team's Tuesday tilt with the Portland Trail Blazers averaging 31.7 points, 17.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.7 blocks per game. He was also shooting better than 45.5 percent from deep amid career-high volume—small-sample theatre we'd be free to trash if he didn't put down 40-plus percent of his long twos through each of the past three seasons.
Too bad the Pelicans aren't allowed to have nice things. Davis left the eventual loss to the Blazers with a left knee injury and, following an MRI that came back negative, is now day to day, according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
Instead of presuming the worst, we'll hope the powers that be aren't petty enough to rob us of much Unibrow. And if we look at the glass as half-full, we must designate him New Orleans' most likely All-Star, no matter how dominant Cousins comes off in the box score.
Prior to his injury, Davis was zooming around on defense; not one of his teammates has defended more spot-up shooters. And head coach Alvin Gentry entrusts him with more solo time. He'll get far more reps without Cousins than the latter sees without him.
Superior popularity takes care of the rest. Remove the Zaza Pachulia anomaly from the equation, and Davis finished third on the West's 2017 frontcourt ballot. And in the event his brand doesn't do enough of the heavy lifting, the many, many hats he's wearing now will do it for him.
New York Knicks: Kristaps Porzingis
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Playing without Carmelo Anthony suits Kristaps Porzingis.
The New York Knicks are just a handful of games into the unicorn-or-nothing era, so all returns come with a complementary salt dispenser, but the 22-year-old is doing work. His usage rate dwarfs those from every other starter, and he's on the (premature) track to career scoring marks.
How do you gloss over the excitement incumbent of consecutive 30-point games to open the season? How do you ignore that his efficiency from the floor isn't cratering as the alpha? How do you downplay him contesting more three-pointers than anyone in the league?
You don't.
You submit to the excitement. You hold out hope for even better efficiency. You overreact to his defensive effort despite frequently being ripped out of the paint.
New York is not a good basketball team. Far from it. And Porzingis needs some time at center to maximize his rim protection and overall value. But the Knicks aren't trying to mask his importance. Tim Hardaway Jr. isn't bilking touches that belong to him. This team is finally doing right by him as a featured option, and he's responded by being worthy of the mushrooming workload.
So much for the idiots (me) who thought he'd struggle to make a leap.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Russell Westbrook
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Russell Westbrook is doing his damnedest to make Carmelo Anthony and Paul George enjoy their time with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
From ceding shot attempts and cycling through more pass-first half-court sets to working off the ball, he's rolled out the welcoming mat. He still commits maddening turnovers and isn't above taking over down the stretch of close games, but he's playing the good little soldier.
The reigning MVP has already jacked fewer than 13 shots on two occasions—something he did four times across 81 appearances in 2016-17.
Spending last season on his own, without Kevin Durant or even another quasi-star in close proximity, may have given Westbrook fresh new perspective—a new lease on playing beside other headliners. Or maybe that experience chased the solo-act curiosity out of his system. Heck, perhaps every possession is a constant struggle in which Westbrook must actively suppress his natural instincts.
Whatever Westbrook is trying to do, it hardly weakens his All-Star credentials.
Oklahoma City's offense is a work in progress, and Westbrook has been erratic when firing off the catch. But he's oh-so-close to averaging a triple-double (19.3 points, 11.7 assists, 9.3 rebounds), and the hesitancy with which he's launching jumpers lends itself to consideration of those around him—and, thus, a reminder that the Thunder remain his team.
Orlando Magic: Nikola Vucevic
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Nikola Vucevic is averaging 23.8 points, 10.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 2.0 blocks per game on 59.7 percent shooting, including a 36.8 percent clip from distance.
Totally sustainable, right?
Fine. Maybe not. Definitely not. But the Orlando Magic have simplified the frontcourt rotation and are doing some nifty things on the offensive end to accentuate Vucevic. Unlike last year, he'll have the opportunity to stand out in a way that resonates outside Orlando.
Among the most meaningful tweaks: Vucevic's green light from long range. The Magic have him setting higher screens and popping out to the three-point line instead of rolling toward the basket or floating around no man's land.
"It gives the team a different dynamic," Terrence Ross said, per the Orlando Sentinel's Josh Robbins. "It stretches the floor and gives us space. It puts pressure on their bigs to come out [away from the hoop], so we kind of use Vooch as a major weapon to go at certain teams."
Vucevic won't swish almost 37 percent of his triples on Damian Lillard volume all year, but the mere willingness to station him so far from the basket opens up decongested pathways for everyone around him.
Orlando ranks fifth in efficiency within five feet of the hoop. That effect should hold. Vucevic has never been a knockdown three-point shooter, but he's hitting more than 44 percent of his looks between 16 feet and the arc for his career. Defenses have to respect his range even if his attempts aren't finding nylon.
Tack on elevated volume out of the pick-and-roll, plus a steady workload from the post, and Vucevic will have the usage necessary to qualify as a 1A or 1B option who hordes double-doubles. And that should be enough to put him on the peripherals of the East's All-Star pecking order.
Philadelphia 76ers: Joel Embiid
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Infinite fist bumps to Ben Simmons for making this decision a little more difficult than it should be. But Joel Embiid prevails in the end, because he's Joel Embiid, and he's doing Joel Embiid things.
Minutes restrictions and a spotty health bill tanked Embiid's All-Star eligibility last year. Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James were the only frontcourt candidates in the East to nab more fan votes, but the then-rookie didn't have the sway among players, media and coaches to punch a ticket into New Orleans' superstar exhibition.
And that was just as well, because Embiid played his last game of the season Jan. 27. He wasn't healthy enough to partake in the Rising Stars Challenge or Skills Challenge. He wouldn't have received the clearance to suit up in the Sunday showcase.
Embiid's sophomore season initially looked like it could play out in similar fashion. He logged just 30 minutes in the preseason, and the Philadelphia 76ers were angling to keep him under the 20-minutes-per-game threshold.
"That's f**king bulls**t," he said when asked about said restrictions, per The Athletic's Rich Hoffman.
Profanity-laced objections must hold weight in the Sixers organization, because Embiid is seeing more than 27 minutes per game...to go along with averages of 19.7 points, 12.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.0 block. He's coughing up the ball at an alarming rate, and his three-point clip sits below 10 percent, but Philly is outscoring opponents by nearly 10 points per 100 possessions with him in the game—by far and away the best mark on the team.
Put it this way: The Sixers fared like a postseason-bound squad with Embiid last year. They're doing the same thing this season...only he's playing more...and they might actually be a postseason-bound squad.
Joining Antetokounmpo and James in the East's starting frontcourt is on the table.
Phoenix Suns: Devin Booker
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Eric Bledsoe originally had this space, but then, in a flagrant display of disregard for my time, he either requested a trade or professed his disdain for hair salons in a tweet.
Phoenix, for the record, isn't buying the stuck-at-the-beauty-parlor excuse. "He said he was at a hair salon," general manager Ryan McDonough told assembled media, per ABC 15 Sports in Arizona. "I didn't believe that to be true. He won't be with us going forward."
Executives outside the Suns organization believe the team is dead set on moving Bledsoe, according to ESPN.com's Chris Haynes. By the time you read this, in fact, he might be in Milwaukee, throwing lobs to Giannis Antetokounmpo. Or in Denver, buddying up with Nikola Jokic. Or in New York, proving that the Knicks will never be serious about rebuilding.
Anyhow, the most "2017 trade request" ever dictates a pivot to Devin Booker.
Getting rid of Bledsoe gives Booker full control of the offense. Tyler Ulis and future league MVP rookie Mike James will get more run, but the Suns have been grooming Booker to be the primal playmaker since the middle of 2015-16. Bledsoe's excommunication expedites that transition, awarding Booker even more freedom and volume.
Like pretty much everyone else in Phoenix, the soon-to-be 21-year-old hasn't looked great to start the year. But he's been more hot-and-cold than outright terrible. His field-goal percentage is levitating right around his career average, and he'll convert more of his threes as the season goes along. The apocalypse is upon the Suns if he doesn't set a career high in the assists department.
Whether defensive metrics will continue to hate Booker is almost irrelevant. Offense sells in the All-Star forum. Bledsoe will bring the Suns a title before Booker immediately nudges his way past more established fringe candidates like Mike Conley, Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum and Klay Thompson, but hey—at least Phoenix's unenviable situation includes a potential star-in-training worth talking about.
Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard
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Damian Lillard's All-Star argument gets a boon for the same reason it may also suffer a few blows: C.J. McCollum.
Portland's backcourt duo remains the heart and soul of the offense—a weapon in concert that bends defenses with no-holds-barred shot-making and practiced balance. But McCollum could end up seizing the internal scoring crown from Lillard. Everyone should know by now how voters from all over feel about point totals.
Then again, Lillard's gracious deference is part of his charm.
He isn't a premier playmaker relative to other superstar point guards, but he has zero qualms about sharing the spotlight. He'll be content kowtowing to McCollum's surge. The Blazers' offensive structure could even be by design. Slightly lightening Lillard's workload both accommodates McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic while freeing up the point guard to invest more time and energy into rewriting his defensive reputation.
Microsample warnings and all that, but Lillard is closing out hard and averaging about as many deflections as Giannis Antetokounmpo. Fighting over screens remains an Achilles' heel, but he paces the Blazers in points saved on the defensive end, according to NBA Math.
Again: The season is young. Things can change. Regression is unavoidable. But if Lillard keeps posting more than 20 points and five assists per game while playing even close to average defense, he'll bag his third All-Star appearance.
Sacramento Kings: De'Aaron Fox
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Similar to Dennis Smith Jr.'s case in Dallas, De'Aaron Fox's inclusion is more about admitting the Sacramento Kings have a star prospect on their hands.
Putting up 15 points and five assists per game won't thrust Fox into the same stratosphere as Mike Conley and Damian Lillard, let alone Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook. And he doesn't have a (literal) love-hate brand to maybe, possibly, potentially steal a popularity contest like Lonzo Ball.
But Fox has been disarmingly good. He's shooting almost 67 percent inside the restricted area, and his 2-of-5 start from beyond arc is a nice, if immaterial, surprise. He needs to play a bit more under control when running pick-and-rolls, but the teensiest bit of daylight will end with him hotfooting his way toward the rim.
Sacramento is scoring like a top-10 offense when Fox steers the ship—an impressive feat for a rookie floor general irrespective of the sample size. He isn't starting yet, but if he keeps this up, he'll force head coach Dave Joerger's hand.
Not that it especially matters. Fox is getting more than enough playing time off the pine to garner Rookie of the Year fanfare—largely irrelevant in the All-Star ring, but worth a desultory shout-out if only to differentiate Sacramento's rebuild from Chicago's aimless venture.
San Antonio Spurs: Kawhi Leonard
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Kawhi Leonard hasn't yet played this season as he recovers from a quadriceps injury. The Spurs haven't offered a definitive timetable for his return, because they're the Spurs. They don't believe in unconditional transparency and, following a perfect start to the season, have no reason to rush him back into the rotation.
Miss another 10 or 12 games, and Leonard's All-Star case takes an unassailable hit. He may not have enough time to woo voters from every category when guys like Jimmy Butler, Kevin Durant and Paul George presumably aren't registering as many absences.
For now, the pick remains Leonard. The season isn't old enough for an about-face, and Leonard, like his esteemed franchise, has earned the benefit of the doubt.
Besides, who has the time to pick between LaMarcus Aldridge and Dejounte Murray?
Assuming he re-enters the fold in a timely manner, Leonard seems primed for another career year. He became the Spurs' system last season. They went from scoring a team-best 112.6 points per 100 possessions with him on the court to a roster-worst 102.6 when he sat—akin to falling from second to 26th on the offensive efficiency scale.
San Antonio won't move away from its dependence just because Aldridge is once again a genuine focal point or because Murray looks comfortable beyond his years. A healthy Leonard will need to score around 25 points per game, set a career high in assists and keep up his Defensive Player of the Year candidacy.
Diluted down even further: Top-five players who don't call the Bay Area home are always their team's most likely All-Star participant.
Toronto Raptors: DeMar DeRozan
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Woo boy, this decision was tougher than the great Stephen Curry vs. Kevin Durant debate.
Kyle Lowry is the Toronto Raptors' most valuable player until proven otherwise. His ice-cold shooting out of the gate will give way to hotter stretches, and DeMar DeRozan hasn't seen enough time without him this year to place much stock in his solo stints.
But "most valuable" doesn't always translate to "most likely All-Star." It sure didn't last season. DeRozan skated into New Orleans as a starter, while Lowry earned reserve duty. The former's craftiness off the dribble coupled with team-leading point totals is more conducive to All-Star popularity.
That won't change this season. If anything, the gap between the two in this discussion will grow as DeRozan places an increased emphasis on passing the rock.
"I really want to lead the team in assists," he told The Athletic's Eric Koreen.
Unrealistic? Most definitely. But DeRozan is averaging more assists per 36 minutes than ever. He'll set a new per-game best if head coach Dwane Casey doesn't monitor his minutes like a hawk.
Combine that with a fifth straight season of averaging more than 20 points, along with the hope he can anchor productive Lowry-less units, and DeRozan takes this running away.
Utah Jazz: Rudy Gobert
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Rudy Gobert ranked among the biggest snubs from last season's All-Star Game, and the stage is now set for him to get over the hump.
Gordon Hayward's exit renders him the unchallenged face of the Utah Jazz. The absence of a heralded go-to scorer also assures him of a broader offensive role. His shot distribution won't change much, but he'll get more looks overall.
If Gobert doesn't set career highs in usage and scoring, something's gone terribly awry. Well that, or Donovan Mitchell will have won Rookie of the Year in a landslide, Rodney Hood will have snagged Most Improved Player honors and Ricky Rubio will have snatched more MVP votes than James Harden.
Oh, and then, of course, we have the Jazz's defense. They'll finish in the top five of points allowed per 100 possessions if Gobert stays healthy.
"Utah's 7-foot-1 center is among the handful of guys who can truly change the game defensively," ESPN.com's Kevin Arnovitz wrote. "His defensive efficiency rating in 100.6 ranked second in the league to Draymond Green, and the Jazz have clocked in at seventh and third in opponents points per possession since he assumed the starting center role."
Elite defenses have a way of sticking in the playoff conversation. Look at basically every Grizzlies team since 2010. If Gobert props up another top-five unit, and the postseason hopes that come with it, he'll have the statistical and anecdotal oomph to make the transition from lamentable snub to official All-Star.
Washington Wizards: John Wall
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John Wall no doubt approves of this decision.
"I'm the best two-way point guard...in the league," he said in September during an episode of BallIsLife's No Off Season (h/t CSN Mid-Atlantic).
"Last year, everybody said it was a career year [for me]," he explained ahead of opening night, via the Washington Post's Candace Buckner, "but I think I'm going to have an even more crazy career year than last year."
"I think I'm the best shot-blocking point guard in NBA history," he told reporters after Friday's victory over Detroit, per NBC Sports Washington's Chase Hughes. "I'm trying to set records."
Wall, as you can see, talks a big game. But he backs it up.
Even as his shooting percentages slumped to begin 2017-18, Wall looks like another 20-point, 10-assist formality. He has tightened his pick-and-roll defense and is deflecting more passes (for the time being). He could enjoy zero improvement from last season, or even incur some regression, and he'd still be in the discussion for the Eastern Conference's best guard.
Make good on his promise to deliver "an even more crazy career year," and Wall won't just earn himself a fifth All-Star berth.
He'll find himself in the mix for MVP fame.
Statistics courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.
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