NBA Playoffs 2018: 1st-Round Bracket Predictions and Odds for All 16 Teams
What a wild ride that was. It came down to the final night of the season, but we finally know all 16 NBA playoff teams, as well as who and where they'll play. The 2017-18 regular season is officially a wrap.
In this league, though, that means the fun is just getting started. Months of playoff basketball are ahead of us, and the first round is loaded with intriguing matchups.
All eight will be included here, complete with predictions and Vegas odds.
First, the odds, courtesy of OddsShark:
Eastern Conference
No. 1 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 8 Washington Wizards
The Toronto Raptors enter this season's playoffs with the NBA's toughest bench, two stars in the backcourt and a battering ram inside. They're every bit the 59 wins they put up in the regular season.
And while the Washington Wizards have plenty of talent of their own, they have little chance in overcoming Toronto's depth four times in seven games.
Perhaps arbitrarily, we'll designate leading scorers DeMar DeRozan and Bradley Beal as the representatives of each side's starting five.
When DeRozan's on the floor, Toronto outscores opponents by 6.8 points per 100 possessions, per the NBA. When he's off, the Raptors outscore opponents by 9.2 points. Those same numbers for Bradley Beal are 2.3 when he's on and minus-4.1 when he's off.
Even if John Wall can somehow find his old self in this series, the behemoth that is Toronto's bench, led by Fred VanVleet, Jakob Poeltl, Delon Wright and Pascal Siakam, just has too much talent.
Prediction: Raptors in 6
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Milwaukee Bucks
This one's a tough call—perhaps the toughest in the East. The Boston Celtics are beyond banged-up. Among those out are leading scorer Kyrie Irving, defensive fixture Daniel Theis and backup Swiss Army knife Marcus Smart.
What's left is a seemingly ragtag collection of players, led by the perennially underrated Al Horford, sophomore Jaylen Brown and rookie Jayson Tatum.
But if there was an award for the NBA's most confusing, unpredictable or just flat-out disappointing team, it might be the Milwaukee Bucks.
They seemed to be trending up with a 9-2 stretch after the Jason Kidd firing, but they're 12-14 since then. And even though they've had the best player on the floor for much of those 26 games, their defense has been dreadful.
Since February 14 (when the 12-14 stretch started), Milwaukee's allowing 110.3 points per 100 possessions, per the NBA, good for 24th in the league.
And Boston's post-Kyrie approach looks ready to exploit that. Marcus Morris, Brown and Tatum are all averaging at least 16.9 points since Irving left the rotation with an injury, and all three have a 57-plus true shooting percentage.
Prediction: Celtics in 7
No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 6 Miami Heat
"Unlikely, but there's still a chance."
That's what Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid said about the possibility of playing in Game 1, per Derek Bodner of The Athletic. And if he is ready to go right off the bat, it's hard to imagine this series going long.
Philadelphia has this season's best five-man lineup. When Embiid plays with fellow starters Ben Simmons, J.J. Redick, Robert Covington and Dario Saric, the Sixers are plus-268 in 600 minutes. The closest lineup in raw plus-minus is nearly 100 points behind in roughly double the minutes.
Simply put, when Philly's healthy and has its first five on the floor, it's a basketball nightmare.
Miami is well-coached and has its own bunch of solid players. But the talent gap at the top should be insurmountable. There'll be plenty of chatter between Embiid and Hassan Whiteside, but the actual game shouldn't be terribly competitive. Simmons has a clear edge over Goran Dragic as well.
Prediction: 76ers in 5
No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Indiana Pacers
After the trade deadline, LeBron James averaged 29.4 points (on 53.9 percent from the field and 37.8 percent from three), 9.8 rebounds, 9.5 assists, two threes and 1.2 steals.
And let's assume "Playoff LeBron" is still on the way. If that's the case, this should be a pretty short series for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Indiana Pacers were a nice story. Victor Oladipo is a bona fide star, maybe even an All-NBA player. And right now, it looks like he and Domantas Sabonis have made that Paul George trade a win for Indy.
But drawing the Cavs in the first round feels like the end.
Prediction: Cavaliers in 4
Western Conference
No. 1 Houston Rockets vs. No. 8 Minnesota Timberwolves
The Minnesota Timberwolves needed all 82 to squeeze into the postseason. And Wednesday's 112-106 win over the Denver Nuggets secured their date with the top-seeded Houston Rockets.
But it's tough to imagine the magic carrying on too far beyond that.
Houston is a legitimate juggernaut. Basketball Reference's Simple Rating System comfortably ranks the Rockets as the best team in the league and the 19th-best in NBA history.
James Harden looks like a runaway for MVP, and Houston outscores opponents by an absurd 13.6 points per 100 possessions when he shares the floor with Chris Paul.
Even with one of NBA's best duos—Jimmy Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns—Minnesota just doesn't have enough beyond that top two to keep pace with high-powered Houston.
Prediction: Rockets in 5
No. 2 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 7 San Antonio Spurs
Stephen Curry won't play in the first round for the Golden State Warriors—and that should concern Warriors fans.
According to the NBA's Player Impact Tool, Golden State was plus-12 in the 1,098 minutes Kevin Durant played without Curry (plus-0.5 per 48 minutes). It was plus-150 in the 404 minutes Curry played without Durant (plus-17.8 per 48 minutes).
This is Curry's team and it's nowhere near as good without him.
With all due respect to LaMarcus Aldridge, who's been a monster this season, the Spurs won't have their superstar, either. And without Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio's ceiling is already closing in on this team.
Prediction: Warriors in 6
No. 3 Portland Trail Blazers vs. No. 6 New Orleans Pelicans
The Portland Trail Blazers finishing third in the West has to be near the top of the list of this season's surprises, but maybe we should've seen it coming.
Damian Lillard has been on the fringe of superstardom for a couple years. He was bound to break through at some point. And this season, he did.
Lillard averaged 26.8 points, 6.5 assists and 3.1 threes, and he has a strong case to line up next to Harden as a First-Team All-NBA guard.
And he's had plenty of help from C.J. McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic and Shabazz Napier on the way to this position.
Anthony Davis has had an MVP-caliber season (though he's not likely to sniff the actual award), but once you get down to the fourth, third, or maybe second matchups, Portland takes over.
The fact that the Blazers have one of the best home-court advantages in the league won't hurt them either.
Prediction: Blazers in 6
No. 4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 5 Utah Jazz
There are plenty of jokes and takes out there about Russell Westbrook being a stat-chaser who collects his triple-doubles at the expense of the team. But let's be honest, averaging over 25 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists in each of two consecutive seasons is mind-boggling.
Westbrook is a force of nature, and the Utah Jazz have nothing (at least not on the perimeter) to slow him down.
They can hope Rudy Gobert will be able to stonewall the Westbrook drives, but he'll have open shooters in Paul George and Carmelo Anthony to kick out to all series.
And Gobert can struggle at times with physical matchups. It doesn't get much more physical than Steven Adams.
Add that to the fact Utah's No. 1 option is a rookie, and there are just too many question marks surrounding the Jazz.
Yes, that team has been absurd since the end of January, but playoff experience (or lack thereof) should catch up to them here.
Prediction: Thunder in 7
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