Taking an Early Look at 2016 Philadelphia Eagles' Salary-Cap Situation

The 2015 season hasn’t even started yet, but it’s not too soon to look ahead at the Philadelphia Eagles’ salary-cap situation for the 2016 campaign.

Chip Kelly’s offseason moves this spring will play a major factor in the team’s financial flexibility heading forward, as he’s dished out several major contracts yet passed on re-signing notable star defensive players entering the final year of their rookie deals.

What happens in ’15 with the quarterback situation will play the largest role in the salary-cap situation. As the Seattle Seahawks have seen with Russell Wilson, not having to pay top dollar for a quarterback frees up money for other players. That’s enabled Seattle to extend Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Marshawn Lynch, to name a few, and still remain under the salary cap.

Likewise, the Baltimore Ravens saw the effect of Joe Flacco’s post-Super Bowl $127 million deal; the organization has had to let a slew of veteran playmakers walk recently in Anquan Boldin, Michael Oher, Ed Reed and Torrey Smith.

So the state of the quarterback situation will play a major impact in Philly, as Kelly will have to decide whether he’s rolling with Sam Bradford in 2016 on a brand-new long-term deal or whether he’s going with a new draft pick at the position.

Then again, there will be more money for NFL teams to spend. The current salary cap jumped to $143 million for the ’15 season; per Pro Football Talk, it could rise to $160 million by ’16. That’s a significant increase, and it will make budgeting much easier for NFL general managers and owners.

For now, let’s take a look at the current Eagles players under contract for the 2016 season, sorted in order from most expensive cap hit to least expensive.

Contract figures are courtesy of Spotrac.com.

Previewing the Contracts of the Current 2016 Eagles Roster

(I did not include all 90 players on the roster; those who are currently undrafted rookie free agents or were on the practice squad last year are not factored in.)

The list below shows the 10 most expensive 2016 cap hits, but all Eagles players except for the aforementioned list are included.

Credit: Spotrac.com

Updated Total: $129,576,459

Will Sam Bradford be back?

For the sake of this article, let’s say Sam Bradford plays well in 2015 and comes back on a cap-friendly but still long-term extension. After all, Chip Kelly has raved about Bradford’s abilities in interviews at the NFL meetings and with NFL Network, and he did trade a 2016 second-round draft pick to acquire the former Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall selection.

That suggests Kelly believes Bradford can be his guy, and there’s no Marcus Mariota in the picture now.

The going rate for quarterbacks receiving long-term contract extensions is $15-plus million per season. Eleven of the league’s starting quarterbacks count for at least $15 million against the cap in ’15, and half are earning at least Bradford’s $12.9 million hit.

Let’s say Bradford earns the same in 2016 as he will in 2015, so that’s another $13 million or so against the Eagles’ cap. That takes Philadelphia’s spending even closer to the cap.

Updated Total: $142,561,459

Which players will be veteran cuts?

Don’t forget that not every player scheduled to be on the 2016 roster will actually be on the 53-man squad.

Riley Cooper, for instance, can be easily released following the ’15 season, and barring a shocking resurgence of his abilities, he will be a veteran release. That saves the Eagles an additional $2.9 million against the ’16 cap.

Considering Chip Kelly has shopped All-Pro guard Evan Mathis the last two seasons, per NFL Media's Aditi Kinkhabwala—and Mathis is the NFL’s oldest starting offensive lineman—it’s difficult to see him returning after 2015. The Eagles won’t likely find a willing trade partner given Mathis’ $7 million cap hit, and an outright release saves Philadelphia $6 million in cap space.

Veteran tight end Brent Celek is a candidate for the Eagles to release, considering his role in the offense has diminished and he will be scheduled to earn $5 million against the cap. For now, though, he stays, given that Kelly is a huge fan.

Updated Total: $133,661,459

What about Fletcher Cox and Mychal Kendricks?

Fletcher Cox and Mychal Kendricks were the Philadelphia Eagles’ top two draft picks in 2012, and they’re both top defensive players. Cox broke out in a big way last year, dominating opposing NFC offensive lines and establishing himself as one of the more unblockable linemen in the league.

NFL.com's Ian Rapoport reported the Eagles shopped Cox in a mega-package for Marcus Mariota, although, per Pro Football Talk's Josh Alper, Chip Kelly denied the rumor.

Kelly seems to be getting rid of every player left from the Andy Reid days, but getting rid of a defensive superstar of Cox’s abilities would be downright foolish.

Let’s assume Cox stays—after all, the Eagles did pick up his ’16 option—and that he gets a huge contract extension he will deserve. The top defensive ends earn $10-plus million per year, and that’s a fair contract projection for Cox. Should Cox receive that extension, let’s pencil in $8 million for that first year and expect it to rise going forward.

Kendricks is a different story. He was also reportedly in that Mariota trade package offer, but unlike Cox, it doesn’t seem likely that Kendricks will return in 2016. His four-year rookie deal takes him one more year with the Eagles, but like teammate Brandon Boykin, Kendricks is already said to be on the trade block, per Rapoport.

Factor in that Kelly did not draft Kendricks, traded for former Oregon Duck Kiko Alonso and drafted Texas’ Jordan Hicks in the third round, and it’s likely the writing is on the wall in terms of Kendricks’ Eagles career. He’s not factored into the team’s 2016 salary-cap projection.

Updated Total: $141,661,459

Will any current Eagles receive contract extensions soon?

Under the NFL’s new collective bargaining agreement, rookies sign four-year deals (with a fifth-year option) and are eligible to receive contract extensions after three seasons.

The Philadelphia Eagles’ 2013 draft class will be up for extensions next offseason. First-round pick Lane Johnson and second-rounder Zach Ertz are prime candidates to receive long-term deals.

Johnson was Chip Kelly’s first-ever draft pick. He’s arguably the top right tackle in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus, and the eventual heir apparent to Jason Peters on the blind side.

Expect Johnson to receive a long-term deal that places him among the top 10 highest-paid left tackles in the game; that’s about $9 million per year, an increase from the $6.1 million he’s currently slated to earn in ’16.

Ertz hasn’t quite taken that next step, but he’s still probably a top-10 to top-12 tight end in the game. There’s a better chance the Eagles let him play out his final season than Johnson, but even so, it’s probable he gets a long-term deal that pays around $7-8 million per year. That would be an increase of about $5 million over what Ertz is currently slated to earn in ’16.

Third-round pick Bennie Logan is a solid player and key cog in the run defense, but it’s likely he will play out his rookie deal before receiving a long-term deal.

Defensive end Cedric Thornton was a restricted free agent this past offseason and signed a one-year, $2.36 million deal. He’s a good player who should receive a multiyear contract worth $4 million or so per season. That’s another $1-2 million against the Eagles’ 2016 cap.

Kiko Alonso was a 2013 second-round pick of the Buffalo Bills, and he will be a restricted free agent (instead of unrestricted) after ’16 because he missed last season with an injury. He could theoretically be locked up long-term after next year, but given his injury history, the Eagles would be wise to wait before paying him.

Updated Total: $150,061,459

What other Eagles free-agents-to-be likely won’t be back in 2016?

What about the rest of the 2012 Philadelphia Eagles draft class and other players on the team set to hit free agency?

Vinny Curry was a second-round pick who played especially well last year as a situational pass-rusher. He may be back in 2016, but it’s more likely he goes to a team that utilizes a 4-3 defense. Fourth-round pick Brandon Boykin is a terrific nickel cornerback, but the coaching staff doesn’t seem to like him. It’s doubtful he’s back after 2015. In fact, he may not be on the roster next year.

Nolan Carroll is a free agent, but it’s doubtful Philly re-signs him. The same goes for players such as Tim Tebow and Miles Austin.

This doesn’t change the cap space.

Updated Total: $150,061,459

What about the 2016 rookie draft class?

In the new CBA, the average rookie class will take about $5 million of a team’s salary cap, although it depends largely on where the team picks in the draft.

The Philadelphia Eagles have won 10 games each of the last two seasons. Let’s say they do that again and pick in the low 20s. That will count for about another $5 million against the cap.

Updated Total: $155,061,459

Remaining Cap Space

Given all the factors, that will likely leave about $5 million in cap space for Chip Kelly. That’s not a lot of money to work with, especially if he wants to make a run at a big-name free agent, such as Dez Bryant or Demaryius Thomas, or even sign a mid-level defensive back to beef up what could be a below-average secondary.

Then again, all these numbers could easily change. Maybe Kelly won’t want to bring back Bradford, instead choosing to draft a rookie signal-caller. That could free up close to $10 million in cap space. He could choose to make Jason Peters an early veteran release. He could restructure Brent Celek’s deal or even Byron Maxwell’s contract. Or Kelly could do what he does and simply shock us all.

So here’s simply an early look at what could be a fairly tight cap situation for the ’16 Eagles.

Cash to Spend: $4,939,541