Philadelphia Eagles: Projecting Fletcher Cox's Upcoming Contract Extension

Extending defensive end Fletcher Cox should be one of the Philadelphia Eagles' top priorities this offseason.

While Cox doesn't officially hit free agency until after 2015, there's no reason for the organization to wait in locking him up to a long-term deal. The 2012 first-round pick was a productive player as a rookie 3-technique defensive tackle and then as a 5-technique end in coordinator Billy Davis' scheme change.

This year, Cox broke out and established himself as one of the NFL's elite defensive players. The raw statistics—four sacks, three fumble recoveries, a forced fumble, 48 tackles and a touchdown—don't do him justice. Cox thrived as a two-gap defensive end, a thankless job that requires taking on blockers so the pass-rushing linebackers (like Connor Barwin and his career-high 14 sacks) can get the glory.

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Fletcher Cox plows through a double team for the pressure. Why isn't he in the Pro Bowl again? #Eagleshttps://t.co/LIrGztgIf9

— Pete Damilatis (@PFF_Pete) December 31, 2014

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Pro Football Focus heaped Cox with praise all season, rating just eight defensive players in the whole league higher than him in terms of production. At just 24 years old, Cox has been extremely durable (starting 47 of 48 games). He's played in two vastly different defensive formations, excelling in both. And he's arguably the most important player on this Eagles defense going forward.

Projecting what kind of a contract extension Cox will get requires looking at the other 3-4 ends around the league to see how Cox compares. For the sake of this comparison, we'll leave J.J. Watt out; it's no knock against Cox that he just isn't quite in the league of this generation's Lawrence Taylor (at least not yet).

Aside from Watt's $100 million contract, five active 3-4 defensive ends in the NFL have signed $30-plus million deals. Here's a comparison of Cox against those five right before they signed their long-term deals.

Name	Contract	Avg Salary	Year	Age	PFF Rating	Snaps	Tackles	Sacks	Total Pressures
Fletcher Cox	---	---	2014	24	+30.5	962	50	4	48
Haloti Ngata	4-$48M	$12M	2011	28	+5.7	832	35	5	26
Calais Campbell	5-$55M	$11M	2011	25	+22.7	1032	55	9	47
Jurrell Casey	4-$36M	$9M	2013	24	+28.2	891	37	11	54
Darnell Dockett	4-$35M	$8.8M	2009	29	-9.7	860	34	7	38
Desmond Bryant	5-$34M	$6.8M	2012	27	+10.5	645	19	4	35

*Note: Not all the players were 3-4 defensive ends at the time of their extension but have since moved to that role. Year listed is prior year played before signing new contract.

Cox rates very well against those players. He’s significantly better than Desmond Bryant or Darnell Dockett. Haloti Ngata did his work as a defensive tackle (often lining up directly over the center), which may make it more impressive.

Cox’s biggest competition is either Jurrell Casey or Calais Campbell. He’s not quite the athletic freak the 6’8” Campbell is, but he’s every bit the player Casey is, and Casey is an All-Pro talent. Cox’s age suggests he’ll be compensated very well. Theoretically, the Eagles could always wait until after 2015 and let Cox test the free-agent market, but there’s no logical reason to do that with a player of Cox’s talent.

Cox's agent will likely use what Muhammad Wilkerson gets this offseason as leverage for Cox's extension; likewise, Cox will help set the bar for Sheldon Richardson's upcoming mega-deal. Expect Cox’s contract to exceed that of Casey and push what Campbell got in terms of both total value and average annual salary.

The Eagles are thrifty in how they work with their players; former general manager and current executive vice president of football operations Howie Roseman has frequently negotiated team-friendly deals so expect the same with Cox.

Projection: Six Years, $49 Million, $20 Million Guaranteed